It was the London Marathon on Sunday and I didn’t spot a single Arsenal shirt amongst the 59,000 participants. It’s hardly surprising that none of our players participated given the number who are already walking wounded and the risk of serious muscle injury. The Arsenal’s players are already undertaking a marathon – I’ve lost count of the number of games they have played this season but the absence of a midweek game last week felt very unusual given the treadmill they and we have been enduring. Yet, I found it surprising that there wasn’t a single Arsenal shirt to be seen amongst the runners as it’s been seen in the Arab Spring protests in Egypt and various other televised global events (I do know there were many incognito Gooners among the runners). Perhaps that is because the team and its fans are all in the midst of their very own marathons. Talking to people in the ground and reading a few comments in social media, there’s a massive sense of tension and exhaustion amongst the fanbase. We all need to dig deep.
And so, another big game comes swiftly along. Will these CL matches prove a relief from the pressure of a series of ‘must win’ league matches that liberates the team to play the free-flowing football we used to play, or, will it be another straw on the camel’s back? Clearly, it’s a privilege and the result of a great deal of hard work, all season long, for the club to be in the frame for the two biggest trophies in club football but, like Chinese torture, each stroke of the lash wears you down.
Our opponent in the Champions League semi-final, Club Atlético de Madrid, S.A.D was founded in 1903 by three Basque students as a youth branch of Athletic Bilbao – hence, the similar shirts and badges. The club became independent of Bilbao in 1926 and adopted their current name only in 1946. Atléti, as they are known locally, have won 11 La Liga titles, 10 Copas del Rey, 2 Supercopas de Espańa, 1 Copa Presidente FFF and 1 Copa Eva Duarte (me neither!). In European competitions they have won the Cup Winners Cup (1962), the UEFA Europa League (2010, 2012, & 2018) and the UEFA Super Cup (2010, 2012 & 2018) plus the Intercontinental Cup (1974). Like the Arsenal, they have not yet won the Champions League/European Cup but they have been beaten finalists three times (1974, 2014 & 2016).
Tony Soprano wannabe, Diego Simeone has been their coach since 2011 and has revived the club which was sitting 10th in La Liga and had appointed 5 managers in less than 3 years, at the time of his appointment. He has transformed the club into a domestic and European force with a ‘relentless, win-at-all costs mentality’ though, in truth, only a pale imitation of the notorious early 70’s team of Lorenzo, replete with Argentinian thugs and immortalised in the annals of the European Cup when the first-leg of their semi-final against Glasgow Celtic was described as ‘one of the worst cases of cynical fouling the tournament has seen’ with three of their players sent off. Quite a tradition to uphold!
We have, of course, played Atléti already this season, in October, in the league phase of this competition, when we were at our imperious best, and smashed them 4-0 with second half goals from Gabriel, Martinelli and a brace from a certain Viktor Gyökeres. However, as last season’s meetings with PSG and a good investment broker would remind you, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Simeone tends to use a base 4-4-2 formation with a strong midfield press but with tactical flexibility so that the formation frequently morphs into a 5-3-2 or 4-5-1 according to the phase of play. His fundamental philosophy remains defensive resilience and explosive transitions. Atléti’s defensive solidity has been less evident this season due to rotation and injuries and their defence has frequently looked fragile, been easily broken down and has struggled with gaps. In response, the defenders have often had to sit deeper. Their build-up is described as controlled but lacking incision with a predictable final third (sounds familiar?).
Slovenian goalkeeper, Jan Oblak returned in mid-April for the second leg of their CL quarter final against Barcelona after a 5 week absence due to a muscle strain and he will certainly start this game. The first choice central defensive pairing a couple of months ago was Pubill and Hancko but the latter is ‘out until early May’ with a muscle injury. Lenglet started in Hancko’s place against Athletic Bilbao on Saturday. Le Normand is another regular option at centre back when fit, as is Giménez who is currently ‘out with a muscle injury until early May’. AI suggests that Le Normand (one booking away from suspension) and Lenglet will be the starting centre backs in this match. Molina and Llorente have shared the right back/wing back slot with the latter replaced by the former after 60 minutes on Saturday. Molina is expected to start this match. Ruggeri generally starts in the left back slot. However, Simeone regularly shuffles his defenders’ positions to meet the perceived threat from opponents. Expect any permutation of these defenders in his lineup.
