In a parallel universe, Everton thrashed City last weekend, we beat Brighton, and hopes of a Premier League title remain vibrant. In the harsh reality of the City Ground, Nottingham, late Saturday afternoon, a crestfallen team must pick itself up, knowing that anything less than a win against the hosts will hand the blue Mancs the title that evening — and the first leg of the treble they are so expensively chasing — without having to kick a ball and that even a win will only require them to beat Chelsea at the Emptihad the next day.
Once the final two games are done, there will be time to reflect on what might have been and needs to be done. For now, the best we can hope is that Arteta’s tyros use their final two outings of the season to lay down a marker of intent for next term. Out with a bang, not a whimper, is the rallying cry.
The last time a Forest preview fell my way was in January 2022. It was a prelude to a shock 1-0 FA Cup Third Round defeat. I noted that the hosts, resurgent after a terrible start to their Championship season, could well be promoted to the Premiership for the first time since 1998-99. They are now clinging to that new-found status, occupying 16th place, three points above the drop zone. Survival is in their own hands, but they will go into the match knowing they will need four points from their final two games to be sure of staying up, although one draw would do it if Leeds and Leicester both lose this weekend.
Manager Steve Cooper, who worked magic last season following Chris Houghton’s sacking after taking a single point from Forest’s first seven games, made 30 changes — yes, 30 — to his squad on winning promotion, although a lengthy succession of injuries — ten is the current count — has trimmed the available number.
Of those we faced in the Cup in January 2022, only Brennan Johnson will likely be in the Forest squad, let alone start on Saturday. Goal scorer Lewis Grabban was one of those let go and is now without a club. That said, only Ben White, Martin Ødegaard and Bukayo Saka are likely to survive from our side that day, which featured a back four of Cedric Soares, Rob Holding, White and Nuno Tavares in front of Bernd Leno, with Calum Chambers, Pablo Mari and Said Kolasinac on the bench. So much has changed — for so much the better.
A bit of history
We avenged the Cup defeat in the home league game last October, 5-0. That was the first time we had scored five against Forest since the final day of 1960 when we beat them 3-5 at the City Ground, David Herd scoring a hat-trick.
The historical curiosity of that game was that it was Frank O’Neill’s debut. Who, I hear you ask. You could be forgiven for missing the rest of his career. The Irish right-winger made his last and only other appearance in the Football League against Blackpool in April 1961. He then returned to Ireland, enjoying a long career with Shamrock Rovers and winning 20 caps for Ireland, still the most by a player at a League of Ireland club.
In both games, O’Neill came in for the injured Danny Clapton, who in November 1958 played for England against Wales in Birmingham and Arsenal against Juventus at Highbury on the same day, as did Jack Kelsey, who had been in goal for Wales. A police escort from Euston got the two men to Highbury three minutes before kick-off. And modern players complain about being overplayed!
The opposition
Cooper reverted to the three-man defence for last weekend’s draw at the Bus Stop, a formation that served him well in the Championship but which he largely eschewed in the Premiership until of late. However, the word from our monk on the banks of the Trent is that against us, he will deploy the 4-3-3 that brought the crucial win over Southampton two weeks ago. Four at the back and no wingbacks make room for Johnson to play alongside Morgan Gibbs-White and joint-top scorer Taiwo Awoniyi in attack. Johnson’s pace will be key if Forest is to get behind our high defensive line. Now that the well-oiled blue Mancs and chip-stealing Seagulls have shown that playing rope-a-dope at the back and then going long is a way to beat our high press, every man and his dog will try it.
In midfield, expect Ryan Yates, Orel Mangala and Danilo, the in-form young Brazilian who arrived in January from Palmeiras and scores more goals than might be expected of a DM. They will be ahead of a back four of ex-Spud Serge Aurier, the veteran Brazilian Felipe, also a January arrival, from Atletico Madrid, Moussa Niakhate, a French-born Senegal international, and Renan Lodi, another Atletico alumnus. Ex-PSG and Real Madrid stopper Keylor Navas will be between the sticks; Dean Henderson is on a long-term-injured list that includes Neco Williams, Scott McKenna, Jack Colback, Omar Richards, Giulian Biancone and Chris Wood. Yes, you can’t see Wood for the Forest (I’ll get my coat!)
