And so to the Stadium of Light, where the season’s surprise package, Sunderland, and our old friend Granit Xhaka await in Saturday’s late afternoon game.
Before the season began, few would have expected this to be a top-four clash. No one in the Predictathon has the Black Cats finishing higher than 13th, and most believe they will be relegated. Feel the weight of those points.
Yet Régis Le Bris’s team sits fourth after 10 games, having only been beaten at Burnley and the Old Toilet. Their win total should be six, not five. They outplayed Everton last Sunday but let the Toffees escape Wearside with a draw.
Régis Le Bris
Le Bris is an intriguing character. Firstly, he is Breton. Brittany has produced many famous players but few coaches. Le Bris played as a centre-half for Rennes, the Ligue 1 club in the regional capital, making sporadic appearances for its first team over five seasons, despite being promising enough as a teenager to have played for France up to U-17 level. At 27, he chucked in a playing career that is well described as low key.
He turned to coaching in youth development football, quickly progressing to managing Rennes’s Academy. During this time, he earned a doctorate in sports psychology and a diplôme universitaire, a specifically French academic accolade, in the cognitive training of elite athletes. In 2012, he took charge of Lorient’s U-19 team, stepping up to the reserves and then his first senior head coach role in 2022. He left the club in June 2024 after Lorient was relegated. Nine days later, he joined Sunderland, guiding them back to the Premier League through the play-offs.
Like many of his generation of European coaches, he wants his teams to play with tactical flexibility within a structured but not rigid framework. It is post-Pep positional play, what Guardiola himself has called the ‘modern’ football of Iraola’s Bournemouth, Hürzeler’s Brighton, Howe’s Newcastle and Slot’s Liverpool.
Whether his teams start in a 4-2-3-1, a 4-3-3 or even the 3-4-3 he used for a season at Lorient and last weekend against Everton, they spend phases of every game playing in similar shapes, dropping into a compact 5-4-1 or 4-4-2 when out of possession, for example, or, when attacking, having a full back, a winger and an 8 create rotating triangles on the flanks to get behind the opposition’s back line.
If all this sounds familiar, it is. Listen to Le Bris talk, and you will hear many of the same themes that Arteta goes on about — high standards, consistency, adaptability, constant improvement, player development, team spirit, club culture and a connection to the fans.
The Opposition
A further similarity is that Le Bris has built his side on a solid defensive structure that denies opponents clear chances. Expected goals against (xGA) have been under 1.0 in half their games, and their average xGA per shot is 0.09; only ours is lower. When a shot is got off, it still has to beat Robin Roefs, the young Dutch keeper bought from NEC Nijmegen for €10.5 million in August. He is the Premier League’s leading shot-stopper so far this season.
Whether Le Bris starts with a back three, four, or five — his teamsheets for Sunderland’s past three games have used all three — Dan Ballard, formerly of this parish, is likely to be at the heart of it. When we sold him to Sunderland in 2022, he had won 16 Northern Ireland caps, which was 16 more than his appearances for our first team. He surely wouldn’t be keeping Saliba or Gabriel out of the team if he had stayed, so fair play to him for making it to the Premier League the long way round.
With Paraguay international Omar Alderete unavailable due to a lingering concussion, Ballard will likely be partnered with Lutsharel Geertruida, a Netherlands international on loan from Leipzig, and Nordi Mukiele, a one-cap France international. Both can operate as right-backs if Le Bris prefers a traditional back four.
A mis-healed wrist injury has denied last season’s regular left back, Dennis Cirkin, even a single Premier League minute and his understudy, Nottingham-born Norway U-21 defender, Leo Hjelde, has banjaxed his Achilles tendon. Reinildo Mandava, a long-standing fixture in the Mozambique national team, is likely to fill in at left-back/left wing-back. Trai Hume, the young Northern Ireland international, can fill the same roles on the right-hand side.
Twenty-year-old Noah Sadiki, a summer signing from Belgian champions Union Saint-Gilloise, and Xhaka will form the double pivot that is the side’s wellspring. A key part of the Brussels-born DR Congo international’s role is to ensure Xhaka, 13 years his senior, has the time and space he needs to orchestrate Sunderland’s play. I expect to see Timber and Calafiori spending a lot of time inverted in midfield to pen the pair back.
It is worth noting that Sadiki is one away from a five-yellows suspension. Xhaka has clearly mellowed in his old age: he has picked up only three yellows so far.