In midfield, 34-year old, Koke. is team captain and their mainstay, holding midfielder and sometimes drops back to form a back three and against strong opponents (like us), often plays in a double pivot with either of two energetic young talents: Barrios or Vargas. However, Pablo Barrios is out for a month and both semi-final legs, having sustained a ‘thigh muscle injury’ in Saturday’s match against Bilbao. Cardoso and Mendosa are other options in central midfield and Cardoso replaced Barrios when he came off injured against Bilbao and is expected to start this tie. The coach’s son, Giuliano Simeone and Baena generally provide the width, though Simeone Senior has multiple wide options in Lookman, González and Almada, especially on the left. Lookman has recently been unavailable with an adductor muscle injury but he is aiming to return for this match. AI expects Giuliano Simeone and González to be the wide men in this game. Julian Alvarez (our latest crush) missed the weekend game ‘as a precaution’ with ‘thigh discomfort’ and his fitness is being closely monitored. I expect him at least to make the bench for this game and probably to start. Against Bilbao, Simeone started Griezmann and Sørloth up front and they shared three goals, the latter, returning from injury, with a brace. In that game, Griezmann was subbed after an hour. If Alvarez doesn’t make the cut (which would surprise me hugely), I expect the same pairing to start up front against us. Raspadori who joined from Napoli for EU22m last August is an alternative striker. AI expects Griezmann and Alvarez to start this game.
We know how they will play: snarling, scratching, diving, fouling and complaining. Simeone’s Atléti were ever thus. This is no tie for shrinking violets, not that we have any of those any more.
Having referred to AI about Simeone’s options for this game, I should qualify its predictions as, out of curiosity, I also checked its predicted Arsenal XI: this included Merino in midfield, instead of either Eze or Ødegaard, whom it states has a knee injury (please Dennis, NO!). It’s VAR quality, really.
Predicting the Arsenal’s starting XI is more of a challenge than I had expected after Havertz and Eze both left the field injured on Saturday. I am writing this before Arteta’s press conference, keeping my fingers crossed that Timber and Calafiori are fit and that the news on both Havertz and Eze’s fitness conveys a recovery of Lazarus proportions.
Raya is clearly unassailable in goal. Our full-backs will need to be ready for the challenge of Atléti’s fast breaks on the wings so, in the absence of Timber (fingers crossed for a full recovery facilitating a start), I would start White at right back, despite an obvious recent fall-off in his powers, for his full-back instincts, over Mosquera and start Hincapié over Calafiori, even if fit, or MLS, for his outstanding defensive contributions. A fit Calafiori would be a useful addition to proceedings in the second half. The centreback pairing of Saliba and Gabriel is unimpeachable. As is a midfield of Zubimendi, Rice and Ødegaard, even if the Norwegian isn’t yet firing on all cylinders, and hopefully AI isn’t Nostradamus! The holding midfielders will have to be on their toes to cut off the supply to Griezmann and Alvarez.
Up front is a more difficult question because of injuries. These are a damn shame as the combo of Ødegaard, Havertz and Eze looked so good against Abu Dhabi Creative Accountants. Will Saka be fit to start? Was Eze’s substitution precautionary as he implied post-match? Is Havertz capable of a miraculous recovery? There was also a rumour about Martinelli having a muscle issue after Saturday’s game – is that true?
I think that Saka and Eze will start on the bench – after all, we do have another ‘must-win’ league game on Saturday! I don’t expect Havertz to be in the squad (unless Jesùs really has his namesake’s miraculous skills) – I hope he will be available for our forthcoming games, despite his body language as he left the field on Saturday. Despite a lack of end product, I expect Madueke to start on the right with the instruction to run Ruggeri ragged and be replaced by Saka during the second half. On the left, I would start Martinelli, if fit, to run at Atléti’s right back. If the Brazilian isn’t fit, I would start Trossard over Eze, despite the Belgian’s low profile this season, given the question over Eze’s fitness.
And so, we come to the £60m question. I can’t see Havertz, whom I would otherwise choose over our other ‘centre forward’ options, starting this game, or even next Saturday’s game. Thus, it’s another opportunity for Gyökeres to make his case for a career at the Arsenal. He did, after all, score twice in our 4-0 victory in the CL league phase. Jesùs now appears to be a peripheral figure and a shadow of his former self; at best, he may be a late substitute.
