So, it comes around again. Our visit to the dark side, at the sleazy end of Via Septum Sororum. The 209th North London Derby, of which we have won 86, drawn 55 and lost 67. This is our 92nd league fixture in the Slough of Despond where we have won 26 times and drawn 26 times. Since the inception of the Premier League (which as we all now know was the dawn of soccer civilisation), we have visited 31 times, winning on 6 occasions and drawing on 12 occasions.

However this time, it’s a must win game. There’s a great deal riding on this result as we enter the final straight of a three horse race to the Premier League title with the C115y mercenaries breathing down our necks. While all contenders have at least four games to play (C115y have 5) and we know that there are several potential twists yet to come, there’s also a sense that we cannot afford to drop any points at all because of the standard set by the financially doped Mancs. The Marshdwellers would love nothing more than to derail our title bid while they still have aspirations to pip Villa to the fourth place trophy. Everton’s mugging of the Mugsmashers in midweek offers a forewarning of how the passion of a local derby can overwhelm the more cultured participant. Yet, we have visited the Toilet Bowl in the past needing a result and have delivered the results required to lift silverware.

On May 3, 1971, Arsenal faced the Marshdwellers in the final game of the season with a first league title in 18 years at stake (ring a bell?). In that era, goal average (‘goals scored’ divided by ‘goals against’) was used to separate teams sitting on the same points rather than goal difference as now. Arsenal trailed Dirty Leeds, who had completed their fixtures, by one point and as a result of the goal average system, a win or a scoreless draw would win Arsenal the title – a score draw would take them level with Leeds on points but with an inferior goal average. Over 50,000 fans managed to get into the ground, including the Guvna and our own Trev while twice as many fans are estimated to have been locked out in the streets outside, including our own Uply, TTG and Pangloss. The opposition made a huge effort to deny us the title but Bob Wilson made several spectacular saves to keep them out. Then, with three minutes to go Ray Kennedy headed a George Armstrong cross into their net. 1-0 to the Arsenal (years before that chant) and, finally, an eighth title. A magnificent victory with just the small matter of an FA Cup Final against the Mugsmashers (just a few years before Arseblogs invented that moniker). Sadly, there is no surviving video footage of this match. More match details with still images are available here and the memories of Holics who were on the spot are available here.

Thirty-three years and four league titles later (doesn’t time pass quickly), on 25th April 2004, an Arsenal team, hitherto undefeated in the league, faced the Marshdwellers five games from the end of the season, needing only a draw to win the league as they had a healthy points gap and a game in hand over the mob from the bus stop. With four more games after this one the opposition had no opportunity to prevent Arsenal’s thirteenth title but they not only had their usual incentive to win the North London Derby but were also desperate to end our unbeaten run and, sitting only six points above the relegation places, keen to gather the points at our expense. Arsenal took the lead through Patrick Vieira after only 3 minutes and Robert Pires appeared to seal victory on 23 minutes after a trademark 12-pass move. However, a 25 yarder from Redknapp got the opposition back into the game on the hour and an added time penalty from Keane sent the home fans into raptures thinking they had prevented us winning the league. Well, they have to be mentally challenged to support Sp*dz and every August they think it’s going to be their season, so why would you be surprised that they got that wrong? They then had to watch Arsenal players and fans celebrating another league title on their cabbage patch. More details and players’ memories of the match are available here.

So, we’ve done it there under pressure before. We won there last season 2-0, with first half goals from Lloris (og) and Ødegaard. Why not do it again?

