And so, our weary warriors trudge from a massacre at the hands of the Villans to the site of epic battles in our distant past. Can our leader revive their tattered morale? Can he restore the vestigial signs of defensive organisation and midfield drive that we saw at the Old Toilet and raised our hopes only for them to be cruelly dashed by a Villa team playing with verve, drive and style? Can he find a creative spark and a fox in the box within the depleted squad?
We carry many scars from previous meetings with Leeds United that didn’t make the cut in TTG’s excellent last post. We need not go back to the battles with Revie’s Dirty Leeds whose players could have served as models for Tolkein’s orcs. The sharp practices of Bremner, Giles, Charlton, Hunter et al achieved such depths of infamy that they permanently colour any view of the Yorkshire team. However, we have more recent scars from encounters with this opponent.
In May 1999 we looked a good bet to retain our Premier League Title but our hopes were cruelly obliterated at Elland Road by David O’Leary’s Leeds. A familiar story unfolded as the champions squandered many chances (‘twould actually be a fine thing to make many chances again, methinks!) only to be suckered by a Hasselbaink goal 5 minutes from time, losing 0-1 to allow Manure to win their ‘famous treble’. That scar has never healed.
In May 2003, dreaming of creating history by retaining the Double, we hosted Peter Reid’s struggling Leeds team at Highbury with three games to play. All season long we had looked odds-on to retain the Premiership trophy, standing 8 points clear on 2 March. A hapless defence missing Lauren and Campbell conspired to dash our ambitions and an 88thminute goal from Viduka consigned us to a 2-3 defeat, ended all hope of a back-to-back double and preserved Leeds’ Premiership status. Another deep unhealed scar.
In 2003-4 we took revenge at Elland Road winning 4-1 in both League and FA Cup and 5-0 at Highbury to condemn them to the relegation from which they have only now emerged. The latter was a masterful display with 4 goals from Thierry Henry after a Robert Pires opener. I well remember after the Highbury game meeting an extremely disconsolate Leeds fan on the platform at Arsenal Tube Station. He was beside himself with grief and observed that as Leeds were relegated his hopes that Manure would never win the Premiership again rested with the Arsenal. I reassured him that our lads would do their level best but I wish Hasselbaink and Viduka had shared his sentiments in previous years.
In the intervening period we have met Leeds three times in the FA Cup Third Round, beating them 3-1 at Elland Road after a 1-1 draw at the Emirates in 2011 and winning 1-0 at the Emirates in 2012 with a goal from a New York Red Bulls loan player who seemed very familiar. In our most recent meeting in January we beat them 1-0 at our place through a second half Reiss Nelson goal. However, in the first half Leeds ran rings round us with their high intensity, aggressively pressing game. They had 63% possession and 15 attempts on goal in that first half but fortunately lacked a cutting edge. We could easily have been 0-2 down at half time but MA8 read the riot act in the dressing room and a reorganised and refocused Arsenal team carried the day. Mikel said later that he had warned the players what to expect but post-match Nelson admitted that Leeds’ intensity surprised them! Forewarned is forearmed this time, I hope.
The Opposition
The enigmatic, highly regarded Marcelo Bielsa swiftly revived Leeds’ fortunes on his arrival as head coach in 2018. In his first season Leeds remained in the Championship’s top two until running out of steam late on, losing in the play-off semi-final. In his second season they again stayed in the top two for most of the season and finished 10 points clear to gain promotion as Champions. In the Premiership Leeds have been exhilarating to watch with several high scoring games. On the opening day of the season they lost 4-3 with a brave display at Anfield, reversing that score-line with a home win against Fulham before a 1-0 away win at Sheffield United and a 1-1 home draw against Shitteh. Then a narrow 1-0 home defeat by Wolves preceded a striking 3-0 away win at Villa. However, Leeds come into our game on the back of a pair of 4-1 defeats, at home to Lesta and undeservedly away at Palace.
Without the ball, Bielsa’s Leeds teams line up in a 4-1-4-1 formation with an aggressive press as their key tactic. On losing possession every Leeds outfielder presses aggressively aiming for one of two outcomes: (1) to regain possession within seconds and mount a high-paced counter-attack using swift interplay or (2) to force opponents to play a long ball upfield to be hoovered up by their big centre-backs because the effective midfield press blocks all other out-ball options. In possession, Leeds players transition to a 3-3-1-3 with the full-backs bombing forward to provide width in midfield with Phillips dropping back centrally to form a secure back three. Meanwhile one of the two central midfielders moves forward between the lines to create scoring opportunities while the other drops back to provide cover between the full backs. As the attack moves forward the two wingers move inside to add to the creative midfielder’s options. Their build-up is based on short passes between players progressing through diamonds up the pitch ending in the opposition penalty area with the advanced midfielder, the ‘wingers’ and Bamford. This summarises an excellent and more detailed analysis of Bielsa’s 2019/20 Championship tactics by Sachin Prabhu Ram (https://eflanalysis.com/analysis/marcelo-bielsa-at-leeds-united-201920-tactical-analysis-tactics).
The Leeds team we face on Sunday will largely be the one that ran us ragged for 45 minutes in January. Their key deep-lying midfielder Phillips, now an England international, has been out for several weeks with a shoulder injury but is returning earlier than expected. Left winger/wing back Alioski is a doubt having returned early with a tight hamstring following exertions for North Macedonia but I expect him to be fit. Bamford is their main goal threat with 7 Premiership goals in 8 PL games this season, a significant improvement on his respectable career average of a goal every other game. He will probably be flanked by Costa (2 goals, 2 assists) and Harrison (1 goal, 2 assists) as wide attackers. Leeds’ captain is Luke Ayling, formerly a youth team captain of this parish and a dynamic right back whose play epitomises the Bielsa project. Luke will certainly be up for this match! He is matched on the left flank by Dallas (1 Goal). Their high energy roles and augmentation of the midfield and attack are key to Bielsa’s strategy. As are the roles of the mobile and intelligent central midfielders, usually Klich (2 goals, 3 assists) and Hernandez though the latter is apparently a doubt and will probably be replaced by Roberts or perhaps Raphina.
