{"id":9741,"date":"2024-06-19T09:01:41","date_gmt":"2024-06-19T08:01:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/?p=9741"},"modified":"2024-07-13T22:27:52","modified_gmt":"2024-07-13T21:27:52","slug":"the-silly-season-begins","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/?p=9741","title":{"rendered":"The Silly Season Begins"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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The start of the Euros might have obscured the fact that the transfer window opened on 14th June and from now until the end of August, NewsNow will be refreshed continually as transfer stories (most of which are complete rubbish) break and develop. The window closes officially at 11pm on 30th August as Jim White clad in his yellow tie breaks down in tears on live TV and Sky reporters frantically sip hot coffee while shivering in club car parks all over England waiting for managers in their Range Rovers to confirm or deny deals. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this article I thought it might be interesting to look at what Arsenal might do in this window. I will focus predominantly on incomings although as we will see, the management of finances has never been more important and the consequences (seemingly for all clubs except one) of mismanaging their profit and loss account has never had more potentially vicious consequences. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I won\u2019t go into huge depth about the various rules  by which we have to abide. There are those in the GHF fraternity who understand them better than me and I am not fit to touch the hem of their garment, but I\u2019ve just tried to provide a bit of context, so please be gentle with me if my suppositions are wrong. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Profit and Sustainability Rules  <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

PSR rules prohibit all clubs in the Premier League from accumulating losses in excess of \u00a3105 million over a three-year period. Not all club spending is captured by the \u00a3105 million limit: infrastructure, women’s football, investment in youth and community work costs are all deductible for PSR purposes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UEFA has helped accelerate the complexity of the situation with changes it has introduced over the past 18 months. Any club competing in European competitions will have to adhere to rules limiting spending on player wages, amortised transfers and agent fees to 70 per cent of overall revenue by 2025-26. The move towards that benchmark began with the limit set at 90 per cent this season and 80 per cent in 2024-25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Squad Formation Rules <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If that isn\u2019t complicated enough, we have the league rules on squad formation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Per the league\u2019s rules, clubs can name a squad of 25 players but  the 25 players cannot contain  more than 17 who do not fulfil \u201chomegrown\u201d criteria. So, you need at least 8 homegrown players.  \u201cHomegrown\u201d means a player who, irrespective of nationality or age, has been registered with any club in England or Wales for a period, continuous or not, of three entire seasons before his 21st birthday (or the end of the season during which he turns 21).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Players under the age of 21 do not need be included in our 25-player squad, and clubs can field as many under-21s as they wish throughout the campaign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Players we are (currently) retaining are listed below. *Players marked with an asterisk are homegrown.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kai Havertz<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gabriel Jesus<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jorginho<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jakub Kiwior<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gabriel Magalhaes <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gabriel Martinelli*<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reiss Nelson*<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eddie Nketiah*<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Martin \u00d8degaard<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thomas Partey<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aaron Ramsdale*<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Raya*<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Omar Rekik<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Declan Rice*<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bukayo Saka*<\/p>\n\n\n\n

William Saliba*<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Albert Sambi Lokonga <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Emile Smith Rowe*<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nuno Tavares<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kieran Tierney <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jurrien Timber<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Takehiro Tomiyasu<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Leandro Trossard<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fabio Vieira <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ben White*<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oleksandr Zinchenko <\/p>\n\n\n\n

My sense is that at least 7 of these players will be sold (or go on loan) and it may be as many as 10. Thirteen of this list are not home grown. But several may leave . Probably 4 homegrown players could leave this summer. If they do, we must sign 2 homegrown players over 21 to replace them or just carry a smaller squad. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under 21\u2019s <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The following players were on loan all season: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Charlie Patino<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mika Biereth<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brooke Norton- Cuffy<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Marquinhos (who I believe is returning permanently to Brazil) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other notable U21s who may be considered for first team action are: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Amario Cozier-Duberry <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Khayon Edwards<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taylor Foran<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jimi Gower<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ayden Heaven<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Karl Hein<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jack Henry-Francis<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ismeal Kabia<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Myles Lewis-Skelly<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zane Monlouis<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ethan Nwaneri <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Michal Rosiak<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Charles Sagoe Jr<\/p>\n\n\n\n

