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Complacency is Not Our Friend

May 17th, 2026 by

Courtesy of Arsenal.com  – We want it back!

And then there were three!

As the season winds its way to its terrifying exciting do or die conclusion this Monday night will see The Arsenal play their final home game of the season against Burnley. To be honest this is one of the easier previews I have ever had to write, everything that needs to be said has been said at varying lengths already. Firstly, Sky’s usual pig-ignorant disregard of the match-going fans (no surprise!), secondly our options at right-back (I will be surprised if Mosquera doesn’t start) and thirdly the need to maintain focus on one game at a time (of all things, a Japanese doctor provided me with a timely example of complacency just this week!). On we go then to our starting XI…………

The Arsenal XI

Raya

Mosquera Saliba Gabriel Hincapié

Rice Lewis-Skelly

Saka Ødegaard Eze

Gyökeres

This is the XI that I believe Mikel will start. Personally, I would start Havertz up front, and would also include Leo on the left. No doubt others amongst our Holic community will have their own thoughts. Basically, I wouldn’t argue with any of them because in the cold light of er… Monday night, we should certainly have more than enough defensive strength and attacking ability to see off Burnley regardless of who starts and who finishes the game. Is that a tad dismissive of Burnley? To be honest not really, I think it’s an honest assessment of the two sides, but on that note, let’s have a brief look at Burnley.

The Opposition

Burnley have already suffered the indignity of another one and out stand in the Premier League.  They were relegated mathematically a couple of games back but were probably down by Christmas in most people’s minds. What went wrong? Well, obviously they made the elementary mistake of not firing Little Scottie Parker before the season started. Ignore history at your peril. Bournemouth knew, and look at them fly now. Additionally, the quality of their recruitment was simply not good enough. Yes, they spent some money and there was plenty of churn from the Championship squad but punts on the unproven young and desperate elderly are rarely going to work. They’ve shipped 73 goals so far and have won only one league game since October. Given the nature of parachute payments, I expect they will bounce back in good time, but I can’t imagine it has been an enjoyable season for the Burnley support. 

But what can a Japanese doctor teach us?

I had a routine medical procedure this Thursday, a planned leg angioplasty with stent insertion, after a previous balloon catheter had failed to clear a peskily occluded section of artery. All went well until it was time to insert the stent and it was realised that we didn’t have one big enough to fit snugly in my un-Japanese sized artery! Ah well, these things happen you are probably saying but in fact two weeks earlier in a pre-op meeting I had checked this very point with my surgeon – are the stents big enough? I asked. No problem at all, he breezily replied. As the title of this piece says complacency was not our friend. You think it’s an easy one but it’s the little things that get you! Anyway, fortunately we have Mikel Arteta and his team. They have never struck me as men to stent on the pre-game research.

What will happen?

It is our last home game of the season and the league is agonisingly close. The crowd will be screaming us forward from the first minute on, the atmosphere will be electric (I am very happy for all ‘holics who have a ticket, tinged with a tiny slice of envy of course), and the team and the manager will be fiercely determined. I honestly don’t see how Burnley will cope. Any win will do of course, but I hope for a calming 3-0 half-time lead and a cruise to victory. That’s about all I have to say, in truth, I hope those of the supporters who don’t have transport difficulties will be able to stay and show their appreciation of this Arsenal side. They richly deserve all the praise they get, in an arduous season where others have fallen away or made excuses when they lose, we are still there and still fighting as hard as we know how.  A team that has got us to the middle of May with the PL and CL firmly in the line of sight of the mighty Gunners! We know their worth.

Have a great one all!

PS I should add for those of you with keen medical minds that I survived the operation. Actually, we winged it with a pincer movement and cleared out the blockage quite nicely so the claudication issue is solved (for now). As the doctor said afterwards, “well, you didn’t really want a stent anyway”. And people say doctors don’t have a sense of humour! 

Posted in Match Preview | 38 Drinks »

Playing Football The Arsenal Way – Back To The Old School

May 10th, 2026 by

At half-time I was considering the tactical nuance of a game that changed completely with Ben White’s twenty-fifth minute injury. By the time the match finished in the 101st minute, tactics were the last thing from my mind. I was just trying to stop my hands shaking.

