As it happens, it fell to my lot last season to write the preview for the first league game.
A new season. New faces. Big new hopes and dreams. Yet, for all the preseason promise and the pleasure and puns it provided, this is where the football starts in earnest. Arteta’s team must begin turning potential into potential realised from the minute we kick off the Premiership opener at Crystal Palace on Friday evening.
Sub in Nottingham Forest in North London for Palace in South London and Saturday lunchtime for Friday evening, and what I wrote a year ago still holds good.
After last season’s unexpected 2nd-place finish, with the top spot so cruelly slipping from our grasp at the last, expectations in the Goonerverse are running high, perhaps unrealistically so. Cooler heads — including Mikel Arteta’s — know this will be a more testing season than last.
For one, the burden of expectation has only increased with the draining of more than £200 million from the Kroenkes’ coffers to strengthen the squad with Rice, Timber, Havertz and Raya and to pay for new contracts for Saka, Saliba and Nelson.
For another, the competition will be fiercer:
- Regardless of the Community Shield result, come the league, Pep’s blue Mancs will be as driven as their manager to become the first PL side to win back-to-back trebles. They will be a younger and stronger side following their summer business;
- Ten Hag has been at the Old Toilet long enough to show he is starting to right the listing red Mancs and the jetsam is swelling;
- The Scousers are unlikely to have another season as off the pace as they were last term, especially as Klopp is close to completing his long overdue midfield rejuvenation with the surprise signing of Caceido;
- Eddie Howe is getting the money to build on the base he has patiently laid down at Newcastle, and with that will come high demands from his Saudi paymasters;
- Pochettino will get things sorted out at the Bus Stop, helped by Boehly turning his attention to buying clubs rather than Chelsea players wholesale;
- Emery and de Zerbi will keep Brighton and Aston Villa in the mix for European places but while Postecoglou is good enough to do the same for the neighbours, he also has to contend with being in Levyland.
For a third, all being well, it will be a long season, up to 61 games potentially. As 21st Century Gooner observed, keeping the squad primed and prepared for that many games so we do not suffer a recurrence of late-season exhaustion will be a new skill for Arteta to master.
The opposition
Last season, Forest defied the expectations of many, your correspondent included, by not being relegated straight back to the Championship. Untypically for a season that saw a record number of Premier League managers sacked, Evangelos Marinakis, the Greek businessman who bought Forest in 2017, stuck with the manager who in 2021-22 had taken the club from the Championship relegation zone to the Premiership. Steve Cooper endured 18 of the 38 Premier League’s match weeks in the relegation zone before his charges clambered up to 16th place by Match Week 38, four points clear of the drop.
Last season, Forest bought 30 — count them — 30 new players. This season has seen more modest reinforcement. Ola Aina, a Nigerian international right back, has arrived from Torino and Anthony Elanga, a 21-year-old left winger, from Man Utd. Chris Wood, ten years Elanga’s senior, has turned last season’s loan into a permanent move from Newcastle.
Jesse Lingard and some ageing club stalwarts, like Jack Colback, and journeymen like Andre Ayew, are the most notable departures.
Cooper’s pressing problem has been replacing departed loanees Dean Henderson and Keylor Navas between the sticks. Attempts to sign Henderson permanently are floundering but continue. Meanwhile, Forest has bought Matt Turner. With Wayne Hennessey injured, Turner will likely make his Premier League debut against, not for us.
Another priority for Cooper is hanging onto his two talented, young attacking midfielders — Morgan Gibbs-White, like our own ESR, part of England’s winning Euros-U21s side, and locally born Welsh international Brennan Johnson, who is linked to move to the wrong end of the Seven Sisters Road, following Djed Spence into that maw that devours promising young careers.
As is Cooper’s wont in away games against better sides, he will likely field a 3-4-2-1, which also got him the 1-0 home league win in May against us and the shock FA Cup win by the same score in January 2022. When he tried an attacking 4-3-3 at the Emirates last season, Forest got a 5-0 thrashing, the only one of his three games against us he has lost. The record books show Forest visiting the Emirates only twice and losing 5-0 both times. A three-peat would do just fine.
The last time we lost a home league game to Forest was in March 1989. Your nugget of history trivia: we started 10 Englishmen in that match. We have never beaten Forest at home when we have started 10 Englishmen, a total of six games over the years. The overall record is scarcely any better: a 21% win percentage against Forest with 10 Englishman versus a 54% win rate with any other number of Englishmen. There’s not many people that know that.
The Arsenal
There are some scores to settle for last May’s 1-0 defeat at the City Ground. Not only did it secure Forest’s Premier League status, it ended our title hopes. Arteta is becoming adept at using such hurt to motivate his team.
