After a few false starts at writing this review when I just found no inspiration in recalling a match that while watching I had felt mostly a sense of ennui and pointlessness, which was only relieved by a few moments of errors that were so bizarre that the outrage was rather easily drained away by the force of the absurd, I ended up deciding to write about certain aspects of this match in specific – and football in general – that left the strongest impression. And I am talking not about Leno’s uncharacteristic howler here; but about unquestionably the most inexplicable VAR-based decision that at least I have noticed in the Premier League, where each matchday until now has contrived to outwit the previous weekend’s taste of the bizarre. I am also talking about something less inexplicable and bizarre than the variability of the VAR, though significantly more relevant for the Arsenal’s league standings in the seasons to come, namely our home form.
Speaking of Leno’s embarrassing own goal – all goalkeepers have a moment or two like that in a season and given the number of times Leno has saved our skin and his overall consistency and ability to bounce back from mistakes I don’t feel any need to add to questions and criticisms about him. However, in a game where our lack of nous and precision in the opposition’s final third – especially when that opposition was committed to a completely counter-attacking tactics and defended both men and space in numbers, creating low blocks and packed central areas – was so frustrating to watch, a mistake like that made the telling difference. For the first time ever, Everton won an away league match at Emirates, won an away league match at Arsenal after 24 years, completed a league double against Arsenal first time after 1985-86 season, and consigned us to our first ever Friday loss at Premier League. Most damningly, we have failed to score in eight home league games this season whereas in the four previous seasons combined we had failed to score at home only four times. That extraordinary statistic encapsulates our terrible home in a nutshell, and that home form is the key reason behind our simply unacceptable league position. I am sure Mikel and the team understands fully that this cannot simply go on.
In a match where two mid-table teams played out a mostly joyless, cagey game – though not without immense physical effort and tactical discipline, which in this case simply exacerbated the stultifying feeling of watching them play — where our efforts were undermined completely by our lack of imagination and freedom in playing, and laid bare the well-known limitations of the current Arsenal squad – especially with a few key offensive outlets missing through injury and illness — as well as, and it gives me no pleasure in writing this, the limitations of our current young manager who is finding it hard to balance orchestration and individuality.
Coming at the end of a scandalous week in European football where things ended by becoming no worse than they already were, and who knows there may now even be some impetus in bringing in much necessary changes to the world of football governance and finances, this felt to me the right moment to discuss two changes I think many of us here would like to see going forward: a complete review and redesign of how VAR is being applied in English football, and less controversially a significant shift away from how Arsenal have become almost addicted to playing a limited, cautious game at home.
Statistically speaking we dominated nearly a full-strength Everton with almost all of their key players in the starting line-up: possession, shots, shots on target, corners. From the very beginning Everton made their intention clear with players like James Rodriguez and Richarlison dropping deeper to help out defending attacks and always have two players man marking on any of the three key creative forces in the Arsenal line-up — Saka, ESR and Pépé – whenever they have the ball. Their idea was to initiate quick transition and once Arsenal have ball near our own goal press our famously self-sabotaging defense into making mistakes. This was Ancelotti playing more of the classical Italian catenaccio and less of the free-flowing Arrigo Sacchi – or for that matter, free-flowing Ancelotti – style football. They were convinced that we won’t be able to do much against an organized defense dropping so deep, and even if they might have not quite expected that it will be an unforced mistake of that implausibility which will give them the goal, they were proven right on our ability to find unique new ways of conceding.
This has been a theme all season. Whenever teams have come to Emirates with this time-worn blueprint we have served up performances and results of this exact type. Eight home games without scoring a goal! That’s astoundingly un-Arsenal, especially for many of us who have started following Arsenal at different points of the Arsène Wenger era. Our away form has been comparatively better this season, especially when the opposition teams have approached their games with an intent to take the initiative. There have been home matches too – especially after ESR and then later Ødegaard joined Saka in pulling the strings in the second half of the season — when a relatively open affair had seen us play passages of fast, precise, inventive football to give us a few enjoyable wins. But by now it has become quite concerning – especially coming after home draws of 1-1 against Fulham and Sparta Prague – that irrespective of the quality of the opposition, if they are willing to stick to this “defend deep in low blocks and force them to make a mistake or two” diligently we are almost always guaranteed to throw away three points.
