And so to the Stadium of Stone for the second leg of our Champions League Round of 16 tie against Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Few will disagree that Die Werkself proved to be an unexpected handful in the first leg. Nonetheless, Kai Havertz’s 89th-minute penalty at his old stomping ground left things even-steven at 1-1.
The mood from the Leverkusen camp is that they were close to pulling off ‘a big coup’ last week, and that they can exploit the pressure on us to win at the Ems. They will treat the game like a cup final.
Kasper Hjulmand
Leverkusen’s Danish gaffer, Kasper Hjulmand, got an early start in coaching after injury cut short his playing career at 26. His first appointment was at Lyngby before leading Nordsjælland to its first Danish league title in 2011-12. This led to him being hired as Thomas Tuchel’s successor at Mainz in the Bundesliga while still in his early thirties. However, it didn’t work out, and he lasted less than a year.
After a spell back at Nordsjælland, he was appointed national team manager. He led Denmark to the semi-finals of the 2020 Euros, the 2022 World Cup finals in Qatar and then to the 2024 Euros, where Denmark was eliminated in the first knockout round, at which point he resigned.
He returned to club management last September after Leverkusen booted out Xabi Alonso’s successor, Erik ten Hag, after just three games, the Dutchman having created a toxic atmosphere at the club. Once dipped in the Old Toilet, there is something that can never be shaken off.
Alonso’s double-winning team was broken up with the sales of its key players, Florian Wirtz, Jeremie Frimpong, Jonathan Tah and Granit Xhaka, plus the loan of Piero Hincapié to us. With the €165 million trousered from Liverpool for Wirtz and Frimpong, Leverkusen brought in 18 new players last summer.
With the exception of three goalkeepers, the veteran defender Lucas Vázquez, picked up from Real Madrid on a free, and 25-year-old French international Loïc Badé, acquired from Sevilla for €25 million, all were under 23. Hjulmand’s task has been to pick up the pieces left by ten Hag’s departure and meld young talent not of his choosing into a team.
The Dane prefers to set up in a 3-4-2-1, as did Alonso, although he started with a 4-2-2-2 in a few recent league matches before reverting to 3-4-2-1 against us last week and against Bayern Munich in the league on Saturday.
He instructs his team to defend aggressively and to control the tempo of the game through possession. Leverkusen ranks second in the Bundesliga this season for tackles won, and only Bayern Munich surpasses it for share of possession, passes and successful passes. Hjulmand also concentrates heavily on set-pieces. We observed all of these tactical traits in the first leg.
The opposition
Mark Flekken, acquired from Brentford in the summer for €12 million, would be the first-choice glove butler, but he damaged his knee ligaments in January. He is back in training, but Janis Blaswich, who is 34 and has spent much of his career on a bench or playing in lower leagues, will likely continue to deputise. He has kept eight clean sheets in 16 games, but had VAR to thank at the weekend for a couple of errors not proving more costly.
With the lanky Badé also out due to a hamstring injury sustained in February, the back three is likely to consist of the uncompromising club captain Robert Andrich, a 19-cap Germany international who scored the goal in the first leg, Jarell Quansah, bought from Liverpool in the summer for €35 million (reportedly the deal includes an €80 million buy-back clause that the Scousers are considering triggering), and Edmond Tapsoba, a 60-cap Burkina Faso international who came through the ranks of the Portuguese club Vitória Guimarães.
Aleix García, who has made two starts in 15 call-ups for Spain and was at Manchester City before being released on a free in 2020, will anchor the midfield alongside Argentina World Cup winner Exequiel Palacios. The Argentine provides the muscle and the Spaniard the passes.
Palacios’s younger compatriot, Equi Fernández, another summer signing, from Al-Qadsiah in the Saudi Pro League, is an option from the bench. Malik Tillman, a German-born US international who came through Bayern Munich’s youth ranks and was Leverkusen’s joint most expensive summer signing, at €35 million from PSV, started the season in the double pivot alongside Garcia, but Hjulmand has since moved him upfield.
Alejandro Grimaldo, who impressed in the first leg and is a product of Barcelona’s La Masia, should be at left wing-back after missing the weekend league game against Bayern Munich through suspension. He plays a versatile role, dropping into a traditional left-back position when Leverkusen lose possession but functioning more like a ten when they have the ball. He is also a dangerous set-piece taker.
Grimaldo’s return will likely mean that the mercurial Ernest Poku, a 22-year-old with 21 Netherlands U-21 caps and who arrived from AZ Alkmaar in the summer, will revert to the right flank, and 18-year-old Montrell Culbreath, the highly regarded Germany U-19 international who has come up through Leverkusen’s youth ranks, will drop to the bench.
