{"id":9488,"date":"2024-04-22T19:57:06","date_gmt":"2024-04-22T18:57:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/?p=9488"},"modified":"2024-04-24T08:07:07","modified_gmt":"2024-04-24T07:07:07","slug":"there-may-be-trouble-ahead-so-face-the-music-and-dance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/?p=9488","title":{"rendered":"There May Be Trouble Ahead \u2026.. So Face The Music And Dance!"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Photo by Dreamstime.com<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s a lot about Chelsea in this preview but rather than apologise for that, I will invite you to revel in the details of the complete mess into which they have gotten themselves. Fortunately, I started researching all this some time ago as it turned out to be a rats’ nest of huge proportions. I haven\u2019t had time to work too many jokes into this preview but the whole thing is really quite funny, and just deserts for a fake club and a Russian owner intent on buying success with the ill-gotten gains of a rotten regime which has murdered untold numbers of civilians in an independent country who do not want to be beholden to it. Abramovich and Chelsea initiated the hyper-inflation which has ruined football for so many clubs and supporters, and I hate them for it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


The summer transfer window has long been a time of great turmoil and excitement at Stamford Bridge – at least for Chelsea fans. Regardless of whether the previous season had been one of success or failure, the Chelsea squad could likely face big changes in the space of the next month or so. If there was a rising star on the market or an established one with enough trophies under their belt, Roman Abramovich just had to have him for Chelsea – or his own ego.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Ballack, Shevchenko, Essien, Hazard, and our own Kai Havertz were all big names on the market at some stage during Abramovich’s 19 years at the club, and all were lured to Chelsea with no regard to cost or even the manager\u2019s plans. To hell with the finances or the rules, \u00a3900,000-a-week losses were the cost of doing business for the Russian whose club was a mirror for his own reflected glory. 
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We all eagerly anticipated and then cheered the day when sanctions from the British government forced Abramovich to put the club up for sale in 2022. Surely, Chelsea could not find another Abramovich, willing to buy his way to silverware on the same scale? Even if they did, most Premier League owners did not want to compete with sovereign wealth funds or corrupt private individuals whose aim in football terms is world domination.
And so a new era of restrictions on uncontrolled spending and losses began with the introduction of the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR). Relatively suddenly, clubs like Everton and Nottingham Forest have discovered that these rules can bite, and while we all wait for Manchester City to be put to the sword, Chelsea will be fretting more than most. 
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Their current owners may not be ploughing their own personal wealth into a vanity project, but they have been spending like people who do, with over a billion pounds spent on mostly young players on ultra long-term contracts. Had those gambles resulted in Premier League contention and regular qualification for the Champions League, Chelsea’s owners might have been celebrated for establishing a new recruitment model for the industry. Instead, the club is set to miss out on the revenue from top tier European club football for a second successive season while its cost base has been inflated by the amortisation of its transfer binge.
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As this summer looms on the horizon, supporters are not dreaming of who might arrive at Stamford Bridge, but who the owners may feel compelled to sell. Such deals may well have to be agreed before the June 30th soft deadline, as those provisions will inform the Premier League’s 2023-24 PSR calculations.
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Why Chelsea’s 2024 summer looks bleak<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n


