Next up in a tough pre-interlull sequence of four away fixtures, is Brighton & Hove Albion at the Amex Stadium, perhaps the toughest challenge of them all, given current form. Can this Arsenal squad extend its current run of victories?
This is Brighton’s tenth consecutive season as a top flight club since gaining promotion in 2016-17. The Seagulls have gained wide respect for their management structure, scouting network, shrewd managerial appointments, player development and consistently successful player sales and replacement. Credit appears to be due to owner Tony Bloom and his advanced data modelling approach which they use to identify suitable players, coaches and support staff.
Brighton flirted with the lower reaches in their first three seasons in the Premier League but from 2021-22, they have finished 9th, 6th, 11th, 8th and 8th. Potter had them playing attractive progressive football and gained his poisoned chalice of head coach at the Bus Stop on the strength of that ninth place. De Zerbi bettered that by gaining sixth place and their first foray into Europe which undoubtedly affected their league position the next season but has finally landed in the cesspit up the road. Hürzeler has maintained Brighton’s exalted status with two consecutive 8th places. The German coach has an impressive record (42 wins, 26 draws and 27 defeats in 95 matches since taking charge in June 2024) and has developed a highly competitive team producing free-flowing, attractive football but he just can’t resist the occasional snide comment and seems to have a particular problem with the Arsenal.
That spikiness may be a result of his own record against the Arsenal. Since promotion to the Premier League, Brighton’s record against the Arsenal is 5 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats which is very respectable given the relative size of the club. However, Hürzeler’s own PL record is 0 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats plus another defeat in the League Cup whereas Potter delivered 3 wins and de Zerbi 2 wins against the Arsenal. Do you think he might be up for this game?.
Brighton underwent a massive squad overhaul in the summer with 11 new signings costing roughly £150-180 million while letting go established players for some £160-190 million. Major purchases include Vušković, a promising 19-year-old Croatian centre-back from Sp*rz; Yohanna, a highly-rated 19-year-old Swedish winger from AIK; Struijk, an experienced 26-year-old centre-back from Leeds; Andrés, a defensive midfielder from Stuttgart; Azeez, a winger from Millwall; Hadjam, a left-back from Young Boys; Costinha, a right-back from Olympiacos; Svoboda, a centre-back from Venezia and David, a forward on loan from Union SG (another club associated with Bloom’s Jamestown Analytics). Midfielder Baleba left for Manure for ca. £70m, van Hecke joined Sp*rx for ca. £50m, Rushworth left for Coventry after a season on loan for ca. £22m while Welbeck joined Chelsea for £5m and Julio joined Burnley for £3m. It might be observed that each player could have chosen to join a better outfit.
The Seagulls got their PL campaign off to a great start with a 4-0 home demolition of Villa but then suffered a narrow 4-3 defeat at the Bus Stop despite 74% possession and matching the hosts’ 6 shots on target. 3-0 down after 30 minutes, they were the better team for the rest of the game. Their next game was a 1-1 home draw with Leeds despite again dominating possession and taking 20 shots at goal. In their last league game they again dominated possession at 70% as they trounced Coventry 5-0 away, and they were by far the better team after the first 10 minutes in their comeback win in midweek at Old Trafford. Clearly, taking the lead against this team is no guarantee of success.
Hürzeler generally deploys a highly fluid 4-2-3-1 formation which dynamically shifts into a 2-4-4 or 4-3-3 during the build-up phase. However, he started with a back three against Manure. Will he revert to a back four against the Arsenal? Your guess is as good as mine. I suspect he may not.
Brighton have a significant injury list: Mitoma, Minteh, Hinshelwood, Wieffer, Ferguson, Tzimas and March are long term absentees; Azeez has returned to full training but Hürzeler says that he will not be ready for this match; O’Riley played 60 minutes and Rutter 8 minutes in midweek and both may be involved from the bench against Arsenal. Hadjam has reportedly recovered from his injury vs Manure and will probably be on the bench.