Nathan Tella, who played for our U-18s a decade back, was excluded from Leverkusen’s nominated CL squad because of long-term injury, as was fellow winger, the Morocco international Eliesse Ben Seghir, bought from Monaco in the summer for €32 million.
Yet, Hjulmand still has plenty of attacking talent at his disposal. Preeminent among it is Ibrahim Maza. The 20-year-old Algeria international playmaker was bought from Hertha Berlin in the summer for €12 million. Atlético Madrid is reportedly offering triple that to take him to the Metropolitano this summer.
Alongside him will likely be Tillman, reprising the attacking midfield partnership Hjulmund employed in the first leg. The Dane can also call on 33-year-old Jonas Hoffman, a holdover from Alonso’s double-winning squad, who had a few call-ups to the Germany national team in the early 2020s. The 29-year-old Frenchman Martin Terrier, another Alonso-era winger, is also available, having recovered from a kick on the ankle that earned Bayern’s Nicholas Jackson a red card on Saturday.
Leading the attack will be either Patrik Schick, the Czech international who is Leverkusen’s leading goalscorer this season with 13 in all competitions despite an injury-interrupted campaign, or Christian Kofane, the 19-year-old Cameroon international who gave Saliba and Gabriel some grief in the first leg.
Leverkusen unearthed Kofane at Albacete in La Liga 2. They will surely recover the €5 million they paid for him, and more. The chance for a significant return from Schick is diminishing. Many of Europe’s top clubs, including ours, have reportedly considered him since he joined from Roma in 2020. However, he turned 30 in January, and the big-money interest is waning.
Our visitors come into Tuesday’s game after a chaotic 1-1 draw at home to Bayern Munich on Saturday. Vincent Kompany’s league leaders had two players sent off, and two goals disallowed by VAR for handball, yet still equalised before what Leverkusen thought was a stoppage-time winner was ruled out by VAR for a narrow offside. The fact that Bayern’s Luiz Diaz was sent off after receiving a questionable second yellow for diving and won the man of the match award in a game where either side could have won or lost 4-1 tells you everything you need to know.
The draw was Leverkusen’s fifth in their past six matches, but they haven’t lost since being beaten by Union Berlin in the Bundesliga in mid-February. They sit sixth in the Bundesliga, 22 points behind Bayern but seven clear of Eintracht Frankfurt in seventh.
The Arsenal
Jurriën Timber has joined Mikel Merino and Martin Ødegaard off-games, but Leandro Trossard is available again. So is Ben White. Cristhian Mosquera replacing Timber on Saturday suggests that Benny Blanco isn’t yet match-fit enough to start. I suspect Calafiori will retain his starting place, with Hincapié saved for closing out duty.
Havertz or Viktor Gyökeres up front is the other question. There will also be a clamour to start Max Dowman after his magical moments against Everton. I expect Arteta to start his tried-and-trusted seniors.
Raya
Mosquera, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori
Zubimendi, Rice,
Saka, Eze, Martinelli
Gyökeres
The game is, self-evidently, a must-win: the loser goes home.
Bayern’s scouting notes for last Saturday’s game (no stone left unturned here at Castle Ned!) said that Leverkusen possessed enough quality to cause any opponent problems but has shaky periods, and the contest would come down to which team could bring their strengths to bear more effectively. The same will be true on Tuesday evening.
Yet, if we control the game and dictate the tempo, we should be able to secure a 2-0 win to progress to a quarter-final against either Bodo/Glimt or Sporting.
Enjoy the game, ‘holics, near and far.
Thanks, Ned, for the usual comprehensive and very readable analysis of our opposition – enough to worry me that they have enough quality to make life very difficult for us. BtM will be quaking in his boots. However, they are sixth in the Bundesliga at the end of the day and we have a bit of quality ourselves.
I have been lucky enough to acquire Bath’s ticket in the North Bank for this one – my third trip to the NHOF this season.
There will doubtless be great clamour to see young Max on the pitch again. I wouldn’t expect him to start. At this stage of his physical development I would have thought the 20-25 minute cameos offer him better protection, but what do I know ? Mikel Arteta sees him every day and seems to be handling his introduction perfectly.
Is a 3-0 win while saving energy for a Cup Final at the weekend too much to ask for ? Well, let’s hope for one anyway. Come on you Reddsss !
Many thanks Ned, both for an outstanding preview and for sending the monks behind enemy lines to retrieve Bayern’s scouting notes on our opponents. Time will tell how important that mission proves to be, but please God let’s blow the Hessians out of the water, or give us good luck with our penalties to send us through (or both)!
