Arsenal travel North and West from London to the heart of Birmingham to meet Aston Villa for a Saturday early evening kickoff at Villa Park. If you weren’t aware, Arsenal top the Premier League table, having won four of our last 5 (the slip at Newcastle being our last reverse) in the League, and 9 of our last 10 games overall. We sit four points clear of our opponents, making this one of our two most important fixtures before we usher in 2024.
Villa are, perhaps, a surprise member of the top four, two points ahead of the Al-Citeh Oilers and two behind Liverpool’s mugsmashers (™Arseblog). Having dispatched the Oilers with a fine attacking display in this round of midweek games (outshooting them 22 to 2 in their 1-0 victory), they will be coming home flying confidently, unbeaten in their last 11 Premier League games following their 0-3 defeat at Anfield in early September. They carry a 14-game home winning streak into the match, having last been beaten at home in the league by…Arsenal, in February of this year. That was the game with the delicious Emi Martinez own goal from a Jorginho thunderbolt, then the Martinelli goal into the empty net after Emi came forward (some say against his manager’s wishes) for a Villa corner. Finally, they carry into the game the third best record for the year 2023, behind Al-Citeh and Arsenal.
Martinez is not the only person who will be on the pitch, or aside it, who will feel keenly that beating Arsenal will show something they have had to prove. This will be only the fourth game in which Unai Emery, Villa’s thus far successful manager, has met his opposite number and erstwhile successor (not to discount Freddie’s tenure). They have split honors even across the three games, and Emery will be keen to bring his Villans to even higher heights with a victory that will bring them closer to the top of the table. Our Mikel will seek to disrupt those plans, in hopes that Arsenal will not only remain top of the table, but (depending upon other results) perhaps extend our lead. Of course, he will be doing this from the Director’s box, having been absurdly given his third yellow card of the season by the local representative of the Celebration Police after Rice Rice Baby’s game-winning header in the 97th minute at Kenilworth Park on Tuesday.
Aston Villa
Villa will arrive home having a day’s less rest than Arsenal, and carrying three long-term injuries (Buendia, Mings, and Traore). Otherwise Emery has every one fit and can start his usual 4-4-2, with leading scorer Watkins paired with Zaniolo up front, a midfield of McGinn, Luiz, Tielemans, and Bailey, ahead of a defense made up of Digne and Konsa at the corners, with Torres and Carlos in the middle ahead of the aforementioned Emi. They tend to play a high line as a result of pushing up one or the other of their fullbacks into midfield, and hopefully that’s something we can exploit with our one-touch play. They score goals, but they also give them up; we’ve scored one less than they have in the League, but our fine defense has let in five fewer.
The Arsenal
We come to the game missing yet another defender to injury; Tomiyasu did his calf and is now out into January. We’re light in midfield, given Vieira and ESR’s absences, and in spite of how well Rice is playing wouldn’t it be nice to have a Partey holding the line ahead of the defense. And as for goalkeeper, I have to believe Raya will get the nod, even though I think it continues the injustice being done to Ramsdale. But Mikel is in a pickel: select Raya, who certainly didn’t have a confidence-building game at Luton Tuesday, or Ramsdale, whose game at Brentford was less than stellar for a half, and whose confidence has been shaken to bits by being benched in such a manner?
I expect we’ll line up like so:
Raya
White — Saliba — Gabriel — Zinchenko
Ødegaard — Rice — Havertz
Saka — Jesús — Martinelli
One adjustment I could see to this is Trossard for Havertz, but given the big German’s three goals from his last four I imagine he’ll get the start. Trossard coming in and running late at a tired Villa defense is enough to bring the glimmer of joy to my jaded heart. I could also see starting with Kiwior again, in hopes we can secure the game then bring on Zinchenko as at Luton to keep on the pressure and mop up with control.
The Holic Pound
There’s not too much there until you get up to Arsenal 3-0 Villa, which can be had at 20s. If you believe Luton’s successes could be a model for Villa to follow, Arsenal 3-2 Villa should be available at 25/1.
Good luck to the travelling faithful making their way up to Birmingham on Saturday, I expect to hear your voices all the way here in California. Let’s do this! COYG!
First!