As football finance expert Kieran Maguire puts it, “2024 is probably looking like a bit of a car crash.” According to analysis carried out for CBS Sports, prior to any summer sales, Chelsea are on course for a second year out of three where their pre-tax losses are in excess of \u00a3100 million. This puts Todd Boehly, Behdad Eghbali and the rest of the ownership group in an extremely difficult position. The Premier League allows exceptions for PSR calculations that include spending on academy football, the women’s game and community investment.
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Even with generous allowances for those, CBS Sports calculations estimate that Chelsea’s losses, post-mitigations for a three-year window, would be around \u00a3210 million, double the Premier League’s top limit. Chelsea, for their part, maintain they are not concerned and that they are confident they can comply with all Financial Fair Play and PSR requirements, avoiding any league imposed penalties. We\u2019ll see!
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Across the league, those penalties have become realities for teams already. Everton and Nottingham Forest have been hit by points deductions for breaches some way short of what Chelsea’s might be. Everton exceeded their \u00a3105 million limit by \u00a319.5 million and Forest’s breach was \u00a334.5 million over their threshold of \u00a361 million (a lower amount as they had only just been promoted to the Premier League). Both were judged to be significant breaches by independent commissions. The only apparent path to compliance for next season for Chelsea is sell, sell, sell.
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“I don’t know how you can view the financial situation for Chelsea in 2023-24 and reach a conclusion that they won’t be forced to sell before June 30, or at least try their best given the Nottingham Forest decision,” says a leading analyst who spoke to CBS Sports on condition of anonymity. “When it is suggested that Chelsea need to get \u00a3100 million from player trading in that two-week window when the Euros is going on, that seems right to me.”
CBS’s analysis of Chelsea’s finances suggests that there is no imminent prospect of the picture improving. A projection for their 2024-25 accounts predicts another operating loss, this one in the region of \u00a3130 million. This far out, certain assumptions have to be made. One is that commercial revenue will remain static, given that they will be out of the Champions League again. Soon after Clearlake Capital bought Chelsea, part owner Jose E. Feliciano spoke of his belief that the club could register a billion in revenue during their ownership. That’s a far cry from these assumptions.
“My suspicion is that when Feliciano said that he was looking at Chelsea’s commercial revenue relative to the traditional big six,” says the analyst. “It was an underperformer there and so there was a sense that Chelsea had low hanging fruit. The challenge with those assumptions is that they are conditioned on a certain legacy performance that’s quickly moving away.”In the absence of sporting improvement, it’s not clear how they would get to those numbers.\u201d
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The second set of assumptions is based around involvement in competition outside Europe. Given the state of the Premier League table, the Champions League looks beyond Mauricio Pochettino’s side, who would have to make up a 17 point gap in 10 games just to make the fifth spot that might, dependent on English club’s performances in Europe this season, unlock another seat at the top table. The Europa League and Europa Conference League are possibilities, although now only through league finish as they lost in the FA Cup at the weekend when Manchester City beat them in the semi-finals. The likelihood is that they will not even qualify for a spot in the Conference League. One of their main sources of increased revenue then would appear to be ticket price rises – surely an unpopular option for fans who are already unimpressed by the club\u2019s decline. 
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Amortisation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And this is where Chelsea’s great veil of amortisation gets drawn back. They were able to spend more than \u00a31 billion in the transfer market since the takeover by spreading the cost of big money signings such as Mykhailo Mudryk, Moises Caicedo and Enzo Fernandez over contracts significantly longer than the usual four to five years that might normally be handed out. When it comes to reflecting those transfers in their accounts, the cost is spread over the life of a player’s contract. Mudryk’s \u00a3100 million deal might look staggering on paper, but spread over the cost of a seven and a half-year contract it is rather less of a burden in any one year.
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That Chelsea managed to secure these deals before UEFA and the Premier League moved to limit the number of years a fee could be amortised over, made some see a whiff of genius from the ownership. Few appreciated that governing bodies might have a point when they said they were acting to discourage clubs from locking themselves into squads over the extreme long-term when the side effects could be profound.
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Chelsea’s annual amortisation costs are not that out of sync with the rest of the Premier League, according to finance writer Swiss Ramble. The \u00a3160 million they have on their books is not even the highest in England, trailing Manchester United at \u00a3170 million. A key difference, however, aside from the revenue gulf between those two clubs, is the speed at which United could bring theirs down.
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United have 11 first-team players on their books, with three or four years left on their contracts come the end of the season, and 20 who would be out of contract in two years. At Chelsea, there are 23 players who are tied to the club to 2028 and beyond. Many of their most expensive acquisitions – Mudryk, Fernandez, Caicedo, Nicolas Jackson and Romeo Lavia among them – are contracted until 2030. 
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If the plan had clicked, Chelsea might just be in dream land now, a squad of bright young things achieving greatness while tied to contracts that are relatively cheap by Premier League big-six standards. Instead, they seem to have found themselves in the downside scenario. Amortising the value over seven or eight years means that every year the book value of Chelsea’s squad is cut by a far smaller fraction. For it to make any financial sense for Mudryk to be sold, for instance, it would have to be at a price which is higher than the asset is worth to Chelsea. That almost certainly will not happen when his paper value remains so high, and potential buyers are now very aware of their own spending limits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


