Next up in a tough pre-interlull sequence of four away fixtures, is Brighton & Hove Albion at the Amex Stadium, perhaps the toughest challenge of them all, given current form. Can this Arsenal squad extend its current run of victories?
This is Brighton’s tenth consecutive season as a top flight club since gaining promotion in 2016-17. The Seagulls have gained wide respect for their management structure, scouting network, shrewd managerial appointments, player development and consistently successful player sales and replacement. Credit appears to be due to owner Tony Bloom and his advanced data modelling approach which they use to identify suitable players, coaches and support staff.
Brighton flirted with the lower reaches in their first three seasons in the Premier League but from 2021-22, they have finished 9th, 6th, 11th, 8th and 8th. Potter had them playing attractive progressive football and gained his poisoned chalice of head coach at the Bus Stop on the strength of that ninth place. De Zerbi bettered that by gaining sixth place and their first foray into Europe which undoubtedly affected their league position the next season but has finally landed in the cesspit up the road. Hürzeler has maintained Brighton’s exalted status with two consecutive 8th places. The German coach has an impressive record (42 wins, 26 draws and 27 defeats in 95 matches since taking charge in June 2024) and has developed a highly competitive team producing free-flowing, attractive football but he just can’t resist the occasional snide comment and seems to have a particular problem with the Arsenal.
That spikiness may be a result of his own record against the Arsenal. Since promotion to the Premier League, Brighton’s record against the Arsenal is 5 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats which is very respectable given the relative size of the club. However, Hürzeler’s own PL record is 0 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats plus another defeat in the League Cup whereas Potter delivered 3 wins and de Zerbi 2 wins against the Arsenal. Do you think he might be up for this game?.
Brighton underwent a massive squad overhaul in the summer with 11 new signings costing roughly £150-180 million while letting go established players for some £160-190 million. Major purchases include Vušković, a promising 19-year-old Croatian centre-back from Sp*rz; Yohanna, a highly-rated 19-year-old Swedish winger from AIK; Struijk, an experienced 26-year-old centre-back from Leeds; Andrés, a defensive midfielder from Stuttgart; Azeez, a winger from Millwall; Hadjam, a left-back from Young Boys; Costinha, a right-back from Olympiacos; Svoboda, a centre-back from Venezia and David, a forward on loan from Union SG (another club associated with Bloom’s Jamestown Analytics). Midfielder Baleba left for Manure for ca. £70m, van Hecke joined Sp*rx for ca. £50m, Rushworth left for Coventry after a season on loan for ca. £22m while Welbeck joined Chelsea for £5m and Julio joined Burnley for £3m. It might be observed that each player could have chosen to join a better outfit.
The Seagulls got their PL campaign off to a great start with a 4-0 home demolition of Villa but then suffered a narrow 4-3 defeat at the Bus Stop despite 74% possession and matching the hosts’ 6 shots on target. 3-0 down after 30 minutes, they were the better team for the rest of the game. Their next game was a 1-1 home draw with Leeds despite again dominating possession and taking 20 shots at goal. In their last league game they again dominated possession at 70% as they trounced Coventry 5-0 away, and they were by far the better team after the first 10 minutes in their comeback win in midweek at Old Trafford. Clearly, taking the lead against this team is no guarantee of success.
Hürzeler generally deploys a highly fluid 4-2-3-1 formation which dynamically shifts into a 2-4-4 or 4-3-3 during the build-up phase. However, he started with a back three against Manure. Will he revert to a back four against the Arsenal? Your guess is as good as mine. I suspect he may not.
Brighton have a significant injury list: Mitoma, Minteh, Hinshelwood, Wieffer, Ferguson, Tzimas and March are long term absentees; Azeez has returned to full training but Hürzeler says that he will not be ready for this match; O’Riley played 60 minutes and Rutter 8 minutes in midweek and both may be involved from the bench against Arsenal. Hadjam has reportedly recovered from his injury vs Manure and will probably be on the bench.