Le Bris began the season playing Xhaka and Sadiki in a midfield trio with Habib Diara, a highly regarded young Senegal international who arrived from Racing Strasbourg in the summer for €31.5 million, intended to let Le Bris play the same sort of 4-3-3 that Arteta does. However, Diara hasn’t played since Matchweek 4 because of a groin injury.
Bertrand Traoré is the likely starter on the right wing. ‘Holics may remember the Burkina Faso international from his time at Chelsea and Villa. He arrived on Wearside late in the transfer window from Ajax. The in-form Enzo Le Fée, who like his manager, is from Brittany, is the probable starter on the other flank. Sunderland paid Roma €23 million to turn his loan last January into a permanent deal. Le Fée was a member of France’s team that competed at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics.
Le Bris has another promising 20-year-old Belgian-born African at his disposal, Chemsdine Talbi. Comfortable on either wing. Talbi switched his allegiance from his country of birth to Morocco, the country of his descent, this year. He has been rewarded with 13 minutes of World Cup qualifying game time. He arrived in the summer from Club Brugge, where he won a league title and a domestic cup, for €20 million.
Up front, Le Bris has been starting another of his Breton imports, Wilson Isidor. Now 25, Isidor played for France’s youth teams but never progressed beyond the U-20s. He joined Sunderland on loan from Zenit St Petersburg the summer before last, with the loan becoming permanent last February for the modest fee of €6 million. He is the leading goalscorer this term with four. No one else has more than one.
Dutch international Brian Brobbey, who scored 56 goals in 163 matches for Ajax, was intended to address the goals shortage. An early-season ankle injury has meant he has yet to start a game. This leaves Sunderland relying on corners or long throws by Xhaka, Mukiele and Le Fée for goals.
As well as the injured already mentioned, winger Romaine Mundle and centre-back Aji Alese, both squad players, are unavailable.
The Arsenal
Our own injury list remains long. The light at the end of the tunnel is getting brighter, but for Saturday, Viktor Gyökeres, Kai Havertz, Jesús, Noni Madueke, Gabriel Martinelli and Martin Ødegaard are still in Matron’s hands (Matron!). Kepa Arrizabalaga is 50/50. Arteta avoided mentioning Martin Zubimendi in his pre-match press conference, but the Spaniard might be in doubt, having got a knock last weekend.
I can’t see Arteta starting anything but his strongest available team. Thus:
Raya
Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori
Rice, Zubimendi, Eze
Saka, Merino, Trossard
This looks set to be a close and tactical game. Le Bris has rebuilt a Championship side with athletic, physical but technically gifted players fit for the Premier League and his style of play. He has also quickly got it to gel. At the other end of the pitch, they are skilled and inventive high-pressers. No team has salvaged more points from losing positions this season than Sunderland. The mood in the Stadium of Light is that they can get something out of this game.
For our part, neutralising Xhaka’s playmaking and keeping Sadiki diverted from his supporting duties will be key. In the end, it might come down to us having better players, with one of them producing the piece of magic that will make the difference, and ensure we meet the paramount objective of coming home with all three points.
1-0 to the Arsenal to extend our winning streak on the road to seven games in all competitions and to stretch the time since Raya last had to pick the ball out of his net beyond 13 hours.
Enjoy the game, ‘holics, near and far.
Great stuff, Ned. I’d take your 1-0 to the Arsenal with both hands, and right speedily at that. If that team is fit and starts, I’d back us to score a couple, though. A clean sheet in addition to a goal or two would be splendid.
Just win baby.
COYG
Thanks for your preview Ned. I realised as I read that I know next to nothing about Sunderland . We all know Granit who will be up for the fight and Danny Ballard who , at one stage, promised to be the next Tony Adams , but our biggest problem might be the hostile home crowd . We should win this but we will need a lot of hard work and authority in midfield . Football is perverse and as we seem unlikely to get many goals perhaps Merino will notch again. As an ex Newcastle player he won’t be popular with the Mackems. My default score suggestion has been 2-0 this season and I am going to trot it out again .
A wealth of information on, for me, a relatively unknown opponent – Xhaka excepted – of course. This game certainly has a banana skin component and I’d be very happy with a 1-0 away win to take us to the break and beyond when we might expect the return of the missing magnificent seven.
Their fans will huff, puff and try to blow the house down but our team is fairly well seasoned and capable of overcoming the worst of vitriol poured from on high.
Another fascinating preview Ned. I learned a lot.
