…(Or, a glimpse into the dizzying possibilities)
If you are theologically inclined to read the language of chance, you may find it mildly disconcerting to note that the previewer of the seasonal curtain-raiser happens to be the same “sell your soul to the devil for what goes around as wisdom” chap who wrote that stridently optimistic preview to our last match of the 25-26 season, the Champions League Final. I apologize for invoking the unhappy memories. And I promise you that despite whatever misgivings you might now be feeling (if any at all), our beloved Arsenal will undoubtedly make this season as memorable, if not more, to us as the last one.
How do I know, you ask? Let us just give the devil its due. “Time is the essence/Time is the season/Time ain’t no reason/Got no time to slow.”
I am sure Mikel Arteta and his meticulously constructed coaching team of diverse manifold talents – from the very prosaic (looking at you, Señor Heinze, respectfully) to the kabbalistically esoteric (not looking at anyone, my eyes fixed to the ground) – must also have got no time to slow. The progressively vaporous world of footballing discourses (and meta-discourses: “did the pundit X actually say blah blah about the comments of the ex-footballer Y who was simply responding to a question from his old club-mate Z who thought he was asked to articulate the viewpoint of their old manager alpha-beta-gamma …) may fixate on the mortal combat of transfer dealings, but the challenges and excitements of the most consequential actions before the start of the football season, namely preparing the team for the gruelling nine months of nonstop competitive actions at the very highest level, are thankfully handled away from the never-ending storm of opinions.
Most of Arsenal’s players have returned to the club, by now, and outward signs of fitness notwithstanding, many of them are expectedly still recovering from their travels and travails through what must have appeared to them a singularly surreal summer. We are fortunate to have a group of players so single-mindedly and passionately connected to the success of their collective that many of them seemed to have even cut short their well-earned rests in their eagerness to return. Fortunate is probably not the right word, for this is not a whim of fate but consequence of a thoughtful, meticulous squad building and subsequently nurturing a culture of excellence and camaraderie. The Premier League season opens in a week, which would likely give us just enough time to get a group of 15-16 first team players to be in close to their peak condition to see us through the first few weeks while the rest of the team continue the fine-tuning, keeping their involvement from the bench yet to a minimum. Those players (un)fortunate enough to miss out on the summer workouts, and hence the first ones to return to pre-season are the likeliest to be in that group of primary first team players: Mosquera, Calafiori, MLS, Nwaneri, Dowman, Tzolis. Players like Havertz, Hincapié, Gyökeres who returned relatively early enough should also be close enough to full fitness.
I thought that the minutes of the other players – returning late after a well-earned break: Ødegaard, Martinelli, Guimarães et al. – were managed efficiently through the pre-season calendar, and in the final couple of matches to be played before the Community Shield they all looked sharp.
I understand that for some followers of English football, the Community Shield doesn’t at all register with any importance, and is treated as an easily dispensable amuse-bouche. Given the qualifying criteria to participate in this most traditional of curtain-raisers, it is not at all surprising that for the players and supporters alike for most clubs in English football it is almost always inconsequential.
But we are, of course, not like most clubs. Arsenal has the second most participation and trophy winning record in the FA Community Shield, renamed from the Charity Shield which is the name still colloquially used, and which had evolved from the old Sheriff of London Charity Shield which was formalized as a Charity Shield in 1908, with the inaugural version being won by the then football league winner, Manchester United, against the Southern League Champions, QPR, – a 4-0 victory in the replay following an 1-1 draw the first time around. That remains the only occasion when a replay was played to decide the winner.
Manchester United leads the participation and winning statistics: 31 and 21, respectively. We are positioned second in winning and third in appearances: 17 and 24. In terms of outright win (i.e., the shield not shared, as prior to 1993 penalty shoot-outs were not used to determine the winner in the case of a draw) Arsenal with 16, is just one shy of Manchester United’s 17. Our last win came in 2023 when as the PL runners-up of the 22-23 season, we defeated the league and FA cup champions Manchester City – a 4-1 penalty shoot out victory following a 1-1 draw. Before the penalty shoot out, one Leo Trossard came off the bench at the 75th minute to score our equalizer in injury time. While his unique ability to contribute with match-defining goals and assists from the bench will be very much missed, the pre-season performances from Cristos Tzolis have been reassuring and we should expect him to be as influential, if not more, as Leo was.
This will be Mikel’s third Community Shield as Arsenal manager, before 2023 we won it with him at the helm in 2020, following our FA Cup win in his first year as Arsenal head coach. Another penalty win (5-4) following an 1-1 draw, this time the scorer being the peerless (at Wembley) Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. From that 2020 match-day team we have Saka, Reiss Nelson and Saliba still at Arsenal – though Wilo was subsequently left out of the first team squad for the first half of the season, and then sent back out to France to continue his educational loan spells after the Community Shield.
