November opens with one of our most difficult away trips; a trip that has always been a test of our mettle.
Since our very first visit in the Second Division in January 1884, as ‘The Woolwich Arsenal’, a 2-0 defeat, we have played at Anfield 111 times, winning 27, drawing 25 and losing 59. It took six visits to win our first point, a 2-2 draw in League Division 1 on 27 December 1909, and a further 5 visits to get our first win, 3-2 on 1 September 1919.
The Arsenal’s last Premier League victory at Anfield was in September 2012 when goals by Podolski and Cazorla secured a second consecutive victory for a team featuring Mikel Arteta in midfield. Our last five visits have seen a relative improvement in our fortunes at this venue with four draws and a solitary undeserved 1-0 defeat, last season, due to a spectacular Szobozlai free kick. However, in the Premier League era (when socca began, of course) our record at Anfield is disappointing with 5 wins, 12 draws and 19 defeats.
Liverpool were rather a basket case last season and have been described as being ‘in a transitional period’ this season. Unfortunately, over the last couple of weeks, it does look as if Iraola’s methods may be beginning to bear fruit at Liverpool. The ‘dippers had a slow start to the season with draws against Newcastle, Forest and Fulham and unconvincing away wins against Ipswich and Bournemouth before their tame defeat to Shitteh* (albeit handicapped by a harsh red card), since when they have beaten Brentford and Brighton while winning all three of their Champions League games. While none of these wins were comfortable, there is no doubt that Liverpool look a better team than they did last season, with Wirtz and Isak developing an understanding since the Interlull and the Swede scoring six goals in seven Premier League matches. Meanwhile, Jacquet and Araujo appear to have added security at the back. They now sit in fourth place in the league on 15 points with 11 goals scored and 8 conceded; for context Arsenal are 2nd on 21 points with 13 scored and 5 conceded.
Liverpool prepared for this match by resting key players in their Carabao Cup tie with Chelsea while the Londoners played a full strength side whom the Scousers more than matched despite their absentees. Alisson, Jacquet, MacAllister, Wirtz, Barcola and Isak started on the bench while Koumas and van Dijk were rested after 59 and 72 minutes respectively. Wirz and Barcola joined the fray on the hour mark and Isak and MacAllister after 80 minutes but couldn’t prevent the stalemate and penalties. Gomez, Gravenberch and Gakpo played the full match. In contrast to our dispiriting shoot-out failure against Fleetwood the evening before, Liverpool survived a couple of Chav misses to win the tie. Their key players effectively had a low stress warm-up for our visit and are undoubtedly looking forward to it with little trepidation about our blunt forward line. On Friday, Iraola suggested that Munoz and Szobozlai could also be available to face us.
So what about the Arsenal? The outing against Fleetwood Town didn’t exactly prove ideal preparation for a visit to Anfield. In theory, we were able to rest our first-choice goalkeeper, back four, midfield and wingers and give our two underperforming ‘strikers’ an opportunity to rediscover their goalscoring reflexes while giving a few underused legs a run out under match conditions. “The best laid plans o’ mice an’ men gang aft agley!” as Rabbie said or, rather less elegantly, if you prefer mid-20th century American vernacular, “Shit happens!” I will not revisit that debacle as ClockEndRider has more than adequately covered it.
Our squad is already looking slightly ragged despite having been widely hailed as the squad most replete with talent in the UK, only a few weeks ago. Of course, we will be without long term absentees Saliba (back), and Saka (thigh) with possible return dates quoted on premierinjuries.com as 21/11/26 and 2/12/26 respectively. Those are clearly rough estimates rather than precise targets. In his press conference, Arteta reported that Saka has made good progress and could be available to play before the international break. He also stated that Tzolis could be available for this match.
At the time of writing, Rice (thigh), Calafiori (other!) and Madueke (ankle/foot) were listed as ‘late fitness test’ with the first two quoted as having a 75% chance of playing on Sunday and the Madueke with a 50% chance. In his press conference, Arteta observed that Rice and Calafiori trained on Friday and are likely to be ready but Madueke must be re-assessed after training on Saturday.