However, watch for Niakhate’s long, looping throws into the penalty area. They caused Liverpool and Chelsea some grief.
The Arsenal
Will Arteta let his stalwarts atone for their Brighton disappointment? Or will he shuffle the pack? I have no idea. Martinelli and Zinchenko join Saliba, Tomiyasu and Elneny as off-games for the rest of the season.
Without Zinchenko and KT3 not being a one-for-one substitute, we struggle to control the midfield, especially with Partey so off-form that he cannot get into the starting XI. Xhaka has to play deeper, where his lack of pace is more exposed, and Ødegaard becomes more muted. It might be time for more than a bit-part role for ESR. Yet, it is difficult to see where he would fit in, as it increasingly does for next season, too. In his pre-game press conference, Arteta talked of players that ‘we haven’t had the best out of this season’ and ‘a few players who haven’t had the minutes or the performances’. That seems to sum up the Croydon De Bruyne.
I expect the starting XI to be:
Ramsdale
White, Kiwior, Gabriel, Tierney
Jorginho, Ødegaard, Xhaka
Saka, Jesus, Trossard
Second place is secure, but with only two wins in our past seven games, we need to re-establish the winning habit. Did I mention that we should not end this season with a whimper?
The ‘holics pound
The game is Forest’s final home game of the season. Twenty-seven of their 34 points have been won at the City Ground, a haul that may explain why the gentlemen of the turf have us as favourites but at not particularly generous odds. There is little value in an away win unless we score four, with 4-1 at 20s. If you think Ramsdale will celebrate his contract extension with a clean sheet, you can find 4-0 at 25s.
Enjoy the game, ‘holics, near and far.
Bang. Not a Whimper. Please.
Enjoyable preview, Ned. I really don’t know what to expect tomorrow. I’d love to see us take six points from the final two games.
An excellent preview and a pleasure to read. But I didn’t realize the monks were allowed outside the castle tuo conduct their arduous and lengthy research duties. Lucky soul, this one who was allowed to go up the Trent. We can only hope he will keep some modicum of restraint and not overindulge his newly found liberties. COYG
Ned that’s a terrific preview that generated more interest in the game than I feel
I think your team is spot on and I think we will snatch a 2-1 win in a lively game
Nice preview, Ned. Just win, baby!
Good one Ned
Interesting that Friar Tuck is nowhere to be seen in your pic, no archery training for him, probably at the Monastery having a slap up lunch, gorging on spit roasted suckling pig with all the trimmings. !!
As the Season winds down, knowing Arteta he will not let the players park the cue in the rack.
Apart from pride ,we still have a record to aim for, being the most wins ever by an Arsenal team in the EPL.
We currently sit on 25, if we win the last 2 games we will surpass the current record of 26.
We can also equal the 2nd best points tally of 87pts as well.
Also the away fans deserve a fitting finale on their travels, having given monumental support throughout the season.
So I am anticipating a strong positive performance and plenty of goals, as Forest clearly don’t do defence very well, having conceded 67, only behind Bournemouth and Leeds as the worst in the league.
Also Ned,
I would like to thank you and the Monks for all your sterling work during the season assisting with requests for historical Arsenal details/facts and figures, and all round info about football in general, particularly from me. !!
Witness the little known story in your post above, about both Danny Clapton and Jack Kelsey each playing 2 matches on the same day, who knew.
You would not get that deep insight into Arsenal history in a pre or post match blog on any other site on the planet.
I don’t know where we would be without you.
I look forward to continuing for many seasons to come.
A supremely enjoyable preview Ned, as always containing some memorable bits of history for us to learn from.
