And so to the Stadium of Stone, where we welcome, in the ironic sense of the word, Manchester United for Sunday’s late afternoon game, after three wins and a draw away in four competitions.
It will be the 102nd time we have hosted them for a home league match since Newton Heath first travelled to the Plumstead enclosure, as the Illustrated Sporting and Dramatic News called it, to be beaten 3-2 by Woolwich Arsenal in March 1895. Our Scottish international centre-forward Robert Buchanan “headed the ball through the Newton goal from a scrimmage, thus giving the Arsenal their winning point,” the publication reported. Memo to Mr Jover: In football, there’s little new under the sun.
After Amorin
Our visitors will arrive greatly uplifted by their victory last weekend over their crosstown rivals under their latest interim manager, Michael Carrick. Shall we see the team that battered the Oil-landers with such combative vim and vigour, or will the wheel of false dawns that blighted the Red Mancs under Rubin Amorim before he was given the heave-ho, turn once more?
Carrick is a go-to for United when they sack a manager. Their former player was caretaker after Jose Mourinho received his special P45 in 2018, and when Ole Gunnar Solskjær faced the same fate in 2021. While he did not manage any games after Mourinho, post-Solskjær, Carrick defeated Unai Emery’s Villarreal, drew with Thomas Tuchel’s Chelsea, and beat Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal.
After failing to be promoted from caretaker to interim — Ralf Rangnick got the job, a decision as idiosyncratic as the choice — Carrick went off to become head coach of Middlesbrough in the Championship. In three seasons, he transformed them from relegation candidates into a team with expectations of promotion back to the Premier League. Having fallen just short of achieving that, he was sacked last July.
At the Riverside and during his previous spell at the OT, Carrick employed a 4-2-3-1 formation that morphed into a 3-2-5 in possession and a 4-4-2 midblock when out of possession. There is nothing groundbreaking in that; a zillion English clubs play that way. Carrick’s twist was to use one of his full-backs, making late runs and early crosses, as the fifth attacker.
On Teeside, he had only one player well suited to the role, and that player was on loan for one season. In the lee of the Manchester Ship Canal, he has one for each side in Amad Diallo and Patrick Dorgu, plus wide forwards in Brian Mbueno, Matheus Cunha and Mason Mount, who are comfortable both dropping deep and cutting inside, leaving the flanks open for the late overlap and fast cross.
In last weekend’s victory over City, it was hard to see that as a core principle of Carrick’s tactics. While he abandoned Amorim’s 3-4-2-1 for a back four with two defensive midfielders in front — the 4-2 element of a 4-2-3-1 — Carrick selected an attacking formation more akin to a 4 than a 3-1 to target the Achilles heel of Pep’s new pressing system.
Pep has his entire team shift to the side where the ball is to create pressing overloads. Coupled with City’s usual high defensive line, this leaves large uncovered spaces on the opposite wing. Carrick had his players firing long diagonal cross-field passes into those vacant areas whenever possible, for whoever was free to chase down and head towards goal or deliver a cutback.
With City having 68% of possession and United defending with more conviction than they could muster under Amorim, time and time again, Man U looked to counterattack using a long pass out wide. Time and time again, they found one of their quick, powerful runners, the intentionally selected Amad, Mbuemo and Dorgu, with, as they say, acres of grass in front of them.
Carrick, who was a tactically astute player — Louis van Gaal, when his manager at United called him a coach in the game — will know that Arteta will have studied how United dismantled City. He will need to do something different on Sunday. ‘We have got our ideas on what needs to be done and how we need to get there’, he said in his pre-match press conference, slipping effortlessly into manager obfuscation mode. Back to his tried-and-trusted basics, I would expect.
The opposition
The 23-year-old Belgian, Senne Lammens, bought from Royal Antwerp in the summer for €21 million, will be glove-buttling. Dare I say it, he looks an uncommonly sensible piece of transfer business by United’s recent ker-ching standards.
