It hardly seems two minutes since Buendia scored an added time winner at Villa Park to rob us of the point that was the least we deserved from that game and we now face Unai Emery’s mob again. It’s first against third with a three point gap and a financially doped predator in between us in second place and yet another must win game! In truth, it feels like every game this season legitimately carries that label.
The Opposition
Villa had a shocking start to the season, taking only 3 points from their first 5 games while scoring only a single goal. However, that’s all changed and they are flying now with 11 consecutive wins in all competitions – exceeding a 111 year record. Moreover, this season they have won 18 points from losing positions in the Premier League – 6 more than the next best team. So, a single goal lead which has been our default late game position of late, would appear to be unlikely to deliver the three points that we need. After their come-back victory against the Chavs at the weekend, we can expect the Villa players’ tails to be up and they will come to N5 confident of taking something from this game.
Last Saturday, in his post-match interview, Watkins who was sent on for Malen on 60 minutes and scored two goals, claimed, with a smirk, that Villa’s transformation from an absolutely hopeless first half outfit to the dominant team in the last 30 minutes, was the result of ‘tactical genius’. The implication taken was that this tactical genius was Emery, but Watkins didn’t actually say that. The addition of Watkins, Onana and Sancho and the movement of Tielemans to the ‘ten’ position seemed to confuse the Chav defence. The putative ‘tactical genius’ himself stated that “a team must be resilient to win a match in the second half with the same players or, with different players”. Note well these words of a true genius!
I have seen it claimed that Emery is a world class coach to whom Arsenal didn’t give a fair crack of the whip. I disagree. At Arsenal he made bizarre team selections, had his teams adopt bizarre tactics and play out suicidally from the back. Watching his teams made my eyes bleed and furthermore he threw several Premier League games to prioritise the Europa League over a very achievable fourth place offering Champions League football, to the benefit of the mob up the road; then having reached the Europa League Final, he presided over an execrable performance in which we were humiliated by the Chavs. As coach at PSG, where the league title is an annual gimmeee by virtue of alleged financial doping and creative accountancy, he managed to finish second. At PSG and at Arsenal, he proved himself incapable of coaching a top team to the top silverware yet in Spain and at Villa he has successfully made middle-grade teams competitive. He’s the footballing epitome of the middle manager who reaches his/her level of incompetence and needs to be re-assigned to a role in which the capacity to wreak havoc is limited.
I am reminded of an observation of former Celtic and Scotland doctor, John Fitzsimons, on the appointment of Ally McLeod (look him up, kids) to the role of Scotland coach. Doc Fitzsimons sat in the dugout alongside the great Jock Stein for over a decade as his team won 9 consecutive league titles giving him an almost unique perspective on football management. On McLeod’s appointment as Scotland coach, Fitzsimons observed, “At Aberdeen, McLeod showed that he can make average players good but can he make good players great?” The answer was abundantly clear at the 1978 World Cup Finals in Argentina from which there’s a clip of Fitzsimons sitting on the bench yawning during a game in which a talented Scotland midfield toiled aimlessly while McLeod simulated a series of tonic-clonic seizures. In a way Fitzsimons’ observation is a variant of the ‘Gus Caesar effect’ described in Fever Pitch (I assume our readers have read Fever Pitch – if not, why not?). I think that observation applies to Emery. As does a propensity to tonic-clonic seizures on the touchline!
Emery’s primary strategy out of possession is a 4-4-2 formation to congest central areas and force opponents wide, employing a high defensive line to shrink the pitch and catch opponents offside with selective pressing triggered by poor touches or back passes, while Martinez plays ‘sweeper keeper’ behind the high defensive line. This formation morphs into a fluid 3-2-4-1 or 3-2-5 in possession, building patiently from the back through a box midfield, often shifting from a controlled, slow build-up to a rapid, direct incisive attack by vertical passes through the lines into channels for fast runners like Watkins and Rogers while overloads are created by wingers moving centrally and full-backs overlapping or underlapping.
Despite this usual approach, I expect Emery to adopt the tactic that has become familiar or indeed, almost invariable from teams visiting TNHOF over the last few seasons: a deep block when we have possession with a nine or ten man defence to stifle our attacks, making rapid breakaway attacks from balls over the top, aiming to preserve a 0-0 scoreline or better still (for them) hold onto a stolen lead until late in the game when they will, if necessary, throw the kitchen sink at us with the aim of winning the game or salvaging a point. It’s become all too familiar and, given the pattern of our last several games with late jitters, exactly what I expect Villa to do.
