(Trust me. We’ll get there, together.)
“At the Arsenal match, I am told by someone who was there, a British and a Russian player came to blows and the crowd booed the referee…I noted with interest, as an instance of the vicious passions that football provokes, that the sporting correspondent of the Russophile News Chronicle took the anti-Russian line and maintained that Arsenal was not an all-England team.”—George Orwell, The Sporting Spirit. Tribune, 468, 10-11 (1945) available at, https://www.orwellfoundation.com/the-orwell-foundation/orwell/essays-and-other-works/the-sporting-spirit/). (Note, we’ve been taking pelters from the media for a very long time. 😊 )
During my research for this preview, I came across George Orwell’s account of a 1945 exhibition football match between Dynamo Moscow and Arsenal played under “adverse” weather conditions (pea-soup fog) at White Heart Lane. Writing for that venerable Labour weekly, the Tribune, Orwell used the contentious sporting event (Dynamo pipped Arsenal 3-4 in a match featuring a 12-man Dynamo, playing spectators, and sending-offs) as a backdrop for a more damning assessment of sport as a source of enmity which could erode international goodwill. Going so far as to conclude that “[S]erious sport has nothing to do with fair play,” he concluded that serious sport is “war minus the shooting.” Although I disagree with Orwell’s conclusion, I fully understand how the horrors of the recently-concluded World War informed his sensitivities regarding nationalism, and I also am very much persuaded by his structural arguments that a foundational element of sport’s appeal (especially competitive team sport) is tribalistic ritualism.
Even without Orwell’s more darkly contemptuous criticism and conclusions, competitive sport as a ritualistic proxy for combat is a compelling proposition. Teams and individual players with their various ties of class and kinship make readily useful avatars for polarization and have done so for millennia. Sporting competition, where participants consent to the suzerainty of obscure rules and abstractions in the service of creating a framework for a mutual contest of wills, provides a physical and psychic venue where sides can “battle” without wanton violence (unless Stoke-on-Trent is involved). The psychic and physiological effects of sporting outcomes on supporters, let alone competitors themselves, are well documented. The National Institutes of Health compiled numerous studies (back when the NIH actually practiced science) documenting vicarious experiential fluctuations in fan testosterone and dopamine blood levels with concentrations increasing for fans of victorious teams. (Bernhardt, et al, Physiol Behav. (1998) available at, https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9811365/). Numerous cultures across the ages have utilized competitive sport as a kayfabian stand-in for combat from the Mesoamerican ballgame (Ulama) to the Greek Olympic games to Mongol wrestling to Han Dynastic football to Roman gladiatorial competition to modern professional iterations. All this preamble is basically a lot of words to say that my self-serving interest in analogizing competitive sport and warfare is not a prima facie absurdity.
If you accept the premise that competitive sport and warfare analogies can yield fruitful discussions, you can travel down many intellectually-stimulating rabbit trails. For example, I have long considered drafting an article investigating the flexibility of this Arteta-led Arsenal analogizing it to a combined-arms army within the analytical framework of a (very) rudimentary melee-combat army classification system (heavy-infantry centric, combined arms, cavalry centric). Mercifully, this preview is not that article. However, there is a particular historical engagement that rhymes well with the occasion that brings you to the bar today…
In late summer of 48 BCE, an ambitious Gaius Julius Caesar was on the ropes and, quite literally, fighting for his life. Only months earlier, he had openly defied the Roman Senate by crossing the Rubicon under arms. His political, military, and financial alliance with the other two most powerful men in the Republic had dissolved. His daughter, Julia, had recently died in childbirth, and, now, as rebel and enemy of the Republic, Caesar found himself bottled-up in central Greece, short on money and supplies, facing a larger Roman consular army led by one of the most decorated generals in the Republic’s history…his former ally and former son-in-law, Gnaeus Pompeius Magnus. Although the details of that battle, interesting as they may be, are unnecessary for this preview, it should could as no surprise to you, my dear reader, that for purposes of this particular analogy when Arsenal meet Manchester €115y at Wembley Stadium for the Carabao Cup Final, Arteta is Caesar and Pep Guardiola is Pompey.
