There’s a lot about Chelsea in this preview but rather than apologise for that, I will invite you to revel in the details of the complete mess into which they have gotten themselves. Fortunately, I started researching all this some time ago as it turned out to be a rats’ nest of huge proportions. I haven’t had time to work too many jokes into this preview but the whole thing is really quite funny, and just deserts for a fake club and a Russian owner intent on buying success with the ill-gotten gains of a rotten regime which has murdered untold numbers of civilians in an independent country who do not want to be beholden to it. Abramovich and Chelsea initiated the hyper-inflation which has ruined football for so many clubs and supporters, and I hate them for it.
The summer transfer window has long been a time of great turmoil and excitement at Stamford Bridge – at least for Chelsea fans. Regardless of whether the previous season had been one of success or failure, the Chelsea squad could likely face big changes in the space of the next month or so. If there was a rising star on the market or an established one with enough trophies under their belt, Roman Abramovich just had to have him for Chelsea – or his own ego.
Ballack, Shevchenko, Essien, Hazard, and our own Kai Havertz were all big names on the market at some stage during Abramovich’s 19 years at the club, and all were lured to Chelsea with no regard to cost or even the manager’s plans. To hell with the finances or the rules, £900,000-a-week losses were the cost of doing business for the Russian whose club was a mirror for his own reflected glory.
We all eagerly anticipated and then cheered the day when sanctions from the British government forced Abramovich to put the club up for sale in 2022. Surely, Chelsea could not find another Abramovich, willing to buy his way to silverware on the same scale? Even if they did, most Premier League owners did not want to compete with sovereign wealth funds or corrupt private individuals whose aim in football terms is world domination.
And so a new era of restrictions on uncontrolled spending and losses began with the introduction of the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR). Relatively suddenly, clubs like Everton and Nottingham Forest have discovered that these rules can bite, and while we all wait for Manchester City to be put to the sword, Chelsea will be fretting more than most.
Their current owners may not be ploughing their own personal wealth into a vanity project, but they have been spending like people who do, with over a billion pounds spent on mostly young players on ultra long-term contracts. Had those gambles resulted in Premier League contention and regular qualification for the Champions League, Chelsea’s owners might have been celebrated for establishing a new recruitment model for the industry. Instead, the club is set to miss out on the revenue from top tier European club football for a second successive season while its cost base has been inflated by the amortisation of its transfer binge.
As this summer looms on the horizon, supporters are not dreaming of who might arrive at Stamford Bridge, but who the owners may feel compelled to sell. Such deals may well have to be agreed before the June 30th soft deadline, as those provisions will inform the Premier League’s 2023-24 PSR calculations.
Why Chelsea’s 2024 summer looks bleak
As football finance expert Kieran Maguire puts it, “2024 is probably looking like a bit of a car crash.” According to analysis carried out for CBS Sports, prior to any summer sales, Chelsea are on course for a second year out of three where their pre-tax losses are in excess of £100 million. This puts Todd Boehly, Behdad Eghbali and the rest of the ownership group in an extremely difficult position. The Premier League allows exceptions for PSR calculations that include spending on academy football, the women’s game and community investment.
Even with generous allowances for those, CBS Sports calculations estimate that Chelsea’s losses, post-mitigations for a three-year window, would be around £210 million, double the Premier League’s top limit. Chelsea, for their part, maintain they are not concerned and that they are confident they can comply with all Financial Fair Play and PSR requirements, avoiding any league imposed penalties. We’ll see!
Across the league, those penalties have become realities for teams already. Everton and Nottingham Forest have been hit by points deductions for breaches some way short of what Chelsea’s might be. Everton exceeded their £105 million limit by £19.5 million and Forest’s breach was £34.5 million over their threshold of £61 million (a lower amount as they had only just been promoted to the Premier League). Both were judged to be significant breaches by independent commissions. The only apparent path to compliance for next season for Chelsea is sell, sell, sell.
“I don’t know how you can view the financial situation for Chelsea in 2023-24 and reach a conclusion that they won’t be forced to sell before June 30, or at least try their best given the Nottingham Forest decision,” says a leading analyst who spoke to CBS Sports on condition of anonymity. “When it is suggested that Chelsea need to get £100 million from player trading in that two-week window when the Euros is going on, that seems right to me.”
