It feels somewhat premature to be facing the Wanderers from Wolverhampton again so soon after our spirited performance at Molineux but that is the result of Covid-induced postponement of this fixture due to a number of cases in Wolves’ ranks. This postponement provoked widespread media outrage and accusations of ‘abuse of the system’ for the temerity of following pre-agreed rules for Covid-related postponement. Wolves were cast by the world and his wife as self-serving pariahs for this act of self-interest that no-one else in the league would even remotely consider.
Oh! It didn’t? They weren’t? There wasn’t a squeak of the merest upset? It was another club that was subjected to prolonged outrage for a fixture postponement and labelled an uber-pariah? Oh well! How sad. On with the preview.
In the reverse fixture, so nicely previewed by 21st Century Gooner and succinctly reported by TTG, we faced a Wolves team against whom our recent record had been very poor and who would have leapt above us with a win. However, they ended that game extremely frustrated by failure to at least salvage a draw from overwhelming possession for the last 20 minutes after the unusual, nay bizarre, red card for Martinelli. They also appeared to be angry that our goal wasn’t disallowed and that our ten men celebrated their hard won victory at the final whistle. It was an extremely tight game won by great work in the Wolves’ box by our centre backs and Lacazette and we would have won by a more convincing scoreline had the Frenchman finished a great chance created by Ødegaard and Saka and/or his one-on-one with their keeper from a superb Gabriel through ball. However that game will be remembered for the unusual red card and for a superb defensive performance by ten Arsenal men. It was also a crucial victory.
The importance of that result was highlighted by the results on the weekend after it, when our fixture at the Bus Stop in Fulham was postponed because the Chavs were playing in some God-forsaken desert land against God knows whom, simply to net FIFA more sponsors’ cash and raise the profile of some Sheikh, Emir, Princeling or other middle-eastern potentate. Delightfully, our closest competitors for a top four slot all dropped points and so, without kicking a ball ourselves, we have found ourselves in a position in which fourth place is a realistic target.
Of course, a principal contributor to that excellent turn of events was our forthcoming opponent who went to the wrong end of the Seven Sisters Road and proved that the Marshdwellers do not actually need to GO anywhere to get battered. That result does give Wolves a lift for their visit to the smart end of the Seven Sisters Road as they have, as a result, put themselves back into contention for fourth place. The boost they have gained from that result will be added to their determination to make amends for their failure to take advantage of the ten-men of Arsenal in our Molineux confrontation and their apparent and inexplicable anger about our goal. I have no doubt that we will see a very highly motivated Wolves team aiming to wrest three points from this match both to assuage their grief at the Molineux result and to haul themselves at our expense into the race for a Champions League spot.
Our Opponents
According to the 5-Live radio commentary, Wolves stole the points in their last game, the East-Midlands – West-Midlands derby. Leicester were the far better team and dominated the second half but spurned multiple chances whilst Wolves barely crossed the halfway line. – but clearly just enough. Interestingly, it was the first game this season in which Lage has had his whole squad fit; playmaker Moutinho returning from a short absence and talented, 20-year old forward Neto making his first appearance of the season after a long-term injury. Wolves won that game with two 20-yard strikes one of which saw Podence, their other talented and speedy winger opening his account for the season. The return of Moutinho and Neto, the latter likely to come off the bench, will make them more of a handful tomorrow.
Wolves have won 7 and drawn 1 out of their last 10 matches. Recent results have been based more on a miserly defence than a prolific attack. Their two wins since we beat them at Molineux have taken them to 7th place only 2 points behind us, having played one game more. Once again, they have the incentive of leaping over us if they beat us.
Their new goalkeeper, Sá has had an outstanding first season in the Premiership and looks a real bargain at £6.8m. Wolves’ strong defence is generally based on three centre halves: generally, Kilman, Coady and Saiss who are extremely solid and well organised by Coady. Their wingbacks, usually Semedo and Marçal, readily push forward to join attacks but our dynamic young wingers will hopefully press them back. Wolves have a hardworking midfield likely to comprise Dendonka (Belgian for brick scheiss-haus), Neves (upon whom we have apparently cast an interested eye) and the ageing but dangerous Moutinho. Upfront they will probably start David Luiz’s head-bumping buddy, Jimenez and the tricky but until recently unproductive Podence. Against Leicester, a Wolves tactic was a long clearance from the keeper over the opposition’s high defensive line for Podence to chase. We can expect Wolves to try that again and will need to be alert to that threat.