Lots of good players in their them, including a few “once top class but now a bit old” category like Nevas, and I think Danilo was getting linked with us before he made the move from São Paulo to Nottingham.
Your team is the likeliest. But maybe there will be a surprise or two … like ESR (who is a better complement to Tierney than he is to Zinchenko) starting.
Come on Arsenal!
Nice preview, Ned. Truly, the monks haven’t been diligent in their research.
Given last week, along with the way we have been picking up season ending injuries the way Citeh pick up financial irregularity charges, I’m afraid I’m erring on the side of pessimism about this evening. Forest are still fighting for survival and, I imagine, will seek to cling on to points in the same manner as dust to an N17 trophy cabinet. I so hope Im wrong.
Either way it has been a hugely enjoyable season, with a return to fabulous football and a great stadium atmosphere. I’ll settle for that.
Thanks Ned – top top preview
As a teenager I regularly played two games on a Saturday – in the morning for the school and in the afternoon for the school Old Boys. No problem, although not quite international standard. I also backed up with a Sunday afternoon game in a local league.
As for Forest, not quite the days when “We hate Nottingham Forest…” began a popular song but still a potentially tricky day. I’m up for 2-0 and a solid performance.
UTA.
Cheers Ned, fantastic preview! I’d never heard of Frank O’Neill.
Beware the scenario suggested by CER @7. I also fear that possibility but hope Super Mik has a rocket or three up his sleeve to prevent any recurrence of last week’s performance and/or last season’s whimper of a finishing few matches.
Going to watch this one with a mix of Arsenal and Forest fans, should be interesting…
Have a blast, Ollie.
The transfer rumour of the day:
“Manchester United and England defender Harry Maguire could move to West Ham or Tottenham with the 30-year-old out of favour with boss Erik ten Hag.”
What a match made in heaven, Maguire and Tottenham.
Thanks Ned. Your usual interesting, fact packed and on the money preview. Despite some shocking results there in the last few years, the City ground is one I always enjoy visiting, and I really like Nottingham as a city. Bridgeford in particular is sports mad, with Trent Bridge, Notts County and Forest all packed into a few hundred yards either side of the bridge and the river. To get into the away end you wander along streets of terraced houses until suddenly the ground appears – just like Highbury. It also has a great curry house in the Bombay Brasserie which boasts, inter alia, the best garlic naan I have ever eaten. Sadly I fell just short of the number of credits necessary, so won’t be there in Nottingham this afternoon.
This is going to be a severe mental and motivational test after last weekend against a team who are good at home (but pants away), and are fighting for their premier league life. As always, an early goal would help, and we may need the rub of the green to triumph.
I’ll predict a 1-1 draw, but hope I’m wrong. Come what may, it’s been a fabulous season to be following The Arsenal.
Thanks, Ned – another fine preview in your inimitable style.
I see you mentioned Omar Richards, the Forest player whose name bears some resemblance to the little known, erstwhile Arsenal striker Omar Gould. He was hopeless and the only thing about him worthy of note was that he claimed to have TWO dads – known as Omar Gould Fathers. 😉
Ned, I forgot to add my thanks to Clive’s for all your painstaking research through the season 🙏🏻🙏🏻
It’s important that our players turn up today because we simply must match the intensity with which we can expect Forest to approach this final home opportunity for them to preserve their Premier League status. Our players have put in a superb effort this season and nearly toppled the oil-doped mob from east Manchester but there’s no place for a slackening off of effort or for our players’ heads to be ‘on the beach’ already or for them to play like they are wearing flip-flops. If they do that then MA8 is not the man I think he is and the clear out will be even bigger than is being predicted. We need to finish this season as we started and display the skill and determination that we will bring to next season.
Ned, I too wish to add my thanks to Clive’s and Trev’s for all the facts and figures you have provided this season. Invaluable contributions, sir. Offer the monks an extra digestive biscuit to share for their year’s work.
