By North Bank Ned
And so the Stadium of Stone, where we entertain our now second-nearest and only slightly less disliked Premier League neighbours on Sunday afternoon.
The Clearlake/Bohley consortium’s expensively assembled inventory of footballers arrives with two high-scoring victories to their name, pointing to both the potency of their attack and the vulnerability of their defence.
We have had extensive discussion in this fine establishment about BlueCo’s business model. Suffice it to say that, whatever the nuances of the various interpretations advanced, there is agreement that Bridgenomics is built on precarious foundations.
Perhaps the wheel has come full circle. The Mears brothers, Gus and Joe — older ‘holics will recognise the family name — had acquired the lease on Stamford Bridge in 1904, intending to stage professional football.
Fulham turned down the brothers’ offer to move up the road as their tenants. Henry Norris, then Fulham’s chairman and later to be ours, was a property developer who could smell a bad deal a mile off — or, in this case, 1.6 miles off.
So Gus and Joe splashed the cash to acquire professionals wholesale and create an insta-team, buying their way into the Football League as the only club to join without having played a game of football.
The apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.
Xabi Alonso
Arteta’s old friend Xabi Alonso may prove Bohley’s value acquisition this season, although given the rapid turnover in the Chelsea manager’s chair, what guarantee is there that he will last the season?
Being Basque lends a gloss to any PL manager’s reputation these days, and having played youth football for Antiguoko appears to be de rigueur. Nonetheless, the 44-year-old Alonso is regarded as one of the outstanding managers of his generation, even if that reputation rests on one spectacular season with Bayer Leverkusen.
His playing career was storied, winning European championships and a World Cup with Spain, as well as titles and cups with Liverpool, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich. On my unscientific theory that all great managers are seeking redemption for an unrealised playing ambition, it is difficult to see what that might be for Alonso.
His coaching career began with Real Madrid’s U-14s. He returned to the Basque Country in 2019 to take over the team where, two decades earlier, he had started his senior playing career, Real Sociedad’s B team. Having secured promotion in his second season, he moved to the Bundesliga midway through the 2022-23 season. In his first full season at Bayer Leverkusen, he achieved an unprecedented undefeated domestic double. His sole loss in 53 games was the Europa League final.
His team was built around the nous of a thirty-something Granit Xhaka and the attacking flair of a young Florian Wirtz, though let us not forget that our very own Piero Hincapié made 43 appearances. Xhaka and another 30-year-old, Jonas Hofmann, were bought ahead of the season to add experience to a mostly young squad. Rinse and repeat at Chelsea with another of our old boys, Danny Welbeck, and Jordan Henderson.
After two and a half seasons in North Rhine-Westphalia, Alonso decamped to another of his old clubs, Real Madrid, to succeed Carlo Ancelotti. After seven months of failing to get Florentino Pérez’s ego-driven Galácticos to knuckle down to his technical tactics, in which wing-backs and aggressive pressing rather than star forwards and flair were the attacking fulcrum, he was given the old tin tack.
Alonso’s system blends the two dominant tactical philosophies, Pep-like positional structure and the unpredictability of relational play, tied together with an early-De Zerbi-like patient build-up. It uses a 3-2-5 structure that invites pressure to open up space in midfield from which to launch rapid attacks. When defending, the shape shifts into a 5-4-1 mid-block.
Unlike in Madrid, at Leverkusen, Alonso had two exceptional wingbacks, Alejandro Grimaldo and Jeremie Frimpong. Good defenders, they also provided the attacking verticality, tempo and width to stretch opposing defences and enable the rotations and overloads on both sides of the pitch that gave his attack its unpredictability.
At Chelsea, Alonso is pragmatically adapting to the fact that he doesn’t have two comparable wing-backs or 8s, but he does have two elite 10s in Morgan Rogers and Cole Palmer. His underlying approach remains the same, but the emphasis has shifted. The rotations and overloads now aim to create space in the inside channels for the two Englishmen to exploit where they can do the most damage.
The oddity is that, unlike his possession-dominant Leverkusen and Real Madrid, Alonso’s Chelsea had only 38% possession against Fulham and 25% against Brighton.
The opposition
Our old boy, Emi Martinez, newly arrived from Villa, will be between the sticks, with the hapless Robert Sánchez already loaned out to Como. In front of him will likely be an Anglo-French back three of Wesley Fofana, Maxence Lacroix, a €60.7 million summer signing from Palace, and Levi Colwill.
Reece James and Moises Caicedo would be the first-choice central midfielders, although James is still working his way back to full fitness and Caicedo is an injury doubt. Malo Gusto and Romeo Lavia may again deputise, now that the unlikeable Enzo Fernandez has been sold to Man City. Marc Cucurella would have been tailor-made for Alonso’s system but had already been sold to Real Madrid (have the Chavs no one detestable left?)
I don’t know whether Alonso has not settled on his best wingback pairing yet, or simply has not been able to field it.