The Arsenal
The final quarter of the Molineux game left some Gooners with a sense that we were lucky to get those three points. However, that last quarter with 10 men in no way resembled the previous three in which we could have ensured victory – and the heroic defending of those ten men ensured there was only a single ‘near thing’ and more than earned those points. The celebrations at the end which so annoyed Neves and others, suggest that our players have bonded and are focused on a common goal.
The 2-1 score line from our last game against Brentford doesn’t reflect our dominance in that game. We achieved 80% possession and produced some lovely passages of play. We really should have won far more convincingly.
This Arsenal team now looks like one that picks itself. Ramsdale is our best stopper in a very long time. The centre back partnership of Whibriel grows more assured every week and though Tierney isn’t quite ripping up opposition flanks as fearsomely as he did last season, he remains a reliable defender and attacking stalwart. The only question at the back is whether to select Cédric or Tomiyashu? The latter was on the bench for the Brentford game and well though Cédric has played in our last two games, the Japanese international is clearly the more reliable right back and provides better balance to the backline.
The first-choice midfield three is now settled. Partey is growing into the player we thought we had signed and is clearly acclimatising to the Premiership. Despite his propensity to brain-farts and cards, Xhaka is his most reliable double pivot partner and has had several fine performances of late (pacé TTG) while Ødegaard gets more and more influential with each game. In recent games we have played Partey as a single pivot with Ødegaard and Xhaka playing as right and left ‘Number 8’s’ ahead of him. As Mike McDonald points out on Gunnerstown, this switch from a double pivot is a result of the increased security of our back five. The addition of a more mobile, attack-minded number 8 in the summer will add to our goals threat next season in the way Aaron Ramsey did.
Saka is a nailed on starter when fit (tough luck Pépé) and for me, the only question up front is whether to retain ESR as a starter now that Martinelli has served his ban. I would stick with the the Croydon de Bruyne but it’s a close call. Personally, I would use ESR, Saka and Martinelli as the three prime rotational options for our two wide positions along with a leavening measure of Pépé, giving each of our youngsters a considerable amount of game time but also significant rest periods throughout our remaining fixtures and according to need within each match.
I have seen a lot of discontent elsewhere about Lacazette’s performances at centre forward and in particular his lack of goals. These criticisms overlook his outstanding work-rate, interlink play, assists, pressing and his clever movement to open up space for other forwards. He has clear flaws in that he has never been fleet of foot and this is particularly exposed when he drops deep to link play and then cannot reach the box in a timely manner to finish moves, and he just doesn’t score enough goals for a ‘centre forward’. However, he is by far our best current option at the moment. My heart sinks when he is substituted by Nketiah as inevitably our attack becomes blunter and for whatever reason, Eddie hasn’t grown into the forward we hoped he would become during his early career.
Those Siren voices calling for Martinelli to replace Lacazette in the middle have either not watched his brief attempts to play there and/or have no appreciation of the demands on a player in that central position. Martinelli is superb at cutting in at pace from the wing but he doesn’t yet have the upper body strength to deal with man-mountain centre backs when receiving the ball under pressure with his back to goal. He is enthusiastic and mobile and he is up for a fight but I think he currently lacks the physical strength to be fully effective in that role. One day perhaps, but not yet. Don’t even start with the idea of Pépé hopping on one foot in the centre!
An interesting suggestion a few days ago from Tim at 7am Kick Off is to play ESR as a false nine and I see that Mikel Arteta also discussed that possibility later. ESR certainly possesses the link-up skills Arteta wants from his 9/False 9 as well as having the pace to get himself into the box from deep to finish moves and he has acquired more upper body strength during this season. I think he’s currently a far better option. We may see either of those players play in the centre late in games as Lacazette tends to have exhausted himself after 60-70 minutes and either would offer more than Nketia. However, with fourth place now in clear sight but depending on every point if not also on goal difference, I don’t think now is the time to experiment with an internal replacement from the start unless our hand is forced by injury. We know Lacazette’s limitations all too well but we also know we will get maximum effort and clever interplay for the rest of the season and that we have goalscorers across the forward line. We definitely need to find a swifter and more incisive striker, but that is a task for the summer.