The Opposition

The Marshdwellers were beside themselves with delight with Postecoglu’s start to the season, with chants of “We’ve got our Tottnumb back!” Whatever that means. He maintained the dynamic pressing style and high defensive  line that his Celtic teams had adopted but there the threat they faced week in and week out was pretty weak and they could generally outscore their opposition. When that approach was criticised as risky after an early reverse, Postecoglu proclaimed that “I’m not going to change our style for anybody, mate” in another interview replete with mateyness. I don’t know if he’s been true to his word (MA8 implied in his pre-match presser that he has been) but his team come off a 4-0 drubbing at Newcastle in which two of the Saudi goals came from long balls over that high line leaving Isak one-on-one with the keeper. An opportunity for any of our speedy wingers or for Kai or Jesús, methinks. On the other goals conceded, the Sp*dz’ defence was wide open for Gordon (will we get that space?) and vulnerable on a deep corner to a late arriving Schär (cue Kai Havertz). Sadly I think the somewhat hyped Van de Ven who looked like Bambi on ice, will have changed his boots. That game had very bizarre stats: Tottnumb had 73% possession in an away game and yet had only 11 vs 18 shots, 2 vs 5 on target and only 3 vs 16 corners. What were they doing with the ball? 

Tottnumb have had a 15 day rest to prepare for this game, during which we have not only lost to Villa and Bayern (which must have heartened them) but also have then done a thoroughly professional job away at Wolves and utterly thrashed another strutting mob of capital poseurs 5-0. That’s plenty of time for work on the training pitch but also time for a few anxieties and doubts to creep in.

Apparently their first choice left back Udogie (who looks quite good) is definitely out but they have Davies (who usually looks rather less good) to step in. Meanwhile they are sweating over right back Porro (who does represent an offensive threat in Ange’s system) with the somewhat less reliable Emerson Royal on standby. The extremely irritating, somewhat erratic but frequently dangerous Richarlison is available again after three weeks out.

I expect Tottnumb to continue with their high defensive line but to compress the space to their midfield in an attempt to emulate the midfield block that Emery and Tüchel used to deny Ødegaard the spaces in which he weaves his magic. The solution? That ball over the top or through a channel to the well-timed runner. We have the men both to make that pass and others to make that run. Tottnumb’s offensive plan will be to break swiftly in transition when we lose the ball using three speedy forwards who are likely to be Johnson, Richarlison and Son with Kulusevski, Gil and the ‘deadly’ Werner to bring on when fresh legs are needed. We will need our defenders to be focused. The opposition’s creative talent in midfield is Maddison who since his move from Lesta has morphed into a whining and snarling midfield irritant who I confidently expect to earn himself a yellow card if the referee is competent. Expect him to be complemented in his defensive duties by the muscle of Betancur and Bissouma.

The Arsenal

For the first time this season, Mikel Arteta has no injury concerns. Jurrien Timber faces a late fitness test today (Saturday) after a good run out and spectacular goal for the under-21’s in midweek. I suspect this match is going to be too early and too intense for him even to make the bench. With a full squad fit and ready, Mikel has a few positions where he has some key personnel decisions to make, notably left back, central midfield, centre forward and left wing. You all know all the options. I think he could do no better than to start the eleven who so imperiously swept the bus stop mob aside in that glorious second half on Tuesday, saving the guile of Jorginho and Zinchenko, the trickery of Jesús and the pace of Martinelli for the latter stages. Therefore, I expect a starting eleven of:

Reyna

White, Saliba, Gabriel, Tomiyasu

Ødegaard, Partey, Rice

Saka, Havertz, Trossard.

The Holic Pound

You’ve heard it here before. My Holic pound is going to Ukraine. However, as a service to our readers, I can report that Paddy Power are offering 9/1 on both 1-0 and 2-0 to the good guys, 10/1 on 3-1 and 12/1 on 3-0 to the good guys. If you are in dreamland you can get 22/1 on 4-0 to the good guys.

Unlike Bertie’s boys back in ’71 or the Invincibles in ‘04, we need a win here. Despite the exhortation of the title of this piece we need calm heads and ice-cold ruthlessness. We must remember the midweek example of Goodison and not fall into the Derby trap in which form and superior talent go out the window. We need to be cold assassins not street brawlers. Let’s dictate the way the game plays out, not rise to their baiting. If we can produce the form we showed on Tuesday (minus the brain farts from Saliba), I’m confident we can win this game. This team is very close to the real deal and as BtM has been arguing for weeks, the addition of TP5 seems to have added a verticality in attack that we haven’t hitherto exploited. It should be noted that, should we keep our seventh consecutive away clean sheet, it would be an Arsenal record. It should also be added that if we at least draw, it will herald St Totteringham’s arrival and finally, should we win, we ensure a place in next season’s Champions League.

