This season just concluded, we became the first side in the Premier League’s 34 editions to go through a campaign without conceding a penalty or receiving a red card. We did, of course, concede a penalty of consequence in the Champions League final, and two others on the way there. However, that is beyond the scope of this disciplinary review.
The editors requested an examination of our record both in a historical context and in comparison with the teams we have competed against for the PL title in recent seasons.
They may have hoped that this would reveal a deep conspiracy among referees to do us down. Not to bury the lede, as they used to say when journalism was still honest and thoughtful, it is really, really difficult to find coherence in how the employees of the Professional Game Match Officials Limited brandish the two cards they carry in their pockets.
Perhaps ‘Limited’ should be at the start of their name, not the end.
There was a foul roughly every four and a half minutes in the league last season, an average of 21 per game. Our average of 10.3 per game was slightly below our fair share. Wolves committed the most, at 13.0 per game, and City the fewest, at 9.7. Yet thirteen of the 20 PL clubs were roughly within half a foul per game of our figure.
The blue line in the chart below shows that our number last season was close to the midpoint of the narrow range of our foul rate over the past decade. Myth no. 1 to dispel: Arteta has got his team fouling less. He hasn’t. Where the fouls are conceded is a different matter, and that has affected our yellow-card count. More on that later.
Next, let’s consider red and yellow cards, represented in the chart by, er, the red and yellow lines. Last season’s yellow card count was relatively low, but not the lowest over the past 10 seasons. Nor has there been a steady decline during the Arteta years. This term was the first since 2022-23 when we received fewer yellow cards than the previous season.
In general, in the Premier League, the correlation between fouls committed and yellow cards issued is very strong, as one would expect. However, for Arsenal, considered in isolation, the correlation is weaker than in the league as a whole, though it remains reasonably strong.
That, I shall argue later, is not a coincidence.
The red line shows no correlation with either yellows or fouls conceded. We should not expect one. Red cards are relatively rare, and VAR puts its oar in, not always for the best. The Key Match Incidents panel reckoned we should have had four reds last season, not zero. The previous season, the panel had said we should not have had as many as we did.
However, the tally is what it is, making last season the second of the past four seasons without any red cards. For the record, the most red cards we’ve had in a season in the Premier League era is seven in 1998-99.
Where we ranked for fouls, yellow cards and red cards among the other PL clubs over the past ten seasons underlines the randomness of red cards.
Last season we ranked joint 18th for red cards (City and Brighton also had no red cards last season) but 16th for fouls. The previous season we were 17th for fouls but top for reds. In 2020-21, we were second for reds but 20th for fouls. Go figure.
It would be easy to see a conspiracy afoot. Yet, as the next pair of charts show, the same erraticity in yellow and red card issuance applies to the other members of the Big Five and the neighbours, over the past ten seasons.
The only reasonable conclusion the man on the Clapham omnibus could draw is that there is no coherence or consistency among Premier League referees.
No surprises there, then.
The final chart shows our yellow card count by player for last season. Two-thirds were for fouls, roughly one-sixth for time-wasting or delaying restarts, and the remainder for a miscellany of infractions.
I draw your attention to the numbers for Gabriel and Saliba, four and two, respectively, of which only half were for fouls.
I would suggest that these figures hold the key to why our yellow card count has been relatively low compared with other clubs in recent seasons, and that this season our red card count has evaporated, even though we are still fouling as much as ever.
Gabriel ranked 33rd and Saliba 62nd, respectively, for yellow cards last season, not among all PL players but among just PL centre-backs. The top 10 included Brighton’s Dunk and van Hecke, with 10 and nine yellows, respectively. Newcastle’s Burn had nine. Everton’s Tarkowski had eight, as did Bournemouth’s Senesi. Wolves’ Mosquera led the way with 11. There was a sprinkling of red cards among that cohort, too.
I would argue that those extraordinarily low figures for Gabriel and Saliba are a consequence of the discipline and organisation Arteta has instilled in the team, rather than the result of specific measures to reduce cards.
I will acknowledge that after Saliba was sent off at Bournemouth in October 2024, Arteta said, “we cannot continue to play with 10 men at this level”, and that the team needed to eliminate red cards. I will pair this with Arteta’s oft-stated maxim that one quality he values in a player is availability, which includes avoiding suspensions.
Yet, to my mind, it is the defensive organisation built on strict positioning principles and the discipline to hold that structure for long periods in games, allied to a game plan based on control and on making the opposition play where we want them to play, i.e., away from yellow and red card-prone areas in front of our goal, that has made the difference to the card counts.