Thanks Ned for a great preview and trip down memory lane. Danny Clapton had a name that resonated at the time as being a nearby location to the HoF. IIRC he won a single England cap – his only skill set was to run fast past the opposing full back and punt the ball into the penalty area – occasionally reaching an Arsenal forward. Jack Kelsey on the other hand arguably Wales’ greatest goalkeeper ( although Neville Southall would win that accolade if girth was the question ) and he ran The Arsenal shop adjacent to the East Stand following his retirement in the late 50s and 60s.
Onto todays match and it’s a very tricky encounter. Forest are a hard opponent on their home soil and we will need to be at our best to get something from this. A hard thought 2-1 is my hope. Forest have gone through up & down periods in my time starting with them reaching the FA cup final in 1957?. One of their leading players was Reg Dwight who had his leg broken in a tackle and Forest had to play a large part of the match with 10 men – no substitutes in those days. Reg Dwight better known in later days as Elton John’s uncle.
Back to today’s match just win baby!
COYRRR
Thanks Ned, great preview as always, and thanks to Uply too for some more blasts from the past. And congrats to Uply as well, now that I think of it, a win on penalties in the Holics Ropey League Cup Quarter Finals has booked a semi final against the Mikelin Stars this weekend.
High Bar will be up against Los Tejas Gooners, a winner by a solitary point against the depressed gooners, in the other semi final – good luck everyone!
Thanks, all. Pleased to be at service over the facts and stats.
Since so many are in, let me repost TTG’s @81 from the previous drinks gauging interest in a proposed prediction game for next season.
You might have noticed some correspondence between Ned and I in the bar earlier in the week. I was mentioning a very enjoyable prediction competition that I enter every year where, at the start of the season, you put clubs in the order you think they will finish. The results are worked out by looking at the squared differences in your predictions.
It is far too mathematical for me, but Ned is happy to run it next season.
It would be a nice way to generate some money for charity, and ideally, we would support something that was very close to Dave Faber’s heart.
It requires an entry in August, and then you track how your prediction works out over the season. A basic entry fee of £10 shouldn’t prove too taxing and may generate a nice sum for our chosen charity.
The prize is simply the glory of being the Goonerholic prediction master. Given that some people are also in the Europey League, a massive double is on offer, and it provides interest and a lot of surprises through the season.
I’d be happy to collect contributions and pay the charity, and Ned is happy to send out the spreadsheets on a regular basis.
Can I ask who would be happy to take part on this basis? It’s a lot of fun and a good test of our ability to pick the surprise teams of the season. Can you register your interest here so we can see if there is a real interest in doing it?
Uply@17: You catch Danny Clapton to a T: blistering pace but little end product.
Two others should be mentioned as a footnote to the two games in a day anecdote: Our wing-half Dave Bowen, who had captained his country to the World Cup quarter-finals earlier in the year, and his compatriot, the incomparable John Charles. Bowen was injured in the international match, spending the second half limping on the left wing, so he could not play in the evening as well, while Juventus had refused to release their centre-forward John Charles for the international to keep him fresh for Highbury.
bt8@2: The monks are everywhere, but you never know they are there…
If that only requires one entry and then maths being done automatically, count me in, Ned.
(I always end up not bothering updating my fantasy football teams, especially once logged out of the app without recollection of my password….).
And if it requires more, count me in too just for the tenner donation.
Good man, Ollie. It is just one submission ahead of the new season and the spreadsheet does the rest.
Arsenal XI: Ramsdale, White, Kiwior, Gabriel, Xhaka, Jorginho, Partey, Odegaard, Saka, Trossard, Jesus.
Subs: Turner, Tierney, Smith Rowe, Nketiah, Holding, Vieira, Bandeira, Cozier-Duberry, Walters
Is that 3 CBs or we are going to see Xhaka as a LB one last time?
Xhaka the new Zinchenko?
Mauro Bandeira, the Barnet-raised box-to-box midfielder, is an intriguing choice for the bench.
