{"id":10862,"date":"2025-02-25T20:21:46","date_gmt":"2025-02-25T20:21:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/?p=10862"},"modified":"2025-02-26T22:42:32","modified_gmt":"2025-02-26T22:42:32","slug":"tricky-trees-to-be-taken-down","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/?p=10862","title":{"rendered":"Tricky Trees to be Taken Down"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

And so to the City Ground, Nottingham, to take on Nuno Esp\u00edrito Santo’s Forest on Wednesday evening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our hosts are the second-oldest club in the Football League. They ascended to the status of the oldest when Notts County dropped into non-league football between 2019 and 2023, and Stoke City’s claims were debunked. Forest’s origin story dates to 1865. A group of shinty players met in a pub in the city and elected to form a football team. I suspect that, as with the founders of many Victorian football teams, they also were cricketers looking to augment their off-season exercise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shinty is similar to (field) hockey and shares hurling’s Celtic roots. These days, the game survives mainly in the Scottish Highlands and pockets of South Wales, where it is known as bando. In the Victorian era, it was played across England. Its winter variant, played on ice, called bandy, was particularly popular in the East Midlands, with ample flat marsh meadow and fen to freeze over. The sporting goods company, Gray’s, has a Victorian bandy stick whose handle is wrapped in rope, which doubled as a hand grip and for rescuing the player if the ice gave way beneath them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forest’s original name was the Nottingham Forest Foot-Ball and Bandy Club. It also had a baseball nine, the game being widespread across the East Midlands and North of England in Victorian times, as we discussed in the Preston North End league cup preview<\/a> earlier this season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