Hence:
Raya
Timber/White Saliba Gabriel Hincapié
Ødegaard Zubimendi Rice
Madueke Gyökeres Martinelli/Trossard
I expect a tight, nerve-jangling match with Atléti proving determined and obdurate defenders and throwing the kitchen sink at us offensively whenever we turn over possession. I believe a draw in Madrid would be a good result but I think we are capable of pulling off a victory, albeit one close enough to allow our critics to pour scorn upon us for failing to play like Brazil 1970. 1-0 to the Arsenal has that ‘classic’ ring to it.
Enjoy the game, Holics wherever in the world you watch it.
COYG
Thanks for an informative preview, Bath. Predicting either team is a fool’s errand in the circumstances. It will be a tough game. I would take your 1-0 to the Arsenal in a heartbeat.
And a reminder for those who missed the announcement in the previous drinks that the latest update to the GHF Predictathon, for Matchweek 34, has been posted. You know where to find it…
Nice on Baff. Very informative. Seems like they’ve got injury issues to rival ours.
Like Ned, I reckon it’s too tough a gig to predict the line-up, but Baff’s effort is as good as any.
Tough game, but one I’m looking forward to. It’s a Champions League semifinal. I can’t wait!
Wow, a very comprehensive coverage of pretty much every aspect of tomorrow’s game, Bath. I think your thoughts on team selection are very much on the money and I like your optimism that we can come away from Madrid with a victory. In the context of the fatigue/injury stats of the squad that would be a wonderful accomplishment.
I went back and watched the highlight of the 4-0 win at home when, as you mention we were at our imperious best. I’d forgotten about MLS magnificent contribution (a driving, dribbling run from midfield) to Martinelli’s outstanding goal in that game. I wonder if we may see young Miles enter the fray tonight in the later stages, either to give Zubi/Declan’s aching legs a break (not literally) or to reinforce the midfield when we’re defending a lead? (I think his days as a LB are numbered and was encouraged to see his into in MF last weekend).
Saka looked strong and fit in the later stages of the Newcastle game. Perhaps tonight he can begin a sparkling run that will carry the team all the way through the Sensational Seven games remaining. I sincerely hope so.
Thanks Bath for your excellent preview. Between the AI, the coach’s son, and the snarling and scratching you seem to have covered all of it and then some. May our Spring recovery push onwards and a few blooms appear before *los noventa minutos hayan concluido.*
COYG
Our game against Burnley, scheduled for Sunday May 17 has been moved by tv companies to Monday May 18 at 8pm. No thought whatsoever for the match going fan.
C100@6: ‘Twas ever thus.
Eze is shown training in the pics the club has released, but not Havertz. Saka appears to have a strap around his left calf, unless he has had a Benny Blanco-like leg tattoo. Martinelli was shown training without the strapping on his lower left leg that he had last week, although you cannot see the back of his leg in any of the pics, so there could still be some sports tape there.
Countryman @6.
There should be a rule that no team can have their last home game of the season on a Monday night.
If this match were on Sunday and the team were still in with a chance of a title at Palace then the send-off from the crowd would have been immense. As it is, many people who can actually make the game won’t be able to hang around. We’ve been robbed of a proper last home game.
Thanks Bath, an excellent run through of what is sure to be a tight game I think.
We were winning for fun when we beat them earlier in the season and in all
honesty I think they have got a bit lucky to make the semis; cannon fodder in
the 16 and rum doings in the last 8. From that perspective this is a fantastic
chance to make our 2nd final.
On the other hand a semi-final against a team we beat earlier in the competition
didn’t work out so well for us last year.
Like others I have no idea of our XI but I do like Bath’s 1-0 to The Arsenal.
Great preview, Trev! 😉
Or, is that the real bath ? 😀
First leg might be cagey, but I’ll take the same result as in Lisbon.
Thanks for the Predictathon, Ned!
(And well in Matt for the 50 on the previous innings)
If you haven’t already, read this.
Good evening everyone.
Holloway boy here, living in South-East France.
Only ever posted once on here, after the passing of the Guvnor.