In their 4 league games to date, Hürzeler has usually started the following XI:
Verbruggen
Kadioglu, Vušković, Dunk, Boscagli;
Groß, Atari
Gomez, Yacouyé, De Cuyper
Kostoulas
I have to confess that I only recognise Verbruggen, Dunk, Vušković and Groß in that XI. Dunk and Vuškoviċ have looked a reasonably solid centre-back pairing this season but I would expect Saka, Tzolis, Ødegaard, Guimarães, Merino and Havertz to be capable of unsettling them with their high press and fast interplay though high crosses in open play will be of little value. Groß was a major force in their midfield against Manure and effectively ran the game and he will need to be looked after (in the nicest possible way) by someone, probably DR41. Groß, Yalcouyé and De Cuyper might be regarded as their major threats although Brighton’s goals have so far been shared around. In four games each, Groß has 2 goals and 2 assists, Yalcouyé has 2 goals and De Cuyper 1 goal and 2 assists. Hinshelwood, who is currently injured, scored 2 goals in a single appearance and four other players, including the two centre-backs, have one goal each. Brighton currently sit in 7th place and are the top scoring team in the PL with 13 goals, having conceded 5, and their goal difference of 8 is the best in the league.
What about the Champions? With Konsa proving a fabulous deputy for Saliba, the only question mark in defence is at right back. According to MA8 on Friday, he is “very optimistic” that Mosquera, White, Timber and Hincapié will be available for selection. It would be simply unheard of if all our full-back options were available to begin to share the heavy load that position now calls for. However MA8 can be extremely Delphic in his answers to press conference questions and we may be fortunate to have just one of those players ready to start, hopefully at least, Timber. Salmon had an excellent match against Ipswich at RCB and he looks so composed and competent; if we are short for right back cover the youngster could be useful on the bench to provide cover, though I thought Zubimendi did very well at RB in midweek and may be pencilled in as cover for that position as well as in midfield. In midfield the big question is whom to add to Rice and Ødegaard: Guimarães for forward drive and penetrating passing or MLS for defensive cover? Although Merino could add a bit of both I suspect MA8 might reserve him for reinforcement of our central attack if necessary. I expect Guimarães to be the third starting midfielder.
In our generally excellent midweek showing, the player whose performance might have thrust him into the next starting XI was, of course, Max Dowman, but at 16, a run of first team games would be asking too much, despite his huge talent. Dowman may possibly make the bench but careful time management is clearly the order of the day for someone of such tender years. Madueke’s performance against Ipswich cemented his right wing back-up position but he still has work to do to displace Saka despite our number seven not yet hitting his best form. Unfortunately, neither Gyökeres nor Eze produced performances in midweek that will give Mikel Arteta any selection headaches for Brighton. They will both be on the bench. I expect to see us to start with:
Raya
Timber Konsa Gabriel Calafiori
Ødegaard Guimarães Rice
Saka Havertz Tzolis
I predict a tight, hard-fought game. Brighton will employ a high press and will work hard to regain the ball as far upfield as possible – much like ourselves – and if unsuccessful in that, will present us with a double row of defenders in a low block. We will need to be at our slickest in playing out from the back to beat that press and must move the ball quickly into attack before they can reset. Ødegaard and Guimarães will be key components to a victory. I fear that this game is likely to be settled by a nervy one goal margin, or may possibly end in a draw.
The Holic Pound? You can get 8/1 on both 1-0 and 2-1 to the Arsenal, or 17/2 on 2-0 to the Arsenal, 14/1 on 0-0, 15/2 on 1-1 or ‘the value bet’ of 15/1 on 2-2. If you don’t suffer from terminal Celtic gloom, as I appear to, you can plump for 3-0 or 3-1 which are both offered at 14/1. I would be delighted if we could keep another clean sheet but this feels like a game in which we may concede and we will have to score more than a single goal to win. Thus the Holic Pound is going on one of Dave’s favourite scorelines: 2-1 to the Arsenal.
Enjoy the game, Holics. It’s not being shown live in the UK so happy stream-hunting for those of that persuasion.
An excellent preview, Bath, that identifies both the scale and the specific pitfalls we face at the Amex. I think we will come away with a 2-0 win, but it won’t be as stress-free as the midweek trip to Suffolk.
The chevrons descended before I could reply to OM and GSD in the previous drinks. OM made a sound call not to write off Gyökeres this early. There will be games and stretches of games when we will need a battering-ram CF. Last year, Mike MacDonald said we wouldn’t see the best of the Swede until his second season. Of course, that requires us to see him.