CBS’s analysis of Chelsea’s finances suggests that there is no imminent prospect of the picture improving. A projection for their 2024-25 accounts predicts another operating loss, this one in the region of £130 million. This far out, certain assumptions have to be made. One is that commercial revenue will remain static, given that they will be out of the Champions League again. Soon after Clearlake Capital bought Chelsea, part owner Jose E. Feliciano spoke of his belief that the club could register a billion in revenue during their ownership. That’s a far cry from these assumptions.
“My suspicion is that when Feliciano said that he was looking at Chelsea’s commercial revenue relative to the traditional big six,” says the analyst. “It was an underperformer there and so there was a sense that Chelsea had low hanging fruit. The challenge with those assumptions is that they are conditioned on a certain legacy performance that’s quickly moving away.”In the absence of sporting improvement, it’s not clear how they would get to those numbers.”
The second set of assumptions is based around involvement in competition outside Europe. Given the state of the Premier League table, the Champions League looks beyond Mauricio Pochettino’s side, who would have to make up a 17 point gap in 10 games just to make the fifth spot that might, dependent on English club’s performances in Europe this season, unlock another seat at the top table. The Europa League and Europa Conference League are possibilities, although now only through league finish as they lost in the FA Cup at the weekend when Manchester City beat them in the semi-finals. The likelihood is that they will not even qualify for a spot in the Conference League. One of their main sources of increased revenue then would appear to be ticket price rises – surely an unpopular option for fans who are already unimpressed by the club’s decline.
Amortisation
And this is where Chelsea’s great veil of amortisation gets drawn back. They were able to spend more than £1 billion in the transfer market since the takeover by spreading the cost of big money signings such as Mykhailo Mudryk, Moises Caicedo and Enzo Fernandez over contracts significantly longer than the usual four to five years that might normally be handed out. When it comes to reflecting those transfers in their accounts, the cost is spread over the life of a player’s contract. Mudryk’s £100 million deal might look staggering on paper, but spread over the cost of a seven and a half-year contract it is rather less of a burden in any one year.
That Chelsea managed to secure these deals before UEFA and the Premier League moved to limit the number of years a fee could be amortised over, made some see a whiff of genius from the ownership. Few appreciated that governing bodies might have a point when they said they were acting to discourage clubs from locking themselves into squads over the extreme long-term when the side effects could be profound.
Chelsea’s annual amortisation costs are not that out of sync with the rest of the Premier League, according to finance writer Swiss Ramble. The £160 million they have on their books is not even the highest in England, trailing Manchester United at £170 million. A key difference, however, aside from the revenue gulf between those two clubs, is the speed at which United could bring theirs down.
United have 11 first-team players on their books, with three or four years left on their contracts come the end of the season, and 20 who would be out of contract in two years. At Chelsea, there are 23 players who are tied to the club to 2028 and beyond. Many of their most expensive acquisitions – Mudryk, Fernandez, Caicedo, Nicolas Jackson and Romeo Lavia among them – are contracted until 2030.
If the plan had clicked, Chelsea might just be in dream land now, a squad of bright young things achieving greatness while tied to contracts that are relatively cheap by Premier League big-six standards. Instead, they seem to have found themselves in the downside scenario. Amortising the value over seven or eight years means that every year the book value of Chelsea’s squad is cut by a far smaller fraction. For it to make any financial sense for Mudryk to be sold, for instance, it would have to be at a price which is higher than the asset is worth to Chelsea. That almost certainly will not happen when his paper value remains so high, and potential buyers are now very aware of their own spending limits.
The latest ruse
The following explanation is from Jacob Steinberg in the Guardian on how Chelsea are trying to escape punishment under the PSR rules by selling themselves two hotels:—————————— “Premier League clubs reacted with exasperation after seeing that Chelsea eased their financial position with the £76.5m sale of two hotels to a sister company, in a deal that appears to have helped the club avoid a breach of profitability and sustainability rules. Chelsea’s accounts, published last weekend, revealed the club made a loss of £89.9m in the last financial year. That figure would have been £166.4m without the hotels sale from Chelsea FC Holdings Ltd to Blueco 22 Properties Ltd. Both companies are subsidiaries of Chelsea’s holding company, Blueco 22 Ltd.