James Sweet<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reuell Walters (Reuell has apparently refused a new contract and is destined to leave) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition, Chido Martin Obi who is not old enough to sign a pro contract in England is likely to leave for Germany.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Transfers – A Murky Pool.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a long business career where I got heavily involved in film finance, takeover deals and property deals I scarcely ever found myself working on insurance for transfer deals. While I would love to have scuppered a big Manchester United transfer or held up a new Tottenham purchase but I never had the opportunity. I was peripherally involved in John Hollins\u2019 transfer from Chelsea to QPR which he describes in his autobiography. I was aware of a number of complicated machinations affecting Lassana Diarra\u2019s transfer to us from Chelsea and the last deal I had any foreknowledge of was the ill-fated deal which saw Willian move to us from the Bus Stop. A friend who has strong Chelsea connections told me about this deal several months before it actually happened. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Having once sat next to a football agent at a charity breakfast at Claridges, this was really no hardship. He was a repulsive character who dripped arrogance. He was almost a cliche in the way that he talked and his outlook on life. Someone who gave you the impression that the world of football revolved around him and had little to do with players. Those of us old enough to remember football transfers in days of yore when most of the action seemed to take place at motorway service stations or railway stations will suspect that a lot of nefarious dealings took place around transfers with many household names involved. It always seemed singularly unfair just to sanction George Graham for the \u2018bung\u2019 he received from Rune Hauge over the transfer of Pal Lydersen when so many other big figures in the game went unpunished for similar offences. Reference the transcript of the notorious legal action between Alan Sugar and Terry Venables for examples of what went on. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today\u2019s transfers are complex, often protracted affairs and one suspects that brown envelopes are no longer traded at Watford Gap at 11.30 at night. Transfer negotiations are compressed into the windows in the summer and (less frequently) in the winter. The amounts involved are so large that transfer strategy is an  incredibly important part of running a modern football club . It is an area that has been conducted in a very different way at Arsenal in recent years <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Changing Times at Arsenal <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the post-season break in 2020 Arsenal decided to change their modus operandi on transfers. This coincided with the departure of Raul Sanllehi which seemed to be associated with a review by KSE\u2019s emissary in London, Tim Lewis, now a club director, of the transfer of Nicolas Pepe from Lille a year before. From that moment onwards, Arsenal\u2019s transfer dealings appeared to interested observers to be informed by a much tighter strategy with a transfer committee in place and Josh Kroenke ultimately signing off all transfers. This change also coincided with a willingness to continue to spend big and to recruit younger players with a high ceiling. We saw the recruitment of White, Ramsdale, Tomayisu, Jesus, Zinchenko, Trossard, Jorginho and Kiwior. Last window saw us recruit Havertz, Timber, Raya (on loan) and the mega-deal for Declan (\u2018we got him half-price\u2018) Rice . These players have taken us into contention for the title. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So what will happen in the window that has just opened ? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ve started with outgoings because they may determine who we end up buying. Those likely to leave: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Highly likely departures<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ramsdale <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Partey <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sambi Lokonga <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tavares <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tierney <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Patino <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nketiah <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nelson <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Biereth <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Norton-Cuffy <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is impossible to assign very accurate figures but if everyone on this list did leave we could expect to receive somewhere between \u00a3100- \u00a3140 million <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Possible departures <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jesus (possible fee \u00a325 million) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zinchenko (possible fee \u00a325 million) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hein (possible fee \u00a35 million but may go on loan) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Smith Rowe (possible fee \u00a325 million) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vieira (possible fee \u00a315 million – may go on loan) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kiwior (possible fee \u00a320 million) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