An excellent preview, scruz. I think you’ve called the starting 11 correctly – I see no sign in his interviews that MA8 has any doubts about his choice of keeper. As ever, I’ll take any kind of win but suspect this’ll be a hard game to take all three points. 3-2 to the good guys sounds the likelier of your two suggestions but I think this is likely to be a draw.
Scruz
You’ve set the game up very well. Villa are the current form team in the PL . I didn’t see the game but their statistics were impressive and Emery who left us in tatters has certainly done a better job ( so far ) there .
I would be very happy with a draw here because of their recent form, the defensive fallibility we showed on Wednesday and the fact it will stop some of their momentum.
I agree we will go with Raya ( unfortunately) but one thing that worried me at Luton was that Saliba ( in my view ) struggled against their physicality just as he did against Toney last season. It’s the only chink in his armour and the bigger problem at Villa will be the pace of Watkins and the quality of the wide players . I think they might be missing Diaby (?) . I think your suggestion for us looks right . If we emerge with anything from this it will be a very positive statement about our chances this season
Thanks Scruz,
No worries here – a solid performance and a 2-0 win and Martinez can do another one.
UTA.
Cheers scruz! Got a feeling Jorginho will start this one.
Cheers scruz, and despite Villa being the new media darlings I believe it’s time to put the screws into them. (See what I did there?)
Oh, and Villa aren’t coming home as such, they played Citeh at Villa Park.
Ødegaard brace could come in handy considering that Watkins has been scoring so freely, but a battening down of the hatches that flew open so alarmingly at Luton is what I think we need the most.
Succinct and to the point, Scruz. Your team looks good. Trossard might start having been rested at Luton. Kiwior and Jorghino to come off the bench to close down the end game rather than to start.
Also, a reminder that the GHF Predictathon leaderboard for Match Week 15 has been posted. We have a surprise entry at No 3. There is also a splendid certificate for Dr F. Jnr in honour of his winning the Tin Tack Award to admire. You know where to find both…
An interesting analysis of David Raya’s goalkeeping here (I think Trev has already made the point about his front post positioning):
Superb preview, Scruz, of a game that represents a very tough challenge for the Arsenal. While I think the visitors enjoy a markedly higher skill level, Villa possibly have the edge on ‘physicality’ (with McGann the master practitioner). The comparative tactical nous of the coaches is interesting. Unai can be expected to set his team up to counter Arsenal’s strengths and encourage them to the full from the touchline, accompanied by a very vocal 40k home fans. As you say, Mikel will need to endure sitting in his seat for 90 minutes, possibly for the first time in his Arsenal career. I hope he enjoys the view but doesn’t make a habit of being appointed there.
I think Tomiyasu might well have started at LB if fit. In his absence, I think we’ll see Zinny. Havertz likely to pip Tross for the left 8 berth.
A win by any margin would be perfect.
Thanks scruz, a fine preview of a potentially tricky game although to be honest I don’t see Villa as an actual threat to our wider ambitions this season. Much like the spuds a month ago talk of a title challenge for them is a tad early and a balloon popping 2-0 win would suit me just fine.
Excellent preview Scruz! Succinct and appetising. Thank you.
And thanks bt8 for the comprehensive review of the Luton match, a strange if exciting one as it was.
Also, many thanks to Scruz, TTG, Ned and all for the lovely lovely certificate to Faustus Jnr. He is thrilled beyond words. 🙂
Villa is on an impressive run of form especially at home where they had won the last 14 matches, since their loss to us as recalled by Scruz. But such runs are always bound to end, and why not this Saturday?
Mikel will have to watch the game from the Directors’ box at the Villa park. I feel for him — he will have to force himself to behave like a bored socialite dropping by at a soup kitchen just to not be lonely. An acting lesson or two might have been handy.
I think your starting eleven is the likeliest. I haven’t seen Villa play this season at all, but I am assuming high on confidence and at home they will come out full throttle at us. If we keep our composure and not make silly mistakes we should be able to use that to our advantage. Dominating the midfield and dictating the tempo of the game will be important, and if Rice-Ødegaard-Zinchenko play to their best we should be able to assert the control that we want to.
Let’s just keep winning.
Come on Arsenal!
Thanks for a good preview Scruz – nicely set up for an intriguing match. Villa totally outplayed the Oilers in midweek – a most unusual occurrence. They were strong in the wide areas so our full backs will need to be on it, particularly on our left side. Equally I think their defence is getable so it could be an interesting score line. If we take our chances we can end their long winning run at home.
