And so to the Stadium of Stone for the second leg of our Champions League quarter-final against Sporting CP on Wednesday evening.
We renew an acquaintance that began in the second round of the Fairs Cup in 1969-70, a competition we would go on to win. A good omen, one hopes.
We currently hold a slender but important lead over Sporting, which was not secured until added time in the first leg. Kai Havertz paid down more of his £65 million acquisition cost with a finish that looked simpler than it was. The travelling faithful, in good voice throughout the game, reminded the world of the value we have got for our money.
Up until that point, Dr F’s Iron Age Phoenician maritime merchant was, I imagine, thinking that an away draw is never a terrible result for a team in the first leg of a Champions League quarter-final, but the Pritani side’s need to score at home in the second leg would leave them vulnerable to the Olisipoans’ counterattacks.
The late goal will have altered that ancient wisdom, and our man, no doubt, would have returned to wondering how to get the rest of the known world to adopt the Phoenician innovations of an alphabet and writing consistently in the same direction. Runes? Really? So late Bronze Age!
Rui Borges
Before the first leg, Rui Borges warned his team that we were a wounded animal. This time, he smells blood. Our visitor’s head coach will arrive at the Ems confident that his side has a sporting chance (I’ll get my coat!) of overturning its one-goal deficit by following the playbook he used at the Estádio José Alvalade — a disciplined defence and fast breaks, interspersed with tumbling and whingeing to disrupt the opposition’s attempts to build momentum.
Arteta blunted rather than vanquished that approach in the first leg, but it still took David Raya to prevent Sporting’s XG of 1.57 goals from their shots on target from spoiling a clean sheet. Sporting also had more shots on target than we did and took more shots in the box. I present this pot-pourri of statistics to remind us that our visitors pose an attacking threat we cannot ignore.
The opposition
Rui Silva, one of Portugal’s back-up keepers, should start in goal. The sharp-eyed among you may spot João Virgínia, once of this parish, on the bench. He is now Sporting’s domestic cup keeper, although Rui Borges drops him in favour of Rui Silva once Sporting reaches semi-finals.
The young Ivorian international Ousmane Diomande, who delivered the sumptuous pass with the outside of his foot that nearly led to an early Sporting lead in the first leg, should partner Portugal international Gonçalo Inácio in the centre of a back four.
Outside them should be Spain U-21 right-back Iván Fresneda and Uruguay left-back Maxi Araújo. Fresneda came off at half-time at the weekend after feeling a twinge, so the Greek international Georgios Vagiannidis, a £30 million summer signing from Panathanaikos, may have to continue deputising.
Araújo impressed in the first leg but also caught the eye for meting out some old-school Uruguayan defending on Noni Madueke. Seven fouls, but no card. Really?
Club captain Morten Hjulmand, the Denmark international reportedly of interest to City as a replacement for Rhodri, should return after missing the first leg due to a suspension for accumulating yellow cards. Arguably, Martinelli would not have had the space to set up Havertz’s first-leg winner had Hjulmand been on the field.
He will anchor the midfield alongside seasoned Japan international Hidemasa Morita or Dani Bragança, who has been gradually building up his match minutes after a long ACL lay-off. Bragança got half an hour as a sub in the first leg and came off the bench to score the winner in the league at the weekend. Rui Borges values Bragança’s reading of the game and may look to get an hour out of him from the outset on Wednesday evening.
Ahead of the double pivot will be Mozambique’s right winger Geny Catamo and left winger Pedro Gonçalves, who scored from near the halfway line when Sporting knocked us out of the Europa League in 2022-23 and whose recent form has earned him a recall to the national squad after a four-year absence.
Playmaker Francisco Trincão, whose moustache so impresses GSD, will complete the trio of attacking midfielders. He may once have spent an evening at the Ems twiddling it, as he was an unused sub against us in a Premier League game while on loan at Wolves in the 2021-22 season.
Luis Suárez should lead the line. That is the Colombian Suárez, who was on Watford’s books for three seasons, all spent on loan, not the bitey Uruguayan. Replacing VG14, he is Sporting’s leading goalscorer this season with 33 goals in all competitions.
One to watch from the bench will be Geovany Quenda, a Bissau-born 18-year-old who has been called up but not yet capped by Portugal. Quenda returned to the squad at the weekend after fracturing a metatarsal in December. Before that, he was an ever-present, having been given his debut by Rubin Amorin as a wing-back. Rui Borges has played him, Saka-like, as a right-winger or a left-back. Like Bukayo, Quenda is left-footed, quick and has excellent close control.