The Villa team will be very familiar given how recently we have played them. Their glove butler will be the pantomime villain Martinez who will play that role to his utmost. Their defence has been shorn of Cash through suspension due to his fifth yellow card and their attack will also be weakened by his absence. Mings and Torres are expected to remain unavailable and they have no specialist right back cover so it will be intriguing to see how Emery addresses that problem and whom he adds to the backline of Konsa, Lindelof and Maatsen. Kamara also acquired his fifth yellow but will be easier to replace with Bogarde or Onana likely to join McGinn, Buendia and Tielemans in midfield. Upfront it seems likely Watkins will be restored to the starting XI at the expense of Malen with in-form Rogers playing alongside him.
Villa’s recent run has been extraordinary, scoring 27 goals to outperform their xG of 18.66, ten coming from outside the box, three more than any other side. I trust that reversion to the mean is imminent and that Mikel will instruct our midfielders to block attempts from range.
The Arsenal
We seem to have established a new pattern of play over the last four games, indeed in every game since the added time defeat to Villa (have I mentioned that?) bar the dismantling of Bruge. We have dominated first halves, created a barrowload of chances only to spurn most of them with near-misses, feeble efforts or by drawing outrageous saves or goal-line clearances from the opposition. Yet, we have often taken a first half or early second half lead but, critically, haven’t killed off the opposition by establishing the unassailable lead that our dominance and chance creation deserved. Second halves usually begin with similar dominance and missed chances but around the hour mark we seem to run out of steam as, despite our profligacy, or perhaps because of it, all our players have expended massive efforts and several look quite exhausted.
In stark contrast to Villa, Arsenal have scored ONE GOAL from 9.23 xG in open play (excluding penalties) in their last four games. Another situation where we must hope for reversion to the mean. Of course, we must note that four of our last six goals have been own goals courtesy of generous oppositions and that has helped us maintain our position at the top of the league despite our ongoing epidemic of injuries and shyness in front of goal.
The number and, moreover, the clustering of injuries are undoubtedly major factors in generating this pattern of matches. All our automatisms in possession and our defensive understandings are dependent on familiarity and practice while replacements, no matter their individual talents, cannot suddenly reproduce that fluency while players returning from injury can take time to re-establish the groove. At the outset this season, we looked extremely well stocked with quality defensive cover, some said overstocked, but we are now down to bare bones with kindergarten centre backs being considered as potential starters in the bereft right back slot. Before the Brighton game we added Timber and, in the warm-up, Calafiori to the casualty list. I’ve seen nothing official about their injuries or how long they are expected to be out but I’ve seen rumours that both suffered hamstring injuries so that will mean weeks rather than days. On Saturday the return of Gabriel for a 20 minute workshop on defence stabilisation was a timely godsend and hopefully he will have experienced no reaction to his exertions and is fit to start against Villa.
Which brings us to our starting XI. Mikel has key decisions to make at right back, midfield, centre forward and left wing. I would really like to see Rice return to his left ‘8’ position where he can influence proceedings at both ends of the pitch but I think that, if he recovers from his obvious exhaustion at the end of the Brighton game, he will be asked to reprise his performance at right back as I don’t expect either Timber or White to be fit for this game. Mikel is so keen on a right-footed plus left-footed centre back pairing that I cannot see him switching either Hincapié or MLS across to right back. Thus Merino will likely be called upon to play left ‘8’ as I really don’t see Mikel throwing caution to the wind by playing both Ødegaard and Eze together against Villa unless the latter is asked to start from wide left. I expect Martinelli to get that shirt given the battering Trossard took against Brighton. And then there is the $64,000 or £60m plus question. Do we start Gyökeres again in the hope that more game time can bring more fortune, more integration and more confidence through a goal or two? Or do we give Jesùs a chance to lead the line from the start. The latter’s energy and interplay for 20 minutes on Saturday clearly lifted the team and if it were my choice Jesús would start but I expect Mikel to choose Gyökeres again. Hence, I expect our starting line up to be:
Raya
Rice, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapié
Ødegaard, Zubimendi, Merino
Saka, Gyökeres, Martinelli
Villa will come determined to win this game to reel us in, and will, at least in phases of the game, try to throw the kitchen sink at us. If we still have the capacity to transition quickly when we break up their attacks that is when we should strike and where the pace of Martinelli and Saka, and the bull-like, powerful running of Gyökeres may be most productive. I would retain the intricate skills of Trossard, Jesús, Eze and Madueke for the second half if we need to prise open a stubborn defence.