All the fee calculations here and above do not take into account additional clauses and incentive payments . <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The clickbait transfer stories try to link almost every player with a move and I am very sceptical that we could  oversee (or need to oversee) an exodus like this. I think some of our younger players with no obvious pathway to the first team are likely to leave while players whom we need to upgrade or who need to move for the sake of their careers will move on. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, I expect to see all of those on the \u2018Likely Departures\u2019 list leaving and in addition, we may see Kiwior depart and Vieira going on loan. I desperately hope ESR stays and gets more opportunities. He is home-grown and would ideally have to be replaced by another homegrown player. Why sign, say Conor Gallagher, if you have to let ESR go? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Potential Signings <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have been told that there will be a strong focus on signing breakthrough players between the ages of 16-19 this summer. I don\u2019t have my own scouting network so can\u2019t identify likely recruits but it does seem perverse to me that we are focusing here while seeing Patino, BNC, Walters and Biereth go and failing to retain Martin Obi and possibly Cozier-Duberry. If we want to recruit and retain the best young talent we have to find a way to develop a pathway into the first team. At least, Ethan Nwaneri may well join the first team squad next season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think we need to sign players for the following positions: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A goalkeeper (two if Hein leaves or goes out on loan).<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This would be a back-up to Raya but we would need a third keeper if Hein moves, even if out on loan. Hein doesn\u2019t appear to be trusted to be the number two keeper despite being the Estonian national keeper. The Athletic has reported that Hein has been persuaded to sign a new contract but will probably go out on loan and assuming he stays, my suggestion would be to try to resign Wojciech Szczesny although he seems destined for Saudi Arabia where he will be first choice and will be handsomely remunerated to play in empty stadia. He would count as homegrown, he knows and loves the club and may have unfinished business. Arteta may even let him have a fag in the showers! He has more top-level experience than Raya. Other possibilities are Kaspar Schmeichel or Fabianski. Any keeper would need to be able to hit the ground running and be competent with their feet. The older generation of keepers are less adept in this regard but are shot- stoppers .<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The most rumoured keeper is Bijlow, the Feyenoord keeper. He is a very modern keeper and will really challenge Raya who we will be buying shortly on a permanent basis, but Bijlow has a very worrying injury record. Justin Steele of Brighton is also rumoured to be a target and is homegrown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A left sided defender (one who ideally can play at left back and centre back). <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kiwior is regularly linked with a move back to Italy. He improved last year, mainly playing at left-back and is a regular for Poland. He is a good passer but may stay as back-up to Gabriel. If Zinchenko leaves, I think we may sign Kadioglu, the very highly-rated left back from Fenerbache. He fits the age profile and is highly mobile. If it were my choice (as if!) I\u2019d keep Tierney who is a fine full back and can play as a centre back in either a three or four. The apparently favoured choice is Hato of Ajax who can play in both left sided positions. He is 18, but already skippering the side and has just signed a new contract.  Timber will hopefully be able to play a full part next season possibly starting at left back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A midfielder (one who can play box to box – ideally an 8). It is not inconceivable we might sign two.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Every indication seems to suggest that Partey is being sold, probably because of his injury record although I sensed a deterioration in his level at the end of the season when he returned. My choice would be Youssuf Fofana at Monaco, a current French international who is likely to be available for \u00a325 million as he has one year on his contract. Douglas Luiz would fit well but appears destined for Juventus and would Villa sell to us? Adam Wharton at Palace would fit very well (and is homegrown) but would cost around \u00a360 million. I really like Sabitzer at Dortmund but he doesn\u2019t fit the age profile. Arteta is keen on Zubimendi at Sociedad but he seems to prefer to stay in Spain. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A wide attacker (ideally one who could also play through the middle).<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

My choice here would be Xavi Simons at PSG who impressed me enormously playing for PSV a couple of seasons ago. Alternatives are Eze (homegrown), Olise (who is very injury prone and we must leave Palace some players!) , and Bakayoko of PSV who  impressed against us in the Champions League.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Would I buy a striker? Given the emergence of Havertz – no, but we\u2019d need to keep Jesus and use Martinelli more through the middle if we want another striking option.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Possible pure  striking options are Gimenez at Feyenoord, Solanke at Brighton ( homegrown) and Zirkzee at Bologna. I don\u2019t personally like the idea of Osimhen who looks like Aubameyang Mark 2 or Toney who apparently has not impressed Arteta with his personality. But some sources suggest that if we can buy Osimhen at a reduced price, we would be keen to recruit him as he is keen to play in the Premier League. Hopefully my scepticism is unjustified but I think a marquee signing like Osimhen would possibly produce some disharmony as it would potentially displace Havertz, who is much better upfront than midfield and the Nigerian appears a high-risk signing with a very large ego. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So if we make the sort of signings I suggest, our outlay would not be massively more than our incoming fees. Add an Osimhen and we could be looking at an outgoing of \u00a3230-250 million with very high wages as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After the clickbait subsides we tend to get very authoritative information from Ornstein, Romano and Charles Watts who have a real inside track at the club. We will watch with keen  interest and performances at the Euros may give us insight into where the  real value lies and who the emerging stars are. Certainly as a club in a reasonable PSR position with a decent revenue stream next season, Champions League football and the opportunity to raise a considerable sum from outgoing transfers we should be one of the best-placed sides going into the window. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Buckle up it may be an interesting ride! <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The start of the Euros might have obscured the fact that the transfer window opened on 14th June and from now until the end of August, NewsNow will be refreshed continually as transfer stories (most of which are complete rubbish) break and develop. The window closes officially at 11pm on 30th August as Jim White […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3,10],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9741"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9741"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9741\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9775,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9741\/revisions\/9775"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9741"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9741"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.goonerholicsforever.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9741"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}