{"id":10569,"date":"2024-12-31T15:25:44","date_gmt":"2024-12-31T15:25:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/?p=10569"},"modified":"2025-01-02T00:56:17","modified_gmt":"2025-01-02T00:56:17","slug":"lets-bee-gin-the-new-year-with-a-win","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/?p=10569","title":{"rendered":"Let\u2019s Bee-gin the New Year with a Win!"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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New Year\u2019s Day sees us playing \u2018Tail End Charlies\u2019 for the second week in succession when we make the short trip to Brentford\u2019s Gtech Community Stadium for an evening kick-off after everyone else has played their week 19 fixture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A visit to Brentwood evokes the memory of their first home Premier League game on Friday the 13th 2021. That was their first top flight game since their 0-1 defeat to Arsenal at Griffen Park on 26th May 1947, their first ever capacity crowd in their new stadium and the much-hyped (at least by the broadcasters), opening match of the 2021-22 season. The home crowd was understandably febrile and the ground was rocking. Unfortunately, Arteta had to field a patched up side due to the absence of both Lafayette and Aubameyang and gave PL debuts to Benjamin White and Sambi Lokonga. Leno was glove butler, Mari played right back and Chambers joined White at centre back with Tierney at left back. The midfield comprised ESR, Xhaka and Sambi Lokonga and the attack, P\u00e9p\u00e9, Balogun and Martinelli. The game took a familiar course to any Gooner who had been watching the team since the mid-noughties. We dominated possession and territory early in the first half but failed to score and were very susceptible to Brentford breakaways. After several near things we went 1-0 down midway through the first half. Having failed to create any clear chances in the first half we came close several times early in the second half with ESR to the fore but a combination of near misses and David Raya kept us out. Then, out of nowhere, Brentford scored a second from a poorly managed long throw. We kept up the pressure, came close again but Raya frustrated us. Brentford won 2-0 and the crowd were delirious. So were Sky\u2019s di-gnomic duo Neville and Carragher whose masks slipped as they jubilantly celebrated Arsenal\u2019s defeat – none of the usual hypocritical faint praise or feigned concern – they simply joined the Brentford fans\u2019 celebrations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That 2021 game provides a lesson. As Mike McDonald observed after the Ipswich game, the reason that game was terrible to watch was the control that we exerted both in and out of possession, a phenomenon he terms \u2018football strangulation\u2019. Our work off the ball ensured that Ipswich had barely any chances (and no shots on goal) because when we conceded possession – a rare event in the first half – we almost invariably snuffed their offensive transitions out within seconds. As many observed, that game yielded an essential three points but watching it was difficult. That negative emotional response was largely due to our missed chances leaving us with a solitary 1-0 lead that resulted in a tense last ten minutes when Ipswich finally tried to \u2018have a go\u2019. This revived those deep scars we all bear from the many past games that we dominated but in which we got suckered by a breakaway goal.  Check out Gunnerstown<\/a> for Mike\u2019s detailed analysis of how we managed that \u2018no risk\u2019 game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, we have an otherwise excellent record against Brentford since their return to the top tier. In the six games since that defeat, we have won five and drawn one. We have won all three away games, once 3-0 and twice 1-0, including a League Cup tie in 2023. Our record at the Grove is two wins, both 2-1 and a 1-1 draw.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We can expect Brentford to deploy similar low block tactics to those of Everton and Ipswich when Arsenal are in possession. It\u2019s their usual modus operandi <\/em>against top teams and they are pretty good at it. However we should also expect a more front-footed approach than we saw from Ipswich. When we lose possession they will deploy rapid attacks involving Mbuemo, Wissa and Schade supported by Damsgaard, Norgaard and the wing backs. Against teams like Arsenal, Thomas Frank often plays 3 at the back with 2 mobile wing backs and 4 in central midfield – 2 holding, 2 attacking – to congest the centre of the pitch and gain numerical advantage. This facilitates a high press in defensive transition, whilst In possession they use their numerical advantage to build through the middle. Their formation is very fluid and they adapt to both the opposition and the phase of play, swinging between 3-2-5 in possession, with a high back-line and focused overloads in the channels between opposition centre backs and fullbacks, to 5-3-2 in a low block with a compact centre forcing the opposition wide. They will often have ten men behind the ball, squeezing the pitch by pushing up when the opponent plays a sideways pass or a back pass. The keeper frequently goes long to their forward(s) and they employ similar tactics to Arsenal at corners with tall players grouped beyond the far post moving into the 6-yard box towards the near post as the kick is taken. We should expect to face a high press when we play out from the back and man to man marking in midfield as they aim to regain possession high up the pitch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brentford sit in 