With Jesus off games (again!) along with Sambi Lokonga (remember him?), and Zinchenko, Reiss Nelson, Flo Balogun and Jorginho all still getting over knocks, it is tempting to think that Arteta will field the side that won at Wembley last Sunday. However, his preference for sticking with his first XI come what may be less in evidence this season. He has deepened the squad for a reason. Thus, I hazard that Eddie will start in place of Havertz.
Ramsdale
White, Saliba, Gabriel, Timber
Partey, Rice, Ødegaard
Saka, Nketiah, Martinelli
That team would also give us five English starters, a quota that has never failed us in 11 games against Forest in the league.
City remains the overwhelming favourite of the gentleman of the turf and the ex-pro pundits to lift their sixth title in seven seasons — and to win the FA and league cups and the Champions League. To be in there with them at the death next May, at the very least, we need to repeat last season’s fast start.
With Palace and Fulham to follow the Forest game before the Red Mancs visit in early September and we go to Everton the following weekend, we have the opportunity for 15 out of the first 15 points. We then just have to keep the pace up after that. Simples this managing malarky!
The ‘holic pound
The bookies have us at short odds favourites to beat Forest. Scant value is to be found in the score betting until we hit four or more. Four-nil is available at twelves, but the more realistic 3-0 is only sevens. If you fancy, the three-peat, 5-0 is available at 22s.
Enjoy the game, ‘holics, near and far.
PS: The GHF PL Predictathon is now closed. GHF raised nearly £600 for The Willow Foundation! Check out the new information on the GHF Contests tab discussing the contest, and to learn how the collective wisdom of the bar expects the season to play out.
Cheers, Ned !
Before I read your preview I want tp post this from the BBC as Sweden are through to the semis in the WWC: “New Arsenal defender Amanda Ilestedt set Sweden on their way with her fourth goal of the tournament – which puts her joint second in the scoring charts”
Many thanks for your excellent preview of Forest and the season more generally, Ned. Englishmen seem to come in bunches of five, it would appear, but I do like our English core of Ramsdale, White, Rice, Saka and Nketiah. Both of the latter to score I should think. COYG !!
As excellent a season opener as I hope the team will produce tomorrw afternoon, Ned. I expect your selection is nearer that of MA8 but I would rather like to see Leandro Trossard in from the start, playing the Jesús role, as I think he has earned that privilege. However, as Andrew frequently observes on Arseblog, Eddie only scores when he starts whereas we now know well that Leo is an accomplished and prolific super-sub, so your selection probably wins out and hopefully wins the day!
First class preview Ned
I am concerned that it will be a tough game and that it will be nothing like last season’s cakewalk . I envisage a difficult start but ultimate triumph . My one departure from your suggested team is that I think Havertz will start although I’d like Eddie to get the shirt . We will have a Holic meal after the game tomorrow . Pre-match festivities have led to fine victories. Let’s hope that continues for an after the match feast
COYG!
The Grauniad reports that Spurs froze season ticket prices but put up matchday prices by 20% instead. Now that’s a club looking out for the common man. NOT.
If the match is up to the quality of the preview, Ned, we’re in line for a great day out. I fancy Eddie to start and think we may see all three of Tross, ESR and Havertz feature from the bench.
I’m planning to be in early if anyone fancies buying me a beverage 🙂 to celebrate my survival on the return trip from Wembley in a carriage full of blue Mancs bent out of shape because we’d thumped them on the day.
Looking forward to another Holic’s post-match.
My dear Btm
I’m meeting a couple of friends in block F around 11.30.- 11.45 . You’d be welcome to join us
Cheers Ned! Great preview. I think Arteta will ignore your 5 English starters 100% stat though and start with Havertz up front (though I’d personally choose Trossard).
Very gratifying to see our U21s beat West Ham 3-0 in their first game tonight . West Ham won the Youth Cup last season and are strong. Nwaneri and Lewis- Skelly starred .
Thanks Ned for a cracking preview to open our season. Lots of interesting facts youve managed to unearth, particularly about the recent success of 5 stout Englishmen when playing. Like other fine patrons of this bar I think Havertz will get the nod to start but it’s great we have selection dilemmas ( or rather top level backups ) all over the pitch. 2-0 to get the Arse off to a good start.
COYRRR
MCBD
Thanks for the kind words all. I hope we romp to the three points, whomever starts.
Also, entries for the GHF PL Predictathon are now closed, but of you click on the GHF Contests tab abocw, you will find what the collective wisdom of the 20 players predicts the final table will look like.
Fine preview, thanks Ned and I enjoyed the piece on the wisdom of the crocodiles in this bar too. Personally, I have gone for a treble for The Arsenal but that of course is the usual amateur confusion of fantasy and reality.
