And so to the Stadium of Stone, where we host long-standing rivals Newcastle United in Saturday’s early evening Premier League match.
It will be the 199th competitive meeting between the two clubs, dating back to September 2, 1893, when the Geordies were our opponents in our first Football League fixture. The match ended 2-2 in front of 6,000 spectators at the Manor Ground, Plumstead.
Much miffed by this result, and still smarting from being placed in the Second Division of the Football League despite applying to go straight into the First, the Tynesiders promised to wreak revenge up north, which they did to the tune of 6-0 in the return fixture at the end of the month.
Many correspondents for this fine establishment have regaled us with Newcastle’s origin story and subsequent storied history. Not for the first time, I would particularly commend you to Bath’s previews of the corresponding fixture from last season, and the one before that.
Shifting sands
It is Geordie Arabia’s future, not its past, that currently commands attention. In 2021, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), acquired a majority stake in the club, raising hopes on Tyneside for a state oil-wealth-funded bonanza to rival that in the Oilands.
Five years on, Newcastle has enjoyed some success, including winning the 2025 League Cup, its first trophy in over 50 years, but it still appears well short of its goal of establishing itself among Europe’s football elite by 2030. At three places below Sunderland, it isn’t even the top team in England’s North East.
The Saudi royal family make their Emirati counterparts look like poor cousins, but the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR), introduced in 2013, have constrained Newcastle from making the massive short-term investment in transfers and wages that kick-started City’s rise and that of Abramovich’s Chelsea before that.
Instead, PIF has played it by the book. We’ll let slide the diplomatic lobbying of the UK government to ensure the PL and FA found the {insert your adjective of choice here} Saudi regime fit and proper owners, although after Mike Ashley, that might have been a low bar.
Nonetheless, the new ownership based the club’s long-term development on smart recruitment and sustainable spending rather than on raw financial firepower. The new Squad Cost Ratio (SCR) rule, which will replace PSR from July 1, will create some additional scope for PIF to invest in Newcastle, but not enough to be transformational.
It might even choose not to go that far. The kingdom is re-evaluating its substantial budget allocation for transforming itself into a global sporting power, as it diversifies its economy in preparation for a post-fossil-fuel world (other descriptions of its motivations are available). LIV Golf will bear the brunt of the cuts, but football will get its share.
How tighter purse strings will affect Newcastle United, whose ownership is an outlier within the Saudi sports portfolio, remains unclear at this point. The Saudis are unlikely to sell such a trophy asset outright, and a bit of fancy footwork in selling St James’ Park to themselves, while partly a PSR accounting dodge, points to a commitment to a stadium revamp. Yet any Geordie still clinging to the hope that Riyadh will go full City or Chelsea to buy success by hook or crook should let go now.
A PIF team due to make its annual visit to the club next week may bring greater clarity.
Howe’s he doing?
The struggle that Eddie Howe has had to build on last season’s fifth-placed league finish is far from being solely due to the owners’ refusal to flash the cash.
The protracted Alexander Isak saga got the season off to a poor start. Neither of the new arrivals, Anthony Elanga and Nick Woltemade, has been able to fill Isak’s fleet and prolific boots, either individually or collectively, while Yoane Wissa went in the fetlock early doors and the team’s talisman, Bruno Guimarães, tore a hamstring just as the side was gathering some momentum after the turn of the year.
However, with the team plummeting to 14th place in the league with a W12 D6 L15 record, and having lost its last four games in all competitions, starting with a 7-2 CL paddlin’ by Barcelona, and eight of the last eleven, the wheels seem to be more than just spinning (I know, people who live in glass houses, and all that).
As a result, there is talk of this being the Amersham Ancelotti’s final season at the helm. His participation in next week’s talks with PIF about Newcastle’s summer transfers suggests it won’t be, although in football, never say never.
Even if he stays, he could see his midfield gutted, with Sandro Tonali, Guimarães and Anthony Gordon potentially leaving, and his defence lose Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall, either to fund a much-needed rebuild or because they see greener pastures elsewhere.
Keiran Trippier will hang up his boots when his contract expires this summer. Fellow veterans Emil Krafth and Fabian Schar are out of contract then, too, and Dan Burn will be entering the final year of his. So, too, sellable squad players Jacob Murphy, Joe Willock and keeper Nick Pope. That is a lot of potentially moving parts.