There are of course some well-understood limitations right at the heart of our team: we do not have anyone who is consistently capable of seeing and executing defense-splitting passes from the deep, and who can initiate a fast transition through quick release to the wings. Against Everton, time and again Saka or Pépé will be perfectly placed to be released by a through ball when we had recovered possession in our own half and Everton had committed some of their players forward, but our “designated” passers will rotate the ball to patiently build up a move instead of seeing that angle and threading a pass through. I have nothing against rotating possession and patient build-up play, switching flanks and moving players around to create overloads and hence goalscoring opportunities, and grinding teams down by the speed of moving the ball around in constantly shifting triangles. Especially if you have the kinds of teams that Arteta’s coaching mentor always had at his disposal in Barcelona/Bayern/Man City with supreme technical players at every position. But that cannot be the only approach when teams are sitting deep, safe in their knowledge that they have already practiced against each variations of these over choreographed moves and they are not up against superior technical players at every position.
One of Arsène’s key footballing philosophy was to teach the team a kind of meta-tactics: strategies to individually and collectively find solutions to problems on the pitch, improving their football intelligence and most importantly trusting their abilities to innovate such solutions. It can be argued that towards the end of his managerial tenure he might have drifted too far into that philosophy almost as an ideal, eschewing the pragmatism of additionally preparing the team for the strengths and weaknesses of the opposition, but Mikel may want to think a little bit more about his Arsenal manager to keep his focus away from the manic obsessive Guardiola choreography: a little more jazz and a little less ballet.
In a match like this Saka and Pépé should have felt free to take the initiatives to switch flanks a few times, Xhaka and Ceballos not always hanging out at each other’s doorstep but maybe Partey coming in to the left and Ceballos joining Chambers on the right, Xhaka who has a decent left foot taking a corner while ESR (a midfielder with underrated defensive awareness) drops back to protect against counterattacks. Something unpredictable, maybe even a little bit of chaos in the opposition’s final third, a little less concerned about the mistakes they might make but more intent on enjoying their football.
Just to be clear, this is not an argument to replace Mikel. I think he is a manager of great potential; he is learning in the job and since he has taken over at Arsenal he has delivered a couple of trophies, and has made some noticeable improvements to few individuals and brought in a degree of tactical consistency and organization to our game which went completely missing in the final months of his Basque predecessor. He is also managing through tumultuous times in the world where clubs and individuals have been impacted in ways that one cannot really rely on past wisdoms to address. I completely support him and quietly confident that if the club hierarchy provides him with the right backing in the next couple of transfer windows, we will see Arsenal reemerge as a force in the premier league within a few seasons. Provided, provided, he himself learns to grow and reinvent himself, and maybe starts moving away from the cageyness of his approaches especially in home games. Let that hair down a little bit Mikel, it’s just football! This should be fun.
Whereas my innate optimism in well-meaning people makes me hope that Mikel will turn this wretched run of home form around, and we will start to make noticeable progress in league next season and this season he will find a way to help the team win the Europa league, such optimism doesn’t come naturally where VAR is concerned. Or rather, where VAR as it is being practiced in English football is concerned.
The disallowed penalty after a noticeable clip on Dani made him lose balance in the Everton penalty box – 100% foul and penalty as was correctly given by the referee — was bizarre not only in its conclusion but also how that conclusion was arrived at. VAR was supposed to be used to overturn noticeable and obvious errors made by referees and keep the game fair by removing as many poor on-field decisions as possible. The nanometer offside that was awarded against Pépé in the “build up” of the play where Dani was fouled completely subverts that principle: there was no noticeable error by the match officials in awarding the decision. The “offside” itself was irrelevant in the context as it happened probably 15 seconds before Dani was fouled and the ball had been rotated a few times by then. Finally, that “offside” was not a noticeable or obvious error. No matter how many lines they tried to draw to demonstrate the “proof” was completely inconclusive to suggest that the officials on the ground made any noticeable error.
This has been happening all throughout the season. Arsenal fans can feel particularly peeved by the number of strange VAR decisions we have been at the wrong end of. Before anyone dismisses that as a typical fan paranoia, I would like to see a distribution of VAR decisions for-and-against each club at the end of the season. Numbers don’t lie and there have been seasons past where post-season statistical analysis had underlined that Arsenal had received the highest numbers of wrong decisions.
