{"id":7122,"date":"2022-12-17T01:01:58","date_gmt":"2022-12-17T01:01:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/?p=7122"},"modified":"2022-12-24T05:45:12","modified_gmt":"2022-12-24T05:45:12","slug":"expectations-rising","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/?p=7122","title":{"rendered":"Expectations Rising"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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When I was a young boy (around the time Hannibal crossed the Alps on an elephant) our Christmas present choices were more limited. XBoxes and PlayStations had not been remotely thought of, so at Christmas I used to love to be bought, and to play, Waddington\u2019s finest board games like Monopoly, Cluedo, and a horse-racing game called Totopoly. If you agreed to play Totopoly with a lot of people you might have to devote four hours to it. The reason was that there were two boards — the exciting bit, the race, but before that, if you played it properly, you had to go through training. That took forever but it was the key to winning the ultimate race. It helped if you had a strategy that you could stick to as the intensity of competition got tighter. Often you\u2019d do everything right and your horse would burst a blood vessel in the final furlong. It was a lesson for life — and the Premier League. How often have Arsenal players been found to have gone in the fetlock at a crucial time?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is a laboured analogy but it illustrates very well how success is obtained in modern football. You have to get the preparation right before you can enjoy the end-product and you need a modicum of luck. If there is one lesson from 22-23 so far it is that the better quality your preparation…and the more intelligent your strategy, the greater the dividends you can reap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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By Jcmagot – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https:\/\/commons.wikimedia.org\/w\/index.php?curid=64792781<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

We are among friends so we can be honest. There is scarcely an Arsenal fan alive who expected the club to do this well so far this season. The reality is that a straw poll of Gooners would have been mightily pleased with fourth place and maybe winning the Europa League (another route into the Champions League) at the end of this season. Some tell me they still would be — see later!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The frustrating part is that all we have so far experienced is the foreplay. We\u2018ve played fourteen games and have to play another twenty four.  Two of those are against our greatest rivals, Manchester City. We play Newcastle twice, an away North London Derby, and a game at Anfield. Last season in those games we took a total of three points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ok, I\u2019ve pissed on your chips, so lets find something a bit more optimistic to ruminate on. How close are we to the Champions League? Automatic qualification to the Champions League for fourth was introduced to the Premier League in 2012\/13 but the number of points needed to secure that spot was on the rise well before then.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here I quote from Planet Football: “In the first ten seasons from 1995\/96 the average number of points needed to grab fourth spot was 65.5. For the following 16 seasons that number has risen to 70.8.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That number has been bolstered by Arsenal’s 79 in 2014\/15 and Liverpool’s 76 in both 2007\/08 and 2016\/17. Interestingly, all three seasons’ points totals would have been enough to win the Premier League in 1996\/97 when Manchester U, took the crown with just 75 points.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arsenal have already amassed 37 points from 14 games . They have 24 games left to get another 35 to almost certainly qualify for the Champions League. We are 11 points ahead of the fifth-place team, Manchester United, with a vastly superior goal difference (22 goals better). Liverpool, in 6th, are 15 points behind us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So short of a major collapse we have undertaken a lot of the groundwork necessary to put us back in the Champions League. We are very well on course. I have an image of many denizens of this bar becoming very uncomfortable at this sort of talk. We are tempting fate in a very big way if we start talking about being champions after fourteen games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But football fans are also greedy as well as pessimistic. Suppose we continue with excellent results and start to isolate ourselves with Citeh (if that hasn\u2019t already happened). Would we be pleased with fourth place if we are top of the table with ten games to go? Expectations get ramped up spectacularly when you are playing well. You can feel inside Ashburton Grove an atmosphere that we\u2019ve not experienced at that ground before. The place is rocking, it\u2019s positive, and it\u2019s been marvellous fun . Whisper it quietly but we do have a chance of the title. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What are the main reasons? Well we\u2019ve really thought out how to succeed. We have an intelligent template for identifying and signing talent and a sparkling academy that regularly produces stars. Look at our last one and a half seasons and compare them with Manchester United\u2019s. How much of a demand was there to take up Piers Morgan\u2019s puerile suggestion to sign Ronaldo on loan to cover the absence of Jesus? Answer: virtually none. Our coach may well be rated the hottest young property in Europe at the end of this season, and his relationship with a cabal of Edu, Lewis, Mertesacker, Garlick, Josh Kroenke, and a set of very innovative coaches generates terrific excitement for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last season there were several awful moments – Brentford away, Palace away, and the games at the Spuds and Geordies. Outclassed at Anfield and at Citeh. This season we played really well at Palace, and murdered Brentford where they had murdered us a year before. We\u2019ve seen fine away performances at Chelsea and Bournemouth, and resilient efforts at Leeds and Wolves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At home we\u2019ve been sensational