I already thought KT would leave this summer. Must be a tough for him to take this one.
If Xhaka is the new Zin…. Who is the new Xhaka? Or it’s some kind of 3-5-2
Can I get an early prediction in for next season’s finishing positions – Spurs, 14th.
They are in one hell of a mess – no manager, Kane leaving, loan players going back, like Longlet, crap defence ….. actually they might take 14th right now 🤣
UTA!
I’m in for the predictions for next season! Cheers Peter/Ned.
Seems like TP ar right back.
Shit, we just gave them a goal
That was hard labour. We carved out a couple of half chances but did not nearly move the ball quickly enough to open them up regularly. It’s been hard labour for the players (with all the manhandling – is this a wrestling franchise now?) and equally punitive for watching Gooner.
Need to change things (including the formation!) for the second half.
No bang. Mostly whimper.
Worst game of the season I’d say. We could have won last Sunday’s in the first half. We didn’t look like winning today at any stage.
Well, things didn’t improve much 2nd half
Totally whimper.
Cannot say we even deserved to salvage a draw out of that, although why didn’t VAR look at the incident when Jesus was hauled down off the ball?
Oooph.
That was no fun. The boss got everything wrong in the first half and then did nothing to change it at half time. Let’s hope this is a game he is actually learning from, because it was blatant to every man and his dog that Kiwior at LB and Partey at RB was gonna look like… exactly what it looked like.
Forest’s goal is very lucky. A poor pass by Odegaard and a tackle by Gabriel that ricocheted in. If the score had been level in the last twenty minutes the crowd would have been nervous and maybe we could have squeeked a winner.
However, we were set up for failure today. And, when you aren’t playing well, just don’t concede unnecessarily. I can’t even see the pass Odegaard was trying to play, and it cost us.
Mind you, it didn’t cost us much, there was not much to play for, and life is too short to be too concerned. A win to finish the season against Wolves would be much appreciated lads.
We huffed and we puffed but we came up well short against the massed ranks of the Paul McCartney fan club. Strange selection, strange formation and unsurprisingly ineffective performance despite much effort.
Agree about the formation and Arteta not making the right fixes when it was clear it wasn’t working. Should have yanked Partey for Tierney and played a back-four of White, Kiwior, Gabriel and Tierney with Xhaka or ESR in midfield.
I agree with Btm.That was the worst game of the season.
Sadly despite considerable effort, as Arteta said we wouldn’t have scored had we played for hours . Arteta picked the wrong team, failed to restructure it and a lot of players had shockers.
I’m a bit ambivalent about Kiwior, Vieira and not completely convinced by Trossard but on days like this it’s easy to overreact .
TTG@38: Had Ødegaard not given the ball away for their goal and Awoniyi not got the rub of the green with Gabriel’s tackle, that game could very well have ended 0-0. Forest fought and defended well but Ramsdale wasn’t exactly overworked.
TTG.
Harsh on Kiwior. He’s a CB. Gabriel would be equally unable to contribute from an attacking sense if he were played at LB.
His performance knocked onto Trossard’s. Martinelli dodged a bullet in a game when he would’ve got (non) service like that.
Vieira has not yet shown why we payed big money for him. He needs to step it up next season. He reminds me of Pepe; not strong enough, not defensively capable, not a hard worker, goes missing too often.
City can fuck off.
The dark clouds hang over everything City do. Their dodgy shenanigans (Chelsea, PSG, and other sports washed plastic clubs) is to ensure every club in the country now has to pay over inflated fees and wages to try and play catch up.
Pep started his 2nd XI against Chelsea: Ortega, Laporte, Akanji, Walker, Phillips, Foden, Gómez, Lewis, Mahrez, Palmer, and Álvarez.
The bench is Rúben Dias, Stones, Gündogan, Haaland, Grealish, Rodri, De Bruyne, Bernardo Silva and Ederson.
Ridiculous.