But leaving aside the Arsenal-tinted grievances, just the sheer chaos, confusion and draining of the basic joy of football that VAR has brought into the English game has generated a very strong negative reaction. It simply doesn’t have to be so. Technology has been applied with excellent outcome in sports like Tennis or Cricket – especially in Cricket where umpiring decisions in the pre-technology days often used to stir up as much a drama as the proceedings between the twenty-two yards – and even in football there are other leagues where VAR is being used in a less dramatic and more consistent fashion. If the current trend of VAR in PL goes on fans – and one can feel even the players too as some of the most joyous moments of their careers are being ruined by the sheer arbitrariness of the decisions – will start to lose interest in the league. As with all technologies, the problem is not with the technology, but how it is being implemented and how inconsistently the rules surrounding its usage are being enforced. This simply cannot go on. After this season is over the English football’s governing body should work on simplifying and standardizing the VAR-based review process to make for a consistent experience where the focus should be on eradicating obviously poor decisions in a consistent and explicable manner, and not on scrutinizing every pivotal moment to the last dying millimeter of relevance only to come up with just another layer of subjective decision overriding the referee’s (sometimes moody) whistle.
Remember, pray, the 3rd of May…
Celebrate the true values and traditions of the Arsenal with Goonerholics Forever’s 1970-71 Double Anniversary Events.
Gorgeous George was always likely to pop up in the box! Did he touch the ball?
Top class Dr F
A game to forget, only the next 2 Thursdays have any meaning for the players and the Club.
Arsene always said, it was very hard to motivate the players for matches that had nothing hanging on them.
Fulham and Everton proved that in spades.
As for VAR, i have given up trying to understand their decisions.
Baffling, would be an understatement.
Great work Dr. F.
To your final point, Could the simple expedient of having both VAR and referee miked up not solve the problem. It would force transparency, sad to say so sorely missing, on the frankly rather murky organisation which runs the referees and compel them to make more consistent decisions. Quite how anyone can draw a line from one players elbow directly to another and make a decision in that basis and expect to be taken seriously is beyond my understanding.
Dr.F
You have hit a couple of big nails firmly on the head . Both are making me reconsider whether I want to renew next season because I don’t want to go back to a ground with a febrile, negative atmosphere and despite Friday’s admirable demonstration the Grove has been a hypercritical , fractious place over the last few seasons .
You’ve covered VAR brilliantly and it ruins my in game experience . We always seem to have decisions go against us . Yesterday’s obscene decision to send off Balbuena merely for clearing a ball upfield should prompt a serious rethink. The game is worthless if you disfigure it so .
The other point which you cover extremely insightfully is that we cannot play at home under Arteta . Contrast Wenger’s last half season when we were about to part company in terms of our home firm with the tedious ennui we regularly suffer from a stilted and predictable switch from side to side. Contrast that with our second half at West Ham, chasing the game where we were creativity personified. Our away form is completely different but Arteta woukd have had to be dismissed if full crowds had been subjected to the rubbish we’ve seen at home this season .
I desperately want Arteta to succeed but he must reinvent himself and he must get a more dynamic central midfield. Partey has been utterly underwhelming and we need much more drive and verticality .
Briliant reflection Dr.F on worrying times
An excellent and thought-provoking piece Dr F. That match showed us two very closely matched teams seemingly inevitably heading for a goalless draw unless one, and that was more likely to be us, produced a moment of magic or one, and that too was sadly more likely to be us, made a game-changing error.
As you observe we must find more than one way to break those deep blocks. If we don’t score we are always vulnerable to a 1-0 defeat. It’s as if the fates were having their revenge for having given us those defences of 1970-71 and 1988-91 that were as safe as houses.
As for VAR……….. 🗑
As for PGMOL……. 💣
Excellent stuff Doc.
That match can get in the bin. With VAR (as it is used) and the refs.
Right folks, I have a bugbear I gotta express.
I am tearing my hair out at every single “if there were crowds in The Emirates…” comment.
What?
Honestly, what are you on about?
Am I missing something here?