The move to sell the Millenium and Copthorne hotels, and their car parking, was not blocked by the league. But Chelsea’s ability to exploit a loophole in the rules has not gone down well with everyone. An executive at one top-flight club was incredulous after learning of the deal, and another club were left with “raised eyebrows” and were said to have read the accounts “with interest”. There was a sense of resignation at another club, where a figure said that the deal came as “little – surprise”.
The hotel sales were yet to be assessed as “fair market value” under the league’s associated-party transactions rules, according to Chelsea’s accounts. Any decrease in the £76.5m valuation could place Chelsea’s finances under renewed pressure. The accounts were signed off in December 2023, six months after the hotels deal took place. Chelsea and the league have not confirmed whether a fair-market assessment has been concluded. It has been pointed out by Chelsea that they appointed two independent valuers to assess the club’s valuation of the hotels and that no issues were raised.
The last week has revealed that the hand of Roman Abramovich reached far beyond West London. It seems the tanks the Russian famously parked on the front lawn at Highbury were also firing £50 notes in the direction of Holland and Eredivisie club Vitesse Arnhem. Following an investigation into allegations that the club was secretly controlled by Abramovich and received illegal payments from him, they have been deducted 18 points, ensuring their relegation. It seems to me that other clubs, fans and indeed the Premier League know exactly what is going on, and it is all flying totally in the face of the spirit and intentions of the league’s stipulations. The one thing I can’t find much opinion on is why the League are so slow to do anything about it. Unless, of course, you are “lowly” Nottingham Forest or hard up Everton. Or maybe that’s a clue.Given how close Chelsea appear to be to the PSR line, there does not appear to be much room for creativity. The Premier League has a big fish to catch here, hopefully as a warm up for the biggest of all, Manchester C115y. Fingers crossed.
The teams
Fofana, Lavia, Ugochukwu, James, Nkunku and Colwill are all out for Chelsea, so they’ll have to dip into their 137 strong squad. Pochettino will doubtless be whining regardless of who does and doesn’t play because whining is what he does most of. And, frankly, who cares? Their only other doubt is keeper Edouard Mendy but he is a worry for quite different reasons – a building in Chelsea was going up in flames. A distressed woman, tightly clutching her baby, was spotted screaming for her life and for someone to save her baby. No one responded until Edouard Mendy arrived at the scene. He shouted up, “Lady, I’m Edouard Mendy! I’m Chelsea’s No. 1 goalkeeper! I’ll save your baby for sure, it’s my job!” The woman responded doubtfully, “I’m 15 stories up! Surely you won’t be able to save my child!” Confidently, Mendy responded, “Don’t worry! Have faith in me. I will save your baby, just as I have performed time and time again important saves for Chelsea.” Persuaded, the woman put her faith in Mendy and dropped her baby for him. Down the baby went, 15 stories, 150 feet. Perfectly positioned, with great confidence, and true to character, Mendy clutched the baby in mid-air, bounced it on the ground a few times, and punted it out of bounds.
The Arsenal
Definitely still unavailable for this game is Jurrien Timber, with this from Mikel Arteta at the weekend: “He’s going to play a game with the under-21s against Blackburn on Monday and after that we will see better where he is, how he felt. He looks really good in training but it’s that last step now. We need to have the certainty that he’s ready to go.” Takehiro Tomiyasu is the only other injury worry but is expected to be available according to Sports Mole.
I’m guessing Arteta will go with his policy of making changes only where necessary, but I would like to see us really go at them from the start, so my stab at the team is:
Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Kiwior; Ødegaard, Jorginho, Rice; Saka, Havertz, Martinelli;
The Holic Pound
As something a bit different to the usual match odds, if you are mad enough to bet on this title race with 5 games to go, Paddy Power are offering 3/1 for us to win the league. (C115y are offered at 6/10 and Liverpool at 9/2 – just for information, mind!) For this match, we are priced around 8/15 to win, the draw is 4/1 and a Chelsea win is 5/1. Bet365 have Martinelli at 2/1 to score at any time, or Kai Havertz at 7/4 – got to be, hasn’t it ?