Let’s do it, Gunners!

There’s a lot about Chelsea in this preview but rather than apologise for that, I will invite you to revel in the details of the complete mess into which they have gotten themselves. Fortunately, I started researching all this some time ago as it turned out to be a rats’ nest of huge proportions. I haven’t had time to work too many jokes into this preview but the whole thing is really quite funny, and just deserts for a fake club and a Russian owner intent on buying success with the ill-gotten gains of a rotten regime which has murdered untold numbers of civilians in an independent country who do not want to be beholden to it. Abramovich and Chelsea initiated the hyper-inflation which has ruined football for so many clubs and supporters, and I hate them for it.

The summer transfer window has long been a time of great turmoil and excitement at Stamford Bridge – at least for Chelsea fans. Regardless of whether the previous season had been one of success or failure, the Chelsea squad could likely face big changes in the space of the next month or so. If there was a rising star on the market or an established one with enough trophies under their belt, Roman Abramovich just had to have him for Chelsea – or his own ego.

Ballack, Shevchenko, Essien, Hazard, and our own Kai Havertz were all big names on the market at some stage during Abramovich’s 19 years at the club, and all were lured to Chelsea with no regard to cost or even the manager’s plans. To hell with the finances or the rules, £900,000-a-week losses were the cost of doing business for the Russian whose club was a mirror for his own reflected glory. 

We all eagerly anticipated and then cheered the day when sanctions from the British government forced Abramovich to put the club up for sale in 2022. Surely, Chelsea could not find another Abramovich, willing to buy his way to silverware on the same scale? Even if they did, most Premier League owners did not want to compete with sovereign wealth funds or corrupt private individuals whose aim in football terms is world domination.
And so a new era of restrictions on uncontrolled spending and losses began with the introduction of the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR). Relatively suddenly, clubs like Everton and Nottingham Forest have discovered that these rules can bite, and while we all wait for Manchester City to be put to the sword, Chelsea will be fretting more than most. 

Their current owners may not be ploughing their own personal wealth into a vanity project, but they have been spending like people who do, with over a billion pounds spent on mostly young players on ultra long-term contracts. Had those gambles resulted in Premier League contention and regular qualification for the Champions League, Chelsea’s owners might have been celebrated for establishing a new recruitment model for the industry. Instead, the club is set to miss out on the revenue from top tier European club football for a second successive season while its cost base has been inflated by the amortisation of its transfer binge.

As this summer looms on the horizon, supporters are not dreaming of who might arrive at Stamford Bridge, but who the owners may feel compelled to sell. Such deals may well have to be agreed before the June 30th soft deadline, as those provisions will inform the Premier League’s 2023-24 PSR calculations.

Why Chelsea’s 2024 summer looks bleak

As football finance expert Kieran Maguire puts it, “2024 is probably looking like a bit of a car crash.” According to analysis carried out for CBS Sports, prior to any summer sales, Chelsea are on course for a second year out of three where their pre-tax losses are in excess of £100 million. This puts Todd Boehly, Behdad Eghbali and the rest of the ownership group in an extremely difficult position. The Premier League allows exceptions for PSR calculations that include spending on academy football, the women’s game and community investment.

Even with generous allowances for those, CBS Sports calculations estimate that Chelsea’s losses, post-mitigations for a three-year window, would be around £210 million, double the Premier League’s top limit. Chelsea, for their part, maintain they are not concerned and that they are confident they can comply with all Financial Fair Play and PSR requirements, avoiding any league imposed penalties. We’ll see!

Across the league, those penalties have become realities for teams already. Everton and Nottingham Forest have been hit by points deductions for breaches some way short of what Chelsea’s might be. Everton exceeded their £105 million limit by £19.5 million and Forest’s breach was £34.5 million over their threshold of £61 million (a lower amount as they had only just been promoted to the Premier League). Both were judged to be significant breaches by independent commissions. The only apparent path to compliance for next season for Chelsea is sell, sell, sell.

