Turf Moor, where grit is said to prevail, will be the venue of this 25th fixture of Arsenal’s worst Premier League season in recent memory. Mikel Arteta’s 10th placed side travel to 13th placed Burnley with only goal differential separating them. The two clubs are level on 30 points, the hosts having won three more but drawn nine fewer matches than the north Londoners. The Sunday kickoff increases the pressure on both clubs to keep pace with three other clubs on 30 points (Newcastle, Everton, Crystal Palace) who may have picked up points on Saturday. Arsenal have not won in the Premier League since New Year’s Day when they kept a clean sheet at home against Manchester United, but they drew their three other league fixtures in January. February brings hope that Arteta’s charges will come through with another gritty performance, and three highly prized points.
In this fixture last May, when the players’ attention might have been distracted by the upcoming Europa League final, Arsenal emerged victorious through second-half goals by Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (2) and Eddie Nketiah. Unai Emery was looking relatively comfortable for one of his last times as manager. This season, the 40-odd days since the arrival of Arteta has given the players’ confidence a major boost. Their sustained positive approach in recent matches has been a pleasure to see, coming as a relief after the mounting negativity of the last months under Emery when they seemed to be waiting for the next thing to go wrong.
Burnley have played 12 home league fixtures, winning and losing six each. Sean Dyche’s side defeated bottom-half clubs Southampton, Norwich, Everton, West Ham, and Newcastle, and third-placed Leicester on the 19th of January. They should be well-rested, last having played eight days ago when they lost a home Cup tie to Norwich City. But the Clarets’ most recent Premier League match was their impressive away win and clean sheet at Old Trafford, where Burnley had not won in nearly 60 years. If Burnley can maintain their recent levels of energy and discipline, Arsenal could struggle to break them down.
The centre-half pairing of Ben Mee and James Tarkowski have anchored Burnley’s defence in all 24 league fixtures, and Arsenal should expect to see them again. Burnley will be feeling confident about their attacking prospects considering their strength on high balls and set pieces, as well as Arsenal’s well-discussed defensive weaknesses in those situations. At Old Trafford the Clarets lined up in a 4-4-2 formation with Jay Rodriguez and Chris Wood leading the line and both players getting their names on the scoresheet. Ashley Westwood, and 20-year old academy graduate Dwight McNeil have been the two most important creative forces in Burnley‘s midfield, and both of them should both feature against the Gunners.
Arsenal’s continuing run of uneven away form remains a concern. The Gunners have garnered only two wins, at Newcastle in August and West Ham in December. In their remaining away fixtures they drew seven and lost three, so an upturn is certainly in order. They last played Monday when they defeated Bournemouth in the FA Cup, and will try to build on the positives of that match as well as their most recent league match the 2-2 draw at Stamford Bridge when they drew level twice despite playing with ten men for over an hour.
Team selection
In central defence David Luiz returns from suspension and should partner Sokratis Papastathopoulos. On their flanks, Hector Bellerin and 18-year old dynamo Bukayo Saka should keep their places. Shkodran Mustafi, who suffered an ankle injury at Bournemouth, is not expected to play, and after the loan signings of defenders Pablo Mari and Cedric Soares, the German’s rung on the ladder may have sunk a bit lower.
A key decision is in midfield where Arteta needs to mitigate Burnley’s height advantage. But does he have a ready replacement for Lucas Torreira? In his selection decisions thus far the manager has not shown full confidence in Matteo Guendouzi, who performed so well at Bournemouth, but the young Frenchman should have a good shot at continuing his run here. Granit Xhaka is in an encouraging stretch of form, and his defensive duties have been expanding recently so it will be interesting to see his role.
A bit farther up the pitch, Mikel Arteta has shown renewed faith in Mesut Özil, who was so often left out of the team in these fixtures in years past. Where the opposition’s defensive approach features rotational fouling, will Arteta keep faith with his highest-paid player? Based on every one of his selection decisions so far, he could indeed. But this is Arteta’s first squad selection “up north” having narrowly missed taking charge at Everton in December, and he may consider other options such as Joe Willock, whose physical qualities could add balance to the starting XI.