If there were crowds in The Emirates this season it would be a sign that we were not IN THE MIDDLE OF A FUCKING GLOBAL PANDEMIC.
So, what is the argument here? That, if we were not in the middle of a global pandemic, then not a single thing would be different on the pitch? That all of the seismic changes at every level of human life, in every part of the globe, have not affected the playing performance of Arsenal Football Club in any way whatsoever?
I am not going to bother making even a small list of some of the obvious ways that our entire season has been drastically affected by Covid. I cannot believe that anyone is not aware of them. I must believe instead that they are being willfully ignored to make a point so lacking in basic logic that I do not understand it at all. Or what value it might have?
Do people not understand that we cannot have hypothetical crowds without changing so many other variables that comparing the two situations is pointless?
If we had crowds, we would be living in, quite literally, an entirely different world. Who knows what our team might be playing like in that scenario?
Put another way, do people expect that if The Invincibles had played their unbeaten season during a global pandemic it would not have made a difference to a single performance? Personally, I do not.
So, if, IN THE FUTURE, we have crowds in the stadium, and (despite all the other changes this would inevitably mean, not least the very fact of having a partisan crowd – desperate for both some normality and a potent Arsenal side to support – cheering them on) the team are still playing the same blunt style at home, THEN i would agree that the people in that crowd would not be shy in letting the boss know that they did not agree with his tactics. And possibly a range of other conclusions might be supportable, in that circumstance.
But that is, at the moment, an imaginery situation. It is not real. I might as well make pronouncements on what customer reaction might be to menu changes on Qatar Airlines flights into London. “If this airplane was full, and people were paying to eat this food, then the Menu Co-Ordinator would be under real pressure.”
Today i find myself, like Blogs, amazed at the ability of people to invent an imaginery scenario and then make pronouncements as though it had some bearing on reality.
It is more baffling than VAR.
Look at Liverpool. Who would have put money on them struggling to get back into the Champions League this year? Not me, Clive.
However, the unique circumstances of this year’s league has affected them. We will never know whether it was an inevitable burnout from Klopp’s style (or whatever other theories people have for their unexpected struggles) because we cannot separate them from the massive effects of Covid. Which, again, renders the attempts pointless.
Furthermore, like in every single other human sitaution, Covid has affected different individuals and different groups of people in different ways. It does not work to say “well, it is the same for everyone.”
No. It is not. It is clearly not.
Such an argument would be naive, at best, and, frankly, would struggle to defend itself against the charge of being offensively crass.
We just have to take this season as a one-off. Anyone who wants to point out how poor we have been at home (as The Doc has effectively done above) can make this point convincingly without resorting to the paradoxical “what would the crowd think?” question.
Personally, I hope that it is also possible to make the point that when crowds are back it will herald so many other changes that we will have to judge that situation on an entirely different basis too.
I think this entire season is an outlier and will historically prove to be.
I feel for Arteta, who has had to deal with more in his short career than most managers would face in their entire time in the dugout. We cannot judge what he might be like, all things being equal, because all things have been a long way from equal.
For a rookie he has guided the club with remarkable consistency of purpose during the toughest period in our history, at least since the war years and possibly ever. He is also a man who fully understands what our club is about. I am not sure about Edu. He might be such a man. And I am sure Big Per is. If we replaced MA8 we would need to get in another ex-Arsenal player as manager to prevent us losing one more person in a position of power with the true understanding of our values and traditions.
If this week has shown anything it is that we cannot afford to do that. The owners are fools who do not care about our club. MA8 is not a fool and he does care. We need people like that and cannot afford to lose them (although we can expect the Kroenke’s to continue to perform the impossible by uniting the entire Arsenal fanbase in our assessment that they make shit decisions for our club)
Now, all of that said, Arteta needs to sort the fucking team out next year. As things return to normal I will judge him differently than I have judged him during the pandemic. I like him very much and see huge potential but I fully agree with The Doc and others that he must evolve. His style looks great with Man City’s players. With ours it does not.
The thing now is that the Europa League is HUGE this year. It is potentially a turning point as big as we have faced in a long time. If we can scrape out of this season with a trophy and a CL spot then everything is rosy and we can attack again next year.
If we fail to win the EL then next season will be something entirely different.