“I don’t know how you can view the financial situation for Chelsea in 2023-24 and reach a conclusion that they won’t be forced to sell before June 30, or at least try their best given the Nottingham Forest decision,” says a leading analyst who spoke to CBS Sports on condition of anonymity. “When it is suggested that Chelsea need to get £100 million from player trading in that two-week window when the Euros is going on, that seems right to me.”
CBS’s analysis of Chelsea’s finances suggests that there is no imminent prospect of the picture improving. A projection for their 2024-25 accounts predicts another operating loss, this one in the region of £130 million. This far out, certain assumptions have to be made. One is that commercial revenue will remain static, given that they will be out of the Champions League again. Soon after Clearlake Capital bought Chelsea, part owner Jose E. Feliciano spoke of his belief that the club could register a billion in revenue during their ownership. That’s a far cry from these assumptions.
“My suspicion is that when Feliciano said that he was looking at Chelsea’s commercial revenue relative to the traditional big six,” says the analyst. “It was an underperformer there and so there was a sense that Chelsea had low hanging fruit. The challenge with those assumptions is that they are conditioned on a certain legacy performance that’s quickly moving away.”In the absence of sporting improvement, it’s not clear how they would get to those numbers.”

The second set of assumptions is based around involvement in competition outside Europe. Given the state of the Premier League table, the Champions League looks beyond Mauricio Pochettino’s side, who would have to make up a 17 point gap in 10 games just to make the fifth spot that might, dependent on English club’s performances in Europe this season, unlock another seat at the top table. The Europa League and Europa Conference League are possibilities, although now only through league finish as they lost in the FA Cup at the weekend when Manchester City beat them in the semi-finals. The likelihood is that they will not even qualify for a spot in the Conference League. One of their main sources of increased revenue then would appear to be ticket price rises – surely an unpopular option for fans who are already unimpressed by the club’s decline. 

Amortisation

And this is where Chelsea’s great veil of amortisation gets drawn back. They were able to spend more than £1 billion in the transfer market since the takeover by spreading the cost of big money signings such as Mykhailo Mudryk, Moises Caicedo and Enzo Fernandez over contracts significantly longer than the usual four to five years that might normally be handed out. When it comes to reflecting those transfers in their accounts, the cost is spread over the life of a player’s contract. Mudryk’s £100 million deal might look staggering on paper, but spread over the cost of a seven and a half-year contract it is rather less of a burden in any one year.

That Chelsea managed to secure these deals before UEFA and the Premier League moved to limit the number of years a fee could be amortised over, made some see a whiff of genius from the ownership. Few appreciated that governing bodies might have a point when they said they were acting to discourage clubs from locking themselves into squads over the extreme long-term when the side effects could be profound.

Chelsea’s annual amortisation costs are not that out of sync with the rest of the Premier League, according to finance writer Swiss Ramble. The £160 million they have on their books is not even the highest in England, trailing Manchester United at £170 million. A key difference, however, aside from the revenue gulf between those two clubs, is the speed at which United could bring theirs down.

United have 11 first-team players on their books, with three or four years left on their contracts come the end of the season, and 20 who would be out of contract in two years. At Chelsea, there are 23 players who are tied to the club to 2028 and beyond. Many of their most expensive acquisitions – Mudryk, Fernandez, Caicedo, Nicolas Jackson and Romeo Lavia among them – are contracted until 2030. 

If the plan had clicked, Chelsea might just be in dream land now, a squad of bright young things achieving greatness while tied to contracts that are relatively cheap by Premier League big-six standards. Instead, they seem to have found themselves in the downside scenario. Amortising the value over seven or eight years means that every year the book value of Chelsea’s squad is cut by a far smaller fraction. For it to make any financial sense for Mudryk to be sold, for instance, it would have to be at a price which is higher than the asset is worth to Chelsea. That almost certainly will not happen when his paper value remains so high, and potential buyers are now very aware of their own spending limits.

