And so to the Stadium of Stone for the second leg of our Carabao Cup semi-final against Chelsea on Tuesday evening.
We are one game away from a Wembley final, the winning of which could do so much to kickstart the accumulation of several pieces of silverware.
We shall be defending a one-goal lead from the first leg at the Bus Stop. Two well-taken goals by substitute Alejandro Garnacho turned the Blues’ xG of 0.75 into a final and, for them, flattering scoreline of 2-3, breathing life and West London hope into a tie that should have been dead and buried.
Not for the last time, the new head coach at the Bus Stop, Liam Rosenior, resurrected his expensively if seemingly randomly assembled show ponies, as I read them described, rather amusingly and accurately, I thought, with some deft in-game adjustments to a starting XI that had undewhelmed.
It was substitutes to the rescue a week ago, too, against Napoli in the Champions League in the form of two assists from Cole Palmer, brought on at half-time. And again last Saturday, to turn around a two-goal deficit against West Ham in the league, although it meant bringing on four regular starters and a fifth who had replaced the hamstrung Jamie Gittens in the first half, all of whom were intended to be rested for Tuesday evening.
Please curb you sympathy.
We have a mixed record in the League Cup against Chelsea: in terms of games, we have won four, lost four and drawn one; in terms of ties, we have won two and lost four, including the 2007 final in Cardiff, where we ended up with nine players after Emmanuel Adebayor and Kolo Touré got reds right at the end. In semi-finals, we lost in 1998, when the competition was the Coca-Cola Cup, and won in 2018, the debut season of Carabao’s sponsorship.
In the games we won, we have never done so by more than one goal. The January 14 first leg was the first time we scored more than twice against them in any League Cup game.
Liam Rosenior
I understand that the old door to the manager’s office at Stamford Bridge was removed from its hinges some years back and replaced with a revolving one. Rosenior, the latest incumbent to pass through it, was brought in from the other club in Chelsea owner BlueCo’s stable, Racing Club de Strasbourg Alsace, after Enzo Maresca marked New Year’s Day by getting the old heave-ho from BlueCo’s owners, Clearlake Capital and Todd Boehly. As head coach at the Ligue Un club and bearing the same title in SW6, Rosenior can, at least, have no illusions about the job spec.
He has, however, made a strong start to the other part of his job, getting results on the pitch. The first leg is the only one of his seven games that he has not won.
The Opposition
At Strasbourg, Rosenior mostly, but not invariably, played a 3-4-2-1, but at the new gig, he has stuck with his predecessor’s back four. Wesley Fofana and Trevor Chalobah are the most likely starting centre-backs, with Benoit Badiashile staying on the bench, to which he was banished at half-time on Saturday.
Levi Colwill, arguably the pick of Chelsea’s central defenders, is a long-term absentee having torn his ACL. Tosin Adarabioyo is also out injured. The AFCON-winning Senegal international (have to put that in for BtM) Mamadou Sarr, has been suddenly recalled from his loan in Strasbourg, but is unlikely to be back in London in time to feature.
Club captain Reece James, who missed the first leg because of injury, and the irksome Marc Cucarella are likely to start either side of them. Both are inverting full-backs in the modern fashion. They will spend a lot of the game higher up the pitch if allowed to. James’s elite passing will be a threat. Malo Gusto and Josh Acheampong are alternatives on the right if Rosenior reprises playing James alongside Fofana in the middle of the back four, as he did against Napoli. Jorrel Hato is the cover for the mat of hair that could start an argument with an empty field.
Robert Sánchez, who belied his inconsistency by pulling off some good saves in the first leg, should be in goal.
The engine room might comprise Moisés Caicedo and Andrey Santos, the latter of whom has been manning the ship pending the return from injury of both Romeo Lavia and his cover Dario Essugo.
However, against West Ham, Rosenior started with Caicedo as the sole pivot in a 4-1-4-1, which allowed him to play four attacking midfielders. A rehearsal for Tuesday evening, perhaps, when Chelsea will need both to attack and counter our capacity to impose smothering control in midfield.
The attack at Rosenior’s disposal is undoubtedly potent. Palmer missed the first leg but returned for a half against Napoli and the full game against West Ham. He and fellow 10, the often gravity-challenged Enzo Fernández, would be among the first names to be inked onto the team sheet.