I’ll be travelling up the A1 tomorrow for my third visit to the stadium of light.
A thoroughly enjoyable preview Ned!
So you say it would be a battle of the northerners? The Basque vs. the Breton? The inscrutably passionate vs. the passionately inscrutable?
Granit I expect will have a great performance, and giving him no time on the ball — a roaming Calafiori would be central to that — would be a good idea. Long-rangers are a minor weakness in Raya’s game, and he will likely face a few.
Fully agreed with your team. Eze has been gradually improving his understanding of the system and his teammates, and his ability to produce moments of match defining brilliance can be a key tomorrow.
Jesus is back in first team outdoor trainings. But this match is surely too early for him. Probably back in the squad in early December.
Let us continue the no-goals-conceded run. A 2-0 would do nicely.
Come on Arsenal!
Thanks Ned, a very informative preview as ever. I had hopes at one time that Ballard would form a musical centre back partnership with Zach Medley but it wasn’t to be. At least Medley got a game I think.
Anyway, I watched Sunderland play Everton last week and thought they were certainly whole-hearted but very limited going forward and nowhere near our level. If we play well then 3-0 seems doable to me but any win will do given the injury list.
Cheers, Ned&The Monks. Very thorough research on the Sunderland squad, thanks!
I’ll go with DrF’s 2-0.
Safe drive, C100!
Yet another peerless preview, Ned. Thanks very much.
I tend to agree with OM@6 about Sunderland. I watched that game vs Everton as well and for the first half Sunderland were atrocious and ought to have been buried. They recovered well in the second half, however, to earn their draw. Perhaps the lesson is that we need to be clinical with our chances.
Regarding their amazing position in the league more than a quarter of the way through the season, it is perhaps instructive that they have the sixth best home record on the PL this season, averaging 2.2 points per game. Impressive stuff. At the same time, these points have come, in chronological order, against West Ham, Brentford, Villa (at that time struggling), Wolves and Everton. If we play at anything like the recent level, I suggest we are likely to pass the test.
Thanks Ned. The monks must have burnt the candles at both ends to compile such a rich dossier on our opponents this weekend. Your preview has filled major gaps in my knowledge about this coach – who appeared to spring from nowhere – and his team which, for me, like others in this fine hostelry, contained only a pair of familiar names. I haven’t seen them play but I do have a huge sense of this match being a potential banana skin.
Sections of the media appear desperate to prick the bubble of Arsenal’s defensive achievement, going as far as inventing a ‘shot on target’ from the cross plucked from Nketia’s head by Raya. Others work to fabricate a slur by suggesting that the quality of football played by current top PL teams (they really only have one target) has declined dramatically since the ‘halcyon days’ of Klopp vs peak Guardiola. The chips on those shoulders are obvious and, frankly, for me there has never been a team like Brazil 1970. Hey ho! But Wengerball Marks I – III came close over several seasons.
Gordon Strachan once observed that “The longer a run lasts, the closer it gets to its end.” I feel that that run of clean sheets now hangs like an extra pressure over forthcoming games and, while the first goal that Raya concedes will feel like a dagger to my heart, and will be celebrated wildly in some contemptible quarters, the important harvest from this game is a win. Another clean sheet would be a lovely bonus but I sense that may be difficult here.
Go win, Gunners!
We are lucky to have you, Ned – another piece written with care and massive attention to detail. 🎶🎶 All the nice monks like a candle … 🎶🎶
I’m pleased Matt and CER agree that Sunderland can be pretty dire on their day too as your preview, as usual, had convinced me we were about to face a team of young, athletic superstars – well apart from all the injured ones. Having to deal with a debilitating injury list seems to be something else Le Bris has in common with Mikel Arteta.
Judging by your preview there is another problem lurking for Le Bris. Unless I’m mistaken – which is very possible – there is an African Cup of Nations looming this winter and from your player summary it looks like Sunderland could be losing a lot of players for the duration. Apart from harming their League position, that could repair some of our scores in the Predictathon 🤞🏻
My thanks NBN, a great read and the perfect one to make my final comments on, I’m hoping Xhaka remembers that we are still friends and he can relax a bit today, hoping for an Arsenal double win but Chelsea will be tough for the ladies, I’ll keep reading and enjoying but I will no longer be making any comments, thanking those who welcomed me back, both of you lol.
Hopefully this is finally the season where Arsenal lift that wonderful trophy again because I really would like to see it while I can still remember it.