Although many commentators are pointing out that our unrequited Xg means that sooner or later we will give someone a proper pummelling, I can’t foresee anything but a tight, hard fought affair and an angst-ridden end to proceedings. To me, it feels like being another nervy 2-1 to the Arsenal.
Enjoy the game, Holics, if you can, wherever you are watching.
Go win Arsenal!
Cheers Baff. Comprehensive and consumate, a very good preview indeed.
I like Emery, and probably rate him a bit more than you do, but I can’t watch a team of his, even one playing brilliantly, without the suspicion that the wheels are about to come off. If Villa finish top 5 then it’s a good season for them. Annoyingly, I think we are playing them (twice) at the peak of their powers. But we are, contrary to how it has felt at tight moments in recent matches, really good at football, and I think we’ll be looking to put things right after they snatched a lucky win last time out.
Let’s keep a clean sheet. And take a couple of chances for once. 2-0 to the good guys.
I wrote this for the last drinks but was underground and by the time I resurfaced and got some signal back the preview was up. So, it’s not really anything to do with the Villa game but I’m gonna post it anyway…
Just thinking about the league…
City’s good form can look a bit daunting after recent years when they’ve been so effective at picking up points in the second half of the season. But we’ve definitely played the tougher fixtures so far. Let’s see how they navigate some of the difficult away fixtures that we’ve already come through and see how they are doing in a couple of months.
Adam Clery did a piece last week where he basically said that having a defence as solid as we do whilst not scoring as many goals as we’d like will certainly give us as fans some uncomfortable matches, but is just as effective a way to win the league as scoring hatfulls and ocassionaly leaking at the back. He still thinks the underlying metrics are firmly on our side.
We’ve not turned up at City’s place and beaten them in the league in any of our recent tilts at the title. My suspicion is that a draw would be enough this year, but I reckon if we win that one we’ll definitely win the league.
I think we will score more goals in the second half of the season than the first, and if we keep Saliba and Gabriel available then we won’t concede much either. Saka is playing beautifully but must be looking to go on a tear and start putting up some numbers. If Odegaard gets another 5 or 6 PL goals this season it would be huge for us, and that’s hardly a fanciful notion. Rice has got a few more to come.
If Rice, Saka, Odegaard, Eze, Trossard, Gabis middle and small, Victor, Noni and Havertz all scored 4 more league goals (which doesn’t look wishful thinking to me) then we’d be averaging over 2 goals a game. Given what we concede, that’s plenty. Sure, some of them might not reach their quota. But on the other hand, I bet Saka manages more than four. To say nothing of the defenders and Zubi who can all chip in. I’d not be surprised if we battered a couple of teams to take that average closer to 3 goals a game from January onwards.
For all that city look good when they turn it on, I still think we are the best team in this league by at least 6 points, if not more.
A masterful preview Bath including your assessment of Arteta’s options for team selection. I had started writing a preview but am glad we got our wires crossed because it gives me a free day today and your preview covered all my points and considerably more. Let’s right our ship and send some cannonballs into the Villa galleon.
Apologies bt8. Your offer both slipped my memory and skipped the schedule! Yesterday,I saw the gap in the schedule and thought I needed to fill it.
First-rate preview, Bath. You’ve nailed Emery: coach for the good but not for the great.
A masterly preview Bath with so many bases covered. I watched Villa win at Chelsea and they could have been sunk without trace by halftime , completely outplayed as they were. They were also very dim at defending set pieces especially those served up by Reece James . Their recovery matched the one they made last season at our place when we led 2-0 and then fell apart .
I do fear we are going to suffer if we have to play Declan at right back because we need his drive in midfield. I do hope Timber is able to recover . MLS is nowhere near his form of last season , understandably because he has less first team action and we must keep a careful eye on the brilliant Rogers who is in prime form.