I don’t yet know how good Mikel Arteta is. I hope we find out.
But, before then, we may find out something just as important.
How lucky is he?
Two well-made points, Dr F.
On home form, to pick up some of GSD’s points, we are not alone in experiencing the effect of absent crowds on results. There will be some interesting statistical analysis to come on home form once the season is over. Your tactical observations are, as ever, astute. We share a view that playing Guardiola-ball without a squad with the technical quality throughout that Guardiola-ball requires is fraught with potential disappointment.
You are spot-on in saying that with VAR, it is not the technology that is at fault but its implementation. The proverbial man on the Clapham omnibus would say that even if Pepe was nanometers offside in the build-up to the penalty incident (we scrutinise the two lines but never question if they are parallel to each other or the goal line or drawn at exactly the moment the ball leaves, or should it be first touches, the passer’s foot), the assistant referee had not made a clear and obvious error in not signalling it. Thus it should have had no bearing on the decision on the central question about whether or not Ceballos had been fouled.
Do referees and assistant referees suffer any sanction if VAR overturns their decisions? Any other business would at the very least reprimand workers making ‘clear and obvious errors’ and eventually show them the door if their performance did not improve.
GSD@9: You remind me of something Napolean said about his generals, better to be lucky than good.
In other news, Norwich and Watford have now both secured an immediate return to the Premiership for next season. Bournemouth is in the frame for the play-offs, so could make it all three of those relegated last season. However, nostalgia says it would be nice for Brentford to return to the top flight for the first time since 1946-47.
Meanwhile Trophy dodgers FC lose again in a final.
Now 13 years, 2 months and 1 day since Spurs won a trophy. And of course if you glance up and to your right, you’ll see it’s 60 years and 2 days since they won the league. Big Club? My arse.
Now let’s crack on and win that Europa League, just to rub their faces right in it.
The video about their second place trophy should be out soon.
I am in complete agreement with you Dr F on both points. VAR is an utter disaster as it is being implemented, and a real worry as to driving fans away from the game in droves. Fans are not dumb, and can see a farce when they see one, and VAR has now qualified as exactly that, a fucking farce. Why should fans be subjected to it. They will rebel.
I think it would fairly easy to fix VAR. Adopt the approach that they take in American Football – there has to a clear and obvious wrong call/no call. No computer graphics measuring the length of a toe nail. For every VAR review, the head referee has to go (run) to the sideline and watch the video, and the head referee and VAR referee have to agree on the correct call. If they can’t agree, the ruling on the pitch stands. And once the head referee turns on the video screen they have 30 seconds to make a decision.
If the EPL was to follow the NFL’s example, the managers not VAR would decide if a ref’s decision should be reviewed. Two reviews a manager per game, with a manager who gets both his reviews upheld, getting a third.
This NFL infographic explains it in detail: https://operations.nfl.com/officiating/instant-replay/nfl-instant-replay-process/
I should have added that difference, Ned. The point I was trying make was the error should be clear and obvious, as determined by the VAR referee. Also, note the introduction on the NFL’s page, “…replay review process focuses on expediting instant replay reviews and ensuring consistency.” I think if VAR could be implemented in that fashion, we would all be happier.
Thanks Dr F, firstly not reviewing
that game in detail and secondly
for a comprehensive look at the
two points you did cover.
Hopefully crowds can be back for
next season and VAR will be
revamped.
Celebrate the Arsenal’s history & traditions at Goonerholics Forever.
Geordie epitomised commitment and was loved by fans. He could put a cross on a sixpence and scored vital goals like this winner against Sp*rs. 56 apps 7 goals.
Celebrate the Arsenal’s history & traditions at Goonerholics Forever.
Geordie epitomised commitment and was loved by fans. He could put a cross on a sixpence and scored vital goals like this winner against Sp*rs. 56 apps 7 goals.
Another first class review Dr F -especially as you decided to minimise the match itself and concentrate on two major issues this season has thrown up.
Returning spectators will make a difference next season but that can work both ways. We hope they will inspire the players to give their utmost each match. However If there is a run dire performances the crowd will be on the players ( and manager’s ) back. For those watching in front of a screen having the crowd atmosphere will be a most welcome return.