I have absolutely no sympathy for those bemoaning the loss of Aubameyang from the squad, amplified by his Barça hat-trick last weekend. Firstly, Auba rarely prospered up the middle in the Premiership and he was far better coming in from the left. When in a central crowd scene his first touch is, more often than not, extremely poor and his hold up play with his back to goal is generally execrable. More importantly, he was clearly unhappy at Arsenal and his form had fallen off a cliff while, as soon as he was dropped, the team started playing better and getting results. I wish him well at Barça unless he is playing against us.
Having said all that (too much, I know!), I expect the following starting 11:
Ramsdale
Tomiyasu, White, Gabriel, Tierney
Ødegaard, Partey, Xhaka
Saka, Lacazette, ESR/Martinelli
With a somewhat less helpful set of results from our direct competitors for fourth place this past weekend, we once again face a ‘must win game’ to keep up with the pack.
I expect this to be a tense, tight match and that Wolves will try hard to win it rather than simply sit in and try to catch us on the break as they have done in recent matches at our place. They are frustrated and even angered by the result at Molineux and as Mike McDonald observes may be emotionally driven in this game and therefore vulnerable if we can strike hard and early.
The Holic Pound
The Bookmakers appear to be offering quite generous odds on an Arsenal win by a single goal in this match at 29/5 on 1-0, 43/5 on 2-1 and 41/1 on 3-2. This Holic pound is backing 3-2 to the Arsenal.
I fear that our nerves are going to be shredded by its end.
Enjoy the game, Holics, whether there, nearby or far afield.
It’s going to be tense.
Take your Beta-blockers and when your fingernails have gone, STOP BITING!
An excellent and comprehensive preview. As a long time fan of Laca I am also happy with your thoughtful assessment of what he currently brings to the team – even without the goals.
I fancy 2-0 to the Arse,
UTA
A very interesting and comprehensive preview as to where the team currently stands Bath. I cannot disagree with any of your conclusions. I doubt I will be able to watch the game from the shores of the Red Sea, so will be more than usually dependent on this blog more the match report. My son will be keeping the countryman honour intact from the North Bank.
‘Comprehensive’ was also the first word that came to me, so make it three!
Great work, baff, and I’m with you and Noosa on Lacazette.
Think I’ll be watching this one at home rather than in the pub, but I certainly expect it to be tense too (so expect a comfortable 3-0 victory :-p).
Every fixture is crucial at the moment, so let’s hope we clear this hurdle.
COYG!
Nothing to disagree with at all, Bath. Excellent and complete preview of a must-win six-pointer. Your assessment of Laca is most fair.
A Burnley win tonight would be most welcome.
Excellent preview, Bath. Excellent.
COYG
Europa League spot?
More lupine grief please barman. This time I think we need to show them how a real celebration looks.
Thanks Bath for your outstanding and highly entertaining preview complete with topical imagery. Nearly surgical precision for sure but would painting my nails pre-match help to keep them intact?
Excellent preview, Bath.
I’m liking the cut of bt8’s jib @6 !
Traore, who only ever produced anything against us, has gone. Jota has gone. The game is at the Emirates where we outplayed the sheiks of Abbly Dabbly. Be positive mes braves !
Arsenal 3 – 1 Wolves 💪🏻
A quite excellent preview which among other things describes the importance of attacking dynamics. Although Lacazette is something of a spent force he is our only real option in that position . The fact that ESR missed training may or may not be significant but may make team selection more straightforward . We are committed to going with Laca and Xhaka in our two potential areas of weakness because we haven’t got other options. It’s a very thin squad .
It’s going to be tight but I hope we might squeak it 1-0 . I was hoping to join Countryman Junior on the North Bank But Covid will prevent that . I hope we can provide a tonic for this old chap
baff, nicely done. thank you. i don’t know what our options for the middle are, really, or if we’ll take the straws as they land. i’d like to see the team play defense like they did the last 20 minutes of our molineux game, and squeak a goal just to keep our momentum going and put paid to wolves’ quest to blow our house down. make them huff and puff, as it were.
as ttg says, thin thin thin. skinny mcskinny. turn sideways and disappear thin. maybe we see what younger youngsters can do? azeez and hutchinson, perhaps? fifteen more games? fifteen more games!