The latest ruse<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n


The following explanation is from Jacob Steinberg in the Guardian on how Chelsea are trying to escape punishment under the PSR rules by selling themselves two hotels:\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014 \u201cPremier League clubs reacted with exasperation after seeing that Chelsea eased their financial position with the \u00a376.5m sale of two hotels to a sister company, in a deal that appears to have helped the club avoid a breach of profitability and sustainability rules. Chelsea’s accounts, published last weekend, revealed the club made a loss of \u00a389.9m in the last financial year. That figure would have been \u00a3166.4m without the hotels sale from Chelsea FC Holdings Ltd to Blueco 22 Properties Ltd. Both companies are subsidiaries of Chelsea’s holding company, Blueco 22 Ltd.
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The move to sell the Millenium and Copthorne hotels, and their car parking, was not blocked by the league. But Chelsea’s ability to exploit a loophole in the rules has not gone down well with everyone. An executive at one top-flight club was incredulous after learning of the deal, and another club were left with “raised eyebrows” and were said to have read the accounts “with interest”. There was a sense of resignation at another club, where a figure said that the deal came as “little – surprise”.
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The hotel sales were yet to be assessed as “fair market value” under the league’s associated-party transactions rules, according to Chelsea’s accounts. Any decrease in the \u00a376.5m valuation could place Chelsea’s finances under renewed pressure. The accounts were signed off in December 2023, six months after the hotels deal took place. Chelsea and the league have not confirmed whether a fair-market assessment has been concluded. It has been pointed out by Chelsea that they appointed two independent valuers to assess the club’s valuation of the hotels and that no issues were raised.
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The last week has revealed that the hand of Roman Abramovich reached far beyond West London. It seems the tanks the Russian famously parked on the front lawn at Highbury were also firing \u00a350 notes in the direction of Holland and Eredivisie club Vitesse Arnhem. Following an investigation into allegations that the club was secretly controlled by Abramovich and received illegal payments from him, they have been deducted 18 points, ensuring their relegation. It seems to me that other clubs, fans and indeed the Premier League know exactly what is going on, and it is all flying totally in the face of the spirit and intentions of the league\u2019s stipulations. The one thing I can\u2019t find much opinion on is why the League are so slow to do anything about it. Unless, of course, you are \u201clowly\u201d Nottingham Forest or hard up Everton. Or maybe that\u2019s a clue.Given how close Chelsea appear to be to the PSR line, there does not appear to be much room for creativity. The Premier League has a big fish to catch here, hopefully as a warm up for the biggest of all, Manchester C115y. Fingers crossed. 
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The teams<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fofana, Lavia, Ugochukwu, James, Nkunku and Colwill are all out for Chelsea, so they\u2019ll have to dip into their 137 strong squad. Pochettino will doubtless be whining regardless of who does and doesn\u2019t play because whining is what he does most of. And, frankly, who cares? Their only other doubt is keeper Edouard Mendy but he is a worry for quite different reasons – a building in Chelsea was going up in flames. A distressed woman, tightly clutching her baby, was spotted screaming for her life and for someone to save her baby. No one responded until Edouard Mendy arrived at the scene. He shouted up, “Lady, I’m Edouard Mendy! I’m Chelsea’s No. 1 goalkeeper! I’ll save your baby for sure, it’s my job!” The woman responded doubtfully, \u201cI’m 15 stories up! Surely you won’t be able to save my child!” Confidently, Mendy responded, \u201cDon\u2019t worry! Have faith in me. I will save your baby, just as I have performed time and time again important saves for Chelsea.” Persuaded, the woman put her faith in Mendy and dropped her baby for him. Down the baby went, 15 stories, 150 feet. Perfectly positioned, with great confidence, and true to character, Mendy clutched the baby in mid-air, bounced it on the ground a few times, and punted it out of bounds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


The Arsenal<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Definitely still unavailable for this game is Jurrien Timber, with this from Mikel Arteta at the weekend: “He’s going to play a game with the under-21s against Blackburn on Monday and after that we will see better where he is, how he felt. He looks really good in training but it’s that last step now. We need to have the certainty that he’s ready to go.\u201d Takehiro Tomiyasu is the only other injury worry but is expected to be available according to Sports Mole.
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I\u2019m guessing Arteta will go with his policy of making changes only where necessary, but I would like to see us really go at them from the start, so my stab at the team is:
Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Kiwior; \u00d8degaard, Jorginho, Rice; Saka, Havertz, Martinelli;
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The Holic Pound<\/strong>
As something a bit different to the usual match odds, if you are mad enough to bet on this title race with 5 games to go, Paddy Power are offering 3\/1 for us to win the league. (C115y are offered at 6\/10 and Liverpool at 9\/2 – just for information, mind!) For this match, we are priced around 8\/15 to win, the draw is 4\/1 and a Chelsea win is 5\/1. Bet365 have Martinelli at 2\/1 to score at any time, or Kai Havertz at 7\/4 – got to be, hasn\u2019t it ?
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The Officials<\/strong>
Referee: Simon Hooper; 4th Official: Graham Scott; VAR: Peter Bankes. Kick-off is on Tuesday 23rd April, at 20.00 UK. TV coverage on TNT Sport. Enjoy the game if you can \u2026.. any win \u2026 any win \u2026 any win \u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There\u2019s a lot about Chelsea in this preview but rather than apologise for that, I will invite you to revel in the details of the complete mess into which they have gotten themselves. Fortunately, I started researching all this some time ago as it turned out to be a rats’ nest of huge proportions. I […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9488"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9488"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9488\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9504,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9488\/revisions\/9504"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9488"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9488"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9488"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}