This comparison works on several levels. Firstly, in the civil contest between Caesar and the Republican Legions under Pompey, Pompey was the elder statesman. He had the more storied military career with numerous campaign victories in Spain and Asia Minor. Pep has won titles in Spain, Germany, and England, and, through the alleged financial perfidy of the Abu Dhabi United Group, he has created a football juggernaut that has won the Premier League six times in the last seven seasons. Given that Arteta was quite literally Guardiola’s lieutenant at €115y, Pep is definitely the senior manager in this contest. Secondly, although Pompey’s army outnumbered Caesar’s, the latter’s troops were hardened veterans of higher quality than Pompey’s new recruits. We need not waste many lines of copy here detailing the egregious and rule-breaking spending €115y has employed over the past decade, but just this January, they led the Premier League in spending approximately £85M to recruit Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guehi. Arsenal continues to be outspent, but for this final we have assembled a squad of players whose quality from top to bottom arguably surpasses €115y’s (more on this anon). The Gunners are also battle-tested. What the “second-again” trope misses is the fact that, since the 2023-24 Premier League season, no team has accumulated more total points than Arsenal (233). Finally, as the two armies arrayed for battle, Caesar’s legions, roused by his rhetoric and their very real logistical need to fight a pitched battle, had a burning martial spirit; whereas, Pompey, goaded into battle by his Senate allies when he preferred to starve Caesar into submission, was resigned to fight, and his army fought like it.
On Sunday, a confident Arsenal, having lost just three matches in all competitions this season and undefeated since January 25th, will face a demoralized €115y that was ignominiously dumped out of the UEFA Champions League Round of Sixteen by Real Madrid. On Sunday, a younger, tactically-adept Mikel Arteta will lead his team of physically stronger and emotionally hungrier players against an older, yet wily, Pep Guardiola who manages a team whose reputation may belie its current potency.
The Opposition
Let me dispense with any notions of objectivity from the outset. I despise everything about Manchester €115y. From their no-mark, obtusely cynical, plastic fanbase to their, alleged, systematic financial rule breaking, €115y (and their other fellow petrostate/oligarch-owned Premier League clubs) are the standard-bearers for all that is wrong with modern sport. I revel in any setback for that odious lot from the Eastlands.
However, the team we will face on Sunday remains a dangerous opponent. €115y’s shrewd January acquisition of Semenyo has returned significant dividends. In a team whose prolific goal-scorer has somewhat recently gone off the boil (my Fantasy Premier League sacrifice by captaining Haaland will hopefully continue its deleterious effects on Sunday and throughout May), Semenyo’s seven goals in sixteen appearances are the primary reason why Arsenal’s Premier League lead over €115y (having played one more game) is only nine points. Haaland has scored three Premier League goals since the New Year. Hopefully this rich vein of poor form will continue on Sunday. Jeremy “Count” Doku and Omar Marmoush return pace and tricky movement to a recently bereft strike force, but Semenyo is the key threat for me.
In midfield, Nico Gonzalez and Bernardo Silva, that cretinous chode, provide technical balance to an older and less physically imposing Rodri, but key new additions Rayan Cherki and Tijjani Reijnders offer offensive cunning. Given that Phil “laid-it-on-a-plate-for-Eze” Foden has been less productive of late, I would isolate and press Rodri (if €115y play him as a lone “6”) or, if €115y deploy Gonzalez and Rodri in a double pivot, go man-to-man and impose our physicality.
The €115y backline, however, may pose the greatest concern for Pep. Gvardiol is injured and Marc Guehi is ineligible, so Khusanov and Dias will likely feature as the center back pairing. I would expect Nathan Ake (instead of Ryan Ait-Nouri) to feature on their left side and Nunes on the right. We should be able to exploit Khusanov who, while rapid, is young and frequently positionally daft. If €115y do play Ait-Nouri, I would expect Saka to torture the poor sod. On our left, Leo’s guile, tenacity, and technical skill should keep Nunes well occupied. Finally, although Pep has publicly stated that James Trafford will stand in goal, I think it’s a clever ruse for the media. If Trafford starts and we rock his world, Pep has a handy excuse, but I expect to see Donnarumma between the sticks.