Message for Ollie:
I’ll be in Paris this coming weekend, got a gig to go to Sunday evening.
Where’s the best place to watch the match with other Gooners in central Paris?
Well done to all the team for keeping up the excellent quality of the blog!
Welcome John! As is customary there’s a drink of your choice on the bar for you. I’m sure Ollie will sort you out.
Drop in whenever you like.
Prematch Presser Update:
Eze and Calafiori are in the squad for this match. Timber and Havartz are out.
Cheers C100!
A pint of decent lager or IPA, and a Jamie chaser for me ( no reference to spitty Carragher there)
John @15. Not picked up the Provençal taste for pastis then!
Hi JML @ 12. I’d say The Lions rue Chevaleret. That’s with hoping it’s not too bad for a match against Fulham that is not a title decider.
Couple of times I had to renounce as way too packed. A few other times stuck at it as in early enough, but a big struggle to get to the bar for refuels.
And then it magically empties at the final whistled, helped by the fact that some people just stand there for 110 minutes having not a single drink or maybe just one…
Alternative, maybe the Bombardier on place du Panthéon, though not particularly an Arsenal pub (used to be co-managed by a Gunner but that was about 20-25 years ago).
C100, not quite as far south as Provence….. but we do like a Ricard session where I live!
It’s just not a ‘Footie drink’ for me…
Ollie, thanks for the infos. Oui, je sais que les français sont capables de tenir deux heures avec une demi pinte, mais ça change pour le mieux!
My hotel is in the 10ème…i’ll see what’s easiest.
And that, as Kenneth Williams used to say, is yer actual French.
Infamy, infamy….
@14 that isn’t good news about Kai as you correctly guessed in the preview.
Another chance for VG.
Caught the last half hour of PSG/Bayern – great effort from Bayern
from 5-2 down. I think I’d prefer PSG just from a revenge for last
year perspective but either will be a tough match so doesn’t really
matter.
Matt @21, I think we can defend far better than both of these defences. OK, their attackers look scary but they had more space and time than we ever get in the PL. Neither Atléti nor we will give them that space or time on the ball. But we need Saka and a fit Havertz to join Eze and Ødegaard up front to give them enough problems to put them on the back foot and Gabriel to recover his mojo on set pieces. But first, let’s beat Atléti.
PSG v Bayern was one of the greatest games I’ve seen in years. Echoes of peak AC Milan, Cruyff era Ajax or 1970 Brazil.
Thanks Bath- great work. Yes Ollie, it’s really him 🙃
Eze is fit after his precautionary early exit on Saturday, Saka still ok, as is Martinelli.
Havertz and Timber out.
Arteta didn’t sound very optimistic about Timber in an interview on Sky this evening.
The decision to play Burnley on a Monday night would be bad enough at any point but for the last home game of the season is disgraceful. The players’s lap of honour with their youngsters just another tradition for Sky to trash without a second thought.
Any win, or draw, no injuries will be just fine tomorrow 🤞🏻🤞🏻
Welcome, JML. Don’t be a stranger.
A fine preview Bath .
I would be horrified if we started Madueke in a game against Atletico. I think he will start Saka . I suspect the rest of your suggested side is correct but I would play Eze in the role he had against C130y .
Tonight’s fare was superlative but the media will use it as a stick to beat Arsenal with even if we get through . We can’t attack like that but we don’t defend like that either . I think we will chalk up a draw or narrow defeat tomorrow and pray for no injuries .
As for the Burnley game I have to attend an AGM on the Monday night and will be heartbroken to miss it. Hopefully C130y will get lots of injuries from their fixture pile-up and drop from exhaustion. Modern football has its drawbacks
Finally welcome JML. John Matthews was a good player in the mid- seventies .
I always liked John Matthews as a young kid in the mid seventies too, mainly cos of the
name I must admit 😃
@22 as you say Atléti first. And a little revenge for the semi-final defeat in AW’s last European game as our manager.
Welcome, JML, although I must say that name gave me shudders and not necessarily in a good way!
Although I was watching from the Schoolboys on the east side of the ground bordering the Nirth Bank in those days so my memory may be playing tricks. I didn’t realise John was an Islington boy and went to the local boys school, Highbury Grove, which later produced Chris Whyte and the ill-fated Ryan Smith, who looked like being a fabulous player until a horrendous tackle in the reserves.