GSD, not to be more nit-picking than is my want (:)), she was born Catherine Jones. Zeta was a forename that later acquired a hyphen as a suffix; shades of the Hill Woods becoming Hill-Woods. Nonetheless, you are right that she should now be called Zeta-Jones, and that MLS should always be Lewis-Skelly, never Skelly. I don’t know when MLS acquired the hyphen to join his parents’ family names, but my guess is that it was at birth. It is disrespectful to call him otherwise.
It is also good to see him recalled to the England squad alongside Konsa, Rice, Eze and Saka. Madueke has quietly been dropped.
(An earlier version of this drink misspelt the name of Catherine Zeta-Jones, as OM’s gimlet eye spotted.)
That’s a very detailed and informative preview, Bath. It leaves me a little conflicted. On the one hand, Brighton have made an impressive start to this season and have to be seen as a very competitive opponent on Saturday. On the other hand, they’re fielding a bunch of players that, with the exception of one, I can’t recall ever hearing of. How can Arsenal not win against such an assembly?
I agree that it will be a very difficult game. It always is down there. I’d be happy with a win of any kind and tend to agree that a one goal winning margin is probable.
The team you’ve predicted is the one I would start. Absent Saliba, I think it represents the strongest eleven that can be fiielded from our very strong squad. No doubt Mikel will endeavour to share the load with some movement to ‘finishers’ as the game progresses to an end.
Cheers, baff. Tough one, but I would go with the 2-1 ‘holic pound.
That’s a terrific preview Bath which sets up a 3pm Saturday kick off nicely. This Saturday 3 pm business is very unusual and won’t catch on ! What a weird time to play football. I’ve expressed my dislike for the Amex before. I found it a charmless ground but Brighton are a dangerous opponent and the 1-0 win we gained last season was one of our most important.
I must admit looking at the Brighton roster reminds me of the criticism Wenger suffered for playing teams constructed almost entirely of foreigners . Bloom and his algorithm produce a very effective trading model but I bet it takes Brighton fans half the season to learn who their players are……and then they sell them !
I think we will repeat last year’s 1-0 win but it will be a hard match
Cheers Bath – interesting stuff on the history between the two sides -easily forgotten.
Since when did Premier League games begin at 3.00pm on a Saturday afternoon ? This is outrageous disrespect to fans who have long since committed that time to a host of other activities. Even C100 has gone on holiday !
Have to admit this fixture always worries me but our squad must now have the strength to ensure at least a win – and hopefully a drubbing.
Thanks Bath
I hope we win 3-0, all controversial penalties, and see the head of their despicable manager explode in the process.
UTA
Just checking in from Northern France. Saw the Chelski score. What the hell happened?
Chelsea were dire and Xabi looked bewildered. Brentford were workmanlike but not a lot more.
Bt8
Sorry, I thought Brentford were terrific. They were second best in the first half but were very solid defensively, scored from a set piece and then brought on some excellent subs. They have a real method. Chelsea flattered to deceive upfront but missed Joao Pedro .
Brentford are unbeaten and up to third. They are a very well coached side .
Chelsea have shipped seven goals since they brought in Emi Martinez and they also conceded three at home to Leeds
Thanks Bath for the informative preview, and Trev for the fun report of the Ipswich match!
Is Mosquera not back fully fit? Hopefully we will have White at least back on the bench. It may be too early to play Timber the full 90 minutes.
I agree with your team, but I think Rice will be the more central of the midfielders and Guimaerães as the left sided 8.
Brighton away tends to be tricky, but if we can keep the defensive side robust, as we tend to do nowadays, we should fine enough edge to score a goal or two. A 2-0 away win will be perfect.
Come on Arsenal!
By all accounts Zubi looked tidy at RB midweek.
Ned,
I think I will take nit-picking to an extreme and say
that it is Zeta-Jones and not Zita 😃
Anyways, I will continue to call MLS MLS as it is nice
and short. As ever I am a bit conflicted about our players
being called up for international duty but I suppose if he
is happy then there is some value though I can’t see it
myself. And three weeks is just ridiculous. Wasn’t that
stupid World Cup enough?
Thanks for the preview Bath, gives a very good
overview of the current state of play for the seagulls.
Difficult to play, chippy manager and an eye for a good
player. Seen them a couple of times this season and
they looked good but were wasteful against Leeds.