Quenda’s first goal for the club relieved Cristiano Ronaldo of the title of Sporting’s youngest goalscorer. He is moving to Chelsea in the summer, so that will presumably bring a premature end to a promising career.
At the weekend, a well-rotated Sporting returned to winning ways, beating Estrela Amadora 1-0 in the league, a result Rui Borges called a sweaty triumph, although the phrase may have lost something in translation.
The Arsenal
Sweaty triumph or any close variant could not be applied to our defeat by Bournemouth last Saturday. The blinding light of revival needs to break through the dark clouds gathered overhead, sharpish.
In his pre-match press conference, Arteta kept the fitness updates close to his chest, particularly regarding Calafiori, Ødegaard, Rice, Saka and Timber, hinting that only one of those five first-choice starters would be fit to play. My punt on the starting XI:
Raya
White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapié
Zubimendi, Rice, Eze
Madueke, Gyökeres, Trossard
I could see Cristhian Mosquera starting instead of Benny Blanco, and, assuming Rice is fit, the cream-crackered Zubimendi, who is a yellow card away from a CL suspension, being rested ahead of the Man City game. Nørgaard would replace him, despite also being a suspension risk. Arteta might also start with a set-up more akin to 4-4-2, with Havertz playing in the right channel and Trossard dropping to the bench to give Eze some creative room on the left.
Sporting showed in the first leg that they were by no means the easy touch some had expected. They are a determined and disciplined side, but one we should be able to beat at home — although much the same could have been said of Bournemouth.
We stand, let us remind the Arteta naysayers, on the cusp of reaching back-to-back CL semi-finals for the first time. I can do no better than to rehearse Dr. F’s advice to the team in the previous drinks, play to your strengths but also play with courage and confidence. Or, as Arteta put it, no fear, pure fire.
To quote GSD, we need a result, and preferably a performance too, so we can go into a huge game next weekend ready to do the business. I will go for 2-1, if not a pretty 2-1, but, at this point in the season, it is the result that counts.
Enjoy the game, ‘holics, near and far.
Thanks for your usual comprehensive preview Ned- it sets up the game excellently. I drew the short straw having to describe Saturday’s game and have to describe tomorrow’s. Our squad looks decimated by injury. We’ve got a very weakened midfield . I hope we can put a competitive side on the field tomorrow because we have a great chance to get to the Champions League final . I hope we have a crowd of proper committed Arsenal supporters tomorrow and that the idiots who burst into tears when the opposition score or throw their toys out of the pram if we struggle stay well away . Let’s be proud of our team and what they have achieved .
Thanks for your usual excellent preview, Ned. I have no idea who will be fit enough to start and we may see some novel permutations in midfield and in the forward line. It’s likely that we will see a few patched up walking wounded starting but I hope no-one is risked who might otherwise make Sunday’s critical showdown, if rested. Hopefully, every man selected brings his best game and wins his individual duels and that we can get a result that takes us to the semi-final. I expect another nervy closely contested match. Hopefully we will come out on top.
COYG
Thanks Ned, that team looks about right given who’s available.
If we turn up and play to our ability then we will win as we are better
than them all over the pitch. I think I will go with 4-1 to The Arsenal
As Bath pointed out well at the end of the previous drinks it’s
best not to read the fearful murmurings of the faint-hearted
these days but I did laugh at the announcement that Iraola
will leave Bournemouth at the end of the season – I wouldn’t
mind getting a golden guinea or two for every suggestion we hire him
right now.
Entertaining and informative preview, Ned, for which many thanks. I still haven’t recovered my sang-froid after the weekend as yet and go into this game with the level of nervousness lady felt doing unseen translations in class many, many years ago.
Knot in the pit of the stomach? Check.
Racing mind, struggling to control thoughts? Check.
Slight feeling of nausea? Check.
I can’t wait for term to end…
Last, not lady…
Although any accusations of my being a big girl’s blouse are well made.
Thanks Ned, top preview.
Let’s reclaim some early season swagger, don’t dick around playing out at the back and take as many shots as possible when in range.
2-0
UTA
Thanks Ned. A typically excellent read that sets the game up well.
