{"id":5975,"date":"2022-04-08T13:54:10","date_gmt":"2022-04-08T12:54:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/?p=5975"},"modified":"2022-04-09T17:04:30","modified_gmt":"2022-04-09T16:04:30","slug":"problems-are-mounting-can-we-bounce-back","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/?p=5975","title":{"rendered":"Problems are Mounting &#8211; Can We Bounce Back?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"getty embed image\" style=\"background-color:#fff;display:inline-block;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif;color:#a7a7a7;font-size:11px;width:100%;max-width:594px;\"><div style=\"padding:0;margin:0;text-align:left;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.gettyimages.com\/detail\/1239752189\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;\" rel=\"noopener\">Embed from Getty Images<\/a><\/div><div style=\"overflow:hidden;position:relative;height:0;padding:66.66667% 0 0 0;width:100%;\"><iframe src=\"\/\/embed.gettyimages.com\/embed\/1239752189?et=69SgpdtkTX182ptX3G9yBQ&amp;tld=com&amp;sig=MgRc9p1ttE4iKyquXaNLonjg6LcZnGogztyI8hQsyIA=&amp;caption=true&amp;ver=1\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" width=\"594\" height=\"396\" style=\"display:inline-block;position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;margin:0;\"><\/iframe><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The Arsenal\u2019s prospects of finishing in the top four now look somewhat slimmer than they did only a couple of weeks ago. The news prior to the Palace match that Kieran Tierney required knee surgery and is probably out for the rest of the season was bad enough but the lethargic first half performance against Palace culminating in a 0-3 defeat and more significantly, the injury sustained by Thomas Partey were further blows to our aspirations. It seems very likely that neither of those two key players will be available during the run-in. The boss has a big challenge!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Our nine game run-in begins with a visit from Brighton who currently sit in relative safety in 13<sup>th<\/sup>&nbsp;place on 34 points but must be casting anxious glances over their shoulders as they endeavour to ensure a 6<sup>th<\/sup>&nbsp;consecutive season in the Premier League. The \u2018Seagulls\u2019 began this season well, further enhancing Graham Potter\u2019s reputation as an up and coming English coach. Brighton\u2019s form even led to cries from some Arsenal fans (who should have known better) for Potter to replace Mikel Arteta after we started poorly with a Covid ravaged squad and difficult early fixtures.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Brighton did have a great start sitting in 4<sup>th<\/sup>&nbsp;place after eight matches in mid-October with four wins, three draws and a solitary defeat while Arsenal sat in 12<sup>th<\/sup>&nbsp;having begun to climb the table with three wins and two draws after three initial goalless defeats. However, that was as high as the Seagulls soared or as bright as Brighton glowed. A subsequent preponderance of home and away draws (nine) plus three victories (two away wins at Everton and at Watford) and five defeats saw Brighton sitting securely in 9<sup>th<\/sup>&nbsp;place by early February. Then a run of six straight league defeats, four at home, with only a single goal scored (away at Newcastle) was ended only last weekend with a 0-0 draw at home to Norwich. However, in that goalless draw against Norwich, Brighton had a total of 31 shots on goal though only 4 were on target, and they also missed a penalty. This was apparently the equal highest total number of shots taken in a Premier League game this season along with Manure in their 7-0 win against Leeds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Brighton clearly have a problem scoring goals. In their 30 Premiership games to date they have scored 26 goals, conceding 36. Closer scrutiny reveals that this deficit is more marked in home games where they have scored only 10 goals in 16 games whilst conceding 20 goals. At home they have won only 3 and lost 7 of 16 games played. In contrast, their scoring record in 14 away games is better with 16 scored and 16 conceded yielding 4 wins and 3 defeats. Draws, you ask? The Seagulls are top equal with Palace for drawn games in the PL. They boast a total of 13 draws and have drawn exactly half of their 14 away games to date. All this suggests that they are likely to sit deep, defend in serried ranks to knick a point but to break out occasionally in the hope of stealing three points as they did at Burnley, Brentford, Everton and Watford. That\u2019s a list that we should avoid joining.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Brighton&#8217;s line up is reasonably predictable. They will have three big lumps at the back perming three from Dunk, Veltman, Cucurella and Duffy who will all hoover up every high ball into the box. Lamptey and March are their \u2018go to\u2019 wing backs bombing forward to support their forwards when given an opportunity. Their midfield is generally designed to obstruct rather than to create and their selection here is less predictable. I suspect Potter will put three into midfield to stifle us rather than just the pair of Gross and MacAllster whom he played against Norwich. I expect him to supplement them with either Bissouma, Moder or Lallana. Up front I think we will see our \u2018friend\u2019 Maupay alongside the tricky Trossard and expect Danny Welbeck to drop to the bench to accommodate the extra midfielder. Brighton\u2019s goal threat comes from Maupay (9), Trossard (4) and MacAllister (4) with Danny Welbeck chipping in 3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The challenge for the boss is how to recover the stability and security our defensive unit exhibited before Lady Luck deserted Arsenal at Palace, in