A treble for Arsenal against Forest is quite realistic though. We should win regardless of whether it’s Leo, Eddie or Hav up front and though they played us well in May i think it’s the sword for them today.
As has been my habit in recent years, I’m going to lay out my targets for the year. They are supposed to be stretching, but realistic.
o Champions League qualification
o A good run – quarter finals or beyond – in one of the domestic cups
o Win a knockout game in the Champions League
And finally, repeat what I found the most enjoyable achievement of last season, beat the Tinies’ league performance so comprehensively that St Totts goes almost unnoticed.
I’m just off to that London for the game against the Red Dogs.
UTA
Thanks Ned, for sharing the collective wisdom of the ‘crowd’ in this fine establishment. It will be interesting to see how the fickle finger of fate deflects the outcome from that predicted by the combined wisdom of great minds.
A classy start, Ned – as always a fact filled, interesting read.
Incredible knowledge gathering regarding the English player %ges but be fair, even the monks deserve a night out occasionally. You’re clearly a hard taskmaster.
A nice result for Willow too – and thanks for your efforts in organising ,and the hard work still to come in calculating the eventual results.
Great to be starting the new season with such optimism after last term’s terrific improvements and a very impressive summer window.
I heard that Harry Kane has had it written into his new German contract that he never has to try to say “Borussia Mönchengladbach”. 😉
And, wow ! The collective table prediction looks from memory just about exactly like my own one – I had a good but realistic chuckle slotting the Spuds in at ‘9’ – but I did have Wolves to go down where the collective does not.
A mouth watering preview as always Ned! Thank you.
I like your team. But maybe Trossard starts instead of Eddie down the middle? We will know in a few minutes. 🙂
Everyone going to the game, enjoy!
Come on Arsenal!
Cheers Ned!
James Bange tweeting word is Eddie and Havertz to start. Which would mean one of Partey/Rice benched?
Find out soon.
*Benge*
Wow – no big Gabby, Partey at RB!
or a back 3 or who the fuck knows what’s going on! Which is probably Arteta’s intention?
Also Hein on the bench, Raya deal obviously not completed in time. Is it actually ‘official’ yet?
Ok! Back to 3-2-5 it is then…..
I’d prefer three at the back to TP at right back to be honest.
It’s certainly not the XI any of us was expecting.
Happy at 2-0 up. Our shape is er….fluid.
Shame that Timber had to go off injured on his first PL start.
Anyway, still 2-0 and meandering along a bit.
Hope my fellow Holics were able to get in ok.
Thank fuck that’s over. Should never have been hanging on against those useless cunts.,,BUT WE WON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yeah a clunky three points and not a great 2nd half but three points and a goal for Eddie
Waiting to board back after a shortened and unfortunately limited for various reasons ‘holics gathering.
Three points that came by harder than they should have, but three points nevertheless.
3 points not to be sneezed at but not a particularly fluid performance, and I hope Timber recovers quickly. Starting slow while winning could be a good portent though, so long as we finish fast while winning. We need to coalesce into something better than today. Did we miss Xhaka?
That was a curate’s egg of a game. Imperious and, bar an early scare, in total control in the first half. We thoroughly deserved our 2-0 lead at half time and a 3 or 4 goal lead would not have flattered us. At half-time I was confident that we would score an early third after which we could have toyed with Forest’s journeymen as we saw the game out. Whether Timber’s injury rocked the system, shook the morale or was irrelevant, our domination of possession in the early part of the second half was not complemented by chance creation or indeed, much threat at all. After the hour, Forest added a speed merchant up front in the form of Awoniyi (nope, I’ve never heard of him either). After a couple of rapid threatening breaks from our attacking turnovers on the edge of their box that won Forest’s first corners and gave Aaron his first exercise since an early successful defence of a one-on-one, Awoniyi got on the end of a low cross on anoother break to give us a ridiculously edgy last ten. The foolishness of the starting line up (I suppose Arteta HAS to experiment with his versatile players in order to confuse the opposition, but as TTG observed over a late lunch, he does risk confusing his own players too) was demonstrated by the immediate substitution of Martinelli (who had a brilliant hour) by Gabriel to add central defensive solidity. That sub did make a clear difference. Why the lackadaisical second half? Complacency? Confusion? Who knows? But I can hear Arsene citing a second half handbrake.
A depleted group of ‘Holics met in an Ecuadorean-Italian restaurant for a late lunch, hoping for a speedy recovery for C100 and a talented garage mechanic to fix Pangloss’s dodgy charabanc.
Three points are three points. Much work still to be done on the training pitch.
Awoyniyi not so unknown, bath as I think he’s the one who scored against us last time around?
I believe he scored a fair few goals in the second half of last season in fact and was one of the main reasons Forest stayed up.
Rest of your analysis and wishes to all, I share.
>>>>>>>