With Notts County’s moniker yet to be set in stone \u2014 it was variously referred to as the Nottinghamshire, Nottingham and Notts Football Club \u2014 Forest named themselves after the Forest Cricket Ground where they played (adding to the suspicion that they were also cricketers).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This was part of the Forest Recreation Ground, open parkland to the north of the city centre, uses in past times ranging from pedestrianism to horse racing. It derived its name from its historical location at the southern edge of Sherwood Forest. An early nickname for the club, which favoured the Scottish passing game over kick and rush, was the Tricky Trees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In February 1866, Forest advertised in the local paper for players for pick-up games between its members\u2014a common practice when there were few other clubs to play against. For example, a couple of months earlier, Notts had pitted a team of its lighter members against the heavier ones. For the record, it was a draw.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Notts were Forest’s first inter-club opponents. The match, played at the Forest Rec in March, was overshadowed by the much-anticipated visit of the Sheffield club to play Notts in what was then still a rarity: a match between the leading clubs of different cities. Lost in all the excitement, Notts’ game with Forest seemingly went unreported in the local prints. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the late April return match at Notts’ Meadows cricket ground warranted a small paragraph in the Nottingham Journal. The game ended in a 1-1 draw, although, with the cricket season started, Notts were missing some of its better-known cricketers, including scions of the Daft, Parr and Shaw families.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Opposition<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nuno’s Forest side bears a striking resemblance in one notable aspect to Brian Clough’s Forest sides that won back-to-back European Cups in 1979 and 1980. The defenders defend, and the attackers attack — and no fluid triangles, boxes, or other Euclidian constructions, inversions or automatisms meld the two units. You can just hear Cloughie saying in that distinctive voice, ‘We don’t do **lingering stress on the ‘do’** positional play at this club, son’.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cloughie once told his centre-half, Larry Lloyd, ‘Hey, big head. Just win the ball and then give it to someone who can play.’ Similarly, Nuno wants his defence to get the ball to the attacking midfielders as quickly as possible and for them to run straight at the opposition and play in the striker. Nuno sets up on paper in a 4-2-3-1, but in practice, it is more a 4-2 and a 3-1. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is evidenced by Forest having the joint lowest share of possession in the Premier League, 40% on average. There are no horseshoes of ennui to keep possession, no high defensive lines for recycling the ball or complex build-ups from the back. Forest also has the lowest number of attempted and completed passes in the PL. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet, when one looks at the defensive stats, Forest’s numbers are those of a team near the top of the table. Only ourselves and ‘Pool have conceded fewer goals. No side has kept more clean sheets or made fewer defensive errors. Few sides have been as good at keeping opponents to low-value shots.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This last line of defence is the ever-present Belgian glove butler, the lanky Matt Sels. He leads David Raya and Everton’s Jordon Pickford in the race for the Golden Glove. Bought from Strasburg a year ago for less than \u00a37 million, he looks like a bigger bargain with the passing of every day. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The young Brazilian Murillo, who is having a breakout season, and the 6’5″ Serbian international Nikola Milenkovic are the bedrock of Forest’s defence, with fellow centre-backs Morato and Wilfred Boly providing more than adequate cover. They can also be deployed as the third centre-back if Nuno decides to go full Graham Potter and use a back three, as he did against Bournemouth and Fulham. However, he had reverted to a four before the end of the loss at Fulham.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The young Welsh international Neco Williams and equally young Nigerian international Ola Aina currently occupy the full-back berths, with the veteran Spaniard \u00c1lex Moreno, on loan from Aston Villa, as cover.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Elliot Anderson, signed from Newcastle at the start of the season for \u00a334 million, screens the back four, along with either the home-grown Ryan Yates or the Argentina international Nicol\u00e1s Dom\u00ednguez bought from Bologna in 2023. Danilo, who is on the fringe of the Brazil squad and the Ivorian Ibrahim Sangare, both returning from long-term injuries, offer alternatives from the bench.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Their other job is to get the ball to the advanced three midfielders: Anthony Elanga, a 22-year-old Swedish international whom the Red Mancs jettisoned two summers back; Morgan Gibbs-White, who has won the Under-17 World Cup and Under-21 Euros with England; and Callum Hudson-Odoi, the England international whom Chelsea, of all people, sold for \u00a32 million in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Their job is to set up Chris Wood, the veteran New Zealand striker enjoying an Indian summer. He is third in the PL goal-scoring charts, behind Mo Salah and Erling Haaland, with 18 goals, twice as many as our best scorer in the league, who is still Kai Havertz. Taking out Wood’s three penalties and making the usual caveats about the expected goals stat, his goals scored are almost double his xG. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nor is there another striker in the league close to his conversion rate: 35% of his shots are goals; next closest among strikers with at least ten goals is Alexander Isak at 25%. Haaland is at 20% and Salah at 18%. Wood is simply having the season of his life. Cut off the supply to him, and Forest finds it difficult to win games. Their next highest scorer is Gibbs-White with five, followed by Elanga and Hudson-Odoi with three apiece. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wood is a big part of why Forest, as GHF Predictathon players know only too well, is defying all expectations after successive relegation battles in its first two seasons back in the Premier League.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Arsenal<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our opponents have been unexpectedly high-flying all season but have lost altitude of late, with three defeats in their past four games, although all were away games; they haven’t lost at home since November. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

After Saturday’s tumble against West Ham, we have to get up and running again as quickly as possible. At this point,’ Pool still has to win nine of their remaining 11 league game to be mathematically certain of the title. Arteta says he wants his side hounding them down to the last. Finishing second will also mean a few more million quid in prize and broadcasting money to chuck into the summer transfer pot than will be available if we slide down the table.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two selection questions present themselves: is Benny Blanco fit enough to start, allowing Timber to return to left-back or have a rest, and does Merino continue at nine? I am guessing the answers are no to the former (although White will get an extended run-out off the bench) and yes to the latter (we all know the alternative). Thus:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Raya<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00d8degaard, Partey, Rice<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nwaneri, Merino, Trossard<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes, it’s a must-win game for Arteta, but that’s true for Nuno, too. If we can cut off the supply to Wood, our defensive prowess should prevent Forest scoring. We will then just need to recover the spark to score a couple at the other end \u2014 two-nil to the Arsenal, the scoreline of champions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Enjoy the game, ‘holics, near and far.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

And so to the City Ground, Nottingham, to take on Nuno Esp\u00edrito Santo’s Forest on Wednesday evening. Our hosts are the second-oldest club in the Football League. They ascended to the status of the oldest when Notts County dropped into non-league football between 2019 and 2023, and Stoke City’s claims were debunked. Forest’s origin story […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10862"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10862"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10862\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10874,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10862\/revisions\/10874"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10862"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10862"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10862"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}