Of course, we must also add Max Dowman to the absentee list because of the red card for what was, in context, a pretty mild reaction (IMHO) to assault by northern louts particularly to a potentially leg-breaking challenge. The failure of Arsenal’s appeal against the three match ban for ‘violent behaviour’ was to be expected from the powers that be, given the usual response we get from English football authorities. Arseblog nicely highlights the crass stupidity of a system of punishment that gives Max the same duration of suspension that Ryan Shawcross received for his deliberately. violent GBH on Aaron Ramsey.
Arsenal’s goalkeeper and centre backs for this game (indeed, atm for any game!) are clearly a no-brainer. Hopefully all our fitness testees recover fully and make the cut. I think White and, if fit, Calafiori will be our starting full backs but Timber and Hincapié do offer able alternatives though both looked extremely rusty against Fleetwood. Indeed, the latter was SO erratic that Charles Watts suggested that MLS should play at left back in this game if Calafiori isn’t fit enough to start.
If Rice is fit, the second biggest decision for Mikel Arteta is whom to play alongside him and Ødegaard in midfield – I would choose MLS over Guimarães for off-the-ball security (This is Anfield – as the sign says). However, I would replace Rice with Guimarães if the Anglo-Irishman is not fit enough to start and replace him after 45-60 minutes if necessary. Zubimendi will be standing by to replace any of the starting midfielders incapable of going the distance.
Arteta’s biggest decision is who to play up front. Hopefully, Madueke will be fit enough to start but, if not, I would start Havertz on the right of the front three with either Merino or Gyökeres in the centre. Havertz’s recent poor finishing has, for many Gooners, eclipsed his work rate and his ability to get on the end of moves and, if he is not needed to fill a gap on the right, I would definitely start him in the centre over Gyökeres, as I think would Arteta. The Swede’s persistent failure to hold up the ball and his inability to get on the end of crosses reliably, renders him, for me, third choice at ‘centre forward’ behind Havertz and Merino. Unless Tzolis has fully recovered, Eze will surely start on the left and he really must now grab this opportunity to claim that position as his own. Where better to build on his achievements last season against the Spudz than Anfield?
Hence, I expect the following starting XI:
Raya
White Konsa Gabriel Calafiori
Ødegaard MLS Rice
Madueke Havertz Eze
Liverpool’s attack looks threatening on paper but their scoring record this season suggests that, as a team, they are no better at putting the ball in the net than us and their victories this season have really not been as convincing as the score-lines would suggest. Although our attack has frustrated us regularly for months with ponderous build-up play and clunky finishing, we have scored more goals than Liverpool this season. Further, our defence, whilst not looking as secure as last season’s, has been the most miserly in the league to date, despite the leakage of three goals at Brighton. It does seem unlikely that this will be a high scoring match.
The Holic Pound? The weight of history in this fixture inclines me to predict a low/no scoring draw. Indeed, that is what last season’s Anfield fixture was heading towards until Szobozlai scored his ‘worldy’ from a free-kick, so late in the game that we had no time to salvage a point.
Bet365 offers the draw at 5/2 and Paddy Power offers it at a slightly more parsimonious 23/10. The latter offers exact score odds of 11/1 for 0-0, 5/1 for 1-1 and 10/1 for 2-2. Those odds rather confirm my pre-match instinct. However, if you are of a less pessimistic disposition than I am, you can splash out on 0-1 or 1-2 to the good guys, both offered at 15/2, or, if you are even more optimistic (aka slightly bonkers), you can have 0-2 at 11/1, 1-3 at 14/1 or 0-3 at 20/1.
Enjoy the game, Holics, however and wherever you view it.
Summon the spirit of ’89, fellas!
COYG !
Thanks for this preview, Bath, although I am not sure whether to be concerned or encouraged by it. As you note, Anfield is not a happy hunting ground for us, and Iraola is starting to get ‘Pool to click. On the other hand, Arteta’s Arsenal gets itself up for big games. I doubt there will be more than a goal in it either way. Your suggestion of a no/low-scoring draw is highly feasible. Intriguingly, if one side or the other is to run away with the game, the bookmakers suggest that side will be us.
Thanks Bath, thorough preview of what has proved to be an annoyingly
tricky game for us the last few years. We are overdue a win and so hopefully
whoever is for can deliver the three points.
Thanks for that detail packed preview Bath. I’ve been to Anfield three times and seen us draw twice and lose once. I’m sorry to have to tell you that we’l be there tomorrow hoping against hope to lay that hoodoo. Looks like Tzolis may be fit, but Noni is touch and go.