The Arsenal
The Arsenal come into this game without scoring a goal from open play for over six hours and despite a handful of missed chances, we display an abiding lethargy and creative drought. Despite an encouraging first half against Lesta and a rare display of midfield drive and domination against Manure, we produced the most lacklustre display of the Arteta era against Villa. In 8 PL games, we have averaged just 1.12 goals per game so it’s no surprise that we are in the bottom half of the table. The reason for this is not rocket-science. Last season’s top scorer has taken just 10 PL shots and is playing further left than Magic Grandpa while last season’s second top scorer has made only a single PL start. Meanwhile, our new playmaker/winger who has started ahead of him has taken as many shots as our new centre half.
Our team selection will certainly be affected by Interlull events. Two players are certainly out of contention. Elneny has had two positive tests for coronavirus and is quarantined in Cairo. Less damagingly, Kolasinac tested positive with the Bosnian team and has also entered quarantine. Willian has been gadding about in Dubai, and was barred from training, subject to the result of a coronavirus test which I presume was negative. KT3 has played 3 full games plus an extra 30 minutes in 7 days and Saka has played 2 and a half games over the same period. Meanwhile, Auba merely played twice but spent an overnight on the floor of an airport in Gabon. Gabriel and Pepe played virtually two full games and Xhaka played a game and a half. At the time of writing, I have seen no reports of further coronavirus tests or injuries but there are certainly going to be weary limbs and tired minds down our left flank! Much more seriously, Thomas Partey’s thigh strain sustained in the Villa match, has not recovered sufficiently for involvement in this match. That is a major blow.
I had hoped that MA8 had seen enough creative malaise and had resolved to amend it by changing the pattern of play going forward. There is little doubt, despite the three goals shipped against Villa, that he has improved our defensive organisation and individual performances. Gabriel has further stiffened the defence. I hoped it was time to shake-up the midfield and attack. In his pre-match presser, MA8 observed that although the Villa game “left a really bad taste”, he added that “after a bad result to change everything you do” is “a really bad temptation because a lot of things are working and it’s really clear the things we want to improve on and how we’re going to”. That sounds more like a tweak than a shake-up.
The possibility that the focus on improving the defence has contributed to the decline in our attacking potency has been debated at length in other fora. The third centre back stiffens the back line at the cost of a third midfielder. Unless you ask your centre forward to drift so far back that he is effectively the third midfielder meaning he is rarely in the box to finish an attack (!). Ultimately, we need two trustworthy centre backs screened by an energetic, defensively smart, deep lying midfielder to allow the other two midfielders freedom to join the attack. I think we should give Aubameyang the central attacker role rather than confine him to the left-wing pinging in crosses which he himself should be finishing. I would advance Saka to the left attacking position and start our ‘wild-card’ Pepe, (and give him the ball) because of the threat he poses when he gets an opportunity. Had we had Partey available, I would have started Joe Willock as the third midfielder because of his ability to get between the lines, join the attack and score goals but in Partey’s absence, I think we should add Luiz’s defensive nous and creative passing range as a deep-lying third midfielder between Ceballos and Xhaka. We need a third midfielder against Bielsa’s Leeds and Luiz can drop back into a back three as necessary. Hence my selection plays 4-3-3:
Leno
Bellerin, Holding, Gabriel, Tierney
Ceballos, Luiz, Xhaka
Pepe, Aubameyang, Saka
I am certain that this is not the team that MA8 will start as I expect him to stick with 3-4-3. Of course, he can do that with the above selection simply by dropping Saka back to left wing back and replacing Luiz with Nelson in the left attacking slot but I think MA8 will keep Auba wide left and start Laca centrally. He will also almost certainly choose Willian over Pepe. An absence of major changes is understandable as his key players left after the Villa game and only returned on Thursday, allowing him just three training sessions with his full squad. I suspect tired legs and the absence of the successful OT midfield pairing of Partey and Elneny will see him be very conservative. Willock, Nelson, AMN and Nketiah will start on the bench to provide energy in the second half. I expect MA8 to approach this game the way he approached Manure at OT though we will have to work harder to deal with the intensity of the Leeds press and I fear for the inevitable midfield pair of Xhaka and Ceballos against Leeds’ mobile midfield and attack. Despite the time pressures, I hope MA8 does manage to make clear to his players the improvements that he says he knows are required and that he can transform Arsenal into an effective attacking force again.
The Holic Pound
The value bet is 20/1 on a 3-2 victory for the Arsenal. However, our recent inability to create scoring chances or even take shots, let alone score goals, leads me to believe that such an outcome is unlikely. I really cannot see us scoring three goals even though Villa and even lowly Fulham managed to do just that at Elland Road. Despite improved defensive performances this season the Arsenal still don’t keep clean sheets very often, otherwise I would have plumped for a good old 1-0 to the Arsenal at 17/2. Thus, I’m going to have to push the boat out on us scoring twice (!) with 2-1 to the Arsenal at the shorter odds of 15/2.
Fingers and everything else crossed. We need a win. However, I think a point from Elland Road would be a good outcome given the circumstances. The first goal is going to be vital.
Enjoy the match, Holics.