Against City, Carrick replaced the young players Amorim had included in his back three, such as Leny Yoro, 20, and Ayden Heaven, 19 and formerly of this parish, and moved 23-year-old Amad from right back to his natural position as a winger. In their place, was an old-school back four comprising Harry Maguire and Lisandro Martínez at centre-back and Luke Shaw and Diogo Dalot at full-back.
With the two Englishmen on the wrong side of 30, this is not a long-term solution. However, for now, especially with Matthijs de Ligt injured, it provides Carrick with a more experienced defence than the one that had the seventh-worst record in the league under Amorim. Nonetheless, it remains vulnerable, and I would expect de Ligt and Yoro to be starting by the end of the season.
If Carrick were sure to be still in post next season — Man U’s omniscient higher-ups had said he will not, regardless, although the gentlemen of the turf don’t believe them; Carrick is second favourite to be the permanent appointment — I would also expect Dorgu and Amad to be groomed as the full-backs. However, Shaw will probably play most of the games this season at left back, as he will be a better third centre-back than Dorgu when United shifts into their 3-2-5.
Unless Carrick replaces Dalot or the Moroccan Noussair Mazraoui, now back from AFCON, with Amad at right back, he will have to decide which of United’s expensively bought forwards — Mbuemo, Matheus Cunha, Benjamin Šeško and, once he returns to fitness, Joshua Zirkzee — will warm the bench so he can fit in the 23-year-old Ivory Coast international.
Carrick has also reinstated the out-of-favour Kobbie Mainoo in the pivot alongside Casemiro, who, at 33 and £350,000 a week, is not being retained for next season. Que surpresa!
Some believe the next England team should be built around Mainoo’s elite press resistance and ball-carrying skills. However, Amorim preferred Bruno Fernandes in the deep-lying playmaker role, where Mainoo could have fitted into his system. Perhaps Amorim thought nobbiness was necessary for that Paul Scholes-like role. Still, Mainoo would have left this transfer window if Amorim had not departed first.
Deploying the best players in their best positions is usually a reliable fallback for any manager. Against Man City, Carrick played Fernandes as a left-sided 10, where he likes to play. The higher up the field he is, the more threatening the Portuguese becomes to opposing defences.
Fernandes and Mbuemo shared the false-nine duties of dropping out of the front four to receive the ball and pull a City centre half with them, creating more vacant space in behind. Saliba, who has been frequently appearing near the edge of opposition penalty areas lately, needs to be wary of being suckered into that trap.
I expect Fernandes and Mbuemo to reprise their City roles on Sunday, with Cunha, Šeško and, let us not forget him, Mason Mount, coming off the expensively warmed bench when United are, hopefully, chasing the game.
The Arsenal
Carrick will have his team as ‘up’ for a game against us, as it was for the City derby. Thus, I expect Arteta to start his strongest available XI, although I always do, and whether that includes Calafiori and Hincapié is anyone’s guess. Mine is that Calafiori is fit, but not Hincapié. If neither is fit, then presumably Benny Blanco comes in at right back and Timber shifts to the left rather than MLS start.
Raya
Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori
Ødegaard, Zubimendi, Rice
Saka, Gyökeres, Trossard
Sunday’s is yet another must-win game, not least because Neville, Keane and company will be even more insufferable if we don’t. It will be a fierce scrap; these games have previous in that regard. We’ll also have to move the ball around quickly to negate our visitor’s newfound defensive industry, while cutting off the supply lines to what is a potentially potent attack.
Do all that, and, with the home support behind the team, we can take it 2-0 to secure our first clean-sheet double over the Red Mancs since 1901-02.
Enjoy the game, ‘holics, near and far.
Ethan scores for Marseille after 13 mins.
Now to read your preview Ned.
