And so to the Stadium of Stone, where we entertain the SW6 Spendalots on Sunday afternoon in the last game of the Premier League’s Matchweek 28. Yes, just ten must-wins to go.
Barnum and Boehly’s Circus last visited just shy of a month ago for the second leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final. They arrived needing to overturn a first-leg deficit. Their still-new head coach, Liam Rosenior, was praised for his tactical acumen in hunkering down, with the acclaim in the popular prints not diminished one iota by our progression to the final, having won both legs. Funny old game, football.
That said, Chelsea has thrived under Rosenior, establishing a level of consistency in securing results that they struggled to achieve under Enzo Maresca. Aside from the League Cup matches, they have won eight and drawn two of Rosenior’s other ten games.
As a result, at time of writing, they are sixth in the Premier League, three points behind the defending champions, who have played a game more, and Michael Carrick’s resurgent Red Mancs, who occupy the coveted fourth spot that will secure qualification for next season’s Champions League, bringing spondulix much-needed in the heavily indebted parts of London SW6 and Manchester M16.
Not Maresca’s 4-2-3-1
On the surface, Rosenior’s Chelsea team plays a 4-2-3-1 as they did under Enzo Maresca. However, there are key differences in how the two versions try to play through the opposition’s press, in their pace of attack, and in how Rosenior deals with what doctors call Amorin syndrome, where a star is forced into the team out of position because the system is sacrosanct, yet the star cannot be dropped.
As Carrick has done with Bruno Fernandes at the Old Toilet, Rosenior has done with Enzo Fernández: remove him from the double pivot, where his skills are not ideally suited, although he is a good enough footballer to do a decent job, and push him further up the pitch to where his abilities are a better fit and where the player prefers to operate.
Fernández now starts on the left side of the three attacking midfielders. At times, he fulfils the role of a winger; at others, he comes inside, a junior 10 to the roaming Cole Palmer’s lead. With one of the first-choice wing/full-backs, Reece James or Marc Cucurella, overlapping and underlapping on the wings depending on where Palmer and Fernández have moved, this allows Chelsea to attack with a front line of five or six.
It also lets Rosenior deploy a player who is considerably more press-resistant than Fernández alongside Moises Caiceido in the double pivot. For now, that is Andrey Santos. He undertakes the unglamorous but indispensable role in the system Rosenior evolved at Strasbourg of playing third-man and one-touch bounce passes to keep possession while waiting to break the opposition’s press and get the ball quickly up the pitch to attackers waiting in space between the lines.
What? I hear you say; not much of that in the Premier League, where teams squeeze up with high lines, press man-to-man relentlessly and space between the lines is rarer than a hair out of place on Arteta’s head? This isn’t Ligue Un!
And, gentle reader (gentle reader!), not only are you correct, but I can see that you are ahead of me.
Wait and bait
Rosenior’s cunning plan is to stretch the gap between the opposition’s back line and its second bank of pressers to the maximum extent by using a wait-and-bait strategy.
At Strasbourg, his defenders patiently circulated the ball around the edge of their penalty area during the build-up, trying to lure the opposition’s press as close to their goal as they could, to open up space in midfield. As soon as the opposition had taken the bait, Strasbourg launched the ball into the newly created gaps into which its attackers had dropped, and they were off to the races.
This high-risk tactic depended on Strasbourg not losing possession while they waited and baited. Reliable, press-resistant DMs were essential. Rosenior also made the keeper an active part of the back line to create a numerical overload.
In Ligue 1, the tactic largely succeeded, at least until this season when teams learned how to counter it. Nonetheless, Rosenior has carried the concept with him across the Channel. Santos in the double pivot is one indication. Fernández on the left, rather than an out-and-out winger like Alejandro Garnacho or Jamie Gittens, is another.
A third is some hairy moments when Chelsea gets turned over with Robert Sánchez far from his net. Sánchez, though more skilled with his feet than many give him credit for, is not as good as Djordje Petrovic or Mike Penders, the two keepers Rosenior had at Strasbourg, both on loan from Chelsea, as it happens. Rosenior has been flexible enough to adapt.
Rosenior has also been fortunate in having had a benign run of fixtures to implement his tactics. Brentford is the only top-half team Chelsea has faced in the league, while Charlton and Hull were their FA Cup opponents, and they played Pafos and a struggling Napoli in the Champions League. We are the only top side Rosenior has faced, and he lost both times.
It remains uncertain how effective Rosenior’s wait-and-bait strategy will prove against elite pressing teams and those capable of pinning back Chelsea’s full/wing-backs and cutting off the supply lines to Palmer, Fernández, Pedro Neto and Joao Pedro, thereby negating the greater speed and directness in Chelsea’s attack. After Sunday, they face away games at Villa Park and Anfield, and host Newcastle and both sets of Mancs. Proof of the pudding, and all that.
