And so to the London Stadium for Sunday’s late-afternoon Premier League game against West Ham United. It was scheduled for the day before, but that didn’t suit Sky Sports, so Sunday it is. Were you asked whether that was convenient? Me, neither.
The London Stadium, née the 2012 Olympic Stadium, strikes me as a soulless venue. It certainly will feel that way after the extraordinary atmosphere at the Ems on Tuesday evening. But with just three games to go, the team will have to shut out the lack of noise and focus on bringing a successful conclusion to the season three points closer.
The venue’s saving grace, if it has one, is that it is not West Ham’s old digs, the Boleyn Ground in Upton Park, a particularly nasty place to go back in the day. Younger ‘holics might care to Google ‘Inter City Firm’, but not if they are of a sensitive disposition.
Earlier this week, I read some remarks by Alex Fynn, a football business consultant, who argued that, for financial reasons, clubs want to replace ‘legacy fans’ with ‘global football tourists’. While most of us in this fine establishment would consider ourselves the former rather than the latter, I doubt any of us regret the end of the ugly and violent era of English football hooliganism.
Lea Valley Sinkhole
It seems increasingly likely that one end or the other of the Lower Lea Valley will host Championship football next season. At the time of writing, six teams could still be relegated alongside Burnley and Wolves, though that number could fall to four by the time our game kicks off. Either way, the clubs based in N17 and E20 are the two most likely candidates to go down.
A victory for us on Sunday would heavily tilt the odds of avoiding the drop in favour of the inhabitants of the Middlesex Marshes. So be it. Our eyes are on bigger prizes.
Nuno Espírito Santos
The Portuguese was the first Premier League manager to get the tin tack this season, after falling out with Nottingham Forest owner Evangelos Marinakis. (How did no Predictathon player foresee that?)
Nuno took over at West Ham in late September, after the Hammers, having won only one of their first five games, sacked Graham Potter. The long-faced, ginger-beardy one has gone on to rescue Sweden’s World Cup campaign and, with an assist from our very own Big Vik, has guided them to the finals this summer.
Nuno has injected tactical discipline and shape into his new charges, as he tends to do. However, consistent performance has been elusive. His squad has managed back-to-back league wins just twice and has secured only eight victories in total.
He had lifted them from seven points adrift of safety to one place above the drop zone — at least until last week, when the neighbours won at Villa Park (how dire were Villa?) and the Irons were beaten 3-0 at Brentford, perhaps unluckily, as they hit the woodwork four times. Yet even then, they should probably still have lost 2-1. The big chances fell to the Bees.
Back in the relegation zone, West Ham are a point adrift of safety, but their fate is no longer in their own hands.
The Opposition
Mads Hermansen took over the gloves in early February when Alphonse Areola was relegated to Cup keeper. Our former glove-butler, Lukasz Fabianski, has missed the entire season, save for one game, due to a back injury.
I will take a punt that, ahead of the Dane, Nuno will switch from his customary 4-4-1-1 to 3-4-2-1, as he did in the home draw against City in March. The back three would then likely comprise another of our old boys, Konstantinos Mavropanos, and the Frenchmen, Axel Disasi, who is on loan from Chelsea, and Jean-Clair Todibo, whose loan from Nice was made permanent last summer.
Kyle Walker-Peters and the young Senegalese El Hajdi Malick Diouf would be the wing-backs, dropping back to form a back five when West Ham are out of possession. Completing the midfield centrally would be the Czech Tomás Soucek alongside the 21-year-old Portuguese international Mateus Fernandes. He joined from Southampton in the summer to replace Flamengo-bound Lucas Paquetá. Reportedly, PSG and Man U have eyes on him for a summer move.
If Nuno does stick with a back four, then Todibo would likely be the one to drop to the bench, along with Walker-Peters, who would be replaced at right back by the taller and defensively stronger Aaron Wan-Bissaka.
Captain Jarrod Bowen is the team’s talisman. No Englishman has more goals and assists combined this season than Bowen’s 18, even though he has not scored in his last 11 appearances. He and the dangerously direct Dutchman, Crysencio Sommerville, will pose a threat down the flanks on the counterattack. Both will be on many clubs’ summer shopping lists if West Ham go down.