In the Arsenal attack, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is once again available for selection following his three-match ban, and should go straight into the team alongside Alexandre Lacazette. Nicolas Pépé can be expected to provide width on the right side with Gabriel Martinelli available as a substitute to run at tiring Burnley defenders.
Arsenal: Leno, Bellerín, Luiz, Sokratis, Saka, Xhaka, Guendouzi, Özil, Pepe, Lacazette, Aubameyang.
The ‘holic pound
In spite of our less than stellar away form I am backing a 1-2 away win to The Arsenal with Aubameyang scoring two delightful second-half goals and Burnley snatching one at the death.
Here’s to the long-awaited start of Arsenal’s march back up the table. Wherever you watch the game, keep spirits high, Dave in your heart, and have a great one.
Thirst
Thecond
Top job bt8. Really nice analysis. After Chelsea just drew with Leicester we are 11 points off fourth with a game in hand. A win tomorrow closes that to 8 with 12 games to go.
Come on you Gunners!
Bum. I had the thecond plathe thlot nithely lined up but pauthed to write a genuine drink. Then my internet connection fell over.
A good, fact-laden, preview. Welcome to the writing team bt8.
What with the upturn in teamwork and general attitude since Mikel’s arrival I’m inclined to ignore everything that went before. Also, I’ve never bought into the whole “No away wins for Arsenal under Arteta” thing, so I’m felling quite optimistic about this one.
1-2 to the Arsenal would suit me fine.
COYG
Excellent preview bt8. Your review of Burnley’s recent form and traditional style makes me more nervous about this trip than I was a few days ago.
I suspect your selection is closer to Mikel’s starting 11 but I would start Torreira for his scrapping skills (despite his small stature) bringing Guendouzi in the SH as the game stretches and legs tire, and I would start the energetic young Willock for Ozil whose record on the road is derisory and whose constitution seems to fail north of the Watford gap.
2-1 sounds about right.
COYG
Comprehensive stuff, thanks
bt8. Team looks about right
but like you I’m curious to see
whether MA will tinker.
On the score, I think it’ll be
close but I’m hoping for 3-2
as I fear we’ll cough up a
couple.
2-1 to the good guys, of course.
Comprehensive indeed, and with some canny analysis too. Ta very much bt8.
At first I thought your title was a reference to Sean Dyche. Then I saw it said ‘grit’, not ‘git’.
I’d love a 2-1 to the good guys. Sounds just what we need.
Torreira to start rather than Guendouzi but otherwise your team looks good, bt8.
Hoping for a win for the good guys at Burnley; a Citeh win against Spuds and a draw in the ManU/Wolves game to marry up with the Leicester/Chelsea draw. Fourth is out of the question but I still seem to keep hoping.
Top work, bt8b. My 2-cents is that Torreira will start. Burnley will go after Guendouzi from the get-go to wind him up so better to have him come on when the game is won. Otherwise, I like the cut of you team and the predicted result, although Burnley has scored only one goal in our four most recent visits to Turf Moor, so it could be a classic 1-0 to the Arsenal.
And I can’t pass up an opportunity to quote the immortal poet John Cooper Clarke:
I’ll tell you now and I’ll tell you firmly
I don’t never want to go to Burnley
What they do there don’t concern me
Why would anybody make the journey?
http://johncooperclarke.com/poems/burnley
I’ve just looked at the table. Never a good thing this season so far.
We are now 12th and tomorrow’s opponent is now 14th and as bt8 observes in the preview, we are both on 30 points and only above them because our GD is a stunning -2 whereas theirs is a pitiful -10. Both teams are only FOUR points above the relegation places.
It’s actually a classic peri-relegation six-pointer, chaps.
Emery who has to take the bulk of responsibility for this should just shut his mouth.
Correction: we are SIX points above the relegation places.
Phew! 😥
Excellent preview Bt8 .