The GHF Predictathon leaderboard for Matchweek 30 has been posted. A new leader, an escape from the relegation zone and montagnes russes — the Predictathon has it all! You know where to find it…
Thanks Ned, a very thorough run down
and a predicatathon update, much
appreciated as always.
Any win will do of course, a clean sheet,
several goals and no injuries would be best
No idea who MA will pick in several positions
but I would start Ben White instead of Mosquera,
Leo not Gabi M, Kai instead of VG up front.
I suspect your team will be closer to the actual
starting XI. A bench with Noni, Max, Gabis M & J,
and VG should give us myriad attacking options.
Also finally we should get at Aldrich.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2026/mar/16/serie-a-italy-como-roma-cesc-fabregas-gian-piero-gasperini
Cesc making waves, I wouldn’t in all
honesty want him back but I imagine
many would
Cheers, Ned & The Monks (great band name, that). Trev’s first sentence cover my feelings. I was thinking we’d be fine, then remembered the first match, and you listing their talent had me reach the same worry.
Enjoy the match, Trev and other goers!
I suspect I might be going through some (emotional) montagnes russes also during the match…(thanks for the Predictathon update as always).
Great work, Ned. If I were Arteta – a top rank manager with a steely analytical mind – which as I any clarification were needed I am not, I would throw in a curveball and start Jesus. His ability to come away from defenders into midfield to add another body might just create some nerves and uncertainty in their defence. Last week from my position on the sidelines it appeared that Leverkusen were employing a triple marking system on Saka and Martinelli, knowing full well that Gyokeres is a fairly central box striker and relatively static. If they have to think about following Jesus, or not, it might free up some space wide and allow opportunity for crosses to late runners.
Cheers Ollie !
And thanks, Ned for another swift update.
Top preview, Ned. As a result of the monks’ detailed research on the opposition, I fear I may join BtM and Trev in viewing this match with some trepidation. Before the weekend, I felt that the three games this week would have a huge impact on our season. The first hurdle was successfully, if belatedly, vaulted. Tonight, we must leap the second hurdle. The opposition proved obstinate last week and to beat them tonight we must all be on our game, fans included, and give 100%. It’s certainly going to be tough, for players and fans, but an early breakthrough (when did we last achieve that?) would change the outlook and game completely.
I certainly like CER’s suggestion of starting with a mobile central attacker rather than Gyökeres to discourage the doubling and tripling up against our wingers, but I would choose Havertz over Jesus. Otherwise, I agree with your suggested team. 2-0 to the good guys would be delightful.
Fine preview Ned. Your suggested side looks very likely. I think we are a bit strapped for midfield options . I think he will start Gyokeres but CER’s idea is worth considering . Jesus tends to find European football easier than domestic stuff. Havertz might replace Eze but I think Eze is in decent form and is a difference maker.
Max? I’m sure we will see him at some stage . He will be an impact sub this season and I expect some impact ! I think we will overpower this lot but we must beware their counter-attacks . 2-0 to the Gunners
Thanks, all, for the kind words. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Arteta springing a selection surprise to exploit a weakness in Leverkusen’s set-up that he thinks he has spotted. Or he might just tweak how his usual starters play and switch to plans B or C, using subs, if necessary. I hope Hjulmand is as much in the dark as we are.
We, in the dark Ned? What with the monks being hard at work on their illuminating manuscripts I would have thought there could be very little chance of such a thing. COYG and Mikel’s secret plan.
A preview filled with fine and nuanced details articulated in fine and nuanced prose. Thanks Ned (and the monks)! And thank you GSD for the tone-perfect recapitulation of the euphoric win against Everton!
A somewhat unique aspect of Bayer’s performance last week was their willingness and self-confidence to play through the middle of the pitch. In Martin’s absence they correctly guessed that we would be sub-par in counterpressing and played well through the lines. Zubimendi is probably running at 75% of his level and wasn’t as flawless in positioning himself and covering the passing lanes. I think they will try this again and we may want to plan for it. Having Rice sitting deep at traditional #6 and have two highly technical midfielders on the ball ahead of him, midfielders who can keep possession in tight spaces, maybe one way of countering. And/or starting with Calafiori who adds an extra man in the midfield and rather good at carrying the ball through the left channels and finding himself in half-spaces.
Another noticeable thing was that we didn’t at all exploit the pressure on Andrich after Gyökeres gave him early troubles and the Bayer captain got a very early yellow card. Trying to find Viktor on his runs would keep their defense drawn in centrally, opening up spaces for our wingers.
In Timber’s absence ideally speaking White should start a match of this importance, his tactical intelligence and attacking output offering extra edge. I guess he still hasn’t completely recovered physically if Mosquera is being preferred. Mosquera has been superb — give or take a mistake or two — but this would ideally be a match for White.