Our defenders have fewer desperate last-ditch tackles to make — and in Saliba’s case, as I mentioned in a previous drinks, while his numbers for the dirty work of defending are anything but impressive, his positioning and anticipation stats are off the charts compared with any centre-back in Europe’s top five leagues, let alone the PL. He rarely needs to make last-ditch challenges, and when he does, he has the Rolls-Royce qualities to make them cleanly.
I would ask you to guess — without first looking at the answer in the next paragraph — how often Saliba and Gabriel foul on average.
The answer is 0.8 of a foul every 90 minutes. That is remarkable given the intensity and physicality of the Premier League. Even our most carded players, Jurrien Timber, Ricardo Calafiori and Viktor Gyökeres, all with five yellows last season, were committing only 1.4 fouls every 90 minutes on average.
That further suggests a systemic effect from team discipline and organisation. Control of the ball makes players less likely to commit fouls, and even less likely to commit the desperate fouls that result in cards. We got a yellow for every 7.66 fouls last season, down from every 5.7 fouls in 2024-25
There are second-order dimensions to this. Our out-of-possession 4-4-2 midblock rarely exposes individual players. A study of all 20 PL teams, conducted after 10 games last season and dividing the defensive third into ten zones, found that we were the only team to foul below the league average in all ten.
Another is our high defensive line when in possession. Most of our fouls are committed near the halfway line. In the Palace home game, all six of our fouls were committed in the Palace half. One benefit of fouling high up the pitch is that referees view such fouls as less serious offences and are less likely to reach for their cards. Another point is that free kicks conceded in the middle third are not in direct shooting range.
Paolo Maldini, who would feature in many all-time XIs at centre-back, once said that if he had to make a tackle, it was because he had already made a mistake. Artetaball is built on avoiding mistakes, in the sense of avoiding jeopardy.
We now have a mature, disciplined team that is confident in its tactical organisation. It no longer fouls in the most dangerous areas out of desperation, but rather where it is tactically most effective. The foul count hasn’t declined, but the card count has as a result.
Nice work, Ned.
One point though. You posit that one of the reasons we suffered fewer cards last season is our high line, meaning any fouls are committed further away from goal which acts as a mitigating factor in the card decision. However in past seasons, we saw both Lewis-Skelly and Saliba sent off for fouls – in MLS case not far outside our own box – stifling an incipient attack and disingenuously retroactively stated to be for violent play, quite ridiculously. To my mind this makes the “randomness” – or sheer whim of any given referee- the decisive factor. I fear that looking for refereeing consistency is an Sisyphean task. If only we could buy Rodri who is seemingly allowed to foul anywhere in the pitch, at will, with little or no comeback.
Thanks Ned, I shall peruse at length but you’ve already shocked me in the
third paragraph with the revelation that journalism was once honest and
thoughtful! Shurely shome mishtake 😃😃
When I asked. Ned if he would be willing to tackle the subject of discipline I knew he would produce his usual meticulously researched piece but this analysis surpasses what any of us could have anticipated. It is an impeccable piece of work and the stats are fascinating
It is interesting that the two best teams commit the least fouls . Is this what one would expect or is it as the conspiracy theorists would have you believe that we are favoured by PGMOL ( oh yeah!) .
Arteta has clearly tried to instil sensible behaviours in the squad after last season . The one issue is referee bias . Is there a reason why Michael Oliver treats Manchester City so leniently as supposed to Arsenal ? The two sendings off at Molineux ( MLS and Martinelli ) were extraordinary and one wonders if any other team has suffered an equivalent?
Watching Saliba against Senegal he is an incredibly sophisticated defender and his anticipation of danger is remarkable.
Superb work Ned thanks so much
Remarkable work, Ned – and brilliantly illustrated with your selection of graphs. Not just reported figures either but interesting conclusions on why our improvements have occurred notwithstanding CER’s points above. I do think the ‘sight test’ – I have no actual data to support it – would tell you that some referees, let’s say manage their bias to harm us more and our main rivals less.
The point about organisation reducing the need for desperation is a good one. When Sol Campbell first joined us from Tottenham I was amazed – and quite impressed – at the number of times he had to make last ditch, sliding tackles to rescue situations – probably a habit acquired of necessity through playing for the Spuds for so long. It was something he gradually had to do less of playing with better organised players.
Great piece.
One other small point – I believe PGMOL rebranded itself last summer to PGMO. It seems a bit of a liberty cos wherever they stick the word in their title they should definitely have to declare themselves as ‘limited’.
Thanks Ned, an excellent and a good explanation of why our yellow card tally is down.
Foul from the front has been something I heard a few seasons in connection with C130y
and there’s no denying the logic.
I do wonder what is the point of the KMI panel, I suppose if they all agree on something it’s does tell us the call was good or bad but then most of us who have watched the odd game or two already know a good decision, a 50-50 call and a bad decision when we see one. Hmmmm, why would anyone want a toothless distraction that signifies nothing?