VAR has proved to be a major setback rather than the advance we were hoping for. In my view that is mainly down to the way it is being operated. We shouldn’t really be surprised when we see who that is – the PGMOL are one of the most poorly run organisations I know, led by the incompetent M.Riley. Whilst they are running VAR I don’t believe they are capable of running it effectively and it should be outsourced to a more reliable body. Although we appear to be at the wrong end of many decisions I expect many other clubs believe they are affected the same way. It would be interesting if any such figures become available at the end of the season.
Superb thread from the doyen of forensic football accountants, @swissramble , on the finances of the dirty dozen.
Excellent piece of writing. Thanks Dr. F.
Food for thought.
It was a hard to watch game, that’s for sure.
I think you are right about MA, he is takeing it a bit too seriously.
Thanks for posting the Swiss Ramble financial analysis C100. As always a fascinating read.
It just re-emphasises that the ESL will remain a cherished ambition of the 12 founder members for the foreseeable future.
It’s galling to learn that we are still paying 90%of Ozil’s wages . As Fenerbache did not pay a fee to take him we are saving £35,000 a month , just about £210,000 over the remaining length of his contract . It shows MA8’s keenness to move him on and suggests to me we are not brilliant at negotiating exits for our players .
We need Edu to raise a very substantial amount this summer through moving on Torreira, Kolasinac, Guendouzi , Bellerin , Luiz ( out of contract) , Willock ( possibly ) , AMN , Nelson and Nketiah . ( five of those are homegrown so we will need to think carefully )
We might also need to think carefully about Lacazette , Leno and even Aubameyang but we mustn’t rip the guts out of the squad . But we have a lot of non -performing assets on high salaries
Arsenal: Thierry Henry, Dennis Bergkamp and Patrick Vieira join Spotify founder’s bid to buy club
https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/56890624
Thin to non-existent sourcing, but we can dream…
TTG@25: It was a negotiation in which Ozil held the high cards. He could sit out the rump of the season, get paid full whack, generally be in the way and then leave on a free, or agree to go providing he was made whole on his expected contract earnings. Arteta, I assume, reckoned the intangible benefit of being rid of Ozil was worthwhile, even if the tangible yield was minimal.
Thanks everyone for the kind words.
Ned/ecg: I like the idea of having review only on the bench’s request and limited to a finite number (3?) per match. And only for certain decisions — penalties given/not given, goals allowed/disallowed, yellow/red cards awarded (but not for not awarded).
Balogun news is finally confirmed! Assuming we will sell Laca and Eddie at the end of the season, it will be Auba, Martinelli and Balogun for that central role with Martinelli versatile enough to play wide as well. That may not be enough depth if we are also in Europe.
Willock’s goals for the Toons remind us how much we are missing a goal-scoring midfielder. Forget Rambo and all the typical late run into the box kind of goals, even the relatively infrequent but crucial contributions in goalscoring columns that Santi or TR7 used to make (and Mesut in his better days). I think both AMN and Willock should get a chance to prove them in Arsenal first team playing down the middle. But probably one of them if not both will be sold.
Dr F@28: Don’t forget Tyreece John-Jules. His loan spells have been injury-interrupted, but he is considered a bright prospect if not quite as shiny as Balogun. He likes to play that linking role that Arteta has got Laca playing.
Great report, Dr F,
Just the right points to concentrate on as the team seem to have forgotten how to concentrate on winning any points at all.
Steve T is right when he says “we” have brought VAR on ourselves by demanding correct decisions. It has, however, been implemented without any intelligent thought as to how to use it. The result is that the incompetent referee on the pitch one week, is the same person making nonsensical and unjustifiable decisions on a screen the next.
Computer drawn lines of any thickness required to make the decision of the moment, are drawn and purported to coincide with the exact moment the forward pass is released – something that is of course impossible to measure and therefore not discussed.
It is an abomination that has already destroyed the essential joy of the sport.
Ned,
Two insightful points
Once Ozil had that contract we were stuffed. We will have similar issues in shifting Auba and Willian ifvtgey don’t want to leave .
John-Jules was arguably in front of Balogun and featured under Emery on our trip to the desert ( and scored) . But as you say he is very injury prone with two big injuries while on loan .