COYRRR
Cheers scruz!
3-0. (Martinez ogx3)
Great work, scruz, all the way from Californ IA !
I’m going to slightly disagree with your team as I think Jorginho might well start in place of Havertz to keep a presumably energised and optimistic Villa under control. It will also help to add some defensive cover for a habitually wandering Zinchenko – although it might not be a bad idea against their wingers at Villa Park, I don’t see Kiwior starting, so Jorginho almost has to.
I do agree that Raya will start unfortunately although he was dreadful against Luton. As the Celebration Police have Mikel under house arrest, Jorginho’s experience will also be important around the defence.
On the positive side, an attacking Villa will leave themselves vulnerable to our own wing men, as long as the referee can stop McGinn using Saka’s calves for free kick practice.
A tough assignment today but we are a quality side with a tremendous will to win. Goals for and against over the matches played for both teams will point to a narrowly squeaked win for us. That would do very nicely.
Albert will hopefully have the communication lines open to the stands. He just needs to remember that if we do win 3-2 in the 95th minute, he must act like NOTHING has happened. Elite sport is apparently not about celebrating hard fought, joyous victories. 😳
I just noticed I’m at odds with Ned about starters and substitutes.
I think Arteta will set out to contain a very confident Villa until they have run their legs out a bit – they’ve had a day less to recover than we have and nobody beats even an out of sorts Abbly Dabbly without a lot of hard work.
We’ll see. Knowing Arteta we’ll both be wrong !
COYG.
And COWIPATOG.
That’s come on whoever is playing against the other guys, for the uninitiated, which I assume is everybody.
It turns out that COWITAPOG includes Crystal Palace, who are at home to Liverpool in the early game.
Just watching that game now bt8. 0-0 just after half-time though Palace blew the best chance in the first half and also had a penalty decision reversed by VAR, quite correctly to be honest as the ref had missed an obvious foul earlier.
Haven’t watched Liverpool for a while, they don’t look all that to me and don’t seem to have much in reserve either.
Palace just got a penalty on another VAR review, referee missed this one too 😃
And scored too,
Annoyingly the idiot Ayew is sent off for a second yellow and now Sarah has equalized.
To be fair to Ayew I thought the second yellow a bit harsh.
Hodgson booked now too, I wonder if he is the oldest person to get a yellow card.
Now the Palace keeper is injured and the sub has come on. Fingers crossed for a heroic last stand. Liverpoo certainly don’t deserve the win.
Sigh, jammy fuckers
Trev@14: You are probably right about us both being wrong. 🙂
Cheers Scruz, excellent preview.
Villa is flying high now and they will come out fighting toe to toe against us. And this could suit our wingers. I fully agree with your team selection Raya, Zinchenko and Havertz will start.
A hard battled 2:1 to the good guys Jesus and Ødegard on the scoresheet.
COYG
If you search Google for “Pythagoras in Boots” and “How Good is David Raya?” you will find a deep-dive video analysis made when Raya was still at Brentford that comes to the same conclusions as many in this fine establishment about our No 1.
scruz nailed the starting XI.
And Bournemouth are winning 3-0 at Old Toilet.
Uhhh, not that I imagined…
COYG
Well, that was deeply disappointing. Huffing and puffing but failing to take our chances and as a result, succumbing to Villa’s fast start. This is not a PL winning side.
We played fairly well overall (though ran out of steam in the last 15-20, it was very noticeable), but the finishing/final ball was pretty poor.
I didn’t see the full game but from the highlights, it looked as if we had enough chances to win or at least salvage a draw. Three points dropped, and it changes the Liverpool game from an ok-to-draw to a must-win.
I have no idea about whether the disallowed goal was handball, as the rule is a dog’s dinner. It seems the goal might have stood if Nketiah, and not Havertz had poked the ball in the net, as an accidental handball transforms from being an offence to not an offence in those circumstances.
Could of, should of sort of a game Ned. Basically I agree with Ollie, we played ok and certainly a damn sight better than Shitteh did at Villa. Having had a nights sleep now I can accept we just have to suck it up and move on. Eindhoven is just a free hit so winning the home game against Brighton is our next step to get back on track.