Regardless, €115y has weaknesses in midfield and defense. They have dropped four points in their last two Premier League matches. Given their recent soft underbelly, I have a sneaking suspicion that €115y will eschew the low block tactics they employed at the Emirates in favor of a more expeditious, attacking approach. Although I would welcome that tactic, €115y’s potent strike force warrants a disciplined, if aggressive posture.
The Arsenal XI
The Arsenal enters the hallowed Wembley ground riding an ebullient wave of positive results. We lead the Premier league table by nine points. We are successfully into the Champions League Quarter Finals off the back of a comprehensive victory over Bayer Leverkusen. We have advanced to the Emirates FA Cup Quarter Finals where we will face Championship side, Southampton. After Eze’s thunderbastard against Leverkusen and Max Dowman’s revelatory exploits against Everton, the team’s morale has never been higher. But, although the confidence and enthusiasm of players and supporters alike are at a zenith, we do have some personnel and selection challenges. As of Friday, Ødegaard and Timber were not yet confirmed as eligible. Merino remains sidelined due to foot surgery, and there is a twenty-man roster limit for the final so some big names will be left out of the squad. Arteta also has to decide whether Kepa or Raya will start in goal and how he will deploy his forwards. Will he start Kai and bring Gyökeres on in the second half to run at tiring defenders? No matter the decision, it will be vital to physically dominate €115y and give them no hope. Furthermore, I believe Big Vik is ready to step-up, so I think Mikel will go with:
Kepa
Timber — Saliba — Gabriel — Calafiori
Zubimendi — Rice
Saka — Eze —Trossard
Gyökeres
In addition to thinking that Arteta, as a man of his word, has promised the Carabao Cup matches to Kepa, I have also heard that Kepa has done the media appearances in advance of the Final. Also, Raya and his wife just welcomed their first son’s birth, so it feels like a Kepa game to me. I also remember the 2014 FA Cup where Fabianski started (Fabianski at Wembley his arms out wide…IYKYK), so there is historical precedent. I also have a gut feeling Timber will be ready for this match, but, if he isn’t fit, I would expect White to start with Mosquera to substitute on sixty minutes or so. Calafiori and Trossard pair well, and Eze…well, I just want him doing boss, Eze things on either side of the “D”. Hopefully, Saka will terrorize his left back taking early shots and feeding early channel runs to Gyökeres. Finally, I also have a feeling this match might just feature a Zubimendi moment. Watch this space.
No matter who starts, it will be vital to take shots early, often, and from distance.
The ‘Holic Pound
I expect a cagey initial thirty minutes. Like a heavyweight boxing match, when both fighters possess the power to land a knockout punch, early rounds are about finding a rhythm and not making a fatal mistake. But we can impose ourselves on the €115y midfield and use that platform to target Khusanov. Since January, €115y have shown a tendency to drop their physical levels in the second half. Shots, shots, shots. If we can take a lead into halftime, I like our chances, and I fancy the team to deliver a dominant performance, 3-0 to the Arsenal.
Although Pompey’s and Caesar’s actual motivational rhetoric has been lost to time, Caesar’s apocryphal closing words were, “[Tonight,] we will pitch our tents in that rampart, from where their troops come about to perish.” (Lucan’s Tale of Two Leaders: Rhetoric and Syntax Preceding the Battle of Pharsalus. Jones, available at, https://share.google/hv1Cjz1eay7eFhHGR). After the battle, Caesar’s surviving troops did, indeed, sleep in their defeated countrymen’s tents. The younger general had defeated his elder counterpart, and a new age was at hand. May Sunday’s results follow a similar, albeit less violent, theme, and lay the foundation for a new age of Arsenal footballing accomplishment.
Enjoy the game tomorrow fellow ‘Holics and Gooners. What did she wear?
Come on you Gunners!
MCMBD
Stirring stuff thanks LG!
MCMBD has never been truer
Your side looks about what I’d expect too
and 3-0 would be a very fitting score after the
last final against Cheaty.
Cheers Lonestar!
LG
An epic preview for a mega occasion
I’ve developed a chest infection which is likely to keep me away from my obstructed view ticket but my record at League Cup finals is not good . I can’t assess the game objectively.I think we are better than them this season and we have a wonderful coach and team . I hope we can clinch our first piece of silverware to upset all anti- Arsenal opinion and underline what a remarkable team we have built . Any win will do but I will suggest 2-0
That was a tour de force, Lonestar. Bravo. Or perhaps ‘gratulationes’ would be more apt. I will take your III-N in a heartbeat. (That is enough schoolboy Latin – Ed)
This really does feel like an epochal final in the sense that if we win, it will mark a changing of the guard.