It’s a bastard of a time to play them after three in a row
away from home but hopefully we can grind out a result.
I’d start MLS and Benny Blanco personally but other than that I expect the
same side as you and yours may be more in line with MA’s thinking
given his midweek selections.
OM@12: Well spotted. I have penitentially corrected @1.
I must have had St Zita of Lucca in mind. That’s my excuse, at least, and I’m sticking to it. The actress was named after a ship, I read.
I read that too Ned, lucky it wasn’t the Titanic or Golden Hind I suppose
OM@15: 🙂
Are the fixtures worked out by a computer these days or a committee of the hard of thinking. It seems mad to me that after three weeks of the new season we face four consecutive games away from home followed by an extended three weeks long international break. International football should be suspended until the greedy, conniving crook who sits at it’s pinnacle has gone. He clearly has no respect for the international game so why should anyone else ?
There’s an interesting piece on Brighton on thee BBC site this morning;
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cm3wjl29qp4go
Good on Tony Bloom, nice story.
Shame you’ve ended up now with a dick for a manager.
UTA
Good article thanks, Bath.
Hurzeler is clearly a capable coach looking at where Brighton stand today. As Noosa says, it’s a shame he often feels the need to have a snipe at the Arsenal. I still hold a dislike of the name of Brighton and Hove Albion due to another little twat they signed – Neal Maupay. He managed to get himself chucked out of Marseille after Brighton moved him on and had now signed for Seville. Hope he visits a dodgy barber there…..
Returning to our fitful discussion of the finances at the Bus Stop, the latest edition of the FT’s business of sport newsletter (https://www.ft.com/content/40222e79-3ee7-4388-8362-7d06c7f71f69 £££ sub required) predicts that Clearlake Capital will reorganise the ownership vehicle now that it has bought out Todd Boehly and Mark Walter’s combined 25% stake for a reported £950 million, valuing the club at £5 billion. This figure includes at least £1.4 billion of external debt as of June 2025, a total that is likely to have risen since then.
Putting the Chavs into what is known in private equity as a continuation vehicle would allow Clearlake to perform a bit of valuation sleight of hand and let any unhappy investors in its funds that hold BlueCo equity get out. As the newsletter — and some distinguished members of this fine establishment — note, “the hard yards are still ahead. Chelsea’s owners have to date made little to no progress on either redeveloping or leaving Stamford Bridge, easily the biggest factor in increasing the value of the club”.
It also notes that the Bus Stop faces another year without revenue-generating CL football, a situation that could repeat if yesterday’s performance at the G-Tech is any indication.
Thanks Bath – a fact filled interesting preview. Your Arsenal team looks spot on and well suited to put in another winning performance against a tough opponent. This being our 4th consecutive away fixture has hopefully got the players fully tuned to playing this type of fixture with a 2-1 win for the good guys.
COYRRR
Looks like you nailed the starting selection, Bath.
Raya
Timber, Konsa, Gabriel, Calafiori
Rice, Guimaraes
Saka, Odegaard, Tzolis
Havertz.
Bench: Arrizabalaga, Hincapie, Merino, Zubimendi, Lewis-Skelly, Eze, Madueke, Dowman, Gyokeres.
U Next are kindly giving me a collection of sad spud faces as the camera pans round
the crowd after another home defeat. They were rubbish.
That’s a bastard, good goal I suppose for them but I
thought we should have closed him down a bit better.
Pffff… two goals of the lifetime…. Lucky bastards Brighton
C’mmon Arsenal!
A really shitty day at the office, should of made it 1-1 just before
half time and instead 2-0 down, bad at the corner and 3-0.
I haven’t seen any of the game but have been listening on dot.com. At the risk of being called out for ‘negativity’ it sounds like we haven’t really turned up and have been given a proper spanking. Shit happens.
More a miserable day at the office, one of those when you just can’t catch a break, than a spanking. They scored three goals from an xG of 1.33 (0.73 from open play). We got zilch from an xG of 1.58. That two of their goals went in off a post points to ‘fine margins’, but we managed only two shots on target all game. As OM notes, had Saka’s gone in and we had gone in 1-1 at half-time, the result might have been different, especially as they scored their second immediately after. Yet there can be little argument that Brighton got the bit between their teeth, and we ran second-best.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>