The opposition
Newcastle’s players will be familiar enough to the denizens of this fine establishment that I need only outline the team news and Eddie Howe’s likely selection.
Joelinton is suspended. Gordon, Krafth, Livramento and Schar are off games.
Guimarães came off the bench for the final half-hour of last weekend’s 2-1 defeat to Bournemouth after missing a dozen games because of his hamstring injury. Howe will be keen to start his influential playmaker — still the club’s leading goalscorer and top assists maker despite missing so many matches — even if he only gets an hour out of him before bringing on Jacob Ramsey.
Thus, I expect to see Ramsdale, formerly of this parish, in goal, behind a back four of Trippier, Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman and Hall. Five across the middle: Elanga, Tonali, Lewis Miley, Guimarães or Ramsey, and Ashley Barnes. William Osula up front.
The bench will have Burn, who has an annoyingly good record against us — he has been on the losing side in only seven of 16 games with Fulham, Brighton and Newcastle — along with Willock, Murphy, Woltemade and Wissa.
The Arsenal
Jurrrien Timber is out, but Bukayo Saka and Ricardo Calafiori may be in the squad. I doubt either will start. Thus, no changes from last Sunday’s starting XI, although if Saka does start, Benny Blanco could replace Mosquera to get the band back together down the right.
Raya
Mosquera, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapié
Rice, Zubimendi
Madueke, Ødegaard, Eze
Havertz
The last time a team came to the Emirates and we were not at the top of the league was in Matchweek 5. As it happened, our visit to St. James’ Park in Matchweek 6 propelled us to the top.
We are only off the pinnacle by the second tie-breaker, goals scored. With City playing an FA Cup semi-final against Southampton on Saturday, we again have the chance to use the Barcodes as a springboard to the top.
True, the title is no longer in our hands, but it is not in City’s either. All we can do is take all 15 points still available and hope City slip up, or, if we match them point for point to the end, to tonk a couple of teams along the way to erode their three-goal advantage in goals scored.
A Willock consolation in 2024 is the only goal Newcastle has scored at the Emirates since the end of 2014. I can see us keeping another clean sheet. Gabriel would probably nail himself to the hands of the timepiece over the Clock End rather than concede another goal.
However, our conversion rate (we rank 3rd in the league for creating big chances but 15th for taking them) makes me hesitant to expect anything more than a 2-0 victory, even though I would dearly love the floodgates to open.
We’ve got to be ‘all in’ and win the final five league games, as Arteta said in his pre-match press conference, starting with Newcastle. Believe, as Ted Lasso would say.
Enjoy the game, ‘holics, far and near.
Thank you Edward. I can’t disagree with the selections. Mosquera seems to be more trusted than White. I hope we’ve been practicing scoring goals in training. Hopefully 3 nothing scoreline, but Newcastle will be there as spoilers.
Thanks Ned for a great comprehensive preview of a match we need to win and preferably with a few goals to boot. It’s great to see the return of Saka & Calafiore to the squad – can either of them be fit enough to start, a very welcome boost if affirmative though coming on as subs may be more probable.
The Geordies are in a poor run of form but will do their best to put a dent in our challenge – hopefully an unsuccessful quest. At least their chief thug is suspended for this one – we need no further injuries at this critical time.
Ned, you must be allowing the monks too much mead – the Oilers are owned by the Abu Dhabians not Qataris.
Let’s start this final phase with a 3-0 win.
COYRRR
Thanks for an excellent preview (and for the reference to past efforts), Ned. I would be happy to see your starting eleven start and agree that neither Saka nor Calafiori should start. I’d be happy with 2-0 to the good guys.
This is another must win game which seems to have been something of a weekly mantra this season. Our strategy must be quite simple now: (1) play on the front foot; (2) make chances; (3) take those chances; (4) keep the back door closed; (5) ensure we win the game; (6) only once the result is assured, push the boat out for a high score.
COYG
Uply@2: You are gimlet-eyed. The error has been corrected — and mead rations restricted with immediate effect!
Thanks Ned, your usual thorough and entertaining review of events past,
present and possibly future.
Personally, I would start the White / Ode / Saka axis and hope for
the best. I would start Eze too but I’m not 100% sure MA will.