the absence of both first-choice full backs and the screening defensive midfield pivot. It\u2019s an interesting conundrum complicated by the continuing unavailability of Tomiyasu at right back, Tavares\u2019 clear lack of confidence in his last two appearances and Xhaka\u2019s previous poor performances when asked to play as a single pivot, especially against top opposition. I think Sambi Lokonga is too inexperienced to play as a single pivot in PL games and I am not convinced that Elneny, willing worker though he is, can do it much better. So, Xhaka is the best option we have to replace Partey (sorry, TTG!). Arteta has previously addressed a leaking Arsenal defence by playing a double pivot and he may well choose to do this against teams that offer more threat on paper than Brighton. The upside is added defensive security but the very clear downside is our markedly diminished offensive creativity and end-product. I just don\u2019t expect Arteta to play a double pivot tomorrow as this is yet another \u2018must win game\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Likewise, I don\u2019t expect Arteta to revert to a back three tomorrow which, as previously noted, reduces our end product. However, I do think it would be prudent to do so against our three remaining \u2018top six\u2019 opponents. I also think that a back three is a better structure for Tavares as he is clearly more comfortable as an offensive wing back than as a &#8216;back to the wall&#8217; left back. Whether he plays tomorrow depends on how much Arteta believes his fragile confidence at Palace can be bolstered by further game time and that is a judgement only Arteta can make. Whilst Brighton at our place might be regarded as a good game to start rebuilding his confidence, it really depends how low that is and a rampaging Lamptey might prove another handful for him. If Tavares doesn\u2019t make the cut, then I expect Cedric to switch to left back and Ben White to move to right back in Tomiyasu\u2019s continued absence with Rob Holding partnering Gabriel at centre back. Lokonga added vim, vigour and passing accuracy when he replaced a sub-par Partey on Monday so I expect him to join the party tomorrow. He can be expected to add to our offensive creativity with crisp interplay in midfield. Whether he can compete with the Brighton midfield heavyweights remains to be seen. I expect him to be first choice to partner Xhaka when we do adopt a double pivot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The other question facing the boss is whether to persist with our hard-working but non-scoring captain at \u2018centre forward\u2019. I personally would, if only because we have so many forced changes to key personnel at the back and in midfield that a bit of stability up front may help the players around him to adapt to the changes behind them. However, I fully understand the lobby urging Arteta to replace him by either moving Martinelli inside or giving Nketiah a full match to show his worth. I just think we should start this match with Lacazette. However, I would have a low threshold to make a change early in the second half if we are either \u2018home and hosed\u2019 or struggling to score. It would be a good opportunity to see how we look with Martinelli leading the line against three big lumps or, alternatively, to give Nketiah a good run out to gain match sharpness. If only we could rely on Eddie as a potential starter it would make it more difficult for opposition coaches to set up against our otherwise entirely predictable front line. Having chosen to persist with Lacazette, I find it almost impossible to choose between Martinelli and Smith Rowe on the left but on the basis of their Palace performances, I would choose the former. ESR would be a good early option from the bench, especially if Odegaard hasn\u2019t recovered his form.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thus, I expect the following starting eleven:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">Ramsdale<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">Cedric, White, Gabriel, Tavares<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">Odegaard, Xhaka, Lokonga<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">Saka, Lacazette, Martinelli<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Holic Pound<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Once again, the Holic Pound has been donated to a Ukrainian cause so I haven\u2019t looked at any bookmaker\u2019s odds. Neither team is banging goals in so I expect a low score. I look forward to a 2-0 victory for the Arsenal but not without scares.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This game is definitely a \u2018must win\u2019! If we don\u2019t win this we can almost certainly kiss goodbye to fourth place and start worrying about whether we can find the form to stay in the top six.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Enjoy the game, Holics, wherever you are watching.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Embed from Getty Images The Arsenal\u2019s prospects of finishing in the top four now look somewhat slimmer than they did only a couple of weeks ago. The news prior to the Palace match that Kieran Tierney required knee surgery and is probably out for the rest of the season was bad enough but the lethargic [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5975"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5975"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5975\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5986,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5975\/revisions\/5986"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5975"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5975"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5975"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}