Welcome indeed JML. There’s a Bloody Mary on the bar for you after your excesses last night. Hair of the dog and that.
Bayern v PSG was exciting but I’d be horrified if we defended like that. It will get a lot of plaudits and ‘think’ pieces etc. but you can’t play a league season that way and, frankly, the better team lost the match. If Bayern go out in a blaze of glory they won’t care how many people told them they were the antidote to modern football – they’ll just wish they’d bothered with defending.
Madueke played a great pass to Havertz for the Eze goal against the Barcodes, but I’ve not seen anyone highlight it. All the focus has been on the deft Kai layoff and the beautiful Eze hit. But after we tried 2 short corners, Newcastle went to get out to Odegaard and Maduke did so well to see Havertz in space, then get the timing and weight of the pass perfect. It was a really good moment, and the kind of in-game intelligence he doesn’t always show. More of that please, Noni.
It’s going to be strange at the ground tonight as the ladies play a league match against Leicester at roughly the same time as we play in Madrid . I wonder how many spectators will turn up and how many people support the ladies team more than the men?
Blogs nails itin his analysis of our best strategy tonight:
“Regardless of what anyone says, if being more adventurous going forward meant we let in as many as either side last night, there would be plenty of grumbles. I want us to be better offensively, we clearly lack the elite talent of some other sides, but the balance has to be right at this level.”
And Art de Roche makes a very strong and, for me, a very convincing case in the Athletic for starting Trossard or Jesùs as a ‘false nine’ rather than Gyökeres:
“Dropping Gyokeres in the middle of a trophy chase may be harsh, but others give Arteta’s side a better chance of dominating and winning matches.”
GSD@30 & 31: Well said about Bayern and PSG’s defending.
On the Eze goal against the Barcodes, I wondered at the time if that was a practised three-corner routine, with the first two short corners the rope-a-dope. The off-the-ball movement was noticeably different for the third one, opening up the pathway for Noni-to-Kai-to-Eze.
If Arteta was offered a deal to swap our front four en mass for PSG or Bayern’s, he would take it, and Louis Enrique and Konpany would take a similar trade for our defence.
I suspect so, Ned.
That would make some proper ‘Harlem Globe Trotters’ football equivalent.
Excellent preview Bath with a superb analysis of the current iteration of Atletico. They are not as defensively impregnable as they used to be but the snarling street-fighting attitude is still very much present, and I would expect a game of attrition where the midfield control is likely to decide the outcome.
Loved Martin’s pre-game interview. Very easy to see why he is our captain.
I would like to see the following starting eleven, though it’s likelier that yours is the one we would line up with.
Raya
White-Saliba-Gabriel-Hincapié
Ødegaard-Zubimendi-Rice
Saka-Jesus-Eze
Ricky and Martinelli as key alternative combination on the left side to bring tactical variety as needed later in the game. A 1-0 win will be great, for that matter any win!
Come on Arsenal!
The Tott-loving BBC Sports editors have plumbed new depths and produced a BBC Football web page today that completely ignores tonight’s semi-final:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football
An article on our beloved KT3 who is much missed
https://dailycannon.com/2026/04/kieran-tierney-injuries-arsenal-celtic/
He has miraculously become much fitter and has played 48 games this season . Might this be a worrying indication that Arteta’s training methods are too demanding or that Scottish football is a lot less intense. Whatever I’m delighted he is well and I hope he has a great World Cup
Bath@38: Tut! Tut! There is an article buried down page discussing how Wenger failed to sign Atletico icon Greizmann.
TTG@39: Tierney has played fewer minutes this season than either Saliba or Gabriel. He also plays relatively few full games; he has had only nine 90-minute appearances in 30 SPL games and 15 in 48 in all competitions. He is being spared the high-stress minutes on a fatigued body late in games, which may be savvy management on Celtic’s part.
I would also hazard that it is the intensity of the minutes that is one of the critical factors in a player staying injury-free, and suggest that a Celtic full-back across a season gets more recovery time in games than a PL counterpart.
That all said, I wish him well at the World Cup and look forward to Allaster McKallaster celebrating many Tierney moments.