Fellow winger Adama Traoré, the ex-Fulham and, believe it or not, Barcelona man, would be the fresh legs to bring on late in the game.
That would leave one slot to fill. The Argentine, Taty Castellanos, has been playing the nine in the 4-4-1-1, with Brazilian Pablo as a 10 behind him. The pair arrived in January from Lazio and Gil Vicente (a Primeira Liga team from Barcelos in northern Portugal), respectively. Their paltry return of five goals between them, for a combined outlay of £45 million, may tempt Nuno to drop them both in favour of the veteran Callum Wilson, although my hunch is that Castellanos will start.
Our record at the London Stadium is encouraging — W5 D3 L2 — and we have scored 19 goals in our last five visits. Yet, despite their predicament, West Ham are unbeaten in their last six home league matches (W3 D3) — their longest run without defeat on home soil since their final season at Upton Park, 2015-16.
Yet, they have also lost all five of their home London derbies this season. What better time to hit them for six?
The Arsenal
It increasingly looks as though Mikel Merino and Jurrien Timber will be out for the rest of the season. Everyone else is available, Arteta says. That would include Kai Havertz and Martin Ødegaard, one assumes. The skipper is the selection conundrum.
I have gone back and forth on whether we will see the same XI that started against Fulham and Atletico to maintain the rediscovered rhythm, or whether Arteta will opt to manage tired bodies and keep the whole squad primed for the final dash to the wire. At the time of writing, my pendulum has swung to:
Raya
White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapié
Rice, Lewis-Skelly,
Saka, Ødegaard, Trossard
Gyökeres
City’s draw at the Hill Dickinson last Monday has put the title back in our hands. Doku’s last-ditch equaliser in the ninth of the six added minutes — really? — means we likely still have to win our final three league games. Our margin for error remains zero.
Nevertheless, we should beat a team with the league’s fifth-least potent attack and the third-leakiest defence. It is particularly vulnerable to set pieces: it ranks second in the league for goals conceded from set pieces and is top for those from corners.
The gentlemen of the turf suggest that a 1-0 or 2-1 away win is the most likely outcome. I would suggest that, even with West Ham scrapping for survival, we can win 3-0, provided we shake off any hangover from Tuesday’s celebrations.
Three league games and a Champions League final to go. No time for the faint-hearted or the weak-willed. Believe, believe, believe and win, win, win — and then win one more.
Enjoy the game, ‘holics, near and far.
Ned since you penned this excellent preview C130y have cut the deficit at the top to two points meaning a win tomorrow for us is vital. We will feel enormous pressure but think about them ! They have to record a win against the league leaders , Champions League finalists and a team who have beaten them at the London Stadium twice by an aggregate of11-2 in the last two seasons ! Nevertheless they will go for it as fiercely as they can but their morale is fragile and that stadium empties out when things start to go wrong .
During the short Ljungberg era of management I had to catch a train that went through Stratford fifteen minutes before the end of the game with them. I boarded at St. Pancras with us 3-1 up and six minutes later when it reached Stratford the platform was heaving with very forlorn Hammers .They would have had to leave as soon as we scored our third and we’ve seen in recent seasons the half-time fire drill . Let’s provoke another full scale fire drill tomorrow. I am hoping for a 3-0 win for us
One extra “believe” and one extra “win” might be added, just for good measure. Thanks for your sterling preview, Ned and the many monks, and COYG let us see you rise to the big occasion.
Thanks Ned, a thorough preview as ever, and a score and XI that
are fine with me. Let’s hope that Bowen’s goal drought continues
and we can stick an early goal in to get the ball rolling.
As JML said in the last drinks, yesterday’s result doesn’t change
the fact that three win does it, so the three points any which way will do.
Nice one Ned!
Just do it, Arsenal.
It’s time to burst a few bubbles.
COYG
my apologies for spelling ‘actual’ as ‘actuel’…..polluted by yer actual French….
Just win our games now..
F*ck ’em all
F*ck ’em all
Man United , West Ham, Liverpool..
Coz….