The youthful and dangerous winger, Estevao, missed Saturday’s game because he is on compassionate leave. He returned home to Brazil, and it is unclear when he will return. Even if he is back in time, the bench would seem the right place to be after such a long flight.
That would leave Liam Delap, Pedro Neto, Joao Pedro, Garancho, Marc Guiu and Tyrique George vying for the remaining two starting places. Pedro Neto’s ability to play on either wing would likely put him at the head of that pecking order, followed by Joao Pedro, who has the most goals and assists for the club this season and is developing a partnership with Palmer.
The Arsenal
The performance and goals at Leeds will have eased the nervousness of the team and fans that manifested in the preceding few games — or at least, if the crowd at the Ems can not get behind the team for a semi-final after the showing at Elland Road, I don’t know what can gee them up.
I will rehearse my habitual expectation that Arteta will play his strongest available side, except for sticking with Kepa as his cup keeper.
Mikel Merino has joined Max Dowman off games. For all of Arteta’s artful ambiguity in his pre-match press conference, Bukayo Saka ain’t startin’, and nor should he be if there is any peril to his participation later in the season.
I also favour the physicality of Kai Havertz and Viktor Gyökeres from the off for what is likely to be a fast and furious start to the game. Thus:
Arrizabalaga
Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori
Havertz, Zubimendi, Rice
Madueke, Gyökeres, Trossard
Even though we are at home, one goal is a slender advantage against a team that has quality goals in it from multiple players and more than its fair share of practitioners of the dark arts. A tight and freisty game is in prospect as the Blues look to add to their record of winning three of their past four Carabao Cup ties in which they have trailed after the first leg.
Weathering the early stages without conceding an equaliser will be essential, but I suspect the final half hour will be key, turning on which coach makes the right subs, whose side keeps the leveller head, and perhaps even which team can keep 11 players on the pitch.
As a quick reminder, unlike earlier rounds, second legs of Carabao Cup semi-finals do not go straight to penalties if the score is level at full time, but have 30 minutes of extra time, and then penalties if necessary.
Let’s get the job done in the 90, or rather the 96 as Arteta always now refers to the length of games. I will hazard 2-1 on the night to give us a 5-3 win on aggregate.
Enjoy the game, ‘holics, near and far.
Because we are full service at Castle Ned, the update to the GHF Predictathon leaderboard for Matchweek 24 has also been posted (h/t to Scruz for both). I must warn you that it doesn’t make for pretty reading, but we do have a new leader. You know where to find the gory details…
My guess is the ref will be busy. Between Enzo, Caicedo and Cucurella they have some combustible types. Should be a fun game and we will have too much for them.
Smashing preview Ned. Very hard game to call. I think like the first leg it will have goals and hopefully we will score more than them. Winning the Carabao could have a big psychological impact . Fingers crossed !
Brilliant work, Ned. Properly excited now, and for the Rumbelows of all things.
Do agree, winning a trophy of any kind for this era of the club is vital — and the mental impact and edge it could give us into the run-in would be crucial. Here we go. UTA!
Thanks Ned, excellent preview. Your team looks fine though I have
no idea who MA will start to be honest.
An early goal to knock the wind out of their ugly sails and a 3-1
win. Any win or draw will do of course as it’s a semi final.
Cheers Ned.
I somehow doubt Havertz will start another match so soon after Leeds, but we shall see.
We are better than them and should beat them fairly comfortably, but then we didn’t do that against Man U so…
Think it will be a tough one. Somehow it brings back Champions-League related trauma.
And you managed to remind me about that 2007 final, I remember a particularly irksome Chavs fan in the Auld Alliance that day.
Let’s march on towards a first trophy this season.
Another excellent preview from the monks at Castle Ned, thank you. It tells us everything we need to know. I like your team and your predicted scoreline. I expect them to make this a bloody battle and there won’t be much opportunity for football. There WILL be cards and it will be no place for shrinking violets – but I don’t see any of those among our players. As others have observed, an early piece of silverware would be a fine aperitif for the main courses coming later. Tonight is the first step.