Also, a belated thanks to TTG in the previous drinks for the link to the Liew article on the neighbours. It’s amazing that it is conceivable they will be playing derbies against Stevenage next season. Another reminder to celebrate how special what we have is.
TTG@3: Get well soon.
Thanks Lonestar for a preview of such encyclopedic breadth and bold sweeps of history. Bravo!
And thanks TTG for the nicely calibrated review of the Bayer win. It was a much stronger performance than the regular media had given credit for.
LG, compelling though your wonderfully researched hypothesis around sport as proxy warfare is, I don’t necessarily agree with the conclusions, which is more due to my own reservations about how far such an idea can be stretched, and not a comment on the rigor of your research.
Having started to follow Arsenal after Arsène became our manager, I have never experienced us winning the league cup. And all the final appearances in this competition— so very unlike the FA cup — have been disappointing. And that history has naturally made me somewhat skeptical about the whole thing. That said, would obviously love to win the first available trophy of the season!
However, it’s a final. Anything can happen — my primary hope about tomorrow is that no matter the outcome, the fanbase and the team don’t fall into either despair or hubris. It’s the least important of the four competitions we are fighting for, and let’s not let it influence the rest of our season, remarkable as it can very well be irrespective of the result tomorrow.
Mikel has a brilliant record as Arsenal player and manager at Wembley — and hopefully that played/managed 8, won 8 record extends to played/managed 11, won 11 by the end of the season. Aubameyang had scored five goals for him in three matches at Wembley, and while this team has no out-and-out goalscorer like him, a couple of goals from the best player in this squad, Mr. Collective, should see us through tomorrow.
I like your team, and fully support the decision to play Kepa. He has been our domestic cup keeper and should remain so. That’s the kind of trust that strengthens the unique indomitability of Mr. Collective.
I would prefer a minor tweak to your team though, and have Kai start and bring Viktor in later. I also have a suspicion that Gabriel Jesus, lately underused, may have a part to play albeit from the bench.
Kepa
Timber-Saliba-Gabriel-Calafiori
Eze-Zubimendi-Rice
Saka-Havertz-Trossard
Come on Arsenal!
Amazing stuff, Lonestar.
All very credible and I pray your predictions are as accurate as your attributions are assiduous.
UTA
C O Y G
Splendid work, Lonestar!
GWS TTG!
Is it too much to hope for something as comfortable as the Women’s victory against Wet Spam? I guess so, any win will do.
Superbly crafted preview, Lonestar. I like the look of your team and the sound of your prediction so let’s go win it in as straightforward a manner as you suggest, and deny Cheaty another illegitimate trophy, no matter whether the authorities are investigating them for this season’s transgressions, for their ITC (illegitimate trophy cabinet). Rather, it is high time we lift the League Cup Trophy and use it as a stepping stone to bigger and better things. Hail Caesar, I mean Mikel, and all the players who have done so well. Now is time for them to step up and reap their rewards, so let’s have it.
Get well soon TTG!
A win today would be the best medicine…..
An epic preview of a very important match with not a boy silverware at stake but also with psychological implications for this team’s belief that they will supplant the former dominant force. The classical allusions are superb, the characterisations apt and it is my fervent hope that our Caesar will earn his team the first of many Roman Triumphs with a convincing victory over these barbarians.
COYG
MCMBD
That was ‘not only’ as in ‘non modo sed etiam’ rather than ‘not a boy’! Bloody predictive text! As bad as VAR!
Get well soon, TTG. I hope the Gunners give you a curative tonic.
Cheers everyone for your kind words. A bottle of Ron Zacapa XO on the bar for yer troubles. (I’m already on the rum tonight…may as well join me😎) 🥃
TTG, get well soon, mate.
