It is often said that a picture is worth a thousand words. How about numbers that paint a picture?
5-1 2-2; 0-0 1-0; 1-4 1-3 ; 1-2 0-5; 0-1 0-1; 0-3 ; 0-3; 1-3 0-2; 0-3 1-3; 2-2 1-2; 2-2 2-1; 2-0 2-2; 1-1 3-6; 0-2 1-1; 1-0 0-1; 0-0 3-0; 0-0 2-4; 2-0 0-3; 3-1 1-0
Those are the scorelines for Arsenal vs. Manchester City games in the Premier League from 2024-25 to 2007-2008 seasons, reverse chronologically ordered. And the picture thus painted is clearly illuminative, filled especially with sharp contrasts, of the shapes and forms depicted. If we go further back in the past, that clarity starts to narrate – no longer just hints at – a story that is rather too well known to require much repetition. But the past is another country, and let us just look forward to the future.
The job of a football manager/coach requires a very peculiar kind of madness – observing, along with Pascal, that man is so essentially mad that not to be mad amounts to just another form of madness – which often manifests itself in an obsessive search for excellence, especially in those who strive to implement a form of creative vision that goes beyond the ordinary spectacle of a sporting encounter that gets decided on the basis of just one statistic. Managers are, famously, in the “results business”, but the genius of a great football manager is to be able to live daily with the paradox that the best way to achieve “result” is not to focus on it, but to remain committed – in thoughts, words and actions – to their own personal vision.
Whatever one’s personal opinions about the two managers facing each other might be, no one can deny that each of them represent the archetype of a progressive, visionary football manager. While one of them has deservedly earned all the accolades by the virtue of how he has turned his vision into success (albeit with some of the greatest footballers in the history of sports to implement those ideas) and in the process became the most decorated manager in history, the other has taken a more deliberate approach of building towards a sustained and sustainable standard of excellence. While Mikel and his friend, mentor and onetime boss Guardiola share a common root – both being trained in La Masia with the Cryuff-ian paradigm of how football ought to be played, Mikel’s itinerant playing career – Scotland, France, England; in teams brimming with creative players and playing expansive football as much as in set-ups that valued pragmatic defense-first approach above anything else – has exposed himself to alternatives to that paradigm. His only trophy winning success had come on the back of such pragmatic performance by a limited team.
Since that Covid-interrupted 2019-20 season of empty stadiums when en route to the FA Cup success in his very first season as the Arsenal head coach (before he was promoted officially to the manager role), Arsenal beat Guardiola’s Manchester City 2-0, favorites in every tournament that season, in the semi-final at Wembley, thanks to a double from Mikel’s then captain and talisman, Arsenal had beaten City only thrice – twice in the PL, and once in the Community Shield in a penalty shoot-out. Mikel’s head-to-head record against Guardiola stands at: played 14, won 4, drew 2, lost 8. Pep and Jürgen Klopp, the ex-Liverpool manager, are the two opponents Arteta had faced most in the opposition dug-out, and his record against Klopp is better: 5-3-6.
The key to these numbers, especially for us Arsenal supporters, is that the trajectory of those results have been moving upwards in the last few seasons, as the meticulously built squad of players (not only of a very high standard of technical and physical abilities, but also capable of playing in tactically and positionally disciplined manner) have started to form a cohesive collective where their hunger, camaraderie and understanding of each other’s strengths and weaknesses can stand out as decisive factors in tightly contested matches against oppositions of equal quality.
To repeat: oppositions of equal quality, and not superior quality for the Arsenal squad of 2025-26 is as good as any in European football. Among all the positive transformations achieved by the club – Mikel playing a key part, but obviously and evidently not the only one playing a key part – in the last few years, hauling ourselves back out of that depressive cave of an inferiority complex against the best teams stands out, in my humble opinion, as the finest measure of our success. The entire squad know, and most importantly believe, that they are as good as anyone else, the fans feel that sense of positivity, respond to it and players feed off that support, as a result the opposition teams face the kind of intense psychological pressure at the Arsenal ground that for long had been missing since we had moved out of Highbury.
A lot has been written about our summer transfers – Arsenal now has a deep enough squad to better withstand the inevitable injuries, as well as a wider repertoire of skills and abilities that would allow Mikel to work on multiple different tactical variations. The players coming off the bench now bring their unique strengths that would present a different set of challenges to the opposition, and the substitutes can more often be involved in defining and decisive actions. The midweek Champions League victory away at Bilbao was a perfect example where the two substitutes combined successfully, twice, to bring home a 2-0 win that for the most part of the match didn’t seem likely.