Cheers
A very fine preview that leaves me a little less nervous than usual, Ned. Having been quite impressed by Manu efforts last weekend I anticipate a tough game. I like your positivity and, assuming the team follows your prescription for success, I’ll be delighted with a 2-0 home win.
It’s Rabbie Burns time so I’ll be driving south from north of the wall. Being home by kick-off may prove to be a challenge.
Cheers Ned. That preview made me realise those Mancs actually have some decent players and it’s incredible that they’ve been so shit lately.
Still, we are better than them and so hopefully will prevail.
Don’t think any match against them is ever easy, so a battling 2-0 would be just the ticket.
Hopefully a good one for what will be my first match in three months!
(Not sure that has happened outside of COVID since the move to the new Stadium :-O)
Good preview, thanks.
I would think that if that land barge Maguire is starting, we might be inclined to counter with Jesus? Expect Lisandro Martinez to get a Yellow and don’t give Bruno any opportunities to take a free 25 yards out.
@ Sancho Panza, good catch on Ethan getting on the score sheet. Wonderful that di Zerbi started him and Ethan hit the ground running. Great experience for the lad.
Thanks Ned for that fine and informative preview. It’s a damn shame that Amorim isn’t still confusing the Manc players and rendering them fragile defensively and erratic offensively. They appeared transformed into a Fergie tribute act by Carrick’s approach when they derailed the Creative Accountants with rapid breakaways. Good though that result was for us, the performance was a bit chilling. It gave me a horrible flashback to Ronaldo, Rooney et al in 2009. I fervently hope that Carrick has managed to thoroughly confuse them with a full week of training in Fergie’s methods.
I never feel confident about this fixture – a consequence of watching multiple games in which we underperformed against Manure sides that really should have been thrashed. Hopefully those days are gone. I hope that our superb performance against Internazionale in midweek and the rest for several key players gives us the confidence and fitness to encourage us to move the ball swiftly, take the game to the Mancs and dominate them utterly. And I hope that Mikel has a fiendish plan to neutralise their attacks. I pray for victory.
Having been praised by multiple people as the best side in the world , following the impressive performance in Milan we have a battle on our hands tomorrow. United have been underperforming for years but have some quality personnel and others who are not good enough to wear the shirt .
We’ve won this game over the last few years and I expect us to do so again. I expect our side to be similar to the team outlined in Ned’s excellent preview . I think Gyökeres will start but Jesus might do the damage . It’s going to be a fiercely contested game but one the best side in the world can take in their stride.
Thanks Ned, and COYG. It’s three massive points to clutch and hold so let’s clutch and hold them, much as they will clutch and hold us on corners and the like.
Thanks Ned, as tactically astute as Carrick! Excellent preview
of a potentially tricky game.
I read an interesting article by a Middlesboro supporter
who said that Carrick had done well initially to change the
atmosphere but later on had been bafflingly inflexible when things
started to go wrong in the second season. He was liked but
it was the right decision to let him go or so the supporter
thought anyway – I suppose Middlesboro’s
current position partly supports that argument.
Great start for Ethan as they roll over the Ligue Un
contenders Lens 3-1 in his first game. The only tiny
grey cloud being that it meant PSG are top (hiss,boo)
In honour of Ethan I think I will go for 3-1 to The Arsenal
today. We should be able to get at a side with Casemiro protecting
Mqguire and Martinez in the centre. Also Saka and whoever starts
at right back should get joy out of attacking Tubby’s flank.
Fantastic preview Ned, with surgically precise tactical and personnel dissection of the opposition. Thank you!
To me they are and will always be the old enemy. As Bath and others mentioned, way too many times we have outplayed them but missed out on the results. For reasons footballing and extraneous. Even when we started a superior and more in-form eleven, we never seem to quite pulverize them the way we ought to.
They are on a high, have more days of rest, and would naturally try to start on the front foot to quiet the crowd. We need to hold our nerves, play our game (for I believe tactically Mikel and his team will have the answers worked out), and mercilessly expose and exploit the pockets of unguarded space and ounces of self-doubt they would be invariably carrying.