Moller started the season very well but his goals have dried up . It was interesting that Balogun did not play tonight for the U23s who drew 1-1 at Leicester . That suggests he will be involved on Thursday night in some capacity
Well done Folarin Balogun for signing da ting, if that’s indeed what he did.
And straight away we have Thursday night Balogun intrigue. Exciting times.
dr faustus, well done, and one hell of a piece of writing. count me as one of the glad that you didn’t do a blow by blow, even though i watched the game saturday on my phone…and so missed a great deal, i’m sure (too bad i didn’t have chris’ mahoosive tv on which to watch, i guess).
we’ve added some links to the goonerholicsforever.com donation campaign page for Willow to the site. if anyone’s considering donating, please use the link to that page. and the auction is coming soon!!
Dr F,
Agree with you on decisions for
the forward spots er… going forward.
But Laca has been good 2nd half of
the season and not sure I’d assume
him gone. I suppose it will depend on
how much we can get vs the cost of
a replacement in cold money terms.
Auba’s illness and loss of form has
complicated the situation now – it’s
a big gamble and I hope we get
a Napoleonic slice of luck.
Celebrate the 50th anniversary of the Arsenal’s 1970-71 Double here at Goonerholics Forever.
Fifty years ago we had a ‘Stan’ who understood what the club stands for. ‘Stan’ Simpson was a defensive rock all season. 34 apps, 1 goal.
Much as I would love to see KSE sell up and leave these shores for good to be replaced as owners by a consortium of rich fans and club legends, this analysis on the site of our very good friend Gav, is a very rational analysis of the current situation:
https://shewore.com
Excellent analysis Bath/Gav. The Athletic has something similar, making the same point that Ek’s wealth is in his Spotify shares (The Athletic says 9% of $400b, Gav says 10% – same point applies) not in liquid assets.
https://theathletic.com/2543613/2021/04/27/why-american-owners-in-premier-league-will-not-sell-up/
A superb short piece on the ’70-71 Double tweeted this morning by @touchofpowder: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rS88BCRbS0U
There is a lot of noise around Arsenal at the moment. Inevitable I suppose after last week and the tweet by Ek got the Twitterati close to meltdown . While I fully accept the points made by the Athletic and Keenis, which is effectively an accessible idiot’s guide to M& A, I sense something is happening. I’ve been involved in some serious M&A activity , one deal being very close to the sums we are talking about here and it was twenty five years ago. The most recent was last summer and it was concluded completely remotely , egotiation, due diligence and all .
It is a dirty, labyrinthine and tricky business . The big deal I am talking about was only known about by a handful of people.I didn’t even tell my own family . It was due to be concluded on August BH Monday and on the Sunday, the Sunday Express carried a detailed analysis of it with all the right figures. It was a deliberate leak by a very well-known merchant bank in contravention of NDAs all over the place and it prompted another bid which meant we had to find another £100 million to clinch the deal . No action was taken and the merchant bank collected a much higher commission .
Kroenke will sell IF he gets a price that represents a huge profit, removes the buggeration factor of awkward sods like CER and co demonstrating against them and if Arsenal’s onfield performance and off-field revenue continues to decline .
But who would pay that price ? It would probably have to be someone who has a strong emotional attachment to the club( the antithesis of real estate man Stan, he of the non- existent personality )and someone who sees the potential of owning a globally recognised club with a huge fanbase , position close to Central London, sparkling history and the priceless asset of Goonerholics Forever on hand to provide advice and support . It’s a small pool of potential buyers but Arsenal are still probably one of the most attractive targets out there if you have that sort of financial muscle .
bath@36: Shewore provides a useful if rudimentary reminder of the distinction between value and price, always relevant to any discussion about buying and selling assets, and between net worth and income, again to be kept in mind when assessing anyone’s wealth.
The Forbes valuations are regarded within the football industry as reasonably accurate. Like the Sunday Express in TTG’s example @39, Forbes is well-sourced among the bankers involved. Its figure of $2.8 billion for the club is enterprise value (value of outstanding stock plus outstanding preferred stock and all debt minus cash and cash equivalents). Enterprise value is a proxy for any business’s ‘fair value’, and thus a baseline for the price eventually agreed in any deal. The size of the premium a would-be acquirer would have to pay the Kroenkes on top of that to secure a sale is what the M&A advisors on both sides are so richly rewarded for negotiating. That bit is an especially dirty, labyrinthine and tricky business, to quote TTG.