Marco Palestra, who arrived in the summer from Atalanta for €57 million, and Pedro Neto would probably be first choice, but Palestra missed the first two league games through injury and will likely miss this one, too. Gusto and the young Dutchman Jorrel Hato started there against Fulham, with Pedro Neto, who is probably the weakest defensively, on the bench. Alonso switched to a 4-2-3-1 for the League Cup game against Luton, before reverting to a back three last weekend against Brighton. Pedro Neto came in for Gusto, who moved inside to replace James.
Alonso also has the 19-year-old Geovany Quenda, a €50 million summer acquisition from Sporting, and the Spaniard Pep Chavarría, a €19 million summer arrival from Rayo Vallecano, as options. Both may figure more prominently as the season progresses.
The front three pick themselves: Palmer, Rogers and Joao Pedro.
The Arsenal
In his pre-match presser, Arteta teased the return of Jurrien Timber. In reality, he will perm two of Benny Blanco, Ezri Konsa and Cristhian Mosquera, if fit, to start on the right side of the defence.
His other selection questions will be in midfield. Key to success will be shackling Rogers and Palmer, cutting off Joao Pedro’s supply, and preventing an early goal, which gave Alonso’s side momentum against Fulham and Brighton. I expect us to lay down a heavy blanket of control from the outset.
That could mean Eze or Merino starting, and, if fit, Bruno G, at the expense of MLS and Tzolis. Conversely, Arteta may want Saka and Tzolis to peg back Alonzo’s wing-backs to blunt the triangles spearheaded by Palmer and Rogers, or to exploit the Achilles’ heel of 3-4-3, namely the space behind the wing-backs when they push high and wide. My punt:
Raya
White – Konsa – Gabriel – Calafiori
Rice – MLS
Saka – Ødegaard – Eze
Havertz
The Chelsea defence looks porous enough that we can score one or two, especially if Martinez can demonstrate his knack for letting in at least one against us that he should really stop; 2-1 to the team in red and white, extending our undefeated run in the league against Chelsea to ten games and our unbeaten run in London derbies to 16, while providing a firm reminder that champions play the way champions want.
Enjoy the game, ‘holics, near and far.
Terrific preview Ned setting up what should be an engrossing game nicely . I suspect Konsa will start and a start for Bruno would not surprise me but I agree Eze will start off the left
My Chelsea contacts have grown used to
losing to us and long may this continue. I’m
going to echo your 2-1 with Havertz and Saka getting our goals
Great stuff Ned, agree with your team except I think Tzolis will start
and your score line except I think one more goal and 3-1 to The Arsenal.
I watched some of the Brighton and thought we’d beat the Chavs again
as I watched it. Perhaps the possession % can be explained by them simply
not being very good at winning the ball back 😃
Regardless, our defence isn’t Brighton or Fulham’s and as we have seen before
Palmer and Rogers can be shackled after the Chavs midfield is dominated, though
the domination after the shackling is usually the way of things or so I’m told.
Thanks Ned for an interesting preview.
Games against Chelsea are usually a bit tens so I’m hoping an early goal can settle the nerves. 2-0 seems right to me.
UTA
A very informative and well-analyzed preview Ned, thank you! About the prominence of Basque coaches, when asked Mikel alluded to the resilience and determination gained in their upbringing in what was a very difficult time period in the region.
Your team looks good. However, if we are starting Eze on the left wing maybe Hincapié complements him better on the fullback role? Eze drifts inside and good at occupying the half-spaces, Ricky being more positionally maverick he probably works better to a more traditional winger in Tzolis? On the other hand, Eze and Calafiori did combine well for the goal in the last match… Will the Wednesday away match at Napoli influence decisions about some rotations?
Raya
White-Konsa-Gabriel-Hincapié
Ødegaard-Rice-Guimarães
Saka-Havertz-Eze
While any win will do, why not keep the good habit of clean sheets? A 2-0 home win will be perfect.
Come on Arsenal!
And thank you everyone for the kind words about the Villa report.
Cheers Ned!
Come on though, plenty of detestable players left. I would say all of them, on principle, though I am annoyed at having to dislike Welbz.
I was agreeing with your line-up, although Dr F’s post reminded me that Hincapié may indeed be a more sensible choice behind Eze for a start.
Either way, let’s smash that Bus Stop! (Well it’s a home match, but you know what I mean…).
It’s very rare that I read one of GHF’s previews and don’t learn something new and this one is no exception, Ned. Entertaining, informative and thought provoking. Probably because of a hangover from the Dogba years, I still find myself feeling somewhat nervous in anticipating any forthcoming game against the boys at the bus stop. The addition of the names Alonso and Lavia haven’t helped to dispel those feelings. I’d hoped to see both in red and white in days gone down.
I’m persuaded however that our defensive nouse ought to be sufficient to mitigate Chel$ki’s attacking threat and that our front five will create sufficiently to rupture their porous hindquarters. In that regard, a 2-1 home win looks like a fairly reasonable bet.