The Officials
Referee: Simon Hooper; 4th Official: Graham Scott; VAR: Peter Bankes. Kick-off is on Tuesday 23rd April, at 20.00 UK. TV coverage on TNT Sport. Enjoy the game if you can ….. any win … any win … any win …
Timber’s comeback goal
https://x.com/ArsenalAcademy/status/1782478424742810017
Blimey, TTG – looks like we’ve found a striker 😳
Trev,
Great investigative reporting with a bit of financial journalism thrown in! Several of us on here have always been sceptical about the whirlwind that the Chavs were about to reap with the combination of inflated fees and long-term contracts . But as is so often the case some people in the press who should have known better were keen to point out how brilliant their approach was. It has failed on every front. They are on their fourth manager having sacked one who won the Champions League for the club and while they have identified some real talents they’ve bought some duds too and wildly overpaid for them . Quelle dommage !
Nevertheless tomorrow is an opportunity to salvage something and we need to see tgem off. Palmer is said to be ill but if he is fit I don5 want him marked by Kiwior and hope Tomi is fit. Otherwise I think your suggested team is close to spot on. If Partey was fit ( and trusted) he’d be my choice in holding midfield . But he doesn’t appear to be either.
I’m going but anticipate a nervy evening which we will win 2-1 with a late goal…by Havertz . Oh the irony of that !
Thanks for the preview and delving into the Chav financial mismanagement, Trev. The only thing I can disagree with is the idea that most of the players in the Abramovich era “were lured to Chelsea with no regard to cost or even the manager’s plans” Without defending Abramovich himself in any ethical way I thought many of those purchases (Essien, Drogba, etc.) must have been brought in with the manager’s (Mourinho’s) approval, but of course I could be wrong. Also I’m not too sure Mendy would see the humor there, but hey ho. The new Chelsea management so far seems to be about as inept as it is unethical and long may it, and their less than successful ways, continue. As for the game, just win Arsenal, double please.
Thanks Trev, the first time I had read about the hotel sales shenanigans.
I wonder why that shower attracts the unsavory and the stupid.
I will ask my Chav friends next time we chat.
I would prefer Tomi as well I think for the starting line-up but I think
Zin will return and I doubt Jorginho will start. The defeat to 115ty has
basically ended their season I think and hopefully we will be able to
kick them in the nuts while they are still down, they’ll understand that
mentality.
It appears that the lovely Anne Hathaway is a Gooner .Who knew?
She is welcome in the North Bank Upper any time!
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/sport/football/anne-hathaway-arsenal-hollywood-trossard-32647250
Very interesting and in depth preview Trev.
This game could be anything, an evening stroll for us, or a tight feisty London Derby, depending on which Chelsea turn up.
Coached by the ex Spurs Manager in Poch, who would love to put a spanner in our Title hopes, and still with a chance of Europa/Conference league football, currently only 3pts off those spots with a game in hand, i am expecting that he will have them revved up for this one.
Whether the players will listen is the big question, and one that we will probably find out in the first 20 minutes or so, if they are or are not ” putting themselves about ” as dear old Vinnie used to say.
We have to win this by hook or by crook, and hopefully, re energized after the important win against Wolves, we can go the well one more time to keep our dream alive.
Good luck to all those going, the atmosphere is going to be electric, and those fortunate enough to be there, are going to be our 12th man and roar us home to victory.
A very engaging read, Trev.
Some quick thoughts on the financials: a back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests Chelsea will have to break even on a pre-tax basis this season to comply with the PL’s three-year losses limit under PSR.
So that is £90 million to conjure up out of the P&L. That will be tough without European football revenue and with transfer carrying costs rising. Last season, Chelsea pushed commercial and matchday revenues to new records and broke through the £500 million mark for the first time, but as you indicate, raising ticket prices will be unpopular (not that they won’t do it anyway), and a stadium redevelopment to get more revenue-generating bums on seats for football and non-football won’t happen anytime soon.
Immediate options could be:
(i) to find another property deal (an accounting sleight of hand that the EFL has stopped its clubs making, even if the PL still allows it), with the stadium the only feasible possibility. However, the club doesn’t own the underlying freehold to Stamford Bridge, which will complicate things;
(ii) to sell a bunch of players. There is a note in the most recent accounts saying it has already made £48 million of sales that will get recorded in this year’s accounts so it is halfway to what it needs (and that will help get wage costs down a bit, too) but the transfer market remains soft and buyers will exploit Chelsea’s need to sell;
(iii) grovel to the PL for special treatment because of lost revenue when the UK government imposed commercial restrictions on it to sanction Abramovich; or
(iv) borrow some money as it has reported to have done with the US investment firm, Ares Management, in such a way as the loan has enough lipstick on it to look like the ‘secure funding’ the PL counts as a capital investment equivalent.