An early goal would be a great boost but if we are pushing for
goals to boost the GD then it’s easily possible to ship one,
5-1 to The Arsenal
As for Nice Guy Eddie’s future, I hope he stays as
he and the corrupt House of Saud complement each other
well like, say, maggots and rotting flesh.
Fortunately they mostly bought badly this season
and the Saudi Mags have got all the mediocrity
their short-sighted hypocrisy deserves.
So happy to see Saka back. If he can get back to his old self for the remainder of the season, we are in with a shout for the two remaining pots. His deputy has been so underwhelming. I think the role of league leader did not suit us, we became too cautious. Now that we are pursuing City, I believe we will show more ambition. We can and should win our five remaining games and City will drop points. I also think we will overcome Atleti. All of this and I am stone cold sober!
Fine preview Ned.
I’m returning from Norfolk so won’t see the game in the flesh but just hope we win it. We need to kickstart a much more productive vein of form immediately. A 2-0 win would be a decent start and no injuries please .
A right flank of White and Madueke doesn’t do it for me but Saka won’t start after his absence so we may see Mosquera . With Saka in reserve I’d start Dowman
Cheers Ned. Back from Madrid (hardly sawt the light of day there), unfortunately not off to London (don’t know if I will ever go to the match again or renew my membership, though apparently you have to decide by this weekend, which is, frankly speaking, bollocks…judge by the end of the season, but give your money for the following season before you can do that judgment).
Let’s just win this match, right?
Hopefully, the return of Saka, even just on the bench for now, will give us a boost.
Magpie pâté for supper.
Great work, Ned.
Along with most of us, I’ve been pretty low the last few weeks but now, enthused by the video reviews of the C130y game from Messrs. Clery and Clarke, along with the brilliant 30 minute documentary on Islington and Arsenal legend Charlie George on the.com, I am bang up for this game. 3-0 against the no-mark Barcodes and their frankly obnoxious fans.
TTG@8, I’d go with Saka and White, but if Saka can’t start then Madueke for me.
Ollie@9 – don’t give up now, mate. It’s darkest before the dawn. You’ll be missed if you don’t come back.
Cheers CER. My despair is purely based on not being able to attend matches while being bombarded by offers to buy new gear every week and similar things.
I’ll probably give the Silver one more year to see if anything changes. Otherwise, just make the occasional trip for meetups and watch a game in the pub.
After all, if I don’t depend on tickets, it’s often even easier to organise, heh.
The latest thing was noticing that they ‘reopened’ the Silver ballot to allow some ST holders in for the CL semifinal (I don’t know how it all works, guess it’s down to no Cup matches included in STs now), so we’ll see what happens, but it obviously lowers the probabilities…..
Entertaining as always, Ned and I’m grateful that this one doesn’t put the frighteners on me. I suspect that a Magpies victory would be treated as a title win by the bare beer belly boys. As that is a prospect too dire to imagine, it can’t be allowed to happen. A large pinch of what The Arsenal brought to the contest at the Emptihad last weekend should be sufficient to get the job done.
I like Bath’s football by numbers @3 but was disappointed to learn of the reduction in mead rations for the monks – they too have had a long and tiring season and, like the great Gabriel himself, the very occasional error is inevitable.
Aaron Ramsey is likely to get a very warm welcome then come and play out of his skin to demonstrate our error in releasing him. Let’s put a boatload past that bonnie laddie on our way to the first win in a far from hateful eight.
Aaron Ramssomething, certainly, BtM. 🙂
I’m hearing that -ey is running the London marathon tomorrow.
Thanks, Ned, for a preview of the match and the future in general !
Superbly written as usual – I’m guessing it takes a draft or two, but well worth it.
I don’t see it as quite such a certainty that Saka won’t start. Odegaard came back from a long absence last week, started and played the full 90 minutes. Maybe Saka has been similarly held back this time until he is properly ready to go – the last thing we would need is an 80%-90% Saka coming on to chase a game and getting injured again. I’m going g to stick my neck out and say we will see White, Odegaard and Saka back together from the off. Would Arteta even go for Calafiori as the more attacking left back given that Livramento is missing. Time to be brave, gentlemen – not gung-ho, but brave !
Ollie, I get your frustration at the whole membership thing.
I’m only a red member these days but they want to “check my bank details “ before taking payment to auto-renew.