Matt – because you have to be seen to have the means to do something – even if you never do. Completely pointless.
Jesus took off his shirt? I would prefer to see a video of that rather than a yellow bar in a bar graph but other than that I have nothing in criticize in your excellent representation Ned of our treatment this season by the referees. Perhaps they were more lenient to us than they often have been and if so we can only hope for more of the same. If only the injury gods would cooperate similarly.
Thanks all. An interesting topic to research. Being asked to step back and take a long-term comparative view flushed out some instructive perspectives.
CER@1: Fair point. Refs will card professional fouls in the middle of the pitch that prevent a breakaway (and they should). However, I will note that MLS’s card (for an offence in which he must have been closer to the neighbouring postcode than the Wolves’ goal) was overturned on appeal, leaving Saliba’s as the exception that proves the rule.
TTG@3: Dominating possession might be the relevant factor for the best teams. If you have the ball, there is less risk of committing a foul trying to get it back.
Re: Saliba. It looked like Deschamps had him playing much deeper than Arteta does, almost as a sweeper. Deschamps usually has the French defence playing with a high back line of four, so his use of Saliba in the Senegal game might have been a tactical one-off. Regardless, Saliba was still as unflappable and in control as ever whenever danger threatened.
Fascinating analysis Ned. Most informative and enjoyable. Grazie mille!
Interesting to note two PSG players are surprised that MLS is not in the England squad. I don’t know who is covering left back and midfield but he’s bound to be shit.
Might watch the England game tonight. So far I haven’t seen a single game due to the time it’s on, the lack of interest in who is playing or having something better to do like sleeping or scrolling through Vinted.
England may be winning but that is about it. Keeper to a defender who can’t control it back to the keeper and hoof. And repeat. Where is the speed of passing, control and movement?
I know it is only the first game, but I don’t think any of the fancied teams will be quaking in their boots after that England performance.
I blame that Alf Ramsey bloke, bloody hippy
Didn’t see the game but England supporters shouldn’t be too down
as the best team in the group stage rarely wins, though that is just a
feeling and I have no evidence….
More than slightly baffled by the responses to England’s win on here. We scored three great goals (and a penalty). Arsenal players played well, with Noni producing a great performance, Declan being Declan and Saka having a highly effective cameo to assist Rashford’s great finish (I can think of worse solutions for our left wing than Rashford).
Yes, the defence was far below what we are used to watching and Pickford made me nervous every time the ball went near him. The selection of Stones over Guehi wasa mistake and unlikely to be repeated. But the way we started the second half was thrilling. The incredible Bellingham looked unplayable.
Onwards!
I hold my hands up to say it improved in the second half but the first half was really clumsy. The goal kick to the keeper and then a pass left to someone with no control and then a rushed over hit pass foward to be intercepted. I presume they have some skill in their lockers but nerves seemed to be the order of the day. Croatia were poor as was our defence.
SP @17. I guess my glass is half full with that stunning attacking, yours is half empty due to the defending. Each to their own!
Nice one, Ned. A fascinating piece. I’m not much of a data guy, but I appreciate it hugely when it is laid out clearly and used as a basis for conclusions that I can understand!
I’m with Countryman on England, in that I’m much keener to focus on the positives than the negatives. Lots there we can build on. And, for the first time in a very long time, watching us play a match at a major championships was actually FUN! I’m all for it.
I’m very much in C100’s camp . We played top 20 side in Croatia and should have won more easily but we were very creative .I’d start Guehi and wouldn’t start Gordon but if we can tighten the defence we could go a long way . Very impressed with Tuchel’s mindset
The Observer describes” England as “exhilarating “
https://newsroom.observer.co.uk/cr/AQjcjBUQi54kGJGsm1Iw-L-RBGzvzSK2KiPTA_qONHTinFRvtKg-aOO4qRbmfuCJax8x
Clery agrees with the glass half-full view.
Thanks Ned, Clery was as enjoyable as ever.
Our first game of the season is at home against Coventry on Friday 21 August at 8pm.
Hopefully a shorts and shirt day and I can wear my new champions T-shirt!
Premier league fixtures in full (obviously will be changed for tv)
Thanks C100, be nice to ‘welcome’ Lampard back with
a sound thrashing 😂
Anybody out there? We’re in the middle of a World Cup and our club’s fixtures are out but (with certain honourable exceptions) it’s radio silence!