But, as you, say, it is all a bit of a mess.
Now that I looked after reading Clive’s post Chelsea are closer to the minor European placing than I thought @5. Wham and Manure’s poor form and 3 wins, 2 draws in their last 5 have lifted them up the table a bit.
Still, let’s kick them in the nuts anyway as they deserve it.
Thanks for the preview, Trev. A lot of time and effort has gone into that. Much appreciated. Just a note to Ned@8 – I think I’m right in saying that what Chelsea don’t own is actually the pitch. This was put into a supporters trust of some kind after the near collapse of the club after the new stand was built back in the 80s. Without the pitch I imagine the value of the property as a whole is more than somewhat compromised. Of course the new owners could buy out the trust. However I believe Abramovic tried that and was rebuffed.
Thanks for a well researched, informative preview, Trev. Abramovich’s shadow looms large, having turned a music hall joke team into a voracious financial predator but the child in a sweetshop approach taken by Boehly et al is simply astonishing. It’s somehow reassuring when a club one had despised for years continue to prove themselves rotten to the core.
Unfortunately Poxy Tina is a very good coach and they have been slowly upping their game after a shocking start to the season. We mustn’t underestimate them. They will be well up for this match as, as has already been pointed out by Clive @7, they are well in the mix for a European place which, in the financial incentive system that will almost certainly be in operation under these owners, will certainly motivate Poxy and the players, but will without doubt also motivate their creative accountants as it offers another income stream to manipulate.
Our players must put tired minds and limbs aside, keep our eyes on the prize, and win another battle. For it’s sure to be a battle and we have to be ready for it.
COYG
Hugely informative Trev. With my business hat on, I wouldn’t have fancied briefing the board on progress. But all that talent, expensively purchased, had to come good sometime on the field and I think they are getting there. I think it will be tight tonight.
Evidently Ticket Exchange is now open to all members, whether you entered the ballot or not, and there are over 100 tix available. This match was rescheduled, which is why some ST holders can’t now go.
CER@10: As I understand it, Chelsea Pitch Owners, which is a non-profit, owns the freehold to Stamford Bridge and the naming rights. When the Mears family sold Chelsea in the 1980s, it separated the freehold from the club and sold it to property developers. Ken Bates organised CPO in the early 90s to buy the freehold back (the developer owning had gone bankrupt) and end the threat of eviction (as happened elsewhere). CPO then leased the ground to the club for 199 years to ensure it continued playing there. Abramovich tried to buy out the CPO in 2011, so he could build a new stadium in Battersea or Earls Court, but failed to secure the 75% of shareholder votes necessary.
There is a detailed history of the CPO here and a copy of the lease if you have a taste for reading such things.
https://www.chelseafc.com/en/chelsea-pitch-owners-history
Thanks fellas – largely for your indulgence !
I know there are regulars here who are far better versed in these matters than I am.
I hesitated to write this piece for that reason but what Chelsea have done – twice now – makes me very angry and, just in case any others were unaware, I wanted to highlight what a mess they have ended up in.
They threw mad amounts of money around when Abramovich arrived and distorted the market to the extent of eliminating their competition – at least until other equally wealthy owners arrived who were prepared to try to match them. Abramovich’s enforced departure and the arrival of Boehly and Clearlake – the new bullies on the block – has again seen transfer fees rocket, such that bidding for a truly top player now seems to begin somewhere around £100 million. Man C115y have not been slow to follow but tend to use tapping up and mega high wages as their means of getting players, rather than paying the very highest transfer fees.
Anyway, a good deal of what I wrote was clearly quoted from expert sources, rather than being original thought, but I at least made sure I fully understood the situations they were describing before including the material. In doing so I learnt a lot and hopefully sharing the information might have helped anyone whose understanding of their real situation was as shallow as my own.
Back to the jokes next time !
Wow! Cheers Trev. You wrote an excellent, well-researched, informative article about the joke in the Bus Stop (aka Chelsea). It seems you can not be rich without a certain ammount of bastardness and Chelsea owners are not short of any of this.