Now that Victor can wear the number 9 shirt, perhaps we’ll see him take the field at some stage today? I do hope that he will shine brightly in his second season at the club. Will we ever see both Hincapie and Calafiori on the field on our left at the same time I wonder?
I have the great good fortune to be sitting at the feet of the Sage of Kent today. TTG and I are a combo that hasn’t witnessed any kind of reverse for the Arsenal when present and long may that continue.
Thanks Ned for another superb informative & interesting preview. I, like others here, have bad memories of the Mourinho era domination which has only just begun to be expunged.
Hoping that we expose a false expectation of an Alonso masterclass and we send them back to the bus stop firmly with their tales between their legs. A win with any scoreline will do very nicelyl.
COYRRR
The ladies have a new star. 19 year old Lisa Baum has just scored an absolute golazo against Brighton. A mazy run from midfield, shrugging off several defenders, the unleashing an absolute thunder bastard into the roof of the net. What a start to the WSL.
Off to the Emirates, where 26 degree bright sunshine is forecast, in about 45minutes. Great preview Ned.
There are rumours that Declan Rice is injured or ill . He and Mosquera were not with the squad at their pre-match walk around .
Declan would be a miss today so I hope those rumours are wrong!
I was wondering about Mosquera’s fitness but anyway Konsa can start
I guess.
Enjoy the game gents!
Looks like rumours were unfounded: he starts.
(Although re-reading TTG’s post, he may still have been briedly indisposed and recovered, to be fair)
Yeah, good to see Declan there, the team is as predicted by Ned except Tzolis for Eze.
MLS keeping Zubi, Bruno and Merino out the starting XI, that is quite something
really.
Indeed Matt, strong bench if needed.
Raya
White, Gabriel, Konsa, Calafiori
Lewis-Skelly, Rice
Odegaard, Saka, Tzolis
Havertz
Bench: Arrizabalaga, Hincapie, Zubimendi, Merino, Guimaraes, Eze, Madueke, Dowman, Gyokeres.
And thanks for the kind words about the preview, all.
The bench is light on defenders. I had wondered if Marli Salmon might have been given a spot there, although it was difficult to know which World Cup star to drop to make room for him. 🙂
AMN can still score a goal it seems.
I’d expect Timber back on the bench for next week given his
recovery is going well but yeah we’re a bit short this week.
Mikel doesn’t share my optimism Marli is ready now it seems 😉
Great stuff as ever, Ned !
2-1 would be just fine – 3-1 a real pleasure.
Ainsley Maitland-Niles has just laser guided one into top bins to deny Man U a win at Everton . The smiling assassin strikes again.
Come on you Reds.
Caiceido is out for Chelsea. Should save us a few bruises 😉
hi all.
My mate has sorted out his Canal + problems, so I can watch the match(es)
Phew!
That would be exactly the start we didn’t want
Back level thanks to Kai, playing well enough I think
Came back well after the early goal,
All to play for 2nd half
Kai sticking it the Chavs again is so great 😀
Dear GHF,
It’s a pleasure being (a mostly silent though) member of this unique community. Every posts, articles, every comments are thoughtfull, informative, honest, kind and full of love for The Arsenal. Thank you! Really
Only one thing topping this, wacthing The Arsenal through the last 6 years. It is great time to be a proud Gooner.
COYG
It is a particularly great time and day to be a gooner
Las 🎉 hopefully everyone is enjoying a victory brew
And a nod to monks for calling the 2-1 win
It’s a pleasure to see you Las. Order yourself a drink on my tab.
Cheers Pangloss 🙂
A nice cup of Hedonist for The Campiones 🙂
Las
I reciprocate your good wishes .
I’m delighted to say that the Btm/ TTG combo has still not been present at the Emirates when we’ve dropped any points.
Today was an excellent Premier League derby and a deserved win for us .
Las, good to see you in. A chaser on the bar for you.
That my friends was a proper old school red blooded game with bags of skill, some lovely football and a soupçon of needle.
Loved it.
London is red.
It’s worth pointing out that Ned’s prediction was spot on including the Emi Martinez mistake . He really should have saved the Havertz goal
Wel done Ned !
TTG@32: Ned knows 🙂
But not as much as Predictathon players. The new leaderboard has been posted. For the third time in three matchweeks, we have a new frontrunner. Scores also improved a lot. Was yours one? You know where to find out…
It is also worth pointing out that the Ropey League is setting a blistering pace. The top third of the team managers are in roughly the top 5% of the more than 10.5 million players worldwide, and the top two-thirds are beating the global average. Impressive.
Thanks for your usual speedy work on the Predictathon, Ned !
Amazing to see the reaction of Rogers to being tripped yesterday after his team had fouled and shoved Arsenal players in the back all game. James is the Chelsea version of McGinn and had no footballing response to the rings that Odegaard ran round him all afternoon. One other question: how much have we missed a fit Havertz ?
Cheers, Trev. Rooney trying to drum up controversy over Gabriel not getting a red, too. Same old same old.
>>>>>>>>>>>>