Personally, I am feeling bullish. The doom and gloom of so many Arsenal fans, even well-respected and even-headed ones, has crystallised my attitude of defiance. Football is like life – you can curl up and cry when things get tough, or you can show some balls and give it all you’ve got. No choice there for me.
I don’t know how the season will end up. I rather suspect there will be a few more twists and turns. But I liked the combo of Arteta and Eze giving interviews yesterday. Fire and Ice, as I saw someone in the Athletic frame it. I don’t see any good reason to give up on our players and manager with a handful of games to go.
I’m positive, I’m behind them, I believe.
Victoria Concordia Crescit.
Thanks, Ned for another quality preview – and a Predictathon update.
I’m with GSD on attitude at the moment although belief for the remainder is under strain if I’m honest, just because of the obvious fitness and fatigue issues we have to deal with.
CER -seems like whatever you said to that lady last literally got lost in translation 😳
Thanks Ned for another really interesting preview.
We have every prospect of completing the double over Sporting this evening and progressing to a club historic simultaneous ECL semi final. Team selection will be interesting with a view as to whose fit and not to overstretch anyone with Sunday’s match at the Cheatys.
This match should give everyone a release from the shackles of recent strained league performances- I thought it was a decent, confident showing in Lisbon last week.
2-0 to the good guys !
COYRRR
Raya
Mosquera, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie
Zubimendi, Rice, Eze
Madueke, Martinelli
Gyokeres.
Subs: Arrizabalaga, Setford, White, Lewis-Skelly, Salmon, Norgaard, Dudziak, Trossard, Dowman, Havertz, Jesus.
Thanks Ned for the great preview, including the detailed analysis of the opposition. Thanks also for mentioning my preview for the first leg.
Everyone playing tonight for us — starting eleven or the “finishers”, as Mikel is fond of calling the subs — should play with confidence in themselves and their teammates, play vertically, prioritize creating chances and taking shots. I guess these are simple and obvious things to say but lately it feels like the simple and obvious part of the game are missing. There are lot of reasons for that, absences and injuries and fatigues, but it just feels from the outside that there is also a degree of unnecessary caginess.
They will try to press us very high and cut off the passing lanes. Assuming Martin isn’t yet available, I would prefer we prepare ourselves tactically and physically to win 1:1 duels in their half from long passes.
The team would be announced soon. My best guess:
Raya
Timber-Saliba-Gabriel-Hincapié
Havertz-Rice-Eze
Madueke-Gyökeres-Jesus
This is the time to shake off all the malaise and remind the world of our qualities. Hoping for a 2-0 to the mighty gunners!
Come on Arsenal!
Dr F, that team would lose the midfield battle and the front three would turn over the ball so often that we would probably lose at least 3 goals!! Despite his ricks on Saturday, Zubimendi adds security in front of the defence especially with Rice carrying an injury. I would put Norgaard in the midfield before Havertz.
Tense stuff, as we get to the last 15 minutes,
Jesus and Leo on. Hope they can find a bit of form for somewhere.
Araujo has finally been booked
We’ve been better since the subs I thought,
held the ball better. Two minutes to go.
My heart could have done without that shot at the end but we
managed the last 15-20 well after a nervy period
On the go to the semi finals
I liked Declan’s interview after the game，
Sent some googlies into the long grass and
showed some spirit.
It is the result that counts.
You can’t win semis without getting to them.
We got through. That’s what counts. And we looked determined and hardworking. Those are the qualities we need.
Personally, against City I’d start Havertz up top, Trossard on the left, Zubi, Rice and Eze in midfield, and Mosquera and Hincapie at fullback. I thought there were some promising performances from our returning players. Zubi also had a good game.
Two semifinals in a row. Not bad at all, but we want more!
UTA!
Some early stats: We restricted Sporting to an xG of 0.29 (and 0.21 from open play), allowed them eight shots all game (vs our 15), of which only one was on target, and allowed them a single ‘big chance’. Defensive solidity returns.
Here is the shot map. Sporting got nothing through the centre.
@21 yeah, I thought so too Ned, we managed the game well at the
end, defending from the front was very good the last 20 minutes.
A performance that fell way below the excellence of Ned’s preview but which nevertheless propelled the Arsenal into back-to-back CL semi-finals. Fantastic stuff.
And a belated thanks for all the kind words about the preview.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>