in the League, efficient in the Europa League, and although we went out to Brighton in the Carabao Cup I believe that has to be a blessing in disguise. The Brighton defeat coupled with the Eindhoven capitulation away illustrates that while our first eleven is a match for anyone we lack the depth to fill in for long if we lose key players. The loss of Jesus is a much bigger challenge than the need to buy another winger in my view. Up front we have Nketiah who is still relatively unproven and now faces a lot of games with no obvious cover. Martinelli can definitely do a good job of replicating Jesus, but that affects the balance of the side. On the wing, however, we have Saka and Martinelli and could use Smith Rowe, Vieira and Marquinhos. And we saw in his cameo against Forest that Reiss Nelson is not a spent force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our one league defeat at United was deeply frustrating as a Salford-domiciled referee chalked off a perfectly valid goal, and Sambi Lokonga failed to get anywhere near to the level of Partey in playing the holding role in midfield. We looked naive in conceding on the break but we wouldn\u2019t have done so if Partey had played in place of Lokonga. Elneny wasn\u2019t available but there\u2019s also a big gap in quality between him and Partey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have an excellent defence. White, Tomayisu, and Saliba alongside the underrated Gabriel provide a strong barrier in front of the revitalised Ramsdale. In my opinion, Partey and the transformed Xhaka have dovetailed beautifully with the woefully underrated \u00d8degaard to provide a midfield that enables us to control matches against almost anybody.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the wings we have two of the most sought after players in world football in Saka and Martinelli. Both lads bleed red and white, and we must confirm their new contracts soon. I am confident we will. Hopefully we will complete a hat-trick with the signing of Saliba. Our two signings from the Etihad have adjusted brilliantly, although we will lose Jesus for around three months after an injury sustained in the World Cup. What other impacts that ghastly, mistimed tournament will have on league football will become evident as the season unwinds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is where we get to the complicated Totopoly effect. We have prepared superbly for the first third of the season. Now we have to decide what we need to take us forward\u2026and maybe decide how far forward that can be. It is hard not to feel we are seriously in the title race as I write, especially if we take up where we left off and Citeh falter at all, or Haaland or De Bruyne picks up a serious injury. Pressure builds though when expectations grow. We haven\u2019t had those expectations\u2026until now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we do sign Mudryk it is not because we need another winger but because we believe that he has a huge ceiling. We must, in my opinion, be able to mitigate the potential loss of Partey, and reduce the strain on a player whose injury record suggests he won\u2019t come unscathed through the rest of the season. If we could also find a high-quality loan striker from a cash-strapped major club like Juve, or Barcelona, or Atletico, we could see if he was able to fit into the structure, give rest and rotation to Jesus and Nketiah and find out  whether PL football suited our temporary import. Options MIGHT be loans for one of Griezmann, Vlahovic, Felix, Torres, Taremi, Giroud (!), or Morata. All have big plusses and some have obvious minuses. We lost Champions League last season because we stayed with Lacazette who gave us very little towards the end of the season. If we are determined to sign Mudryk for say \u00a340-45 m it will be because we expect him to be worth double that at least before too long. Midfield is more difficult and again a loan gives us options but McAllister at Brighton and Caicedo for that matter are fine players, and if we did get Griezmann his versatility in midfield could be a huge asset. Tielemans is a good player but isn\u2019t a priority at this stage in my opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Typical wish-list stuff which I believe indicates we need a holding midfielder and an attacking player who can be the focal point of attack. But one or both could be loan signings if Bloody Edu can do his stuff. So I might have concocted a wish list but it is based on an assumption and belief that the foundations of this club are exceptionally strong, KSE have a willingness to help the club financially in intelligent ways (they won\u2019t be pumping huge amounts in but they understand sport finance and how to juggle balance sheets), and that this is a golden moment we didn\u2019t expect but one we\u2019d love to see the club seize with vigour and ambition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a season like no other. The impact of a huge disruption in the middle of a winter programme which will stretch out interminably until June will not only stretch our resources, it will stretch everyone\u2019s. Many fine players will suffer injury and burnout but that happens when FIFA accept bribes from Qatar. We must hope and pray that our plans and our obvious quality continue this glorious domestic season, and that something special is about to occur in N5. I really believe it is. Who shares my view?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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When I was a young boy (around the time Hannibal crossed the Alps on an elephant) our Christmas present choices were more limited. XBoxes and PlayStations had not been remotely thought of, so at Christmas I used to love to be bought, and to play, Waddington\u2019s finest board games like Monopoly, Cluedo, and a horse-racing game called […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3,10],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7122"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7122"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7122\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7150,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7122\/revisions\/7150"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7122"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7122"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7122"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}