OM@32: They happen. We’ve scored a lot of goals late on. At some point, that well was always going to run dry.
We are a very good side . We have the ability to win it if our best players all stay fit and crucially if we get a striker who can give us more presence upfront and who can help us turn our superiority into goals .
Keep the faith
Arsenal Women play Chelsea today and 58,000 are expected, a new record attendance.
Not that many mens teams can attract that big a crowd. Best of luck to them against Chelsea
Ned @31 – the handball rule is simple enough. Let me try to help.
It seems that a defender can handle the ball in the area accidentally, although that is a subjective judgement, in which case no penalty will be given. But if an attacker handles the ball in the area it can be accidental unless it leads to a goal being scored in which case it can’t be accidental and the goal will be disallowed and a free kick given to the defending team. It should be noted that the same player CAN accidentally handle the ball outside the area though.
We are then left with the whole issue of the hand / arm being in a natural or unnatural position. If anyone is still reading, the brighter ones amongst you will already have realised that this involves another subjective decision and should also depend on what the player is doing at the time. Can you sprint, run, jump, dive to head the ball or turn with arms glued to your sides. No. But how outstretched are they ?
There is also the question of defenders running around in the area with their arms tucked firmly behind their backs to avoid a “deliberate” handball. However, if the ball were to hit an arm tucked firmly behind the back, surely that is an unnatural position which would lead to a penalty decision.
Don’t thank me – glad to be of help any time !
Re: Trev @36. Brilliant synopsis of the PGMOL’s seat of the pants approach.
OM: Half time score:
Arsenal 3 (Mead 8, Ilestedt 36′, Russo 38′)
Chelsea 1 (Kaneryd 13′)
Sounds like that’s the place to be.
Trev@36: Thanks for the explanation. I had no idea it was that simple. 🙂
👍🏻
Luton doing us a favour so far…..
Though I did tempt fate with the Palace / Liverpool score yesterday so…
Anyway, anything Luton take would be handy as personally I think Shitteh are still our only threat this season.
Sure enough 115 are now leading 2-1. I expect they bought the game at half time.
However, all is not lost as Luton have taken off Townsend, once of a swamp, and brought on Sambi Lokonga to sort things out,
Shitteh hang on and it was a bad weekend for us, manure’s humiliation notwithstanding, just as last weekend was a good one. Many a slip and all that to come
I should of added Chavski and Wham notwithstanding as well as they slipped to ignominious defeats and there pain is never unwelcome. Wham losing 5-0 at Fulham is I suppose some belated revenge for the 75 cup final.
Just waffling my way to the 50 as I wait for the spud / Riyadh game to kick off.
Chipping in an additional word…
*Pre-assists.*
Thanks Ned, every little helps.
Son just gave away a foul where he tackled someone who then went down holding his face as if in agony, Son was annoyed at the ref and failed to see the richness of the irony in the whole situation.
I’ll consider it a one-two.
*applies Ødegaard-not-from-yesterday finish*
Hard to know who I want to lose this game, obviously the spuds but I really despise the nation state owned nonsense teams too,
😉
Not sure you realise how far I had to run from to get from 48 to 50…😬
Hopefully they can carry on with their fucking up from a winning position record Matt, now that they are 1-0 up.
Son the obtuse roasted Trippier the aged and crossed for Udogie the useless to put the spuds in front. They recently spudded there way to a PL record of losing from 1-0 up so let’s see.
Hmmtne spuds can’t extend their record as the aging by the moment Trippier has just been humiliated again by Son resulting in an easy tap-in for Richarlison. Sadly scoring the goal has caused heart problems for Richarlison as he is repeatedly thumping his chest – must be the shock I suppose
Well in for the half-ton, Ollie. You must have barely needed to break stride…
Spuds agent Trippier looking truly useless against Son. But then Trippier was useless last game against Everton too. Talk about gifting goals to the other team …
I wouldn’t be surprised if a hit squad did it’s work and we see a different right back for Saudicastle next week.
I’d be remiss not to say well in Ollie at the half ton, and impressive hard yards toiled in the buildup by our Osaka correspondent.
Cheers bt8, the recognition of your peers is of course everything as compared to the cheap baubles of success
Though I’d have to check the cheap bauble cupboard before I was 100% sure of that
>>>>>>>