Let’s be havin them lot! 💪🏽
MCMBD
lonestar, that was hysterical…er…historical as hell. i certainly hope we are the caesar indeed, not least because it’s just past the ides of march. and let’s hope shitty are more of the south coast pompey than the roman pompey. and did you know the first triumverate was reaffirmed at lucca in 56 bc? great job.
i only disagree with calafiori in your selections. i think hincapie should be there to keep that corner quiet, and if we need some chaos later in the game bring in ricky. we could change our look entirely bringing in havertz, martinelli, and ricky in the later stages of the game….
hope you feel better soon, ttg. just not in time to potentially continue your bad luck streak in the league cup finals…tell mrs. ttg for me to be sure to make you comfy on your davenport, with hot toddys in abundance.
Nice one, Lonestar. I have a bottle of Zacapa XO at home as it is, but it is running very low….
Bloody hell, I’ve just been taken back 40 years to a Roman history lecture! Great stuff, combining references to my favourite 20th century writer along with the Silver Latin epic poem of Lucan I had great fun reading all those years ago. A bottle of Zacapa XO for yerself.
Sorry to hear you’re not going to make it, TTG. Festivities commence at 1.30 today before the traipse to Wembley. This is a game to set down a psychological marker for our visit to the Middle Eastlands next month. We’re all up for it. Hope to catch up with C100 on the concourse.
A fine preview Lonestar! Although I’m a scientist, my daughter read Ancient History for her first degree and I was on proof reading duties for her dissertation. Add to that the proximity of Mary Beard in Cambridge and I’ve always been fascinated by the Romans.
Today is a Cup Final. As well as my normal Arsenal t-shirt (today it’s “ Eze is a Gooner”), my trusty red and white scarf (a gift from the club at the 2011 Barcelona game) and my Arsenal cap, I will be wearing my red sweatshirt with a proud cannon on my left breast, which I save for special games.
Dave loved Cup Finals. He normally shared the buildup with Bath, BtM and others. Today, let’s win it for him. I’m nervous but confident. I’ve seen us lose to City at Wembley and I’ve seen us beat City at Wembley. Today is our day.
We leave at 12.30. Come on you Gunners!
Have a great day gents!
If the game and the Arsenal match the standard you’ve set in the preview, LG we’ll be in for a very entertaining and rewarding afternoon.
Enjoy the game, Holics.
Enjoy the game, all who are attending or watching from behind the sofa. Even those in front of said sofa. COYG
Wishing a great day out to all those going to Wembley. May you roar us to victory.
1-0 to the Arsenal!
With Dave looking down we must be destined to win surely. I hope there’s a few of you in the Queens Head in Pinner enjoying a pre match pint. That was one of his Wembley haunts I believe.
Eze, Ode, and Timber don’t make it – shame for them but plenty more to go for this season.
Kai in for Ode / Eze, Benny for Timber and Hincapie gets the nod over Cala
Come on You Gunners!!
MCMBD
Interesting. Injuries to first teamers will affect our options off the bench so will Max feature in the second half? Our defensive options should remain solid but the big thing is COYG
Arrizabalaga
White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie
Zubimendi, Rice
Saka, Havertz, Trossard
Gyokeres.
Bench: Raya, Calafiori, Lewis-Skelly, Mosquera, Norgaard, Martinelli, Madueke, Dowman, Jesus
On the club site, Havertz is named to both the starting XI and the bench, suggesting Eze failed a late fitness test.
Pep is going with:
Trafford
Nunes, Khusanov, Ake, O’Reilly
Rodri
Silva, Semenyo, Cherki, Doku
Haaland.
Bench: Donarumma, Ait-Nouri, Stones, Kovacic, Gonzalez, Reijnders, Foden, Marmoush, Savinho
This could come down to whether he or Arteta makes better use of the firepower on both benches.
A magnificent preview Lonestar – may we enjoy an equally magnificent performance and result to follow. Wishing TTG to feel much improved and alll those going to have a great time. Time….its time for some silverware after 6 years.
COYRRR
Another fucking league cup final that I never want to think about again
Disappointing day. Started well and could/should have scored early. Once City grew into the half they began to dominate the ball if not the game and that continued and grew into the second half.
Kepa’s mishandling was unfortunate and gifted a goal and recovery from there looked difficult – largely because our control was poor, we had no midfield creativity and were largely unable to put them under any pressure.
Calafiori’s entry raised our level a little and a Jesus header hit the bar near the end but our overall sloppiness continued into the added four minutes.