While Mikel, having to start with possibly the least balanced and most incoherent Arsenal team in modern times, had to painstakingly build a squad capable of consistently challenging at the very highest level, Guardiola has to face a somewhat different challenge of rejuvenating his team as a generation of great players move past their prime. While getting the players he wants may not be exactly a challenging proposition, finding ways to rebuild the previous cohesiveness needs some time. I don’t mean that as a sign of sympathy to Pep or City – for that would naturally be ridiculous, even the most empathetic minded of football followers would find it difficult to engender such supportive emotions towards them, unless of course they are from the blue half of Manchester, in which case they themselves deserve all the derision that they face – but more of a potentially important factor for this Sunday’s encounter. Some of the City stalwarts that have offered them strong foundations over the years – Ederson, De Bruyne, Gundogan, Walker – have left, but they have brought in players of high quality: Donnarumma, Khusanov, Cherki, Aït-Nouri, Reijnders et al., and they would be as dangerous an opponent as ever, even though they might have lost two matches in the PL already.
We ourselves of course have brought in our fair share of new players, and against Bilbao we started a front three that had never played together. Mosquera continued his impressive deputizing for Saliba as Wilo was awarded a rare opportunity of a prolonged recovery period, staying on the bench. Martin Ødegaard and Bukayo Saka are still recovering, and though there is a minor chance of the captain being ready to face one of the title contenders, I think Mikel will choose to rely on his squad if there is any doubt about Martin’s fitness. If that happens, would he start Nwaneri – who has looked as accomplished as anyone else on the field whenever he played this season – in the Ødegaard role? Or would he err rather on the side of unpredictability and bring Eze into that more familiar creative midfield role, with Martinelli likely to find space in front of him to run into? Or just continue with the starting midfield from the midweek?
The rest of the positions seem more predictable, though Lewis-Skelly makes a good case of starting on the left back role.
This is my prediction for the starting line-up
Raya
Timber – Saliba – Gabriel – Calafiori
Zubimendi
Nwaneri – Rice
Madueke – Gyökeres – Martinelli
If we play to our strength, and the home support continues to offer that extra advantage, I think we should be able to make our defensive solidity count and find a way to score enough goals. A 2-0 scoreline in this match sounds rather unlikely, so all the more reason for me to predict it.
Come on Arsenal!
Dr F
Thankyou for an elegant and erudite summary in preview of a very big game tomorrow. I won’t be there having expected to be in Gloucestershire when I passed my ticket on ( to a worthy recipient) . I anticipate a tough and tactically interesting game . Last season’s 5-1 should have convinced doubters that we have no need to fear them . I don’t expect any of the formerly injured group to start but our bench looks mighty strong nowadays and they will increase its range and quality .
I hope Gyökeres can unleash the sort of performance he gave in Lisbon for Sporting against them and we can outplay them as we did in the last twenty minutes a few months back . I think 2-0 in our favour looks a very decent shout
A nice and easy read of changes made to personnel and mindsets, thank you Doctor Faustus.
I’m oddly calm and while I anticipate the tough test to come I am neither nervous nor unsure, I have little doubt of victory just the margin of said victory.
I rather suspect the ladies will have a far easier time dismantling the red side of Manchester.
Come on you rip roaring free scoring never boring awesome Arsenal.
A very philosophical preview. Cheers Dr F. Home debut for me today for this season, looking forward to it!
I really enjoyed reading that piece, Dr. F. Thank you. I concur with your starting team above, although at Borehamwood yesterday Dowman played the full 90 for the U21’s which might suggest Odegaard is ready to come back. Either way, I’m comfortable for Nwaneri to start, further support for your argument above as to just how far we have developed as a team.
Talking of Dowman, watch the u-21 highlights vs Wolves when they go up. He was the outstanding player on show, just beating Sagoe Jr. to that accolade, scored a superb goal and crashed another effort off the bar. 21CG told me pre-match that this would be his first outing for the U-21s. That is quite incredible.
Thanks Dr F, very enjoyable as ever.
Be happy with your team and score but they
usually get one so I will go for 3-1
It was wonderful to be in the stadium for last season’s 5-1 total demolition of the less than honest eleven in blue. A repeat of that scoreline would take me into Dreamland. However, I’ll be very happy however with a home win of any size and description.
I think we’ll see Nwaneri start if MO is still shoulder strapped and Arteta will again have a very strong bench to work with if changes are required as the game progresses.
Enjoy the game, Holics.
NLFE. COYG.
Good stuff, Dr F. Your scoreline and team will suit me fine. I too expect Saliba to regain his place and to see Mosquera relieve Timber late on as will MLS or Hincapié on the other side. I expect Ødegaard to start and would personally give Eze the nod over Martinelli, asking the Brazilian to rip the opposition defence apart in the closing stages with his pace. It may be a little too soon for Saka but MA8 knows! I have never before seen us in the comfortable position of being able to perm a front four from nine top players, any of whom I’d be happy to see start.
After last season’s spectacular exorcism, we need not fear the Creative Accountants but we should guard against over-confidence and complacency. The opposition are not the force that they were, and we are stronger than we were but the task remains significant and every man needs to turn up, bring his best and win his duels.
Go win, Gunners!
Thanks Doc, good stuff
I think Merino will start and maybe Eze not Martinelli.
A tighter fixture than last year.
1-0 to the Arsenal.