That was tough. We were really put through the ringer by a resolute West Ham side, aided and abetted by an uneven performance from Chris Kavanagh, who nonetheless made the correct decision at the end of the match, in a moment that may well have a big say in where the league ends up.

But that was at the end of an intriguing match. So, if I can still my racing thoughts and rewind a touch, let us begin…

Arteta named an unchanged side. In the early stages I could not believe just how intelligently Myles Lewis-Skelly positioned himself and used the ball. He has essentially made himself undroppable. His forward passing, his turning on the ball and even his understanding of when to play a simple wall pass are all those of a much more experienced player. If I were Tommy T the England manager, then I would be seriously considering starting MLS, Rice and Eze as my midfield in the World Cup. I’d also start Saka and White, if the latter’s injury is not as bad as we fear it could be.

We could have been ahead after eight minutes when Hermannson made an excellent save from a Trossard header after a Rice corner. The Belgian’s follow up hit the post. Soon after Todibo hit a dead ball into Arteta. Older and wiser than he was when an incident at Anfield played out a few seasons ago, our manager laughed it off, offered his hand, and focused on the match.

Soon after, we were close again as Mavropanos hooked a foot around a Calafiori header from a Rice free kick that had beaten the keeper. Saliba was just unable to make it to the rebound. We were seriously on top though. We had possession, control and were carving out chances. That was until White went down (no foul given) and looked pretty miserable as he was subbed off.

Here, Arteta mis-stepped. He brought on Zubi and moved Rice to right-back. I would assume his thinking was that if he brought on Mosquera in a straight swap for White, the Spaniard would be a far more defensive presence. So, if he moved Rice over there, then he would not have too much defending to do and would still be able to affect the game. I am sure he meant it as an attacking option. But it did not work. Rice was unable to progress the ball to Saka, passing back to Saliba far too often and leaving our talisman bereft of service. Worse still, was that we lost our grip on the midfield. Zubi was fine, but MLS gels more naturally with Rice at this point and we slightly lost our way. MLS had a learning moment as he was turned by Summerville – who ended the game with a yellow card but responsible for three of our players getting the same for taking him down – and he went on to take a shot that went wide but was still a sign of the match swinging somewhat; West Ham had not been taking shots!

Kavanagh got worse as the half went on. He ignored a blatant foul on the industrious Gyökeres right in front of him, then let a couple go on MLS. When he finally gave one for our nineteen-year-old, he indulged Soucek in a thirty second rant. Very odd.

On WhatsApp at half-time, wise heads opined that we needed to get Rice back into midfield. I suggested moving Zubi to right-back and telling him just to focus on feeding Saka. It is probably a marker of how brilliantly MLS has taken to his new role that none of us even considered the option that Arteta took, bringing on Mosquera to play RB, moving Rice back into midfield, and pulling MLS to left-back. I’d forgotten he could play there!

We were a bit better. Saka had a couple of wild shots from decent positions outside the box. As we passed the hour mark, Gooners worldwide got more tense. Personally, I went full-on positive. What I call the Love-Bomb. Every Arsenal action was greeted in my lounge with clapping, support and encouragement. We all deal with the anxious moments differently, and I just needed to stay super-positive and believe in the team. Or, at least, act as if I did!

After 67 mins, Zubi and Eze came off for Havertz and Ødegaard – good subs from Arteta, and easy enough for the substitute Zubimendi to take, as it was so obviously tactical. Ødegaard was immediately busy, linking up with Saka, Rice, Havertz and Mosquera high up the pitch on the right. It looked promising. Gyökeres headed over from a decent Saka cross (Unlucky Big Vik. Next one, next one!) Kavanagh started dishing out yellows like confetti at a wedding. Pablo handled the ball on the floor in the penalty box – it would have been given in Europe but no-one wants a penalty given for that. He was actively trying to get his hands out the way!

Saka made way for Madueke, who was bright and caused some chaos. In the 83rd minute, the aforementioned players on the right kept the ball and worked a wonderful opening. After some nice interchanges, Ødegaard got on the ball, played a give and go with Rice, and then managed to lay the ball off for Trossard to shoot past the keeper, the ball taking a slight deflection off Soucek. We all went wild. I screamed at the TV in joy and defiance and relief. That felt massive. There was no offside, no way VAR could disallow it, and we could celebrate that one at full tilt. I am surely not the only one who did.