Off we go. Sunderland bound.
COYG!
Cheers Ned, another amazing fact filled preview.
As others have pointed out the Mackems have had a relatively easy start to their season – notwithstanding they still had to win those games. Hopefully this means their 4th place is a false reflection of their quality and coming up against our quality will prove to be their undoing. Countering that, every game is a test to overcome – there is no easy ride.
A win will be perfect to put pressure on those below us in the league – if we do this with a clean sheet thst will be a bonus.
COYRRR
@10 – ‘young athletic superstars’ give me the shakes after ever one of Ned’s previews – perhaps a sense of some perverse pleasure on the part of our learned scribe or maybe one of the monks? 🙂
Thanks Ned, another top preview.
I may of course be wrong, but I’m not worried about this one at all.
I reckon 2 or 3 nil without too much stress.
I have no fond memories of Xhaka as an Arsenal player who really had one good season with us amongst all the other shenanigans. Sunderland is about his level.
UTA
Thanks for the kind words, all. I eschewed the customary dip into the past because the Sunderland squad is so unfamiliar. Some good points made above. Sunderland’s fixture list will get harder, and AFCON will stretch Le Bris’s resources. They have scored only 12 goals in their first ten games, and lean heavily on having the joint second-meanest defence in the league. The Opta supercomputer’s current forecast has Sunderland ending the season in mid-table, Predictathon players will be cheered to know.
As a general point, all PL clubs are recruiting more athletic and physical players, our own included. Teams cannot play the intense football of the PL without them. Nor can those players play in the PL with any success unless they are technically accomplished. We have become so accustomed to seeing Rice consistently drop a 40-yard pass on Saka’s instep and Saka controlling it flawlessly that we tend to forget how incredibly skilful these players are.
DG@11: Good to see you in, as ever.
COYG. And thanks, Ned. Le Bris has a remarkablyvsimilar name to one Simon Legree of infamous literary fame. Let us hope that ignonimy will be both of their final fates.
Dr F@5: I have often wondered whether the current cluster of top-level Basque coaches is a historical anomaly or a function of regional identity, and, if the latter, how they differ from coaches from regions with, say, Celtic identities (Brittany, Galicia, Wales, Scotland, Ireland). There is probably a thesis for someone in that.
Bath@9: Le Bris comes over as being highly thoughtful about how a team needs to play to survive in the Premier League and the sort of players it needs to play that way. In his pre-match pre-conference, he also made an observation about Arteta being the only coach with the ability to be on the touchline close to the action of the moment and yet still, as Le Bris put it, see the whole pitch. That struck me as a very coach’s coach perspective.
BtM@14: If I did a dossier on our squad, you’d never come out from behind the sofa again. 🙂
Spuds giving away a last minute equalizer never gets old as a comedy routine.
bt8@17: Doesn’t Legree survive, though, while it is Tom who perishes?
Your matchday linguistic trivia, an initial ‘Le’ is a common marker of a Breton surname. Sunderland’s Enzo Le Fée is another example, as is Atletico Madrid’s centre-half Robin Le Normand. Le Saux, as in Graeme Le Saux, is also a Breton name, although he was born in the Channel Islands.
The side is as predicted by Ned in his preview.
A young bench plus Kepa, Ben and Norgaard.
Re: Ned, Encyclopedia Britannica comments re the character in Uncle Tom’s Cabin thusly: “Simon Legree, the principal villain in the story, represents greed and brutality, a man who chose sin over reform. Legree forces enslaved persons into different roles in his life.”
Enough said. Le Bris may have survive relegation but hopefully his team will not prevail on the day nor will they take points off the Gunners’ apple cart.
I’m getting Newcastle/ West Ham vibes here
Holy moly, I trust the oxygen bottles are fully charged and parachutes well packed, C100!
Odds in the plodding halfwit that is Xhaka being sent off this evening?
It’s coming ……I hope
It did, twice but then it went again. Disappointing as that late equaliser feels now, this may look like a big point at season’s end. We were damn unlucky not to win this but, God, were that rabid! I hope that they welcome Shitteh and the Dippers the same way and get as permissive a homer referee as they had tonight.
Elbow in the face- nothing to see here. I hope they get the same sympathetic treatment from referees against Liverpool and City. Inveterate optimist, me…
Stokederland.
Haven’t seen the game, but conceding a last-minute equaliser always feels like a defeat.
>>>>>>>