The opposition
Most of Rosenior’s likely selection for Sunday will be familiar enough that reciting an inventory of Boehly’s extensive, expensive, and seemingly haphazardly assembled squad is unnecessary. For some reason, Beachcomber’s Anthology of Huntingdonshire Cabmen comes to mind: ‘Acheampong, JK; Adarabioyo, Abdul-Nasir; Badiashile, B…’
The preview of the League Cup second leg https://www.goonerholicsforever.com/?p=12772 can serve as a reminder, if needed.
I will therefore only relay the injury and suspension updates. Levi Colwill, Jamie Gittens, Marc Cucurella, Filip Jorgensen, Dário Essugo, and Estevao are all gone in the fetlock. Wesley Fofana is suspended after receiving two yellow cards during the draw with Burnley last weekend. Mykhaylo Mudryk remains on the long-term suspension list (What a dope, I would say, if I had Trev’s humorous touch). Reece James will return from injury, and Romeo Lavia, who rejoined the matchday squad for the Burnley game for the first time since last November, may get some minutes.
The Arsenal
Arteta was his usual obscurantist self about our walking wounded. Mikel Merino is definitely out. Ben White and Kai Havertz are almost certainly and probably unavailable, respectively, I would venture. Max Dowman played a half for the U-21s on Friday. He is en route to rejoining the first-team matchday squad, but not there yet. Bukayo Saka trained this week after twisting his ankle against the neighbours last weekend, so one assumes he is available.
Martin Ødegaard or Eberechi Eze is the big question. Playing both if Saka is not 100% to start is not inconceivable.
Raya
Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapié
Zubimendi, Rice, Eze
Saka, Gyökeres, Trossard
City has cut our lead to two points, so yet again, this is a must-win. Chelsea possesses a potent attack with players able to conjure up goals, but is vulnerable defensively. Rosenior says his job is to identify our weaknesses. I think we will be better at exploiting theirs. I’ll go for 3-1.
And did I mention that we could be celebrating St Totteringham’s Day on Sunday, possibly even before we kick off, if the old boys do their job at the Cottage? If so, it will be the earliest St Tott’s Day on record, beating 2008’s March 9.
Enjoy the game, ‘holics, near and far.
Cheers, Ned. 3-1 sounds heaven-sent. Have the monks been praying a full load?
Your usual fine preview Ned . Most Chavs that I know are genuinely pessimistic but I think this will be a tough one . We only beat them at home in the last minute when they rushed forward in a vain attempt to score . Much may depend on how restorative last week’s win was and the effect on Gyokeres and Eze . Arteta hinted he now knows how to use Eze and I think he will start at 10 . I think a tough 2-1 victory will ensue for us and we will hopefully stretch the lead to five points again .
Thanks Ned, great preview and a sound review of the Chav approach. Watched a bit of their game against Burnley last week, the new manager bounce looked over to me and it was back to bad finishing and panicked defence. Let’s hope that continues and I’m happy to join the 3-1 club.
Think we might see Calafiori back for this one, and, fingers crossed, Kai.
Maybe off the bench for Kai would be wisest I suppose
Great preview! “Barnum and Boehly’s Circus” lol
I had forgotten about Mudryk. What a waste of money and talent.
Too bad Leeds couldn’t get an equalizer. They were very good in the first 35 but then City upped their game.
Which of Cucarella or Caicedo will see red tomorrow? Maybe both?
3-1 us; Eze to continue where he left off vs Spurs.
I hope Benny starts tomorrow mostly so he can wind up Chupacabra if he plays but also I think that during pre-game warmups he would be willing to stand along the center line and put a toe into Chelsea’s side every time Rosenior looks at him.
Cheers Ned!
Just win.
Mudryk who? Heh, indeed.
I am afraid Chupa is off, as if says in the preview indeed. Unless I don’t know who you are talking about, which is also entirely possible. Though I see U4G made the mistake already, so that is why that reflection came about, I suspect.
Enjoyable and informative preview Ned, as always! Thank you!
And thank you GSD for the fun review of derby, thanks!
I agree that Eze would likely start, and will be entrusted with more of a traditional closer-to-the-striker #10 role behind Gyökeres. Martin and Kai on the bench to present different problems in the last thirty minutes, and hopefully to ensure complete control to see out an already taken comfortable lead.
I think we will see Calafiori tomorrow for greater attacking thrust and unpredictability, and Martinelli in front of him to offer defensive support, as well as counter-attacking threat.
Raya
Timber-Saliba-Gabriel-Calafiori
Eze-Zubimendi-Rice
Saka-Gyökeres-Martinelli
I dislike this weekend’s opposition no less than I dislike last weekend’s, and find as much, if not more, joy in beating them. The home crowd hopefully will make the outing all the more energizing for our team.