Your starting eleven is likelier, but I would like to see a front-line with more pace and better pressing to start with. Hopefully Calafiori is back to full fitness.
Raya
Timber-Saliba-Gabriel-Calafiori
Ødegaard-Zubimendi-Rice
Saka-Jesus-Martinelli
That 2-0 home win would do nicely. Would love to see us outplay, outwit and out-maneuver them by dominating the match.
Come on Arsenal!
Thanks Ned
My memories of Utd at Highbury feature the likes of Best, Charlton, Law etc. – that was always something to worry about.
This current lot? Not so much.
Another statement win is required after the two league draws so I’m going for 3-0.
UTA
Ned, more thanks for yet another well researched and beautifully written preview. Man Utd have failed to equal the sum of their parts for a long time. May that continue for many caretakers, interims and full time failures to come. Actually, I’m not feeling too good thinking about Maguire and Shaw’s parts, so I’ll wish us a hard fought 3-1 and go have a bit of a lie down.
Come on you Reddsss !
Nice one Ned. Excellent preview. Let’s hope the game goes our way too.
Well said everyone who’s commented on Ethan’s start at at Marseille. Long may it continue!
Raya
Timber, Gabriel, Saliba, Hincapie
Rice, Zubimendi, Odegaard
Saka, Trossard, Jesus.
Bench: Arrizabalaga, Mosquera, White, Lewis-Skelly, Merino, Eze, Martinelli, Madueke, Gyokeres.
Thanks for the kind words, all.
Jesus and Hincapié start. Yet again, I have been outwitted by Arteta over the selection. However, very happy to see Hincapié is fit to start. We shall need his warrior qualities.
Thanks Ned for.this very fine preview.
I hate Manure. They will be pumped up against us.
But it’s good to see such a strong lineup.
COYG
Only one team in that half………until we gave them that gift.
Fans need to get right behind our guys in the second half…..sounded a bit downbeat after the game.
Need some Mikel magic in the half time talk. Manure here for the taking.
Need to start putting this team under pressure, Arsenal.
we are playing poorly. gotta come up with a piece of magic.
Classic time wasting……..costing us 30 secs every time……..
Saka invisible on the left which says a lot about the way we play
4/10 max for everyone.
Super disappointing. MU XG 0.45 and they score 3. Bright start, individual howler for a gift and then completely flat. Two brilliant finishes but we can’t have performances like that (and Lpool) if we’re going to be champions. No positives to take from that one. Hopefully Mikel can use the pain to inspire………..
Bath @5, and so it came to pass. After their City game, I had similar concerns, and this one was set up beautifully for them and the media.
I’m already receiving bottles……….
My username shows I’m not exactly Mr Sunshine but I genuinely think we threw away the title today, Arteta may be many things but tactically astute is not one of them, his stubbornness or blindness to his and the teams flaws has and will continue to undo us.
If ever there was a game to win ugly, or at least not lose, that was it. The writing seemed to be on the wall from the moment we gifted them the equaliser. Flat and uncharacteristically sloppy performance. Disappointing all round. MØ8 tends to get pulled early a lot, but I wonder if it isn’t worth the gamble to keep him on, as he is the one player who can produce the little bit of magic needed to conjure up a goal, even when he is having an average game. And what’s with us not letting opposition players shoot, but when we do, they produce only world-class shots?
MØ8’s early pulls are very much a feature of this season, Ned. (I shoot from the hip on dat as you know, the monks may well see things differently 🙂 I never like to see him coming off but he has by his own high standards been lightweight in several of our recent games. Mike McDonald postulated during the week that he has “Norway in the World Cup” on his mind and fears serious injury – difficult to believe imho. Eze’s introduction did little to change our ability to create danger and there were times when he reduced the game to walking pace.
Next League game is massive.
>>>>>>>