Thanks Ned for the great preview! Especially for the detailed analysis of the opposition. Let’s hope we can exploit with surgical precision their various weaknesses you have identified.
I like your starting eleven, but I would prefer to start with Calafiori to bring more attacking variation and thrust towards early lead. Hincapié can then later provide the defensive protection as we see out. Ideally.
Raya
White-Saliba-Gabriel-Calafiori
Ødegaard-Rice-MLS
Saka-Gyökeres-Trossard
An early goal to settle the nerve and then make the dominance count towards a couple of more. Would love your scoreline.
Come on Arsenal!
Cheers Ned, excellent and informative preview as ever.
For me any win will do.
Come on you Gunners!
Cheers Ned! WWW (then W as a bonus indeed)
Excellent preview, Ned. I like your starting team and think that’s the one we’ll see. Regarding the difference between the Boleyn and the soulless bowl, the new ground is in no way intimidating. Maybe that’s because spectators at the back of the away end are so far away from the pitch it takes so long for the light to travel it feels like watching the game on a dodgy stream. The worst thing about the experience is if Hackney Wick train station is shut (a not uncommon occurrence on Sundays) and you have to walk to Stratford post match, mingling with the great unwashed who have wangled a weekend on license from whichever of His Majesty’s custodial hotels they reside or, worse, Essex dormitory towns. Have you been to Basildon or Chelmsford? Not so much towns as low security open prisons. Although the relatively short walk we used to have to do from Upton Park station – right as you left and then past that soulless, brutalist 1960’s “precinct” with the pub where their mob met- was far, far more nerve wracking and, frankly, dangerous back in the day, Thinking back, I don’t ever remember walking that short distance. It was always running, pre and post match.
Given the nature of our last 2 performances, the fact that we have gained further strength from returnees getting ever closer to genuine match fitness and the quality of the opposition, I think we can put in a statement win. If we can bolster the goal difference again, then so much the better, but it’s the win that’s important.
Safe travels to C100 and son, who dislikes the ground even more than me.
COYR’s.
Thanks Ned
And thanks CER for reminiscing about the away days at WHam – chilling outside the ground and equally intimidating inside. Now Pep is a WHam supporter – who knew? Tart.
I’m hoping for a comfortable 2 or 3-0 win but of course the three points are required any which way. One game at a time.
UTA
Cheers Ned, another information full preview.
Let’s carry on playing at the level of the last 2 games and put the hammers to the sword – the motivation surely must be there with just 3 league games to go. Just win!!
COYRRR
Nice piece in the Observer. I’m off to the Olympic Park/London Stadium in an hour. COYG!
https://observer.co.uk/news/sport/article/after-twenty-years-has-the-emirates-finally-come-of-age
Another very fine preview, Ned. I like the look of your team which will be complemented by a very strong bench enabling Mikel to ring changes, either for improvement or for rest and relaxation depending upon how the chips fall. The latter would suit me much better as would your notion of a 3-0 away win.
I have to admit that I’m somewhat apprehensive but not quite as much so as the two Hammers fans I played golf with yesterday morning. We were all agreed that both sides will be giving their all for a win and the contest will be a tough one.
Three points please, Arsenal.
C100@12- thanks for that link. It’s a lovely piece. And to confirm, there is nothing plastic or contrived about “ The Angel” or Louis Dunford. He has N1 running through his veins. He grew up just over the road from where I did, although obviously years later. Our flats used to take on his flats at football on Barnsbury Park.
Thanks, Ned, for another top preview.
Your team looks good to me. While the extra forward thrust (matron !) of Eze with MLS is very tempting, I think the boss will want to at least start with a measure of control over a side scrapping for survival.
Like one or two others, I have no fond memories of Upton Park. It was not a place to wear your colours or cheer for your team as I once discovered when we scored in an FA Cup match. Horrendous place.
Come on Arsenal. As the man said, win, win, win and then once more. 🤞🏻🤞🏻
Cheers Ned!
We are coming off a morale boosting win over Atléti, have the prospect of 8 days rest before our next fixture and have some walking wounded returning to the squad. We play the team in 18th place who are in the top 5 for goals conceded and bottom 5 for goals conceded and are the worst in the league at conceding from set-pieces.