There was a bit of Noni shithousing. I loved it. One of the West Ham assistant coaches got a red for something or other and before we knew it the board went up for 6 minutes of injury time. With barely two minutes to play, they sent the ball into the mixer where Mavropanos headed it down to Callum Wilson whose shot was goal bound until Gabriel made a last-ditch block off his shin. I gotta say, I was nervous as the corner came in. Bowen whipped it, Raya missed it, it bounced off Saliba’s knee to Wilson who fired it home. In real time it was hard to see if it had crossed the line before Rice blocked it. The replay showed it was two feet past the line. Arteta turned away.

But then VAR had a look. It soon became clear that Pablo had blocked Raya’s arm from punching/catching the ball. I never look at what anyone else has said before I write my reports, so I don’t know if this decision has proved controversial (although, in these days where the media try to whip up a frenzy about anything and everything, I assume it has sparked mass outrage) but there is no way to say this other than that it is a clear foul. The only issue was the time it took VAR to send Kavanagh to the screen and him to make a decision. But I suppose they all knew how important a call it was.

Strangely, after the decision was correctly given, and the goal disallowed, my TV showed for the first time a reverse angle showing Todibo clearly pulling Raya’s shirt. I’m not sure why the ref wasn’t shown that, but two fouls for the price of one ain’t a bad deal for Raya. Never in doubt.

Kavanagh kept adding time, but in the 101st minute he blew the whistle and we had won the match. There will be those who suspect we had also won the league.

Personally, I am going to do what the team should do and just take it one game at a time. This was the result we needed, and in the coming days (eight of them before our next match!) there will be time for analysis. For all that we went through today, we got the result. No-one expected this to be easy, but we march on. It is still in our hands.

Until next time, ‘holics.

Posted in Match Report | 127 Drinks »

Win, Wash and Repeat

May 9th, 2026 by

And so to the London Stadium for Sunday’s late-afternoon Premier League game against West Ham United. It was scheduled for the day before, but that didn’t suit Sky Sports, so Sunday it is. Were you asked whether that was convenient? Me, neither.

The London Stadium, née the 2012 Olympic Stadium, strikes me as a soulless venue. It certainly will feel that way after the extraordinary atmosphere at the Ems on Tuesday evening. But with just three games to go, the team will have to shut out the lack of noise and focus on bringing a successful conclusion to the season three points closer.

The venue’s saving grace, if it has one, is that it is not West Ham’s old digs, the Boleyn Ground in Upton Park, a particularly nasty place to go back in the day. Younger ‘holics might care to Google ‘Inter City Firm’, but not if they are of a sensitive disposition. 

Earlier this week, I read some remarks by Alex Fynn, a football business consultant, who argued that, for financial reasons, clubs want to replace ‘legacy fans’ with ‘global football tourists’. While most of us in this fine establishment would consider ourselves the former rather than the latter, I doubt any of us regret the end of the ugly and violent era of English football hooliganism.

Lea Valley Sinkhole

It seems increasingly likely that one end or the other of the Lower Lea Valley will host Championship football next season. At the time of writing, six teams could still be relegated alongside Burnley and Wolves, though that number could fall to four by the time our game kicks off. Either way, the clubs based in N17 and E20 are the two most likely candidates to go down.

A victory for us on Sunday would heavily tilt the odds of avoiding the drop in favour of the inhabitants of the Middlesex Marshes. So be it. Our eyes are on bigger prizes. 

Nuno Espírito Santos

The Portuguese was the first Premier League manager to get the tin tack this season, after falling out with Nottingham Forest owner Evangelos Marinakis. (How did no Predictathon player foresee that?) 

Nuno took over at West Ham in late September, after the Hammers, having won only one of their first five games, sacked Graham Potter. The long-faced, ginger-beardy one has gone on to rescue Sweden’s World Cup campaign and, with an assist from our very own Big Vik, has guided them to the finals this summer.

Nuno has injected tactical discipline and shape into his new charges, as he tends to do. However, consistent performance has been elusive. His squad has managed back-to-back league wins just twice and has secured only eight victories in total. 

He had lifted them from seven points adrift of safety to one place above the drop zone — at least until last week, when the neighbours won at Villa Park (how dire were Villa?) and the Irons were beaten 3-0 at Brentford, perhaps unluckily, as they hit the woodwork four times. Yet even then, they should probably still have lost 2-1. The big chances fell to the Bees. 