Thanks Bath for a fine preview. Tonight’s match may well be more interesting than m@ny forecast – it is a ECL place at stake, though not the goal fest of yesterday’s match. Hopefully we do ourselves justice and come away with a good result and no further injuries.
COYRRR
Talking of game-load, I note that we have played 20 more games so far this season than Man U.
Great preview Bath!
We may be able to outsnarl them with Benny and Hincapie at fullback!
I foresee many cartes jaune! (that’s Quebec French😜🇨🇦)
@41, Ned, if Allaster McKallaster would don red and white scarf and thereby qualify as a neutral commentator on all of our games (as he does and is on Scotland commentary), I’d cease listening to Adrian and Dan immediately because, by definition, Allaster would be the case to beat. AND, iff TTG was listening and viewing with me, I’d happily provide a simultaneous translation of the commentary into Kentish for him.
No match cover on TV in the Dutch Antilles so Adrian and Dan for me this pm. No condolences necessary.
BtM@45- I just hope you the sound of The Arsenal winning coming from your headphones manages to drown out the sound of the sea lapping at your feet this afternoon.
Thanks for all the nice words of welcome!
I took on this moniker (or ‘nom de plume’ as nobody says here in France) a few years back to join in a bit on another blog (that doesn’t exist anymore, I think)
Saw so many monikers using fantastic players’ names, thought I’d go against the grain a tad.
John Mathews was quite crap, and sadly got a lot of stick from the fans.
I remember him scoring two goals against some lowlife team, Coventry I think, in a 4-0 or 4-1 victory at Highbury.
The cheers were hilariously ironic, and he played the part….celebrating with a big grin!
JML
I remember Matthews playing at centre back at West Ham and really impressing me ( much to my surprise ). He played at a time when we weren’t very good and were building up to the Howe and then Graham era
I note FIFA have floated a proposal that every club must start an academy graduate in every game . It’s not without merit but I suspect it will be strongly opposed by some clubs in England.
I’ve just seen our starting front three tonight. My optimism has reduced slightly
That would be:
Raya
White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie
Zubimendi, Rice, Odegaard
Madueke, Martinelli
Gyokeres.
Bench: Arrizabalaga, Setford, Calafiori, Lewis-Skelly, Mosquera, Salmon, Norgaard, Eze, Trossard, Saka, Dowman, Jesus.
Don’t mind if I do.
Just sayin’!
Yeah, nice way to end a half 😃😃
That was one of our best ever 45 minutes in a European away game. Controlled the game. Silenced the crowd after ten minutes. Thoroughly deserve the lead. Now “keep the heid” as my dear old Ma used to say to me on the way to an exam. Keep them out for the first 15-20 and administer the coup de grace in the late second half. That would be a proper masterclass.
Bollocks, can’t argue with the handball
CoYGs!
Ode looks glum
Tough 10 minutes, gotta hang in there now
No one can accuse Mikel of not going for it
Good to see Saka on
Looks a penalty to me, bollocks.
They’re a really annoying team, no surprise there
Didn’t think the pen would be overturned once it was given,
Looked very difficult at one point n the 2nd half but we weathered that well
all things considered and looked the more likely to nick it at the end.
A game of two halves and two penalty decisions. We need to sort this out at our place.
Well in for the half-ton, GSD.
That was a thoroughly absorbing game. Good to see some proper defending and both managers earning their corn.
An away draw leaves us with a good platform for the second leg at the Emirates next week.
We’ll do them at the Emirates.
Understand all of the subs except Jesus. He’s a busted flush.
C100@64: So much straighter to the point than I managed!
As one of his most consistent critics may I congratulate Viktor on a fine performance tonight . He carried a major threat throughout and hit a mean penalty . I agree with C100 that Gabriel Jesus is not a credible closing striker
VAR had no business interfering with the second penalty. That’s clear.
We should be much stronger than them at home. But an away draw means we can still get done by more dodgy penalty/red card decisions back at our place.
I didn’t have any problem with the Jesus sub. His cameo against Sporting was good, so Arteta was probably hoping for more of the same. And it looks like we need to start Gyokeres against Fulham and again against Atleti, so we needed to get him off the pitch. After those three subs came on, we took control of the last 20 mins, and Jesus was a part of that. 6 out of 10, nothing great, nothing awful.
>>>>>>>