Rodri, whose ‘Get Out of Jail Free’ card was in evidence twice in the match against the neighbours on Sunday, wants the referees to ‘be fair’ because he believes that Solanke’s first goal should have been disallowed for a foul. When you consider what he, and C130y, have got away with in recent years, this stance is utterly absurd. He and the likes of Silva have become so used to the green being rubbed smooth for them both on and off the field that they believe they have a divine right to getting every decision. #RuleBendersFC
https://www.skysports.com/football/video/12606/13502258/manchester-city-s-rodri-was-left-disappointed-as-hes-adamant-that-spurs-opening-goal-should-never-have-stood
An interesting perspective on the fanbase to which, I think, many of us may be able to relate (£):
“It does not help that Arsenal is the world centre of parvenu supporters, whether that be international tourists or – even worse – the north London know-nothings who decided to take an interest in the beautiful game in middle age because their son-in-law talked about it over the quinoa salad one Sunday afternoon.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2026/02/03/arsenal-supporter-we-are-most-insufferable-fans-in-football/
Shite article. Not worth putting in here, especially on the day of a semi final. Pure click bait.
Bath@8: The words ‘pot’ and ‘black’ come to mind.
An update on the Chelsea squad: we won’t be seeing Tyrique George, who has been loaned to Evertion for the rest of the season.
OM@the previous drinks: The St Mirren lad is 18-year-old Evan Mooney, a right winger who can also play as centre-forward. He will be going into our academy. He made his senior debut for St Mirren in October 2024 and has made 23 appearances across all competitions, but none as a starter. He got 9 minutes in the Scottish League Cup final in December, when St Mirren beat Celtic 3-1. He has nine Scotland U-19 caps.
We’ve also signed 18-year-old centre-back and England U-19 international Jaden Dixon from Stoke, who got him from the neighbours’ youth set-up in 2023. He has made a couple of senior appearances in the Championship as a substitute.
Beyond Nwaneri’s loan to Marseille, our outgoings this window have been from the Academy: Albania international centre-back Maldini Kacurri has been sold to Grimsby, Sierra Leone U-20 international forward Osman Kamara has joined Blackburn Rovers, and U-21 central midfielder Louie Copley is being loaned to Crawley Town for the rest of the season.
@11 thanks Ned, a couple of promising young lads coming along in the more traditional way or at least the way I was used to anyway. We haven’t overpaid by any means so though both may be long shots given our depth I wish them the best of luck!
Albania to The Arsenal to Grimsby? Maldini has already done a journey….
Dixon from Stoke!
Auspicious stuff. We’re onto a winner there!
Cheers Ned. Excellent preview, as ever.
I think this game hinges on whether Chelsea can go full helter-skelter mode and make this feel like a throwback FA Cup tie, in which case anything could happen. Or whether we smother them out of the game and keep control from arm’s length, in which case they won’t get a sniff because we are much better.
Personally, I’m expecting a really professional performance from us tonight and a demoralised Chelsea to either lose all semblance of discipline in the last twenty minutes, or simply roll over and accept defeat after seventy minutes of being shut out of the game.
My only concern is Kepa. He’s a good keeper. But Raya is really special. Both as an individual and as a stylistic fit for this team. So, whilst Kepa is at least the fifteenth best PL keeper, Raya is at least the third best. And certainly the best for our particular set-up. I hope that disparity doesn’t cost us. (But I don’t think it will and I’d still start Kepa, as he’s the best number two we could possibly have and I’d like to get at least two seasons out of him before he decides he needs more game time, which ain’t gonna happen if he gets dropped for every big cup game).
Three weeks out for Saka. Hopefully back for the NLD. He will miss Chelsea tonight, Sunderland and Wigan. Time for Noni to step up.
https://x.com/sr_collings/status/2018689553272386038?s=61&t=cVFjCyGkt4y-Ne45LtfqkQ
Thank you, Sir Ned of Castle Monk ! And for your continuing efforts with the Predictathon. I don’t dare look.
I’m surprised Cucurella is turning up tonight. I’m sure I told him I’ll “see you next Tuesday !”
And why has Estevao granted compassionate leave ? Has the poor lad only just realised which club he joined ?
Come on you Reddsss !
GSD @14, I share your concerns. I hope we don’t get drawn into any scraps and can rise above their shithousery. You summarise well the issues around the goalkeeping position – not an easy decision. I expect Kepa will start and rises to the challenge with his best ever game.
Cheers Ned!
More on fans, from a more PC source but still behind a paywall:
“If you can wave a magic wand and have everybody in the stadium supporting the team from the first minute to the last minute, irrespective of what goes on on the pitch, that would be your ideal scenario,” he says. “But people will say they pay their money and that the players are paid well and living out their dream. People will say they are entitled to their opinion, so that would be a fantasy world.”
