Goonerholics Forever

And so to the Stadium of Stone. It has been a while. Memo to self: check with TTG whether anything significant happened in the meantime.

To a certain generation of ‘holics, our visitors on Saturday will forever be Dirty Leeds, from when we were scrapping with Don Revie’s side to be top dog in the early 1970s. Yet, even though this game will see second play fifth, Daniel Farke’s Leeds is of a different cut and still re-establishing itself in the Premier League.

After 16 turbulent years outside the top flight, Leeds returned for the 2020-21 season with Marco Bielsa’s high-octane football. Three seasons and several managers later, Sam Allardyce was officiating the last rites of relegation. 

The German Farke, who had taken Norwich up from the Championship twice and down once, took over that summer, a few days before the NFL’s San Francisco 49ers’ venture-capital arm took control of the club. As those of Scottish persuasion will know, 49ers Enterprises are also part of the controlling consortium at Glasgow Rangers. At Leeds, their minority investors include Red Bull, the company that turned a Thai energy drink you likely have never heard of, Krating Daeng, into a global brand.

Before last season, Farke brought in nine new players, all aged 25 to 28, to add the strength, size and experience his newly promoted side would need in the Premier League. For this season, he bought less extensively and spent the bulk of his money on two 23-year-olds. 

One was James Trafford, who arrived from Manchester City for £40 million, a record for an English goalkeeper. The other was centre-back Tarik Muharemović, the most prominent scion of that Balkan footballing family. He cost £30 million from Serie A’s Sassuolo. At the other end of the age scale, 29-year-old winger Harry Wilson was picked up from Fulham on a free.

Farke’s flip

Last season, with Leeds again in the relegation zone, Farke switched from a back four to a back three. The change turned Leeds’ fortunes around, and they finished in a relatively comfortable 14th place. 

Farke has stuck with a back three this season, arguing that Leeds’ play is not yet dominant enough to revert to a back four. Their 45.8% share of possession this season is the sixth-lowest in the league.

In away games, Farke tends to favour 3-4-2, though not consistently. I suspect we’ll see a flat 3-5-2 at the Ems to bolster some Brighton-inspired pressing and force us to attack wide. Either way, Leeds will defend compactly and be well-organised, although in his pre-match press conference, Farke insisted that parking the bus does not work against teams of our quality.

Leeds have conceded three goals so far, or 0.6 per game, the joint-fewest in the league. Yet their defence has been overperforming — or riding its luck. Their xG against averages 1.3 goals per game. No keeper in the league has made more saves than Trafford so far.

Dogged defending has mitigated some of the shortcomings of an attack reliant on going long and direct, as evidenced by seven goals in five games and only two big chances created per game; only four clubs have done worse.

Three of their seven goals have come from set pieces, the highest ratio in the league. If top-scorer Dominic Calvert-Lewin (3 goals) is shackled, it is difficult to see where their goals will come from, especially if Wilson is absent.

The opposition

Trafford, whose seemingly predestined journey to being England’s number one has had several false starts, should be between the sticks. 

A hamstring injury sidelines Leeds’ stalwart Wales defender Joe Rodon. Thus, the back line will likely consist of Nico Elvedi, a 30-year-old Swiss international acquired from Borussia Mönchengladbach in the summer, with Muharemović to his left and, to his right, Luton’s own James Justin, who arrived unheralded in 2025 from Leicester City but has established himself as a versatile ever-present.

In-form skipper Ethan Ampadu, another of the club’s Wales internationals — he played every minute of its four Nations League games, so is hopefully cream crackered — will anchor the midfield alongside either or both of Anton Stach, an Energiser Bunny who was recalled to Germany’s squad for the Nations League, and Japan’s Ao Tanaka. Tanaka would be the one to drop to the bench if Farke starts with four in midfield. 

Sweden’s Gabriel Gudmundsson should provide width on the left in either formation. Wilson would be the first choice for the opposite wing. However, he missed all of Wales’ Nations League games due to a quad injury and faces a late fitness test. With fellow Wales winger Daniel James again injured, Jayden Bogle will likely start if Wilson cannot. 

Calvert-Lewin will be up front. He was the league’s joint fourth-highest scorer last season with 14 goals, the same as our own Big Vik (a fifth of them against Leeds). Fine form in the second half of the season earned Calvert-Lewin a recall to the England squad, but his club form has been fitful this season. If Farke opts for a 3-5-2, Calvert-Lewin will likely be partnered by Swiss international Noah Okafor, whose move to West Yorkshire has revitalised a sputtering career in Serie A.

For his bench, Farke has the burly German striker Lukas Nmecha, who came up through the Man City Academy but was sold to Wolfsburg for €8 million as a 22-year-old in 2021. He can also call on Brenden Aaronson, the USA attacking midfielder who can’t quite force his way into Mauricio Pochettino’s starting XI and needs Farke to play 3-4-2-1 to have a chance of starting for his club.

Other attacking options include two wingers, the fitfully dangerous Italian, Wilfried Gnonto, now back from a loan spell at Fiorentina, and the promising Jean-Mattéo Bahoya, who is on loan from Eintracht Frankfurt and is being carefully blooded by Farke; he has played just one PL minute. Bahoya faces a late fitness test after straining his ankle while playing for France’s U-21s.

Farke is far less well covered defensively. DM Ilia Gruev and centre-back Jaka Bijol are working their way back to match fitness after injury. Both got plenty of minutes for their countries during the interlull, but neither is likely ready to start. That leaves mainly Melvin Bard, a left-back on loan from Nice. He was brought in on the transfer deadline after Rodon’s hammy went ping against Brentford. 

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The Arsenal

Three long weeks ago, our unbeaten start to the season ended jarringly at the Amex. In their pre-match press conferences, Arteta reflected on how the team’s identity fell apart, while Farke, though impressed by how Brighton’s pressing dismantled it, also noted that we could have won that game; we fluffed our key moments, whereas Brighton’s all went their way. 

Regardless of whether that game was just ‘an awfully bad day at the office’ (© Dino), re-establishing normal service on Saturday is non-negotiable.

Picking a starting XI is tricky, given the opacity over how much our injury list has shrunk from its peak of nine. William Saliba and Christos Tzolis are definitely out, and Kai Havertz and Ezri Konsa likely so. Of the walking wounded, Declan Rice is being carefully managed, but Max Dowman, Piero Hincapié, Cristhian Mosquera and Ben White are declared available. Up to a point, Lord Copper.

With half an eye on the midweek CL game against Lille, my guess is:

Raya
Timber, Mosquera, Gabriel, Calafiori
Rice, Lewis-Skelly
Saka, Ødegaard, Madueke
Gyökeres

Leeds are unbeaten this season, though they have won only two league games. We have won four and need to make it five on Saturday, and trust the Scousers keep C114y honest on Sunday, to return to the top of the league.

We were still at Highbury the last time we lost to Leeds at home in any competition. That was in 2003. Mark Viduka scored Leeds’ 89th-minute winner. A teenage James Milner was on their bench, and some venerable ‘holics had barely turned fifty.

We will likely spend much of the game battling to thread a path through Leeds’ defence, while remaining vulnerable to counter-attacks or set pieces. An early goal would settle nerves on and off the field. We won the corresponding fixture 5-0 last season. A 2-0 home win feels more like the order of the day this term.

Enjoy the game, ‘holics, near and far.