I’ve clicked the link on two separate days now in order to confirm said details, only to be told I have to enter a queue of hundreds before they will get to me to tell me to do whatever ?
Our summer transfer business should definitely include someone with a decent grasp of the requirements for an efficiently functioning IT system.
Thanks Ned
As per the last drinks .. 5 games to go, win them all, score lots of goals, job done.
UTA
Indeed, Trev!
Aaron Ramsey is running the London Marathon for a worthy cause.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/c20q5990ny9o
Thanks, all, for the kind words.
Trev & Ollie: Spot on about the membership renewals. You would think they would make it as seamless as possible to take your money.
@19 – Bloody impressive, playing in goal against us tonight then running shoes on for a jaunt around the capital tomorrow. Man of steel, fired in the blinding heat of a blast furnace then hammered into shape in the shipyards op North.
Remarkable 🙂
@Ollie and Trev; my long-held silver evaporated without recall two seasons ago. I have signed up for a red and in the last two seasons my son (still silver) and I have been fortunate in the ballot but once – that was for the Real Madrid game so – Result! I only bother going into the ballot now if I think I might want to buy eventually on ticket exchange. You can’t even do that if you haven’t been in the ballot. PL is a money machine and we are all but punters.
Who’d be a manager, eh?
Via the FT:
Managers who left this season lasted an average of 295 days in charge, the lowest tenure since the Premier League was launched 34 years ago.
BtM@21: for punters read mugs.
Raya
White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie
Rice, Zubimendi
Odegaard, Eze, Madueke
Havertz
Bench: Arrizabalaga, Mosquera, Saka, Jesus, Martinelli, Gyokeres, Trossard, Lewis-Skelly, Dowman
White in for Mosquera; Saka on the bench; no Calafiori.
Martinelli may be carrying an injury. He trained with his left calf heavily taped.
Rammy dropped to the bench for the visitors as Howe fields a much-changed team.
Sky quoted Arteta last night as saying Calafiori was in the squad 🤷♂️. Maybe got injured climbing into the team bus …..
BtM -do I read that as you have to have been in the ballot for every game for which you want to use the Ticket Exchange ? Unbelievable. They used to welcome supporters.
Joe Willock starts however, he scored last time I think
Anyway, close on the team selection there Ned.
Come on your Gunners!!
And now — breathe!
One won. Four to go. Believe.
Yeah, the three points was the main thing.
Seeing Eze and Kai go off was tough but we stuck
with it until the end.
OM@31: I hope Havertz and Eze, who both walked off unaided, were subbed out of an abundance of caution ahead of Wednesday’s Atletico game.
Ned
Sky interviewed Eze who said he was fine and Havertz was posing for pics with fans but Arteta suggested he needed to look at them both
I’d say Eze will be ok and went off as a precaution
That was a hard watch !
@32,33 I hope you’re both right! We look better with them than without, an Ode, Eze, Saka, Kai front four in the PL looks best just now but next up is Madrid. I don’t imagine that game is going to be an easy match either but it’s looking better after grinding out the 3 points today.
TTG@33: That is good to hear. One of the blessings of being on this side of the pond is not having Sky.
The shot maps by half are interesting. First half at the top; second half underneath. Solid circles are shots on target.
Watching the game, it didn’t feel like we had as strong a defensive grip on their attack in the second half as it seems we did.
@28 Trev, any time I have tried to access Ticket Exchange and haven’t been in the ballot I get a “Your are not entitled……..” message.
From that, I deduce that if you don’t pay to enter the ballot you ain’t getting into the stadium because you are not worthy!
Finely tuned money making at its very best. Ironic really, because when I watch on TV the game for which I wasn’t deemed worthy to buy a ticket, there are invariably empty seats.
@32, Ned, I have a sneaking suspicion that neither will be risked for the Atletico away game even if judged fit to play. I think Mikel’s focus will be on not conceding. Martinelli defends better than Eze; Saka better than Madueke and it’s a huge pity that Merino isn’t fit because I’m sure he start ahead of VG on Wednesday night.
@30, Ned, Blogs mentioned this morning 8 of the biggest games of our Arsenal lives upcoming and I’m bought into that. So I’m going for One Won, Seven to go.
Gulp.
>>>>>>>