The starting lineup is good enough for a top-four finish in its own right, which shows you the depth of resources the other 19 teams are up against.
Good day to pick Haaland as triple captain
Were there football matches played this weekend? i thought the season was over.
Only abroad, baff.
A very good season which could have been even better. Worrying how flat we were in several games down the stretch. Shades of last year. We overplayed some (Saka, Xhaka) and underplayed others (ESR, Tierney). Don’t understand playing Kiwior and Partey out of their natural positions yesterday.
Big summer ahead for Edu. Getting Saliba to sign a new contract has to be priority # 1.
I am not convinced by either Jesus or Eddie. Would hate to see Balogun leave without a run in the team.
Despite our defeat at Chelsea the ladies are virtually assured of a Champions League place We have a vastly superior goal difference to City and a point to Aston Villa woukd definitely do it.
Given the extraordinary injury record we have had this season that’s a phenomenal achievement
*taps in*
Nice work Ollie! It’s quiet in here
Well, we knew it was going to hard to win the league. It’s the hope that kills you. But to put it into perspective, only City, Barca, PSG, and Napoli have better records than us in the big 5 leagues. Not too bad considering where we were last season. On to next season!
Back in the world of what really matters, these racist thugs need to be banned. When an entire stadium is chanting racist slogans, the time has come for the home team to forfeit the points.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/65666613
Nice 50 Ollie.
Good to see the Arsenal Women are doing well – not the easiest final game but the goal difference should see us home regardless.
@53
Yeah, I saw that too. To be fair La Lisa have taken some action in the past but it is clearly not enough.
Forfeit the points is reasonable or a closed doors replay. But I’d like to see the stadium closed to fans for 2 games, then 4 games if it happens again, then 8 etc. The onus should be on Valencia and any other club to do more than pious statements about the most severe action blah blah blah, work with the local police to identify, name and ban people – it is not difficult to do this if they really have the will.
That would be La Liga though Lisa might have taken some action for all I know!
The title fantasy has gone but this season we have seen an extraordinary effort from this Arsenal squad to set the pace and take the league title challenge to the last days of May against the ‘greatest team in the world’ built and funded through allegedly nefarious means. Without Arsenal’s revival this season, the Oilers would have cantered to the title weeks ago and the media who soak fans for the privilege of listening to ranting by bitter ex-pros would have had less opportunity to dramatise their offerings.
The great debate is now not which club will mount the challenge to Abou Dhabi Citeh next season but whether anyone can do so. I suppose that by virtue of their even larger sovereign wealth, the Saudis are best placed to do so. They will no doubt have studied the financial vehicles used by Abou Dhabi to circumvent the regulations and may hire expensive lawyers and accountants to devise new and inventive ways to do likewise. The Dippers will rejuvenate their midfield. Manure will buy a new striker. The Chavs will spend another £600m. None will match the Oilers.
Will the Arsenal manage to improve on this year’s challenge? I very much doubt it but I look forward to seeing what Arteta and Edu do over the summer.
Meanwhile, the power of the ordinary fan should not be overlooked. A boycott of Citeh games by fans of other PL clubs would send a message to the PL and the world that all is not well in the game here. It’s not happening of course but the glacial speed at which the investigation is moving, leaves one little hope that the Abou Dhabi behemoth can be stalled.
Superb article on Abu Dhabi FC in today’s Athletic (£££)
https://theathletic.com/4538682/2023/05/22/manchester-city-premier-league-champions/
And another excellent piece by Mike McDonald on Gunnerstown:
Interesting thoughts at 57 Bath. I really hope we can reinvent in the Summer and be that team leading the way to challenging City. However if we take our current form into next season we’ll be back where we were again.
Another fine piece by Jonathan Liew:
https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2023/may/21/manchester-city-can-manage-pitch-invasion-but-not-the-clubs-legacy
If only there were more sports journalists who went beyond superficial cheerleading.
Indeed, bath. If only there were more journalists who remembered what journalism is/should be about.
>>>>>>>