Here’s hoping for a triumphant return down the M6 for once.
A well considered, informative and enjoyable preview, Bath. Partly because of the weight of our history at Anfield I’m never optimistic ahead of a visit there and the current status of our injury/form depleted attack hasn’t raised my mojo ahead of tomorrow’s game. Your team looks like the strongest we can field tomorrow. Havertz hasn’t been scoring but, unlike Victor, he has forced himself into positions to do so. It would be great to see his fortunes turn for the better and help return a famous victory for the boys in blue.
I meant to say whoever is fit not for @2
If Tzolis is fit then he starts I guess, if Noni isn’t then not sure who starts on the right.
Eze or Ode maybe? Timber even?
Brighton have now beaten us and City this season. We got off to a bad start with Hurzeler when he agreed with that ridiculous red card against Declan. But you’ve got to admire the way he’s got that team playing. I see he’s also sensible enough to rule himself out of the United job.
Cheers, Bath – it’s hard to be confident about this one when our history there is so bad. The game was ours for the taking last season but we showed no adventure and they nicked it. We should be good enough to get at their defence but passing sideways and backwards at a snail’s pace ain’t gonna do it.
Fingers crossed for the cliched “any win”.
C100 @6 – please don’t bring up that defeat to the Seagulls again – you’ll start me off having one of my terns.
I hate to think which body part Calafiori could have injured if premierinjuries can only categorize it as “other”
An out of body injury? I am predicting a 2-0 Arsenal win with Calafiori accounting for all our scoring. Many thanks for the preview Bath. 🍺
Excellent imagery @6, Countryman. 🤣
Trev@8. Heh. Eggzactly see what you did there.
There’s only one thing wotse than Trev having one of his terns, and that’s when he starts crowing about it. 🫣
Thanks for the detailed and thoughtful preview Bath!
Fourteen years is a very long time indeed. Over the years a few times it felt like that the team gave a little too much respect to the occasion and the away ground and allowed the opponents more time on the ball. The kind of control and composure we have shown recently away against opponents of greater quality and at least as strong a home record — Madrid, Bayern — should see us through in this match this time around.
Assuming Tzolis and Noni fit enough to start, this would be my preferred starting eleven:
Raya
White-Konsa-Gabriel-Calafiori
Ødegaard-Rice-MLS
Madueke-Merino-Tzolis
Merino playing a false 9, dropping back and joining Martin to send defense-splitting passes in getting the two wingers in through the goal.
Martin and Tzolis to reenact the Cazorla-Poldi feats for a satisfying 2-0 victory for the champions.
Come on Arsenal!
bt8@12: Or starts puffin out his chest.
@8, 11,12 and 14
Trev is right to forget the game, they had us on a skua that day
Great preview Bath which I would have read earlier if I hadn’t run out of petrel on the motorway . The car was soaking wet after the Shearwater damage it suffered . I’m not gullible enough to believe any trip to Anfield will be easy but having had a nice curry I will have a cormorant . In fact the cat fell asleep and I did not want the kitty to wake or to make a mess on the shag pile . Anyway I made a gannet of myself
All the puns are because I’m deeply pessimistic about tomorrow. I’d be delighted with a point but I think Liverpool are our main challengers this season
Eider way it will be a tough game
Thanks Bath
If Rice plays it’s 1-0 to the Arsenal!
UTA
Time to knock the Liver birds off their perch.
@18 exactly, they’ve been an albatross around our necks for too long
Matt@19 beat me to it! Top punnery, Gents. I hope that C100 and son have a lark up there, and have no need to quail. The canary in the coal mine for me is Szoboszlai being fit again. However there is no reason that Odegaard can’t come good with set pieces of his own. Toucan play at that game. I’m so very, very sorry….
I had no idea our record was quite so bad up there. I guess the 70’s and 80’s must account for a fair bit of the differential. The Horror, The Horror, in the words of Marlon Brando.
I’d take a draw. After this game we will have played Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Forest and Sunderland away. Last season we secured a grand total of 5 points from those games, This season we have already won 3 of those games. A draw today would represent a doubling of our points total against them. A fair start indeed.
A comprehensive preview, cheers bath!
A last minute winner would do the trick today.
I see I just landed in the middle of a punfest. Well, let us just hope the referee doesn’t make a tit of himself.
Unlikely, I know.