GSD analyses Emery well. He made some extraordinary tactical decisions in his second season and he still mangles the English language as puzzlingly as he used to when in charge of us which may cause his players to be a little disconcerted .
Our next two home games will give us a good indication of where we stand , I’ve lost a little bit of belief simply because we are suffering so much from key injuries . The return of Gabriel, Havertz and Timber will be very welcome and very necessary and I believe Jesus should definitely start ahead of Gyokeres . I see this as a 1-1 draw but pray my prediction proves too pessimistic.
Excellent thanks, Bath !
I’m clearly neither as generous or basically as nice as GSD as I can’t bear Emery. He ruined our team and helped to darken the atmosphere around the club in his oh-so-long 18 months in charge. He wasn’t alone in those achievements by any means but he most definitely picked teams for Premier League matches which protected players for his own ambitions, i.e. proving he was the Europa League king which, in the event, failed spectacularly. Playing out from the back to an absent, wandering midfield does not sound like the work of a tactical genius to me, anymore than does trying to defend with the same undisciplined personnel.
I tried to choose a paper today from a very poor between Christmas and New Year selection. I made the mistake of opening the Daily Mail to see a major article on the Arsenal – Villa contest. “Ridiculed and patronised at Arsenal” the headline read before going on to sing the praises of the “tactical genius”. I didn’t actually get far before deciding not to part with my hard earned. Pfftttt.
Your team looks likely, although I would be inclined to try Gyokeres as sub against tiring legs as he seems unable to race against fresh ones. Unless, of course, Santa has a late Havertz shaped present lying in wait for us ….. Let Gabi Jesus get amongst their defenders to start with. The guy looks hungry for goals again and will actually assist our press. I also wouldn’t be averse to seeing Norgaard in midfield as he likes a tackle and might help to contain that nasty, fat arsed McGinn geezer.
Anyhoo, Come on you Reddsss ! Any win will do. A big, flash, high scoring one would be just fab.
Trev@previous drinks: I merely relay McDonald’s thoughts. It strikes me as a curious move, too, especially in a World Cup year. Guehi wouldn’t be an automatic first choice at any position across the back line, assuming we have a fully fit squad, highly improbable though that seems. A loan to the end of the season would suit us, but probably not the player.
Ned @8
Palace could get a fee if they sell him now so a loan makes no sense from either a financial or playing perspective. Getting defenders who want to play at the World Cup to join us in January is going to be very difficult as we have such a high quality defence – nb the problem MLS has . I did suggest we could sell Saliba for £100 m and sign Guehi on a free but the combination of Willie and Gabriel is very special and some things are more important than money
FWIW I was going to predict this starting XI in my partially written preview:
Raya
Timber Saliba Gabriel Calafiori
Ødegaard Zubimendi Rice
Saka Jesus Martinelli
If Timber and Calafiori miss out with injury I had Rice and MLS in their steads, and added Merino in Rice’s midfield spot.
Picking a team with so much in flux is not for the faint hearted, but Mikel is not that, and our bench is still strong.
TTG – sell Saliba ??!! How very dare you !
We got Declan Rice for half price – that’s no reason to sell Saliba for half price too. Or at all ! Pure heresy 😱
Trev@11: 👍
Well I did say @7 that Santa might have a Havertz shaped surprise for us. And he has. Kai Havertz is in the squad for the Villa game. 👍🏻👍🏻
Thanks Bath, excellent preview of the game and a fair reckoning of
UE’s worth. If the injury situation has not improved at the back then
the team looks about right though I think Leo will still start for this one.
Villa usually seem to get a goal against us so I will go for a cheerful
4-1 today as we exploit the returning Gabriel’s set piece prowess.
A preview of the highest quality (although even after all these years, the mention of “Our Mahomad Ally” and a mental picture of him in our dugout doesn’t exactly brighten my day).
I think they’re all ‘must wins’ from here on in. With an unblemished squad, we have the capacity to achieve that. All of those injuries at the back represent an impediment but even seriously wounded, we have the skillset to overcome Villa and I think that will happen tonight.
A win of any colour, size or persuasion, please, Arsenal.
Superlative preview Bath! Thank you.
Your team selection is the likeliest given the injuries, however I hope at least one of Timber or White is available so that Rice can play in his regular left sided no. 8 role where I think he is likely the best in the world today. If neither has recovered, maybe Nørgaard can deputize?