In any case, we just simply need to keep winning. There’s a league to be won.
Come on Arsenal!
Excellent preview yet again, Ned. Every day’s a school day!
U4GN@4- I believe that the Cockroach is out for today. Much as I loathe that insect, te has developed an ability to control Saka so I’m glad he’s out for that reason too.
Chelsea is a club with no redeeming features from top to bottom. Let’s send them home with a resounding victory.
ecg@5 – Chupacabra- heh!
Re 8 above – by which I mean, with us being victors. Apologies for any confusion. It was a late night after seeing Manc Miserabilist Morrissey last night. I expect the Arsenal to be no less glorious than he was.
CER. Are you saying Every day is like Sunday ?
Ollie, I was happy in the haze of a drunken hour, but heaven knows…..
Haha, excellent. Well, hopefully, you and I and everyone in this bar won’t be miserable come the end of the day!
An excellent preview as always, Ned. The prospect of a 3-1 home win coupled with a result for Arsenal B on the banks of the Thames earlier in the day would make this a very enjoyable start to the new season and put a veritable Spring in my step.
I hope to glimpse Kai in red but not Lavia in blue.
COYG. NLFE.
A piece, complete with illustrative bar charts, for your potential St. Totteringham’s Day enjoyment:
https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/cwygre5geq2o
Thanks, Ned, for another brilliantly written preview.
For all the talk of formations and tactics – tasty little mints that they are – surely the most important thing for our players to remember this afternoon is to “STAY IN YOUR OWN F#%KING HALF” during the warm up. Didn’t take Mr Rosenior long to bring out the Chav in his character. Still, it will have ingratiated him to the horrible hordes from the bus stop.
A tasteless, classless, despicable club still cheating its way through the financial rules. With nothing left to sell itself for overinflated prices, it will rely on this year’s mountain of debt – £355m – falling between the two stools of last year’s regulations and this year’s newly changed set. Well, that and APTs being almost impossible to value. Shame.
Any win at this stage will be marvellous. Come on you Rreddsss !
Thanks Ned – top preview
Need to win, need to win, need to win …
2-0
UTA
Just your usual exemplary preview, Ned. Thanks again.
Just our usual must win Sunday fixture,
Just do it, Arsenal.
Despatch these blue bar stewards to the midden with the rest of the ordure.
1-0 Fulham 😂😂
Alex Iwobi 2-0!
Such fine work Ned. As I commented to my dad an hour ago when we discussed your post “that’s why I don’t write previews anymore”. Those that do them here maintain a fantastic standard, and this is right up there. Much appreciated.
Lads, it’s Linked In Liam and his band of investment opportunities. 3-0 Arsenal. Next.
Raya
Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie
Rice, Zubimendi, Eze
Trossard, Saka, Gyokeres.
Bench: Arrizabalaga, Calafiori, Lewis-Skelly, Mosquera, Norgaard, Madueke, Martinelli, Jesus, Havertz.
Nailed the team Ned, hope you’ve got the score too
Happy St Totteringham’s Day to one and all!
Thanks for the kind words, all. And a happy St Totteringham’s day to one and all.
bt8@14: Thanks for the link. The key sentence between the charts is “Arsenal have finished above Tottenham in 25 of the past 33 Premier League seasons – and will certainly do so for a 26th time this campaign. North London is red.
Cheers Matt! A fun day so far… let’s hope we do the same as our old boys against
the Chelski cheating thugs!
Thanks Ned for another great preview. It’s another just win match – as they all will be until the end of the season. It’s against the despicable chavs so gaining the 3 points will be all the sweete.
COYRRR
Come on the big second half, Arsenal. Play to your ability.
Much nervier than it needed to be at the end there! Not great for this old art of mine.
A good (not brilliant) and very important victory. We had a lot of chances in their box and the game could have been won more comfortably and earlier. I liked the subs but would have wished to see Havertz and Norgaard a little earlier.
If Lavia is available in Chel$ki’s annual end-of-season sale, we should snap him up.
Win the next nine.
Made it over the line despite playing tentatively after Chelsea lost a man. The result of course is what counts, and we snapped it up. Hincapie looked excellent apart from the OG, especially in the first half. I don’t know what’s wrong with Martin but we could have used his dribbling and hold up abilities today.
Never in doubt, except for the nervy bits.
Just back from the game
Wot Ned said at 30.
And a very happy St Totteringham’s day to you all.
Likewise just back from the game, via the bar at Block 10 then the Supporters Club. This is becoming a habit! I blame CER but I’m sure he blames me!
The nervy bits were truly frightening. Thank Dennis that Raya is as good as he is! When the defence had several meltdowns in the last 15 minutes he won us those three points. A massive win! Nine to go. As my dear old ma used to say when I was going to exams: “Keep the heid!”
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>