This would be my preferred starting eleven that would help us assert complete control on and off the ball while maintaining unpredictability in the final third.
Raya
White-Saliba-Gabriel-Calafiori
Saka-Zubimendi-Rice
Madueke-Gyökeres-Eze
The fact that Ricky is excellent at both moving outside and inside of his winger would help Eze to cut in and create opportunities on his right, allowing him to take risks with Declan protecting against a break. Similarly, I really liked the little we saw of Saka playing centrally. Much more difficult to double mark him and if they try that opens up space for Madueke to run into. Leo, Kai, Martinelli, Jesus et al. as “finishers.” Let’s hope that we don’t have to rely on the youngest member of the squad to bail us out. 🙂
But likely Mikel will not make such key changes for an occasion like that and play the team you predicted, expecting that the team should be able to impose themselves and create enough chances.
Come on Arsenal!
Dr. F@14: Thank you for the generous words and even more for a thoughtful contribution.
I agree with you that a 100% fit White starts over Mosquera, but I doubt he is sufficiently match fit. I also like your idea of playing Saka centrally. Freed from the shackles of being double or triple-teamed, he had more impact there after Dowman came on on Saturday. Bayern Munich, even with ten and then nine men, were getting in behind Leverkusen’s back line a lot last weekend. That is something we need to exploit. Madueke might be the man to do it. We will also need to keep their left wing back, Grimaldo, pinned back so he cannot cause more of those asymmetric central overload problems you identify.
Zubimendi clearly needs a rest. He has never played a season without a winter break before, and that is showing now. Would Saka and Eze playing in front of Rice as a single pivot be too adventurous for a game like this?
Raya
White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie
Zubimendi, Rice, Eze
Saka, Trossard
Gyokeres.
Bench: Arrizabalaga, Ranson, Mosquera, Jesus, Martinelli, Norgaard, Madueke, Havertz, Calafiori, Lewis-Skelly, Dowman
MA’s secret plan is stick with Plan A, it’s a strong team with a fistful of attacking options on the bench
Cheers Ned!
UP THE ARSE!
Thanks Ned ( and the monks ) for another superb preview – full of interest.
Not in the least surprised that MA is putting out his strongest team – it is a must win match – not been many of them of late 😉. There is a good selection of attacking prowess on the bench when needed.
The opposition put on a top show at their gaff, hopefully they won’t be so effective away from home. Just win boys!
COYRRR
Good to see you in, Esso.
Cheers, Uply. Leverkusen is starting the same eleven as last week. Here’s trusting lightening doesn’t strike twice.
It’s important that we move the ball quickly through midfield and into threatening positions tonight. This lot are very well organised and our wingers need to get the ball before they have to face 3 or 4 defenders. We also need to feed Gyökeres’ runs. Do that and we win. Ponderous deliberate build ups are not our friend tonight.
COYGs
Belter of a goal from Eze and we deserve the lead.
Let’s hope for a second early 2nd half and no drama
In other news, it won’t be Bodø if we do get through.
Our big week has started off well. Eze (and co.) does it second half.
Worked hard in that half, lots of shots on target forcing some great saves then a goal of beauty. Now let’s finish this!!
Just about to say we’re a bit passive when we get forward, put a bit of pressure
and Rice cracks home 2-0
Ben, Leo and Zubi off.
Eze too for a Kai.
All seems sensible considering the weekend.
Er….no Kai but appreciate the effort 😂
Did you know? We got him half price!
We got him half price and he doesn’t half mind scoring goals in the Champions League
We controlled the game, dictated the tempo, and secured a 2-0 win. 🙂
wot Ned said @30
Bar one good Raya save we didn’t give them much all night.
Good goals, everyone played fine, good subs and on we go.
Nice to see the lesser spotted MLS at the end there too.
Superb performance. Peppered their goal and their keeper made some great saves.
Two belters to beat a top goalkeeper.
Deserved victory
Heroes all.
Onward.
Now to stuff Cheaty.
All very calm and serene at the Emirates. It’s all looking very good.
Happy St Patrick’s Day everyone
We can hear the celestial celebrations here
God bless David Faber
And happy St Pat’s to you and yours, Brendan. It’s good to see you dropping into this fine hostelry.
Yer Da and ‘Holic will be having some brilliant craic on this particular day with this spectacular result. I expect even Declan Rice may be having a fly dram!
Good to see you in, Brendan. Happy St. Pat’s Day to you, the family and, of course, cba looking down with a celestial MOO!
We just strangled the life out of Leverkusen.
You can fool Arteta once, but not twice.
And it’s good that City won’t be buoyed for Sunday by a miraculous comeback against Madrid.
>>>>>>>