The latest ruse

The following explanation is from Jacob Steinberg in the Guardian on how Chelsea are trying to escape punishment under the PSR rules by selling themselves two hotels:—————————— “Premier League clubs reacted with exasperation after seeing that Chelsea eased their financial position with the £76.5m sale of two hotels to a sister company, in a deal that appears to have helped the club avoid a breach of profitability and sustainability rules. Chelsea’s accounts, published last weekend, revealed the club made a loss of £89.9m in the last financial year. That figure would have been £166.4m without the hotels sale from Chelsea FC Holdings Ltd to Blueco 22 Properties Ltd. Both companies are subsidiaries of Chelsea’s holding company, Blueco 22 Ltd.

The move to sell the Millenium and Copthorne hotels, and their car parking, was not blocked by the league. But Chelsea’s ability to exploit a loophole in the rules has not gone down well with everyone. An executive at one top-flight club was incredulous after learning of the deal, and another club were left with “raised eyebrows” and were said to have read the accounts “with interest”. There was a sense of resignation at another club, where a figure said that the deal came as “little – surprise”.

The hotel sales were yet to be assessed as “fair market value” under the league’s associated-party transactions rules, according to Chelsea’s accounts. Any decrease in the £76.5m valuation could place Chelsea’s finances under renewed pressure. The accounts were signed off in December 2023, six months after the hotels deal took place. Chelsea and the league have not confirmed whether a fair-market assessment has been concluded. It has been pointed out by Chelsea that they appointed two independent valuers to assess the club’s valuation of the hotels and that no issues were raised.

The last week has revealed that the hand of Roman Abramovich reached far beyond West London. It seems the tanks the Russian famously parked on the front lawn at Highbury were also firing £50 notes in the direction of Holland and Eredivisie club Vitesse Arnhem. Following an investigation into allegations that the club was secretly controlled by Abramovich and received illegal payments from him, they have been deducted 18 points, ensuring their relegation. It seems to me that other clubs, fans and indeed the Premier League know exactly what is going on, and it is all flying totally in the face of the spirit and intentions of the league’s stipulations. The one thing I can’t find much opinion on is why the League are so slow to do anything about it. Unless, of course, you are “lowly” Nottingham Forest or hard up Everton. Or maybe that’s a clue.Given how close Chelsea appear to be to the PSR line, there does not appear to be much room for creativity. The Premier League has a big fish to catch here, hopefully as a warm up for the biggest of all, Manchester C115y. Fingers crossed. 

The teams

Fofana, Lavia, Ugochukwu, James, Nkunku and Colwill are all out for Chelsea, so they’ll have to dip into their 137 strong squad. Pochettino will doubtless be whining regardless of who does and doesn’t play because whining is what he does most of. And, frankly, who cares? Their only other doubt is keeper Edouard Mendy but he is a worry for quite different reasons – a building in Chelsea was going up in flames. A distressed woman, tightly clutching her baby, was spotted screaming for her life and for someone to save her baby. No one responded until Edouard Mendy arrived at the scene. He shouted up, “Lady, I’m Edouard Mendy! I’m Chelsea’s No. 1 goalkeeper! I’ll save your baby for sure, it’s my job!” The woman responded doubtfully, “I’m 15 stories up! Surely you won’t be able to save my child!” Confidently, Mendy responded, “Don’t worry! Have faith in me. I will save your baby, just as I have performed time and time again important saves for Chelsea.” Persuaded, the woman put her faith in Mendy and dropped her baby for him. Down the baby went, 15 stories, 150 feet. Perfectly positioned, with great confidence, and true to character, Mendy clutched the baby in mid-air, bounced it on the ground a few times, and punted it out of bounds.

The Arsenal

Definitely still unavailable for this game is Jurrien Timber, with this from Mikel Arteta at the weekend: “He’s going to play a game with the under-21s against Blackburn on Monday and after that we will see better where he is, how he felt. He looks really good in training but it’s that last step now. We need to have the certainty that he’s ready to go.” Takehiro Tomiyasu is the only other injury worry but is expected to be available according to Sports Mole.

