{"id":2579,"date":"2021-03-16T23:39:23","date_gmt":"2021-03-16T23:39:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/?p=2579"},"modified":"2021-03-19T18:29:54","modified_gmt":"2021-03-19T18:29:54","slug":"timeo-danaos-et-dona-ferentis-non-utique-but-lets-not-repeat-history","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/?p=2579","title":{"rendered":"Timeo Danaos Et Dona Ferentis Non Utique &#8211; But Let\u2019s Not Repeat History!"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<a id=\"JL9f_g2DSoZcToE50TWNsg\" class=\"gie-single\" href=\"http:\/\/www.gettyimages.co.uk\/detail\/1209118567\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;\" rel=\"noopener\">Embed from Getty Images<\/a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'JL9f_g2DSoZcToE50TWNsg',sig:'sLDoUoWV5lFj2TclKZP11LVVlG_WOvZ8l4b3-jRSNSc=',w:'594px',h:'440px',items:'1209118567',caption: true ,tld:'co.uk',is360: false })});<\/script><script src=\"\/\/embed-cdn.gettyimages.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\" async=\"\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<p>The dust has barely settled from a fine Derby result, the product of 75 minutes of total dominance and 15 minutes of hanging on for dear life against 10 men, and now we face yet another \u2018season defining match\u2019. Or at least another in a series of matches we have faced this season from which we must take something to keep our season alive. The disastrous early winter sequence of home defeats that caused pessimism and even calls for the manager\u2019s head has been rectified though those calls persist amongst the obtuse. Yet, recently we have developed a pattern of dominating matches, creating and spurning multiple chances then helping opponents back into the game with self-destructive actions in or around our box.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The first leg of this tie was just such a schizoid performance, superbly summarised by bt8 (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/?p=2541\">https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/?p=2541<\/a>). Leno\u2019s gift via Ceballos of an early second half equaliser turned a match that should have been a procession into a jittery performance that would have put us in a losing position but for a deflected shot. It\u2019s high time that we started scoring a greater proportion of the early chances we create (at least we are making them again!) and stopped being so generous to opponents. As MA8 observed about playing out from the back, it\u2019s critical to time risky passes around our own box and sometimes we have to go long!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We had an excellent preview of the first leg from Dr F that covered our opponents\u2019 history and style of play. I have nothing to add to that and refer you to that comprehensive analysis for those details (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/?p=2531\">https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/?p=2531<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have significant history with Olympiakos, albeit only relatively recent history. We have played the Greek side eleven times since 2009, winning six and losing five without any draws (so that\u2019s a banker!). The first eight matches were in the group stages of the Champions League and the last three in the knock out phases of the Europa League. The aggregate score across all eleven games to date is 19-14 in our favour suggesting a slight advantage to the good guys. This is reinforced by our consistent qualification from those CL groups but compromised by that dismal 120<sup>th<\/sup>&nbsp;minute goal a year ago that knocked us out of the Europa League on away goals in \u2018the round of 32\u2019.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, there is a consistent pattern across this history. The Arsenal have never won both legs when drawn against Olympiakos.&nbsp;&nbsp;We have generally won the first leg and lost the second, but for a bit of variety in 2015 we lost the first and won the second (well). On our first three pairs of encounters in 2009, 2011 and 2012, we won the home leg first and lost the away leg with aggregate scores of 2-1, 3-4 and 4-3. On the most recent two occasions that we were paired with Olympiakos, in 2015 and 2020, we won the away leg but on those last two occasions the Greek team won at the Emirates (notoriously poor travellers, by the way), yielding aggregate scores of 5-3 and 2-2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, football is unpredictable and every game stands alone. Patterns are there to be broken etc., etc. However, Olympiakos\u2019 recent record of two victories at the Emirates does mean that they will not approach this game with any fear. We dominated the first half of the away leg last week and should have been more than one goal to the good at half time. Yet in that first half, Luiz and \u00d8degaard did offer a preview of our propensity to shoot ourselves in the foot then Leno and Ceballos conspired to execute that properly early in the second half. With the injection of confidence our generosity had given them, the Greek team had a 10-15 minute spell during which they almost snatched the lead and we looked more jittery than we have done for some time (we didn\u2019t look jittery in the last 10-15 minutes against the Marshdwellers we looked knackered and clueless). However, after Gabriel\u2019s bullet header put us in front again there was only one team in it. I\u2019ve read analyses of that game observing that Olympiakos are a very poor side but we still needed three \u2018worldies\u2019 to beat them and we can\u2019t rely on \u2018worldie goals\u2019 on a regular basis. That\u2019s true but as so often recently, we did create and then spurn enough chances to have been home and hosed by half time. So, I fully expect us to break the \u2018win one &#8211; lose one\u2019 pattern and either win or draw this game, preferably the former.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The team?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With the advantage of three away goals in the bank from the first leg, and half an eye on our visit to the overachieving Spammers in their tax- and rate-payer subsidised social housing, I think MA8 will ring some changes for this match with the knowledge that tired legs need to be rested and that their replacements will be no more susceptible to autopedicide than the players they replace. Several players looked exhausted in the latter stages of the Derby and everyone put in an enormous shift for 75 minutes. Having said that, MA8 clearly has some ever-presents who will once again get the call. Thus, I expect a starting eleven akin to the following, provided Auba sets his alarm correctly (it\u2019s an early kick off, mate):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">Leno<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">Bellerin, Holding, Mar\u00ec, Tierney<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">Elneny, Xhaka<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">\u00d8degaard<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">P\u00e9p\u00e9, Aubameyang, Martinelli<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Holic Pound?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Given the first leg result, Olympiakos have to chase this game from the outset and as a result will be more vulnerable at the back. Thus, we should be able to score goals without having to rely on \u2018worldies\u2019. Of course, Olympiakos themselves have shown the potential to score and on our recent performances, we may again do our utmost to help them do so. Although, I think this Arsenal defence is moving in the right direction and its next step is a clean sheet, I think we will see goals at both ends in this match. Thus, the Holic Pound is going on 4-2 to the good guys at a very tasty 45\/1.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Go win, Arsenal!&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Enjoy the match, Holics.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Embed from Getty Images The dust has barely settled from a fine Derby result, the product of 75 minutes of total dominance and 15 minutes of hanging on for dear life against 10 men, and now we face yet another \u2018season defining match\u2019. Or at least another in a series of matches we have faced [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2579"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2579"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2579\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2599,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2579\/revisions\/2599"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2579"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2579"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2579"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}