Most players from the 2023 final starting eleven are still in the club, and form the core of the team: White, Saliba, Gabriel, Timber, Rice, Saka, Martinelli, Ødegaard, Havertz. Comparing the substitute bench of that day to the players that have been added since that year offers a stark demonstration of how single-mindedly we have continued to raise the level of the team.
While the last couple of times under Mikel Arteta we had started this match as the underdogs, we should be the favorites going in this time around. Our opponents still have a great squad of gifted players (while I won’t repeat my Nasreddin story this time, I choose also not talk about the squad) but they will be under a brand new manager and coaching staff after a decade of record-breaking success under the most decorated manager in the history of European football. But some might say that a jolt of new energy and the inherent unpredictability of newer ideas may actually make them a greater threat in a one-off match.
Our record in the Community Shield in this millennia has been rather impressive: wins in 2002, 2004, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2020, 2023 with 2005 being the only disappointment. While a win in the Community Shield doesn’t really present any clear indication (and cannot be shown to have any statistical correlation with the chance of winning the league that season) of how the season will unfold, a win is a win, a trophy is a trophy, and a celebration remains a celebration. Going into the season with a positive mood, the joyful spirit of last season’s success amplified by the promises of headier days ahead, and looking forward eagerly to Arsenal again (hopefully) dominating in England and Europe.
Arteta has used the entirety of his available first team squad and many academy graduates (some with impressively mature performances) for the pre-season matches. While the Community Shield starting eleven is likely not going to be the starting eleven for the season opener against Coventry City next Friday – for example, I expect Rice and Saka to be much closer to match fitness by then and won’t expect them to start this Sunday, and – it will contain first-team contenders. If you see a sixteen year old being included in that list of first-team contenders, it is simply because he is now one.
This is my best guess for the starting eleven. With some combination of Guimarães, Martinelli, Hincapié, Nwaneri, Zubimendi, Merino, Rice, Saka, Madueke, Jesus, Salmon and Kepa (though I would prefer to see Meslier) on the bench.
Raya
White – Mosquera – Gabriel – Calafiori
Ødegaard – Lewis-Skelly – Havertz
Dowman – Gyökeres – Tzolis
I am sure you will all empathize with me if I don’t want a penalty shoot out for a trophy. Not just yet. So a controlled, enjoyable 3-1 normal time win will do perfectly.
Come on Arsenal!
Thanks Dr F – some history of the Charity / Community Shield I was unaware of. And a very, possibly fittingly, charitable view on the Guardiola era at Middle Eastlands, namely –
“a decade of record-breaking success under the most decorated manager in the history of European football.” The first part of your tribute can’t, in essence, be debated but I prefer to hope that Guardiola will eventually become the most asterisked out manager in the history of European football. One day …. perhaps.
The revelation of our pre-season for me has been the sequence of performances from another Hale End product – the 16 year old Marli Salmon. What a prospect. So many shades of Saliba already in his defending and his confidence in playing out from the back is quite unreal at his age. Call me over excited but against Como I started to wonder if we have a potential Pirlo in our ranks, such was his passing accuracy and variety.
Anyway, thanks for not dwelling on the Mancy squad and selection – they do have a frightening array of forward talent – ooops, sorry !
Come on you Reds !
Thanks Dr F, great stuff as ever.
To be honest I do think most of the starting XI today will start
next against Coventry as it’ll only be 5 days later and I’m
curious to see who plays in CM and on the left and right wings.
A cerulean pearl of a preview, Dr F., to raise the curtain on a season we all hope will bring copious silverware by the time it is lowered again at the Estadio Metropolitano in Madrid next June. Gutting the soft white underbelly of the financially doped is as good a place as any to start.
As a historical footnote, the Sheriff of London who conceived the Sheriff of London Charity Shield was Sir Thomas Dewar, better remembered as a whisky distiller. The early matches (in the late 1890s) pitted the leading professional club against the leading amateur team.
Attention Predictathon players: Entry forms for the new season’s contest should have arrived in your mailbox if you participated last time.
If you weren’t in last year but would like to try to dethrone our back-to-back champion, Potsticker, by predicting the final 2026-27 Premier League table from 1 to 20, you can download the entry blank here. Rules of the game are here.
Return it to ghfpredict AT yahoo.com no later than one hour before the new season starts, i.e., by 7 pm UK time on Friday, August 21.
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Just done my predictathon entry. Got to say, with so many new managers, it’s tough this year!
Thanks, C100.
Four entries received so far — and four different picks for the Tin Tack award.