I’m guessing Arteta will go with his policy of making changes only where necessary, but I would like to see us really go at them from the start, so my stab at the team is:
Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Kiwior; Ødegaard, Jorginho, Rice; Saka, Havertz, Martinelli;

The Holic Pound
As something a bit different to the usual match odds, if you are mad enough to bet on this title race with 5 games to go, Paddy Power are offering 3/1 for us to win the league. (C115y are offered at 6/10 and Liverpool at 9/2 – just for information, mind!) For this match, we are priced around 8/15 to win, the draw is 4/1 and a Chelsea win is 5/1. Bet365 have Martinelli at 2/1 to score at any time, or Kai Havertz at 7/4 – got to be, hasn’t it ?

The Officials
Referee: Simon Hooper; 4th Official: Graham Scott; VAR: Peter Bankes. Kick-off is on Tuesday 23rd April, at 20.00 UK. TV coverage on TNT Sport. Enjoy the game if you can ….. any win … any win … any win …

And so to Molineux, where Wolves await. That sound you hear is not howling but the clacking of loose wheels after the Villa and Bayern defeats. A weary team has to ensure that they do not come off in the Black Country on Saturday evening to avoid bringing this season’s journey of hope, ambition and advancement to an early end. This will be a game played in the mind as much as on the pitch.

Molineux memories

Somewhere in the bowels of Castle Ned lies a dogeared copy of a Charles Buchan’s Football Annual with evocative black and white photos of European club football under the lights at Molineux in the 1950s when Stan Cullis’s Wolverhampton Wanderers were a power in the land.

The story goes that Gabriel Hanot, editor of the French sports newspaper L’Equipe and acknowledged by UEFA as a founding father of the European Cup, was inspired by watching Wolves and the Hungarian Army side Honved play a friendly at Molineux in December 1954. Two down after 14 minutes, Wolves overpowered the tiring Honved of Puskas, Kocsis and Czibor in the Molineux mud to win 3-2. Following victory over Spartak Moscow the previous month and England’s 6-3 humiliation by the Hungarian national side at Wembley the previous year, the Daily Mail, ever the chest-thumper for Vainglorious Albion, declared Wolves ‘the Champions of the World’. 

Even being champions of Europe was beyond them. Mixing with Johnny Foreigner was still regarded in the isolationist halls of the FA as being too demeaning for Englishmen. Chelsea pulled out of the inaugural European Cup in 1955-56 after being ‘advised’ by the FA to withdraw. However, in 1958, Cullis, who had been one of the England players who had refused to make a Nazi salute in Berlin in 1938, raised two fingers to the FA, and Wolves became the second English club to play in the European Cup. 

Wolves received a first-round bye but were knocked out by Schalke 04 4-3 on aggregate in the second round. The following season, Cullis’s team, back-to-back Division One champions in 1957-58 and 1958-59, reached the quarter-finals. There, they lost to Barcelona 9-2 on aggregate — 4-0 in the Nou Camp and 5-2 at Molineux. Fitness, power and direct attacking won Wolves titles in the Football League, but its muscular long-ball game fell short against more skilful European teams.

Regardless, this was the most successful period of Wolves’ history. Cullis guided them to nine top-three finishes in his 16 seasons as manager, winning three league titles and two FA Cups with a team built around the half-back line of Bill Slater, Ron Flowers and England captain Billy Wright, later to manage at Highbury for four years in the 1960s with little distinction.

Wolves’ stadium takes its iconic name from the Molineux Pleasure Grounds, on part of which it was built in 1889. The Pleasure Grounds had once been the grounds of Molineux House, a property the eponymous ironmonger and banker Benjamin Molineux had acquired in 1744 from the estate of John Rotton in settlement of a £700 debt. The Rotton would not have the same exotic ring as Molineux, although there is still a Rotton Park district in Birmingham just 15 miles away that derives its name from the same family.
Wolves changed their instantly recognisable colours from black and old gold to black and gold after Molineux became one of the first grounds in Britain to install floodlights in September 1953. Cullis thought the brighter shirts would show up better under the lights. The colours come from Wolverhampton’s civic motto, Out of darkness cometh light or E tenebris oritur lux for the classicists in the bar.