In their 4 league games to date, Hürzeler has usually started the following XI:
Verbruggen
Kadioglu, Vušković, Dunk, Boscagli;
Groß, Atari
Gomez, Yacouyé, De Cuyper
Kostoulas
I have to confess that I only recognise Verbruggen, Dunk, Vušković and Groß in that XI. Dunk and Vuškoviċ have looked a reasonably solid centre-back pairing this season but I would expect Saka, Tzolis, Ødegaard, Guimarães, Merino and Havertz to be capable of unsettling them with their high press and fast interplay though high crosses in open play will be of little value. Groß was a major force in their midfield against Manure and effectively ran the game and he will need to be looked after (in the nicest possible way) by someone, probably DR41. Groß, Yalcouyé and De Cuyper might be regarded as their major threats although Brighton’s goals have so far been shared around. In four games each, Groß has 2 goals and 2 assists, Yalcouyé has 2 goals and De Cuyper 1 goal and 2 assists. Hinshelwood, who is currently injured, scored 2 goals in a single appearance and four other players, including the two centre-backs, have one goal each. Brighton currently sit in 7th place and are the top scoring team in the PL with 13 goals, having conceded 5, and their goal difference of 8 is the best in the league.
What about the Champions? With Konsa proving a fabulous deputy for Saliba, the only question mark in defence is at right back. According to MA8 on Friday, he is “very optimistic” that Mosquera, White, Timber and Hincapié will be available for selection. It would be simply unheard of if all our full-back options were available to begin to share the heavy load that position now calls for. However MA8 can be extremely Delphic in his answers to press conference questions and we may be fortunate to have just one of those players ready to start, hopefully at least, Timber. Salmon had an excellent match against Ipswich at RCB and he looks so composed and competent; if we are short for right back cover the youngster could be useful on the bench to provide cover, though I thought Zubimendi did very well at RB in midweek and may be pencilled in as cover for that position as well as in midfield. In midfield the big question is whom to add to Rice and Ødegaard: Guimarães for forward drive and penetrating passing or MLS for defensive cover? Although Merino could add a bit of both I suspect MA8 might reserve him for reinforcement of our central attack if necessary. I expect Guimarães to be the third starting midfielder.
In our generally excellent midweek showing, the player whose performance might have thrust him into the next starting XI was, of course, Max Dowman, but at 16, a run of first team games would be asking too much, despite his huge talent. Dowman may possibly make the bench but careful time management is clearly the order of the day for someone of such tender years. Madueke’s performance against Ipswich cemented his right wing back-up position but he still has work to do to displace Saka despite our number seven not yet hitting his best form. Unfortunately, neither Gyökeres nor Eze produced performances in midweek that will give Mikel Arteta any selection headaches for Brighton. They will both be on the bench. I expect to see us to start with:
Raya
Timber Konsa Gabriel Calafiori
Ødegaard Guimarães Rice
Saka Havertz Tzolis
I predict a tight, hard-fought game. Brighton will employ a high press and will work hard to regain the ball as far upfield as possible – much like ourselves – and if unsuccessful in that, will present us with a double row of defenders in a low block. We will need to be at our slickest in playing out from the back to beat that press and must move the ball quickly into attack before they can reset. Ødegaard and Guimarães will be key components to a victory. I fear that this game is likely to be settled by a nervy one goal margin, or may possibly end in a draw.
The Holic Pound? You can get 8/1 on both 1-0 and 2-1 to the Arsenal, or 17/2 on 2-0 to the Arsenal, 14/1 on 0-0, 15/2 on 1-1 or ‘the value bet’ of 15/1 on 2-2. If you don’t suffer from terminal Celtic gloom, as I appear to, you can plump for 3-0 or 3-1 which are both offered at 14/1. I would be delighted if we could keep another clean sheet but this feels like a game in which we may concede and we will have to score more than a single goal to win. Thus the Holic Pound is going on one of Dave’s favourite scorelines: 2-1 to the Arsenal.
Enjoy the game, Holics. It’s not being shown live in the UK so happy stream-hunting for those of that persuasion.