I’m going to be an optimist ( looking up ) rather than a pessimist ( looking down the table) We have an excellent record at Burnley in recent years with a couple of very late goals and we are well capable of beating them tomorrow. I’ve made Aubameyang my Fantasy League captain so he is nailed on to get at least two and maybe an assist in a 3-0 win.
Win tomorrow and we go ninth and at most four points out of fifth. Losing tomorrow does not bear thinking about.
In other news:
Theo!
https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/51246503
Thanks all for your very kind remarks, and NBN for evocative and rhythmical poetry. Great stuff. The referee, always an important consideration at Burnley, is Chris Kavanagh. Let’s hope he comes down like a ton of bricks when Burnley get up to their old tricks.
Cheers bt8, an excellent preview with a nice wide perspective. The majority of the team selects itself on recent performances but there are some positions which could see a change viz Torreira or Guendouzi, Willock or Ozil and Martinelli could replace either Lacazette or Pepe.
TTG is correct that we’ve had some good results of late at Turf Moor – often with late, controversial goals – so another familiar 2-1 to the good guys is where my money’s going.
PS @ 15 Takes Aubameyang out of my fantasy league 😉
Btm @10. If we beat Burnley, Newcastle and Everton in our next three games and Chelsea lose to Spuds and It’s then we are 2 points behind them. Top four is not likely, but not so far away we should give up.
Things move fast in football. As Baff notes, a few results either way could see us move significantly up or down the table…
well written, bt8, very well done. i think you nailed the mood and the punt, if not the team selection. i’d have willock and lt11 in the midfield for mesut and guendo. i think that’s a more rugged and balanced squad, less prone to give away free kick opportunities burnley could convert.
bt8b@17: Sunday’s will be Chris Kavanagh’s first Burnley v Arsenal game.
He has reffed eight Burnley games previously, of which they have won three, drawn three and lost two. He has given them 11 yellow cards in those eight games, including seven in the five home games — no second-yellow or straight reds home or away.
He has reffed six of our games, of which we have won four and lost two, and given us eight yellow cards in those six games but only one each in the two away games where he has been in charge. Again, no second-yellow or straight reds home or away.
All of which suggests that either he keeps games under effective control from the get-go or he lets a lot go by.
Overall, he has only given two second-yellow and two straight reds in 57 Premier League game, though he has awarded 13 penalties, but never against either Burnley or us.
Glad you liked the John Cooper Clarke verse. He is one of the finest punk poets England produced. For Sopranos’ fans, his poem Evidently Chickentown was used over the closing credits of one episode. However, the producers had to sanitise the language, which was too profane even for cable.
To Bath’s point, apart from the top two, no team is putting together a run of consistent form.
Points from last five games:
15 Liverpool
13 Manchester City
9 Southampton
8 Everton
7 Aston Villa, Leicester City, Sheffield United, Watford
6 Arsenal, Bournemouth, Burnley, Chelsea, Newcastle,
5 Norwich City, Tottenham Hotspur, Wolverhampton Wanderers,
4 Manchester United
3 Brighton & Hove Albion, Crystal Palace
2 West Ham United
ned, if we win tomorrow, we’ll be on 9 from our last 5, having gained 3 on chelsea, 4 on scum, and 5 on manure even drawing as much as we have. kind of amazing.
Indeed, Scruz. Still a way to go this season and much to play for.
A win at Burnley will also mean that there will be as many as five teams who have won fewer away games than us, as opposed to the one now, Norwich. Yet only Liverpool and Sheffield United have lost fewer away games than us. Perplexing season.
perplexing indeed, ned. i still can’t believe we are within as few points of europe as we are.
COYG!!
A telling table of the last
5 games Ned.
We haven’t been good this
season but like nearly
everyone else we’re 3 wins
in a row away from Top 5,
frustrating stuff. We’ve never
looked a particularly settled
side this season so it’s
encouraging that MA is
bringing some consistency to
our selection and approach.
Personally I’d start Ozil today,
though I’d accept there are still
questions, for the simple reason
that we really can’t have players
in the side who we don’t trust in
gritty situations.