The opposition

As GHF Predictathon players know well, Gary O’Neill’s team has exceeded expectations this season; Wolves sit in eleventh rather than the predicted bottom three. O’Neill played over 200 Premier League games for Portsmouth, Middlesborough, West Ham and Norwich as an old-school, workhorse midfielder. Yet the second youngest manager in the Premier League after Vincent Kompany — O’Neill turns 41 next month — is developing a reputation as a leading light of a new generation of progressive English coaches. 

Last season, he took over at Bournemouth after the Cherries 9-0 thrashing by Liverpool and steered an apparently relegation-doomed side to the safety of 15th. He was thanked with the sack at the end of the season. Wolves picked him up after Julen Lopetegui walked out in a huff just before this season started, with the club having sold four of his best players to make ends meet.

O’Neill has developed a knack for giving top sides grief. Last season, his Bournemouth team was two up at the Emirates in the game Reiss Nelson rescued with his famous last-gasp winner. His Wolves’ scalps have included Manchester City and doubles over Chelsea and the neighbours. His injury-depleted side lost only narrowly 2-1 at the Emirates in December, in the game in which Bukayo Sako scored his 100th Arsenal goal. 

O’Neill likes to set up a 3-4-2-1. He has Arteta-like attention to detail, customising match-day tactics to Wolves’ opponents and seeking the marginal gains that add up to significant improvement. Against us, I would expect him to play something akin to a 3-5-2 to create the mid-block against which we struggle. Wolves will look to keep things compact when out of possession, make it difficult for us to play through the middle and, in possession, stretch us wide and get the ball to their assist king, the much-admired winger Pedro Neto to play in their leading scorers South Korean international Hee-chan Hwang (10 goals ) and Brazilian international Matheus Cunha (11), whose loan from Atletico Madrid was made permanent in the summer in return for a 50 million euros fee.

The return last weekend of Hwang and talisman Cunha from injury will encourage Wolves’ belief that they can end a mini-slump that has put their season at risk of petering out. They are winless in five in all competitions, including last Saturday’s draw at Nottingham Forest. Their small squad lacks the depth to cover their lengthy injury list, which now also includes centre-back Craig Dawson and Algerian international left-back Rayan Ait-Nouri, who has reportedly attracted the interest of ourselves and the Scousers. 

Wolves can be tricky but not impossible to beat at Molineux. They have lost five of 15 home league games. Our recent form there has been up and down, with three wins and two losses in the past five visits, although we had not previously lost there since 1978, a 1-0 defeat in which Kevin Stead made the first of his only two appearances for us.

The Arsenal

Which team Arteta fields is guesswork. He says everyone except Timber is available. Plenty of tired legs and minds were in evidence in the second halves of the Villa and Bayern games. In his pre-match press conference, Arteta again pointed a finger at the playing load on his players, but he has rotated only lightly.

Some of the team look to be carrying knocks, while others have started running on fumes. For Saturday, Arteta must strike a balance between refreshing spirits and recharging legs, plus keep one eye on Tuesday’s game against the mob from the Bus Stop. I would like to see Partey start to give the skipper or Rice a deserved and much-needed break and to provide more vertical passes from midfield, but I doubt the Ghanaian is fit enough or that any of the leaders in the team will want to stand down. This could be a game for ESR’s direct running, though. Thus:

Raya

White Saliba Gabriel Tomiyasu

Ødegaard Rice ESR

Saka Havertz Trossard

It goes without saying that this is a must-win. If we can revert to eliminating the mistakes that have crept into our defending in the past two or three games and start taking our first-half chances, we should be able to achieve the victory we need. City plays Chelsea in an FA Cup semi-final on Saturday, and Liverpool does not visit Craven Cottage in the league until Sunday. We can go back to the top at least overnight. A calm and controlled 3-1 under the lights at Molineux would do it.

Enjoy the game, ‘holics, near and far.