Let’s hope ESR was not in training as he had some other custom built recovery session taking his long injury niggles into consideration.
It seems everyone has written off a meaningful contribution from Pepe but I prefer to remember the telling part he played in the latter stages of last season. He’s not going to be an instant complete solution but with more playing time he has shown himself capable of scoring and assisting.
Cheers Baff. Excellent preview, and extremely, errr, thorough.
I would take any sort or win at all in this one. They will be really up for it, and this is where we need to make the away win count by backing it up.
UTA
I missed the last bar but must thank TTG for an excellent report.
Brentford can stay away for another 75 years if they bring Covid to one of our own!
I see Jack Wilshere has moved to Aarhus.
I didn’t know where that was, so I asked Trev.
Apparently, it’s in the middle of our street.
Ned@4 Cheering for Burnley over the neighbors is kind of like cheering for a rotting cockroach sandwich over the runny poo sandwich.
Always been partial to a nice bot of rotting cockroach, me.
One nil to the rotting cockroach, looks like the runny poo sandwich is crap everywhere it goes.
I have always believed that those nice chaps at Burnley would come good one day. Well done the Clarets. Now let’s take advantage of that!
Mee!
I’d like to do a big poo on Spurs.
But nobody would be able to tell, so I won’t waste my time.
Thanks Bath, an excellent and very enjoyable preview. I love your sarcastic style. I hope our Small French Box (la casette) will explode into the face of the guest wolfs in the Grove. We need his goals very much and I am afraid his much appriciated assists and overall good perfomance won’t be enough.
Anyway, I prefer sofa-hiding instead of nail-biting but you can do both at the at the same time.
COYG
Conte’s comments after the game don’t make good reading if you are a Spud wanting to keep him’ I am too honest to close my eyes and continue in this way ‘ .’ The situation is not good’ . ‘ This doesn’t happen to me’ . Yet again Levy wil have to go to the well to find a manager and maybe a new director of football would help as well. Paratici has not brought in quality .
This is a huge opportunity for us now. ManUre are our biggest competitor for CL and having just watched them they are awful .
Tottenham. Heh. Splendid news. Now COYG.
Boy. Conte’s comments. https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/feb/23/maybe-im-not-so-good-conte-questions-tottenham-future-after-burnley-loss?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
TTG & C100: be careful what you wish for. If Conte leaves the neighbours, he might get picked up by Man U, where he might be a good fit.
I’d like to think that Conte is savvy enough to recognize that going from a runny poo sandwich to a manure sandwich is not much of an upgrade.
It is indeed, GSD ! 🤣
Cheeky little mid-week six point jump on the competition in store? If so that’s what I’ll have please barman.
ecg @26. Either way they have certain qualities in common. 🤣
Ned,
I’m keen for Conte to leave Tottnumb. It will do them enormous damage and there are very few coaches that good to replace him.
United had the chance to pick Conte up before they signed up with Rangnick and declined to do so. I can see how he’d be a better fit as he would have more money and some better players to work with but United took the view he wasn’t the right choice and I think they prefer to wait for Pochettino
I’m keen to see S***s holed below the waterline . Conte leaving would make it impossible to retain Kane , would make it very hard to attract another top coach and would effectively screw up what remains of their season . Even an elite coach would find it hard to turn that situation around when you have Levy and Paratici to work with
TTG30: I agree that Conte’s departure from the neighbours would leave them shipping water and listing badly. Nothing not to like there. It would also make any other manager of any quality think twice about working for Levy.
As for Man U, my understanding is that its board was split on Conte. In the end, it decided to go the Rangnick route to buy time in the hope Pochettino would become available, bringing Kane with him.
There were two concerns about Conte: his forthright personality and Ronaldo. The personality they could just about stomach if he bought success. The Ronaldo problem was that the Fergie-endorsed returning hero, at 36, could not keep up with the demands of Conte’s high pressing and the work rate demanded of his midfielders. They would also have to rebuild the squad to fit Conte’s favoured 3-5-2 formation, but United is used to splashing the cash so that was less of a concern.