MA must see for himself and you
can’t do that unless you put
players in for a run of games and
see what happens.
It’s a clean slate under MA but
everyone must produce – not just
Mesut – and those that don’t or
can’t must be moved on. But we
also need to play our way and
Ozil is an important part of that
creatively. He hasn’t had enough
football for months now and it
seems too early to me for writing
him off.
That post really wasn’t intended
as a defence of Ozil!
I feel pretty much the same
about nearly all the players
really. Apart maybe from Leno,
who at the moment should be
Player of the Season, it’s difficult
to think of one that I’m fully
confident about for the starting
XI on the first day of next season.
Many of them are very good
quality and I rate them highly
but they all have one or two
question marks in my mind.
Getting some pre-match eating
and drinking done here in Japan
just to idly share – sashimi,
Ise ebi and botan nabe with beer,
sake, shochu and now more
beer. I hope I make kick off.
Love nabe, especially the one with small clams.
Drink!
Is Torreira out injured then? Had missed that.
Leno
Hector
Luiz
Mustafi
Saka
Guendouzi
Xhaka
Auba
Ozil
Gaby
Laca
Subs
Papa
Dani
Torreira
Pepe
Martinez
Willock
Eddie
That Mustafi knock wasn’t much then.
Leno
Bellerin, Mustafi, Luiz, Saka
Guendouzi, Xhaka
Martinelli, Ozil, Aubameyang
Lacazette
OM. I’m jealous of that lot.
I’m also jealous of other clubs who don’t start Mustafi in Premier matches.
I really hope he plays well without his usual couple of terrible errors.
I wonder how we will setup the front three of Laca, Auba and Gabi? Who’s on the right?
Arteta does my prognostication of his team selection one better by starting Martinelli and dropping Pépé to the bench. If bbc website graphic can be believed. COYG
Graham Sounness is like a black hole that sucks in all the joy that strays anywhere near it. If Joy has anti-matter they should be called Sounness particles.
You type faster than I do C100!
Love the front three.
Worried about CBs and centre midfield without Lucas.
Which Ozil will turn up?
Seems Cedric is already out injured.
C100@40: Team looks a classic ‘we’ll score more goals than we concede’ set-up.
Dining on wild boar should set you up nicely for the Burnley game, OM.
Come on Arsenal!
RUreds!
COYG
Shocking early miss by Laca. Well set up by Ozil and Auba.
Saka was murdering them down that left side and produced two great crosses. Since he got that knock he’s barely crossed the half way line.
this was a half of much endeavor, most of it in our defensive half. they are working harder than we are. if their shooters were better at getting the ball on frame, we could be down a couple 😕
i hope saka isn’t hurt too badly.
oh, what the heck.
Why was no yellow card given for the early butcher block tackle on Saka?
Saka started straight out of a cannon, but has been relatively subdued since the tackle. I wonder if this ref is aware that sends a green light signal when he fails to bring out the yellow card in that situation?
Arteta has interesting stuff to think about at halftime.
Here comes Torreira
2nd half not going to plan –
let’s nick onev
Plus points: not beaten and a clean sheet. That’s about it.
Should have been two up in the first half. Thankfully, Burnley’s strikers were miscueing as badly as ours.
Really showed how important Saka is to our attack when he was hobbling at left back.
Right on every point Ned. Amazing how much difference an 18 year old academy kid playing out of position makes to our team.
A tough place to go for a team struggling to turn around a poor start to the season and learn a new style of play. They set out to rough us up but only after we had started well and created two chances that would have been buried if our two strikers were on form. We struggled at times and Saka getting kicked off the park was a blow to our offensive structure. Burnley employed every black art: blocking Leno at corners, body checks off the ball, barging the jumper at headers an leaving the foot in. Thank goodness no-one sustained a broken leg. Without doubt, even at our rockiest, we looked better than we would have under Emery and we did try to win the game. Now we need to start winning games.
C100@54: indeed. With Saka’s injury we lost the attacking 3v2 overload on the left and the space for Ozil it opens up. Double whammy.
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