It is striking how the ESL negotiations were conducted in much the same way as a big M&A deal, in tight secrecy by a small group — and then leaked to the press.
I didn’t see the League Cup final but Jamie Carragher’s description of it is quite enjoyable from an Arsenal vantage point
https://www.skysports.com/football/news/29327/12287907/tottenham-bottled-carabao-cup-final-says-jamie-carragher
Portuguese refereeing crew for the Villarreal match. Diario AS says:
“El portugués Artur Dias dirigirá el Villarreal-Arsenal
Ya arbitró al equipo castellonense en la vuelta los octavos de final de la Europa League contra el Zenit en 2019.”
In other words Villarreal and this fellow are old friends as of 2019.
The Spanish sporting press go into considerable detail about the referees, quite likely due to fears of corruption. That’s neither here nor there, but later in the article it does say that the same referee oversaw Arsenal’s 6-0 defeat of Ludogorets in the 2016/17 Champions League, when one of the Arsenal players was Santi Cazorla. It might not trying out to be important but I guess you can never predict these things with complete certainty.
Anyone wanting to buy a football club would be crazy to do so before the government decides what it is going to do with regard to ownership regs and what laws are needed to make those new rules possible.
As for Ek and the “legends” it has been widely said that whoever he is, he’s a better option than Kroenke.
Remember when Kroenke was a better option than Usmanov? Remember when KSE was very cosy with Thierry Henry?
Be careful what, and who, you wish for.
As for Arsene Wenger’s offer to come back and help us, God forbid.
Hey Cynic, it’s good to see you in here. By the same token as the potential buyers may be driven off by the uncertainty of regulation and laws, the current owners (crazy or not) must have the same incentives for being driven off. Which could mean there is no time like the present for buying a club. Just postulating …
Hey Mr Kroenke! “If you want to win championships…” you get a man like this involved!
Celebrate the ’71 Double with Goonerholics Forever.
Frank McLintock, the skipper, whose drive carried his team to the Double. 56 apps 5 goals
My 2-cents on the Kroenkes saying that they will not entertain offers for the club is that it suggests the ESL or something similar that changes the governance structure of the game is still feasible. Real-estate investors are used to being patient.
Cynic@45: What probability would you put on the UK government putting statutory ownership restrictions on football clubs? Most countries that impose ownership restrictions on businesses typically only limit foreign ownership in sectors deemed critical to national interests, using either an ‘off-limits’ list or a review process. To go down that road would seem to fly in the face of everything the UK prime minister says about Britain being open for business (although I will concede that consistency does not seem to be Boris Johnson’s strong suit).
Meanwhile……
It appears that Auba, Laca and
KT may all be available for
selection. Some welcome good news
Well in for the half-ton, OM.
Having one to all three back would indeed be good news, although KT3 seems 50-50 at best based on Arteta’s comments, and does They are all in contention include David Luiz?
This is KT3’s ‘You looking at me, pal?’ look:
https://www.arsenal.com/sites/default/files/styles/medium/public/images/DSC_7543_20210428125410345.JPG?itok=4wPWgsEW
Oh yes, I forgot David Luiz is
available again.
I wonder if he will come straight
back in.
Who knew — except for Spaniards, presumably — that all Spaniards on the electoral register can be called up to be citizen monitors at polling stations on election days? Real Madrid’s Marcelo has been called up for the Madrid assembly elections on May 4 and so would have to miss the second leg of Real Madrid’s Champions League semi-final at Chelsea. El Mundo says the Electoral Commission has turned down his request to be excused duty. They must be Atletico or Barca fans.
https://www.elmundo.es/deportes/futbol/champions-league/2021/04/28/608932befc6c83aa518b4597.html
Ned,
We have local elections here in England on May 6th. I have suggested that Granit Xhaka would make a perfect vote teller and as the polls close at 10pm Ned sadly miss the second leg against Villareal ! Sad but election rules are election rules !
TTG,
😂
And he’d be great at that kind of
slow methodical job too
Thanks Ned, I certainly didn’t know
that but it’s actually quite a good idea
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>