But we have the pitch and hopefully the performance on it showing them where to put their money up.
UTA
Cheers Trev for a very detailed view of Chav$ki’s financial shenanigans – let’s hope all their sins will eventually catch up with them.
A good win against them tonight will be more than welcome. We’ve had a gruelling schedule of late, some players looking very cream crackered and we will need Mikel to carefully select those who are fully fit as it’s a derby and the Chavs should be up for it. Counting however that their defeat to Man C115ty will have affected them even more.
A hard fought weary win for the good guys 🙏🏻.
COYRRR
A rather bravura piece of investigative journalism in the guise of a humorous match preview. Thank you Trev!
I am in that cynical camp who think that neither Chelsea nor City will face any meaningful consequences for their shenanigans. The murky world of football governance gives us no reason to expect otherwise. There will always be loopholes.
Anyway, back to the match — even though Leo scored the breakthrough goal on the weekend I think Gabi might start this one, in front of Zinchenko and Rice, Jorginho in a deeper role and Kai as the number 9. Jesus and Leo to come in later. It would have been great if Saka could have been given a rest before the derby, but he is likely to have to push himself through for the next few matches.
Let’s hope we start on the front foot, get the support going, and really impose ourselves and control the match.
Come on Arsenal!
Trev@15: 👏👏👏
Chelsea has played within the rules; it is just that the rules have been very accommodating to its financial ledgerdemain under the Abromovich and Boehly/Clearlake Capital ownerships. The question for this season’s accounts is whether they can find any more revenue rabbits to pull out of the hat or cost cuts so that they do not fall foul of PSR. No doubt there are highly paid financiers and accountants working on that as we speak. The owners have talked about taking £100 million a year out of operating costs. Good luck to that when you are having to rebuild a squad to get back into Europe. We know how expensive that can be, and we have an ownership and management that appears to actually know what it is doing.
My two cents is that Chelsea’s bigger problem is that Boehly is betting the bank on implementing a US pro-sports model of long-term contracts locking in younger players. That might work in a league where all the teams have that business model, and there are other props like a draft system, roster and salary caps to keep the league competitive and restricted player movement. But that is not how the Premiership works. Boehly might be betting that there are enough US owners to change the PL to running itself the US way, but that is a really, really big bet and a far more visionary one than having eight-year player contracts.
Cheers Trev!
Partey starts!
Palmer not in the Chelsea squad
No party without Thomas. COYG.
COYG and first XI-ers of the hour Thomas and Tomiyasu. Both those guys give me confidence there will be no drop-off from the usual first XI.
Arteta gets the Partey started !
We’ve got that old White, Saka, Odegaard, Partey combo going again 👍🏻
Partey such a smooth player – often doesn’t need a touch – 1st time passes – clever spaces
So much for Partey’s race is run at Arsenal. Quite open so far but I’ll take
a half time lead. CoYGs!!
Tighten up at the back please
I do believe MA heard my request @9 😂😂😂😂
Play it out and get the clean sheet, hopefully big Gabi will be ok.
65m down the drain 🎶🎶
The lesser spotted Vieira on for Bukayo.
Big Gabi must be ok
Nearly 6-0, which would be nice for historical reasons
Should have been 10….
5-0 also not bad for historical and other reasons Matt. 😁
It certainly could have been.
Actually think all the games we’ve played since Spuds last had a game is in our favour.
You can only beat what is in front of you, no matter how much of a waste of money they are.
How soon before Boehly and co are adding to the £46 million they spent on firing Tuchel, and then hiring and firing Potter? it might even be a kindness to put Poch out of his misery.
Great performance and result!
Ned, I saw a headline in the paper today frat Pochettino is seeking talks with the owners about building the squad in the summer.
He obviously hasn’t had a read in here then …….
Well that was fun!
Wasn’t it just, the support looked to be enjoying themselves😃
Gotta love the good days
Trev@41: 🙂
But isn’t that what they do every summer?
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2024/apr/23/chelsea-arsenal-football-premier-league
Just linking this for Ronay’s take on Ode, like being hounded to death by a poet.
The report was sent over at 2.30 this morning ( UK time) . Waiting for it to be posted when a techie awakes
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