City the better side. One of our poorest performances of the season. We need either Ode or Eze on the field when we beat them at the Emptied in the completion that matters much more.
One to forget. Fair play to City for the better performance on the day.
Hopefully, like other League Cup defeats, it will be the crucible that forges future glories.
Thanks Lonestar, amazing preview.
Unfortunately what @32 Ned said.
(Et tu me patri Pep)
We have to be brave if we want to win a silverware or two.
Win the next one!
COYG
Spot on BtM @31. Couldn’t have put it better. Poor show apart from the CBs and Rice.
O Reilly O really
I can hear himself roaring at the clouds .
Maybe Goonerholic can calm him down
@35 Brilliant, Brendan.
I’ve been on the end of one or two of his roars. Never was able to calm him down though. But Dave has a way with him.
For those in need of distraction and escapism, the GHF Predictathon leaderboard for Matchweek 31 has been posted. Montagne russes in abundance. You know where to find it…
We are so bad at League Cup finals.
I was kind of okay with the result when the whistle went. Especially as we were the weaker team.
But now I’ve had some time to settle and all we can look forward to is a couple of weeks of media nonsense… well, I’m gutted. Just a massively disappointing performance, which is worse than the result.
Bugger.
@37 thanks Ned
A much better week for you than me, OM.
And in the Ropey League, too!
Le Grove cheered me up this morning. I’m over it now.
Pre match festivities were good. Then it all went south. The incompetents who run and staff Transport for London ensured it took more than 40 minutes to get from West Hampstead to Wembley Park on the jubilee line, while we watched train after train on the Metropolitan line sail past. Wembley was its usual self- staffed by The Charmless. Inside as usual the PA had been outsourced to Spinal Tap and had thus been turned up to 11 allowing no opportunity to build an atmosphere. First half was okay and we had the better chances. Second half they totally figured out that Kepa was not Raya and stopped us playing out from the back, meaning the technical flaws of Gyokeres and general match fitness of Havertz were both exposed as we couldn’t hold the ball up to get out. Before the end we left and then we were kettled outside on Wembley way for over an hour before getting to Wembley Park tube. This allowed time for the hordes of the graceless, unself aware C130y fans to queue up with us, which was as much fun as being strapped into a seat like Harry Palmer in the Ipcress File while being bombarded with images of the match and at the same time a soundtrack of Barry Manilow’s less well known third rate tunes. Took us nearly 3 hours to get home.
I hate Wembley and am never going again.
Cheers Ned. I am getting dizzy going up and down these mountains now!
Let us win the League. Long break now will be welcome after that poor second half.
Glad I didn’t have to come back from Wembley after all, so watching the Women win 5-0 was my only live football experience this weekend. Very nice it was. It may also very well have been my live last game of the season (or ever as I am considering not renewing memberships in big part due to being sick of the system as well as of corporate greediness).
@40,41 yes, I ave nearly caught that crowd fella. I can forgive the neighbors as at least they are providing comic relief but the Damned United are very annoying (the Lancashire ones that is)
I wouldn’t worry too much about the Ropey League, you’ve led a merry dance to the lot of us, great management
I am getting over it now too, a house-wide media blackout has helped, I’d have made it Osaka-wide but I lack the political clout
As Ollie says win the league – do that and we can all forget this debacle
Le Grove is very therapeutic this morning. Great recommendation SP!
Punts the ball high and long over the four man high press of the slavering opposition, in the hope that one of our isolated forwards will be able to control it. (Wonder where I got that tactic?)
It’s through the keeper’s hands. Oh shit!
Another very disappointing league cup final. This competition hates me, I’ve been at three losing finals. But a day of feeling miserable will clear I’ve learnt. Lots more to go at including beating City at the Etihad. Was home at 9.15 after waiting an hour to get out of the Wembley car park.
Next up, Southampton, Sporting Lisbon and Bournemouth. Win those three and I guarantee you we’ll feel better.
An inadvertent half century as he snicks the ball between first and second slip. Doffs cap, touches the badge.
Well in C100! I share your pain.
Benny Blanco added to England squad. A change of scene will do them good.
With my England hat on, intriguing to note that Tuchel has picked Benny over Trent Alexander-Arnold.
Nice 50 C100.
>>>>>>>