If we can’t grasp this nettle then this squad will never win this league. They will never have a better opportunity.
The only thing that makes me nervous is the referee.
Thanks for the kind words, all.
CER@9 & Trev@15: You’ve stirred some memories of Upton Park best left unstirred. A truly horrid place.
C199@12: Thanks for that link. A delightful read. Tradition and ritual are so much a part of ‘going to the football’. As the song says, you can’t buy history. It may be the only part of the game left that isn’t for sale.
We’re in. Just the 194 steps up to row 68.
An unchanged Xi from MA, given the last two games I think no one
can seriously object, though many will in fact 😂😂
Arteta’s pendulum swung in the opposite direction to mine!
Raya
White, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori
Rice, Lewis-Skelly
Eze, Trossard, Saka
Gyokeres
Bench: Arrizabalaga, Mosquera, Hincapié, Ødegaard, Martinelli, Madueke, Havertz, Zubimendi, Dowman.
I did better with WHU, and it does look like a switch to a back three for them.
C100@19: Are you even in the same postcode as the pitch?
Enjoy the game and bring us back a win.
Focus!
COYG
Nice one, Ned.
Come on Arsenal!
Come on you Gunners!
We rather lost our way in that half, the further it progressed. Saka and Eze not in the game nearly enough and we’re not making the most of the rejuvenated Gyokeres either. White’s injury – which looks rather season ending to me- really impacted us. It’s not terribly encouraging that the manager didn’t feel comfortable bringing on Mosquera, but rather moved Rice to a right back-ish role. Hopefully all to be rectified at half time.
Since White crocked and Rice went to RB we lost the MF. TF He’s changed it.
COYG
Ohhhhh God
One-nil to the Arsenal!
Great goal Leo.
But
That VAR decision!
Will my blood pressure ever come down.
Fucking hell
Well done, lads.
1-0 to the Arsenal. Breakfast of champions!
Phew! Phew! and thrice phew!
We are going to hear a ton of bollox about that VAR decision, but Raya was fouled. End of.
Raya MOTM, by the way, for twice keeping us in it when we could have gone behind. The save from Mateus Fernandes in particular may have won the title.
What Ned said @ 33.
Not sure about 32, it was obvious, and he was even fouled bu two players at once, though it was odd they only showed the shirt pull after the VAR decision.
As you say Ned, Raya was fouled end of 😃
Good to have Leo back scoring handy goals too.
Three games to go.
The two turning points were White’s departure and the Martin Odegaard’s arrival.
Bringing Zubi on for White definitely destabilised the team and seemed to confuse the players. We lost our way completely. Zubi was poor, the Rice/MLS combo was decoupled and we were very lucky to go in at the break level.
MO and Havertz changed the tone and stemmed the flow.
Saka and Zubi were both very poor and probably shouldn’t start in the next two league games. MLS in midfield and Cala or Piero at LB are, for me, two musts.
I think we will probably start Mosquera at home to Burnley
but who knows. We started well but it got iffy,
We’ve pissed off all the right people with that win.
We were SO dominant until the White injury and made several good chances and really should have scored twice. I think MA8 overthought the sub and the team’s balance was completely wrong when Rice went to RB. Thank goodness he recognised that at HT but wasted a sub and lost Calafiori’s offensive contributions sorting it out. We only got back in control of the game in the last 10-15 minutes and the arrival of Ødegaard and Havertz gave us far more control and edge. Madueke even invigorated the right wing with Saka looking well below par.
Thankyou David Raya.
Thankyou Leo Trossard
Thankyou Kavanagh and England.
A MAHOOOSIVE win.
Onward.
BtM@36- spot on. The Zubimendi sub stole 30 minutes from us. We went from being in control to being completely disrupted. It then took 2 rounds if substitutions to rectify a huge error. Arteta must and, I’m sure, will learn from it. If you do that against good teams, you’ll get crucified. On the upside, Arteta recognised his error and moved to fix it.
Never in doubt!
C100@41: 👍
Bravo, C100 and son. So glad you got a ticket, You’ve seriously put in the hard yards.
>>>>>>>