The Ronaldo issue will resolve itself if the reports that the player will be off at the end of the season by mutual agreement are to be believed. Pochettino may or may not be available this summer, but it is far from certain that he would choose Man U, especially if the Real Madrid job opens up. I don’t think Rangnick will be acceptable, even if he concludes he should be his own permanent successor. In such circumstances, Conte may look much more attractive than previously.
The Glazers have the money to keep him happy, and, unlike Levy, will spend it. Conte is a proven top manager and would be able to turn round the undoubted talent on the Mancs’ books.
Cheers Baff!
Champions League qualification % probability after last nights game from FiveThirtyEight.com:
Man City >99%
Liverpool >99%
Chelsea 97%
Arsenal 53%
Man Utd 26%
Spurs 14%
Wolves 6%
WHU 4
All 53% means is, it’s in our court but it’s all to do. 53% possibility is a lot higher than 20-odd percent though, and the number will be higher still if we win. Come on Arsenal.
TTG @33, that’s very nice but I remain very suspicious of such statistical analyses. I know you don’t need me to tell you but for the record it’s worth observing that football isn’t played with calculators.
Despite that analysis, I remain convinced that Manure have to be favourites for fourth place by virtue of the depth of their squad and their easier run in. It’s important to remember that our three games in hand are against Chelsea away, Liverpool at home and Manure at home. Win the latter and take at least a point from the other two and I’ll believe that we are homing in on fourth. At the moment it’s in our sights but there’s a hell of a lot of work still to be done to make it happen. Starting tonight.
COYG
I would have thought Wolves have a considerably higher statistical possibility of finishing in the top four than a mere 6% (if you want another reason to criticize those percentages).
And WHU are listed with a 4 but don’t even merit a %. ?
rumours that ESR isn’t in the squad tonight
No Tomi in squad either
“Take your Beta-blockers and…”
and it’s only Wolverhampton (out of darkness cometh shite) Wanderers
strange times
Solidity and persistence.
Oh, and goals.
Jim Rosenthal on Amazon Prime interviewed Arteta. I think it was a fantastic interview from the boss.
UTA!
COYGS!
I forgot it was Atkinson. Playing 12 men!
Pretty dire so far.
Come on Laca, show us something special for old times’ sake and before you’re yanked.
Go ahead, make them Pepe.
bt8
You’re wish is granted
Nothing less than we deserved.
Haven’t seen this spirit in ages, CYG
YES, YES, YES!!! Fucking brilliant
Finally a little bit of luck for Laca, great fight.
All right, Laca!!!!! Thank you my man!!!!!
Wow! Warm glow time. A relentless performance across the team once they got going. Invaluable three points.
Got to feel sorry for Laca. At last, he gets the ball in the net, but it gets chalked up as an own goal. Props to Arteta, too, for not subbing him.
Looks like we have more wins and better goal differential than the fourth place club, not to mention two matches in hand. Arsenal v. Manchester United on 23 April at the Emirates takes on even greater importance and not just because of the daffodils that you might see on the way there. Assuming Spring has sprung by then.
And we haven’t lost a league game since New Year’s Day when we outplayed the league leaders. That will be more than two months by the time we play next but don’t expect anybody in the media to point it out.
Great support inside the Ems. Came through loud and clear on my stream.
All’s well that ends well.
Glorious, simply glorious!
Shows the character of this group to come back against that Wolves massed defence.
A classic 1-0 down, 2-1 up !
A big win. Now we have the top 4 firmly in our sights.
One of the things you note as a long-time supporter is that some games are pivotal and some have very unexpected denouements . This was a sort of reverse of the Everton game at Goodison although they had several goals disallowed . Seasons swing on games like this especially against rivals for the top slots.
Credit to the team and for Arteta getting his subs right and for Laca and Pepe turning the game upside down. Great stuff ! Looking forward to GSD’s report
I didn’t see the game as I don’t have Prime, but I listened to a bit of it on TalkShite. However, when the commentator said there was a couple of minutes to go in stoppage time, I was in dire need of the bog and switched off the radio. I’ve only just seen the result.
Feels somewhat surreal to have fourth in our own hands, as we’re not really all that good. But then neither is anyone else outside the top three.
betabloodyblockers
indeed
still can’t breathe
Martin Ødegaard covered 12.02km against Wolves. The most distance covered by an Arsenal player this season.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>