UTA.
Thanks Dr F – like CER I enjoyed reading that. Being of a simple type I wondered initially about the mention of Pascal, but it was cleverly integrated and illustrated well the perceptions of the modern manager. They used to say you had to be mad to be a goalkeeper but they spend more of their time these days sweeping up thsn diving headlong at a centre forward’s feet – almost a couple of hours off compared to the boss on the touchline.
Team selection will clearly depend on the fitness of several players but ain’t it grand to know that whoever plays is top, top quality. I’m still in any win will do territory when it comes to playing FC Slippery Lawyers Inc. but your 2-0 sounds ideal.
Mr Cygan was always a deep thinker.
Thanks Dr. F, very enjoyable read. Football never been just about football, politics and marketing are always played a big part if it. But today we have a chance beating this blue sportwhasing machine for the greater good.
If Ødegard not fit enough to start I think Merino will alongside Marinelli who is a great tormentor of MCheaters.
I like your scoreline.
COYG
Many thanks Dr F for another enjoyable read. We now have a squad in which the standard of the bench matches those chosen to start. This means the actual starting xl may not be entirely predictable from match to match…..and Mikel has oft stated he favours some unpredictability! I think Merino will replace Odegaard m/f, Wilo will come back in for Mosquera and Eze will get another start at LW with plenty of opportunities to bring on the subs whenever necessary.
Your 2-0 scoreline is very feasible but as our other drinkers above suggest any win will be absolutely ok.
COYRRR
Your usual treat for us, Dr F, discursive but thought-provoking. I’ll join CER and Trev in having luxuriated in the read.
Like Bath, I think this will be a close game whose closeness might not be fully reflected in the score. We will do well to achieve your 2-0 win, although it is well within the grasp of our deepened and improved squad. Touchline decisions may prove the difference.
How appropriate that you mention Pascal, a staunch defender of the scientific method and a student of probability, when it will be MA and Pep prowling the technical areas, arms waving and brains whirring as they calculate the fine margins.
Thanks everyone for the kind words!
Trossard and Merino starts, with Saka, Eze and Martinelli on the bench, as is White. That’s not a very weak bench, I would say.
Come on Arsenal!
What a dirty arrogant cheater this Bernardo Silva is.
Agreed. Silva has dog breath.
Las@15: MotM for rolling around on the ground, though.
A point salvaged, although not getting all three at home is a disappointmen. Parked buses are always difficult to overcome, high-quality parked buses the more so. Pep going full Sean Dyche. Slot will be the happiest with the result.
Your final sentence is true enough Ned, though I was happy for Gabi M and us with the late goal. The whole game was a sign of the times really I felt, two points dropped but they have become just another packed defence to overcome.
Liverpool can’t win every game but it does make beating Newcastle a priority now. Huge pressure on the right team selection and on the players to perform. Looking at the City goal, that cross from Calafiori resembled a 98th minute tired effort not an 8th minute opportunity to make something happen. We have the squad to really challenge. Let’s not look back and wonder what if.
A very frustrating day out in N5.
Thank Dennis for Eze and Martinelli!
The GHF Predictathon Leaderboard for Matchweek 5 has been posted, while the 5-match Form Guide makes its first appearance of the season. You know where to find them…
That was quick, Ned!
A good week for me on that table it seems!
Nice work, Ned.
From 5th bottom to 5th top. Rocket fuel stuff. The moon’s the next stop.
Much of the Monday morning quarterbacking concludes that Arsenal didn’t win yesterday’s match because MA8 picked Merino instead of a more creative player. I’m not a huge fan of the Merino, Zubi, Rice midfield and had Martin Odegaard been fit, I don’t think that trio would have started. However, I’m a fan of Arteta and wasn’t uncomfortable with a game plan that anticipated City would arrive on the front foot and need to be contained in the early stages before being beaten by the introduction of more guile and creativity, probably around 60 minutes.
It wasn’t lack of creativity that resulted in a draw however. Calafiori’s howler of a left footed cross was reminiscent of Trossard’s brainfart at Bournemouth which resulted in Saliba’s dismissal there last season. Arsenal were pressing hard at that stage. The whole midfield was in City’s half, as was most of the defence – a half decent cross might well have resulted in a goal chance. Instead, the exact opposite happened and sent an early torpedo deep into our hull. City hadn’t been in our half until they scored. Pep had gone full Tony Pulis.
The ship didn’t sink, we retained control well and Mikel made the changes planned for 60 minutes at half time. Several good chances were missed/saved/cleared before Martinelli produced a true world class moment to equalise.
Would things have been much different if Nwaneri or Eze started instead of Merino? Maybe. Maybe not. I was very pleased to see them both on the field when they were introduced.
Not a terrible day out but we need to cut out the cataclysmic errors that gift goals and red cards if both the Legue and Big Ears are to come home to the NHOF this season.
I hope our captain is fit for next weekend. His relentless pressing and creativity are a big miss.
Onward and upward.
>>>>>>>