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7006749/2026/02/03/tottenham-arsenal-west-ham-crowd-stadiums/
Laurie@4. Welcome to the drinks! There’s a tipple of your choosing behind the bar for you. I agree about winning the League Cup. It could really set the tone for this group, showing they are ready to win this year. Plus, we’ve an almost inexplicably poor record in the League Cup, especially compared with the FA Cup. I’d like to see us lift the trophy!
Our last victory in the League Cup provoked the question
‘ Who scored the winning goal in the League Cup Final for Arsenal and was dropped immediately after the game!? ‘
Nice one, NBN. Properly excited. I despise €he£ski and I want to smash them…I wonder if Mikel would go for Eze instead of Trossard for a physicality boost?
I don’t post the colors for the Rumbelow’s Milk Cup 😂 (cheers, and welcome to the bar, Laurie…hope you visit regularly and bring more of your Northmen with ya!💪🏽), but thanks to Ned’s write-up, I almost relented.
Let’s just do a professional job…an early first goal for the lads would go a long way to stifling them lot from the bus stop. Let’s do this.
MCMBD
Thanks Ned for the enjoyable, and cautiously optimistic preview.
You have chosen a very strong team. I think Mikel too is likely going to do that. But I won’t mind giving Zubimendi and Rice a break and bring them in if needed. I will trust some of our lesser spotted but supreme professionals for this one, especially buoyed by the home crowd.
Kepa
White-Saliba-Gabriel-Calafiori
Ødegaard-Nørgaard-Eze
Madueke-Jesus-Martinelli
Rice, Zubimendi, Kai, Gyökeres, Trossard et al. would be the finishers to see this out.
The 2-1 scorelines looks more realistic, but I feel defensively strong and would go for 2-0. We play out a composed and tactically secure match and make the right moments count.
Come on Arsenal!
Heh, TTG @ 21!
Arsenal: Kepa, Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie, Rice, Zubimendi, Eze, Madueke, Gyokeres, Martinelli
Subs: Raya, White, Mosquera, Calafiori, Norgaard, Lewis-Skelly, Havertz, Trossard, Jesus
Mikel is certainly going for it!
Ode injured?
Apparently yes.
I have to say Liam Rosenoir is well suited to managing the chavs. Trying to sound intelligent but not quite getting away with it.
Thanks for the kind words, all.
Only 8/11 for my team selection! No James for Chelsea, either, and Palmer starts on the bench. Don’t these managers read GHF? I know they get the big bucks for making the right team selections, but here you really get what you pay for. 🙂
Ødegaard is reportedly out of the squad as a precautionary measure after sustaining a (previously unmentioned) minor injury against Leeds, and is expected back for the Sunderland game at the weekend. We shall see.
Pleased to see Eze getting the start.
CoYG!!
“Here you get what you pay for”
Ned, do the monks get paid accordingly, I wonder. 😎
All very cagey so far
Be nice to score early 2nd half, just mentioning it Mikel 😀
CoYG!
Get in! Kai Havertz!!
Wonder what we’ll sing to the Chavs as they go home gutted
Professional from us. Just smothered them.
VAR a disgrace. Fofana handles the ball and it looks a clear penalty to me, albeit I no longer understand the handball rule. But the blatant foul by Chalobah on Gabigol is as clear as day. He slides in, makes a good tackle, is unlucky that the ball breaks through to Gabigol anyway and realises he needs to bring our player down as he’s already gone to ground himself. He lifts his foot in the follow through to make a blatant and deliberate trip of a player who otherwise is one on one with the keeper. It is as clear a penalty as you could wish to see. And VAR don’t award it. They aren’t fit for purpose.
That channelled the George Graham years, even down to the 1-0.
But we are on our way to Wembley…
bt8@32: No one gets a penny more than anyone else.
Difficult to elevate anyone to MoTM from a supreme team effort, but if there is anyone, it has to be Rice.
Over the two legs 4-2 was a fair result, should of put them away 1st leg
really but doesn’t matter now. They don’t have a bad attack but got
absolutely nothing out of us all night. Job done and one we go
GSD@35: I can’t disagree with a word of that.
Ned. Can we get the monks on VAR?
Jurrien Timber nails it: ‘When you win over two legs twice, I think you have done an amazing job.’