12th place, level on 24 points with the shower up the road but with an inferior goal difference of 0. They have scored and conceded 32 goals in 18 games. Although still winless on the road, at the Gtech they have garnered 22 points – a joint highest home points harvest along with Liverpool – scoring a PL high of 26 goals in the process. Yet they have failed to keep a clean sheet at home all season. They drew their last game away against Brighton 0-0, and have lost three and won one of the preceding four games. They surprisingly lost their last home game 0-2 to Forest, the only side to win away at the Gtech this season to date, but they won the previous home fixture handsomely against Newcastle, 4-2. In their last game against Brighton, three Brentford players had to go off injured: Mee is reported to be unfit for this match, Flecken is expected to recover from his knock and Norgaard is fine. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Valdimarsson will replace Flekken, if the latter fails a late fitness test, and he apparently performed well against Brighton; van den Berg and Jensen are fit again and return to the squad and the former is likely to replace Mee at centre back. Collins, Roerslev and Lewis-Potter are also likely to figure defensively whilst Janelt, Norgaard, Damsgaard, Schade and Mbuemo will congest the midfield and be ready to support Wissa in attack. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What of the Arsenal? Whilst Sterling is apparently recovering from his knee injury faster than initially anticipated, this game comes too soon for him, as it does for long-term absentees White and Tomiyasu. In the absence of news of additional injuries from the last game it seems that our squad will be the same as was available for Ipswich. However, I expect a different starting XI. In that game, despite starting every available first team forward, we came up with a single goal and away from home against a more ambitious opponent, we need to be prepared for a midfield scrap so I expect to see Thomas Partey return to his usual position (though there is a risk that rotation for Timber might see him deployed as an inverted right back but to the detriment of the right sided threat). I expect Trossard to be the man dropped to allow Partey to return to his holding role and Rice to move forward to the \u2018left eight\u2019. There\u2019s a chance that Calafiori will start in place of MLS though I would let the youngster retain his place despite our bench being stacked with left backs. David Raya will start his first game against Brentford since he was at Blackburn. I expect Arteta to keep faith with Jes\u00f9s in the hope that he will continue his rich vein of form but predominantly in a wide position with Havertz in the centre and Martinelli as the other wide man but with multiple interchange of position between the front three.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, I expect the following starting XI:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Raya;<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, MLS;<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00d8degaard, Partey, Rice;<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jes\u00f9s, Havertz, Martinelli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is yet another \u2018must win game\u2019 as we must keep pace with the league-leaders, Liverpool, who currently sit 9 points ahead with the same number of games played. We cannot allow that points gap to widen, especially as their next fixture is a gimme against a pretty hopeless Manchester United. History and form suggest a tight, low-scoring contest and I expect a good ol\u2019 1-0 to the Arsenal, enervating though that will be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Holic Pound, I hear you ask. Arsenal are the bookies\u2019 favourites to win, at 9\/20 with the draw at 41\/10. You can have 1-0 to the Arsenal at 9\/1 or 2-1 to the Arsenal at a slightly shorter 17\/2. The bookies\u2019 shortest odds are 15\/2 on 2-0 to the Arsenal. Take your pick. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have to win and I expect a rollercoaster. Enjoy the game, Holics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ll take this opportunity to wish Gooners everywhere a happy, healthy and peaceful 2025 with some silverware to admire come May. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019d also like to thank all our readers and especially to thank the Holics who contribute to this site in multiple ways and without whose commitment this fine memorial to Dave Faber and the global community he built would not exist as an oasis of common sense in this crazy world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sl\u00e1inte mhath!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

New Year\u2019s Day sees us playing \u2018Tail End Charlies\u2019 for the second week in succession when we make the short trip to Brentford\u2019s Gtech Community Stadium for an evening kick-off after everyone else has played their week 19 fixture. A visit to Brentwood evokes the memory of their first home Premier League game on Friday […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10569"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10569"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10569\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10587,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10569\/revisions\/10587"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10569"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10569"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10569"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}