I agree with C100
It’s very quiet given that we’ve just won the league, almost won Big Ears , it’s in the middle of the World Cup and the fixtures are out . Are there people out there who are shy about making comments ? If so please don’t be, we need much more interaction than we are having
Lurks (studiously) as a suppoyof the Premier League Champions. Even though as I suspect that may not be enough to satisfy the most unsatisfiable among us. Not to label anybody in particular as unsatisfiable of course. Have we signed anybody yet?
suppoyof = supporter of (in the above drink)
Need I spell it out for you, the Premier League Champions being Arsenal.
A-R-S-E-N-A-L
.
.
.
Otherwise known as Arsenal.
If we really wanted to have more interaction we should probably drink more beer. 🍺
Spots TTG and c100 in the penalty area so sends in a floater to see which one can jump the highest
bt8. A noble run. From the evidence of The Oval on Wednesday neither of us are much good at leaping. However TTG has the bigger hat (a rather noble Panama).
The US team are doing you proud in the WC. Currently winning 2-0.
In weather matters, it is, I can report, bloody hot back here in Blighty. 32C by the river in Ely where my lovely wife and I spent a very pleasant afternoon. Afternoon tea may have been involved. Taken Cornish style, jam on the scone first, followed by the cream. We will have no truck with Devonians.
Come on you Scots. Having their impact on Boston.
https://bsky.app/profile/nytimes.com/post/3mooavszug52h
It is indeed very hot by UK standards.
I have been at the Test match with sun blazing down on me all day.
Drink has been taken so it will be touch and go if 8 make it through the Scotland game . The6 often say it’s up to the team to stir the crowd . Well here it’s up to the teams to keep this member of the crowd awake
So the question of the day is, why was Alisson not wearing his usual leggings in Brazil’s game against Haiti? I don’t think I have seen his bare knees before. He also appears to have a case of the thin legs, as they used to say in The Goon Show.
C100@35: I thought US v Australia was a poor game by the standards of this World Cup, and the tetchiest yet. The US team is technically much better than Australia, but let itself get drawn into a physical game instead.
There had been much build-up of Folarin Balogun in the media over here before the game. I thought he showed mostly why he couldn’t nail down a place with us or at Palace. There was also a cameo appearance from another of our old boys, Auston Trusty, who is now with Celtic. David Ospina is in the Colombia squad, too.
I like the look of Morocco’s Ayyoub Bouaddi. He is a space magnet, always a sign of a top midfielder.
C100@36: Jam first, cream on top is de rigeur — the cream clotted and the jam strawberry. Kudos for keeping up standards.
There is some tenuous scholarship to suggest that 10th-century monks on the Devon/Cornwall border created the proto-cream tea, feeding travellers with clowted (ie, clotted) cream and honey or a mix of honey and berries on bread, probably made with rye wheat. They would have been a century too early for anything that would be recognisable today as jam and nearly half a millennium early for scones, which apparently were invented in the 1500s by those of the Scottish persuasion.
I am impressed that Ospina is still playing though I suppose goalies do it longer matron!
I’m afraid I’ve nothing else to add to the World Cup conversation other than is it
over yet 😃
The fixture list looks ok, a few tricky away matches to start but that’s better
than having them at the end of the season, and a reasonable Xmas / New Year
rush. I was chatting with my son about next season and his feeling was he’s
not so bothered about the PL now, but wants that first CL.
I feel the same at the moment but who knows once the season starts
Excellent interview with David Raya
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2026/jun/20/david-raya-when-you-lose-a-champions-league-final-it-destroys-you-inside
We seem to be getting tonked at cricket, I am trying to find
it in my heart not to blame C100 and TTG for this lamentable turn
around from the 1st test.
Matt
It’s nothing to do with me but C100
must bear his share of responsibility for retiring thirty years too early . No way would he let 22 byes through in one innings . And he would have stood up
to Jofra Archer ! # Retired too soon
I stood up to that Fred Truman once. After the third leg side stumping he waved me back, saying I made him look medium paced.
Odegaard vs Gyokeres tonight. I’ll be watching.
Ignore that. Mixing up my Holland and Norway.
C100@45: Thanks for that link. It was a very revealing read. Raya’s comments about how formative going to lower-league football from a top-tier team’s academy was for him echoed those Benny Blanco made in an interview a few years back. There is much more to loans than getting playing minutes, important though those are, in the making of a young player.
This 2023 article, published by Brentford, provides more background on David Raya’s upbringing, including why he is so good with his feet and what it takes to survive being a teenager in a foreign country 1,100 miles from home.
https://www.brentfordfc.com/en/news/article/the-long-read-david-raya-630187
And well in for the half-ton, C100, even if that was a goal that trickled over the line after bouncing off your backside.
As a (very) young boy, I saw Frank Tyson bowl at Lord’s in his final season in county cricket. Keith Andrew stood so far back he might as well have taken a seat in the pavilion.
I see one of our silver members is on the BBC panel for Holland v Sweden tonight.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>