Similarly, would be great to have Calafiori back for this match, but if not Hincapié would play down the left, though he won’t be as adept at the roaming LB role. If both Hincapié and Calafiori are fit, but neither of Timber/White, maybe Piero as the RB?
Agree with GSD’s description that Emery’s teams always kind of appear to be one bad day away from imploding even when they are flying high. Unsettling them earlier in the match with fast, high pressing game and then keeping control over the tempo and possession would be an effective way to induce self-doubt among the Villa players. Martinelli and Jesus, who also have a good understanding between them and Gabi typically plays a less predictable and more decisive football with his senior countryman next to him, interchanging positions.
Hoping for this starting eleven:
Raya
Timber-Saliba-Gabriel-Calafiori
Ødegaard-Zubimendi-Rice
Saka-Jesus-Martinelli
Controlled but front-footed football will suit us better, whereas more chaotic back-and-forth will play to their advantage. A composed, professional, efficient 2-0 home win will be just fine.
Come on Arsenal!
After 11 wins it’s time Villa lost – and they will. So my friend Laura Vavridges told me 😉
Bad news. Rice s out. Merino or Nørgaard?
Trev@17: I think there is a country and western song about your friend Laura, sung by the duo of Fat Chance and Slim Pickens.
Bath@18: Bad news. The way things are going, any ‘holic goimg to the gamw should take their boots. You never know…
On the plus side there seems to be positive noises around Timber’s return.
Matt @20, I’ve heard the opposite. I hope your source is right!
Bath@21 it was just The Athletic but seems they were right as Timber starts and
Benny back too.
Raya. Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie,
Zubi, Merino, Ode
Saka, Vik. Leo
Strong team even without Declan
Havertz back on the bench, too.
Some devilishly tricky minutes management will be required of Mikel in his substitutions.
Bench: Arrizabalaga, White, Lewis-Skelly, Norgaard, Eze, Martinelli, Madueke, Havertz, Jesus.
Despite all the wailing and rending of clothing in the goonersphere about Declan’s injury, that looks a pretty strong team to me. Great to see Saliba and big Gabby back in the centre of defence, as well as Kai being on the bench.
COYG!
My 4-1 prediction might have been a bit optimistic,
anyway, all to play for COYGs!!
Tough contest. Villa dangerous on the break. All to play for as you say, Matt. Subs will be interesting.
Big Gabby scores!
Set piece King Gabby get in!
Ode to Zubi and in for 2-0!
Nice goal, Ode did well and good finish from Zubi
Whatever the boss said at half time…..
The Arsenal means business, serious business.
COYG
Putting them back in their pram
I might have been to pessimistic about being optimistic @26 😂😂🥳
And good to see Gabi J back on an Arsenal scoresheet
A 4-0 game but for Matt’s prediction. 😊
OM and Trev’s friend Laura know!
Mikel got the tactics sorted out over the oranges, and then it was off to the races.
Another messy late goals to spoil the clean sheet, though.
Our Osaka correspondent knows.
Could be why we sent him to Osaka? 🤔😃🍷
Blood hell, the first half I was concerned how Villa was attacking us however we blew them away in the second half with a ruthless display and determination from the lads in red and white! We done boys. You made my day!
1-2-3-4
Can I have a little more
5-6-7-8-9-10
I love you
All together now
All together now
All together now
All together now
…
I was one of the biggest wailers about Declan’s absence but he is the best all-purpose midfielder in Europe and any team would miss him . Villa made breaks in the first half that Declan would have prevented but Martin Odegaard produced a storming second half display which allied to our much higher press was key to the victory. Great result – hope Big Gabby went off just as a precaution
Yeah, sorry about the clean sheet at the end there😂
We were due more clinical finishing and delivered it at just
the right time, good finishes from Zubi, Leo and Gabi J.
I couldn’t see any way a side this good would keep missing really.
Zubi was excellent today. Really blossomed going forward in Rice’s absence. MØ8 found his old sublime first touch and his bag of disguised passes, and was also excellent. But the whole team deserves flowers. So reassuring to have Saliba and Big Gabi back in harness, too. And with Big Gabi, back, OG could take a well-earned rest.
>>>>>>>