As with the Tin Tack award, so with GHF authors – “Form is temporary, class is permanent”. Well played Dr F; I hope to read many more like this between now and May.
One tiny thing though – I do question my fitness for the coming season; I’m not certain that two-and-a-half months has been sufficient for me to recover from an exhausting 2025-26.
COYG
Dr F
Erudition, detail and insight . A great combination.Thankyou
I am not very engaged with this game but obviously hope we will win. I will be at Lords tomorrow afternoon
A great preview to the season opener, Dr F. A most enjoyable read too. Let’s do this!
PG@7: With half the managers in the PL being new to their clubs, form is not so much temporary as nonexistent.
@7 Pangloss
yeah, that was one tough season.
I’ll be happy with a steady start, stay in touch
with the leaders and then crush them all 2nd
half of the season 😃
Thanks everyone for the kind words!
@Ned —loved “cerulean pearl”. No reference ever gets past you. 🙂
I was looking at the teams from our last few community shield appearances and noticed that Reiss Nelson was present in the last four of them all the way to the 2017 edition!
Looking forward to an enjoyable performance and hopefully a well-deserved victory!
Come on Arsenal!
Thanks Doc
2-0 will do fine for me with no injuries. Merino on the scoresheet.
UTA
Excellent preview to get this new season underway, Dr F. I’d choose Bruno to start in midfield and move Kai to centre forward ahead of Victor, but I’m sure we’ll see all three of them during the 90 minutes.
And I’m with Trev on the asterisks.
Predictathon decisions weighing heavily under the potential of a second successive season in the drop zone.
Many thanks Dr F for a superb preview as usual. With the World Cup messing up the pre-season preparedness it’s not possible to fully assess our prospects against a Pep-less City.
Hoping for a good run out for all those in need and no injuries to carry forward.
COYRRR
I see that formerly of this parish Emi Martinez is off to Juve for a paltry £7m. Now I know he’s 34 but he’s a World Cup winner and still an excellent goalkeeper (he’s 20 times better than Kepa). Also goalkeepers keep going well into their late 30s. . I also know that’s he’s an annoying immature prat but that doesn’t affect his goalkeeping.
Now the general consensus is that we are bad sellers, the current case in point being an offer of £40m for Martinelli. But it seems to me that most clubs are at the moment. The exception of course, is Manchester City who achieve very high selling prices. Makes you wonder if there is some creative accounting going on.
I read that Villa are trying to sign the Japanese goalkeeper,
Zion Suzuki, from Parma to replace Martinez. Hope so as I don’t
rate Suzuki and it will weaken them I think.
Very fair crack at the team from Dr F
But Bruno starts in midfield, Kai at CF
and Noni instead of Max on the right
Very strong bench too, minus only Saliba and Timber.
No place for Jesus, Vieira and Nelson as expected I think
But not for Gabi M either, which I didn’t expect
I forgot Nwaneri who doesn’t make the bench either.
Anyway…..
CoYGS!!
Nir did I, OM. Nwaneri looks like he’s not on the bus either.
Now that’s what I call a fast start!
Get in Cala and nice ball from MLS.
2-0 up and good value for it, we look a little sharper
at this stage
Oh, blatant dive from Cala.
And then iffy defending, good save Raya, good
foot-in MLS, and good block Ben in quick succession.
Oh Cala, should be 3-0 but still 2-0
Our midfield looking excellent. We’re playing nice and quickly. Bruno making a difference but Myles had an excellent half.
Haven’t watched the Sheriff of London Charity Shield for a few years
now but quite enjoying this one.
Really good first half. Has taken me by surprise. Lovely football, getting the ball forward QUICKLY, How good is that to see?
Arsenal fans singing “sacked in the morning” to Maresca after his first 45 minutes as City coach. 🥰
Rice on? Is that necessary?
What a Goal for 3
Ode 3-0, sacked in the morning seems fair 😂😂
Love the way Martinelli sat Donnarumma down for his goal. Delicious.
Saka on now too, it’s getting a bit disjointed as C130y have made
several changes too.
Kai looks tired, and I think I’d give Vic a run now.
Fans singing the Rocky song.
Bloody hell, Arsenal. What do you think you were doing? I now have to completely overhaul my FPL team and Predictathon entry.
C100@16: £40 million for Martinelli would be a tad, if only a tad, above his fair market value according to the folks who get richly paid for assessing these things. On the other hand, Villa are getting stitched up a treat if Juve pays only £7m for Martinez, even allowing for the immature prat discount.
Ode gets the player of the match award, nice goal too.
Good day for him, and for MLS. Ben played well
I thought and Tzolis was good going forward.
That, my friends, was a real statement victory.
>>>>>>>>>>>>