A defensive masterclass and as Merse said, “Arsenal could have defended like that all night and Chelsea still wouldn’t get a chance.”
And what a lovely Sixty Million Down the Drain finale. Love the way he pointed to the badge on his shirt.
If Mourinho was in charge of us tonight and achieved that result he’d be lauded to the skies . The clue was in the XG. They needed to score and came up with something under .4 I think . They didn’t knock the skin off the proverbial (Declan) Rice pudding
TTG@44: Their xG was 0.68; two shots on target and one big chance. But their xG from open play was only 0.25.
You and Bath@43 are right that we put on a defensive master class — and it wasn’t desperate, last-ditch, backs against the wall defending; it was a sustained exercise in control to which the show ponies and dark-arts practitioners from the Bus Stop had no answer beyond gasping for air. The gentleman doing the co-commentary on the US broadcast, a Brit and I assume an ex-pro as he described Delap rugby tackling Martinelli off the ball as ‘proper English football’, opined going into the half-time break that Rosenior had won the first half as Chelsea had stopped Arsenal from playing attacking football, and had us just where they wanted us for the second half when the away goals would inevitably come as they had for Liverpool, Man U and Kairat. At the end of the game, he admitted that we had ‘just about deserved to win over the two legs’ before another round of praise for how well Chelsea had played. Muppet.
So Chelsea needed a goal tonight but their brilliant hipster doofus IT Crowd manager starts five at the back? Thanks for keeping Palmer, Estavio and Garnacho on the bench for 70 minutes!
Rosenior thought that Chavski had “dominated the areas they wanted to” in the 2nd half but just lacked “quality moments”. I laughed out loud when I read that tosh.
We outplayed them in a fairly open first game and then outplayed them again in a fairly tight second game.
gsd@13, the tyro dixon is the nephew of our own lee dixon.
great win (after a great preview, ned). i share u4gn’s thanks to the linked-in rojunior. though between estevao, garnacho, caicedo, and enzo? pffffffft.
Scruz@48: Jaden Dixon looks more like Marouane Fellaini than Lee Dixon.
Wham bham Havertz style – no Owen goal this time.
A very professional performance and we were well deserved winners over the two legs.
Their David Brent coach already seems under pressure and blamed injuries and the schedule of a game every 3 days – welcome to our world.
At this level football is a very tactical game .UFGN is spot-on . Maybe he re entered a team who needed to win by two goals who got them on a May night at Anfield 37 years ago . The Georgie Graham playbook worked much better
Chelsea needed early momentum and they got flaccid containment. When they needed a real push it never came . I like the David Brent comparison .That’s who he has been reminding me of . He has got an impeccable record in his first month except losing to Arsenal twice in big boys football
You’re on a roll, Uplympian, well in for the half-ton!
TTG. ‘Flaccid containment’. Brilliant!
Last night was very much what I expected from us. Professional. I wasn’t worried all evening.
The Gyok, Martinelli and Noni trio have never really fired up front. They lack technical security and someone who can change the pace of the game and pass the ball effectively. (They all play at full speed all the time and Gabigol is the best passer, as compared to when he plays with Saka and Havertz, and is the worst). So, we were relying on Eze to show some guile and knit those 3 together. It didn’t really happen, so we weren’t particularly threatening. But our positioning and off-the-ball work was stellar. Eze, Noni and Gyok in particular looked like they have now understood where they need to be when we don’t have the ball. It is so valuable to be able to hold other teams off like that and just be solid.
I really liked what we did last night. We looked like a serious outfit. The goal at the end was the least we deserved after the two penalties that no-one in the mainstream media seems to have noticed VAR failing to award.
I have been reflecting on last night’s defensive masterclass and thinking back to the QF which the soon to be anointed Invincibles played against the same opponent way back when. Last night MA8 and his team demonstrated a degree of tactical and strategic nous that suggests to me that Mikel may possibly be a smarter coach than Arsene and that he may possibly exceed the latter’s achievements in silverware accumulation. A high quality deep squad does help but Mikel knew that we were already ahead and that we didn’t have to take any risks to win the tie and waited for the opponent to go all in before administering the coup de grace. Bravo!
I can’t possibly comment on a match I didn’t see, but well, I did in fact catch the added time (and so the goal) once I got home, and it was an extremely stress-free few minutes 🙂
Let us say however, that I am not entirely surprised by the scenario, and by the no-fuss execution on our side.
>>>>>>>