Back in the relegation zone, West Ham are a point adrift of safety, but their fate is no longer in their own hands.

The Opposition

Mads Hermansen took over the gloves in early February when Alphonse Areola was relegated to Cup keeper. Our former glove-butler, Lukasz Fabianski, has missed the entire season, save for one game, due to a back injury. 

I will take a punt that, ahead of the Dane, Nuno will switch from his customary 4-4-1-1 to 3-4-2-1, as he did in the home draw against City in March. The back three would then likely comprise another of our old boys, Konstantinos Mavropanos, and the Frenchmen, Axel Disasi, who is on loan from Chelsea, and Jean-Clair Todibo, whose loan from Nice was made permanent last summer. 

Kyle Walker-Peters and the young Senegalese El Hajdi Malick Diouf would be the wing-backs, dropping back to form a back five when West Ham are out of possession. Completing the midfield centrally would be the Czech Tomás Soucek alongside the 21-year-old Portuguese international Mateus Fernandes. He joined from Southampton in the summer to replace Flamengo-bound Lucas Paquetá. Reportedly, PSG and Man U have eyes on him for a summer move. 

If Nuno does stick with a back four, then Todibo would likely be the one to drop to the bench, along with Walker-Peters, who would be replaced at right back by the taller and defensively stronger Aaron Wan-Bissaka. 

Captain Jarrod Bowen is the team’s talisman. No Englishman has more goals and assists combined this season than Bowen’s 18, even though he has not scored in his last 11 appearances. He and the dangerously direct Dutchman, Crysencio Sommerville, will pose a threat down the flanks on the counterattack. Both will be on many clubs’ summer shopping lists if West Ham go down.

Fellow winger Adama Traoré, the ex-Fulham and, believe it or not, Barcelona man, would be the fresh legs to bring on late in the game.

That would leave one slot to fill. The Argentine, Taty Castellanos, has been playing the nine in the 4-4-1-1, with Brazilian Pablo as a 10 behind him. The pair arrived in January from Lazio and Gil Vicente (a Primeira Liga team from Barcelos in northern Portugal), respectively. Their paltry return of five goals between them, for a combined outlay of £45 million, may tempt Nuno to drop them both in favour of the veteran Callum Wilson, although my hunch is that Castellanos will start.

Our record at the London Stadium is encouraging — W5 D3 L2 — and we have scored 19 goals in our last five visits. Yet, despite their predicament, West Ham are unbeaten in their last six home league matches (W3 D3) — their longest run without defeat on home soil since their final season at Upton Park, 2015-16.

Yet, they have also lost all five of their home London derbies this season. What better time to hit them for six?

The Arsenal

It increasingly looks as though Mikel Merino and Jurrien Timber will be out for the rest of the season. Everyone else is available, Arteta says. That would include Kai Havertz and Martin Ødegaard, one assumes. The skipper is the selection conundrum.

I have gone back and forth on whether we will see the same XI that started against Fulham and Atletico to maintain the rediscovered rhythm, or whether Arteta will opt to manage tired bodies and keep the whole squad primed for the final dash to the wire. At the time of writing, my pendulum has swung to:

Raya

White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapié

Rice, Lewis-Skelly, 

Saka, Ødegaard, Trossard

Gyökeres

City’s draw at the Hill Dickinson last Monday has put the title back in our hands. Doku’s last-ditch equaliser in the ninth of the six added minutes — really? — means we likely still have to win our final three league games. Our margin for error remains zero. 

Nevertheless, we should beat a team with the league’s fifth-least potent attack and the third-leakiest defence. It is particularly vulnerable to set pieces: it ranks second in the league for goals conceded from set pieces and is top for those from corners.

The gentlemen of the turf suggest that a 1-0 or 2-1 away win is the most likely outcome. I would suggest that, even with West Ham scrapping for survival, we can win 3-0, provided we shake off any hangover from Tuesday’s celebrations. 

Three league games and a Champions League final to go. No time for the faint-hearted or the weak-willed. Believe, believe, believe and win, win, win — and then win one more.

Enjoy the game, ‘holics, near and far.

Posted in Match Preview | 44 Drinks »

Playing Football The Arsenal Way

May 5th, 2026 by

Playing Football The Arsenal Way

A magnificent night of football at The Emirates stadium ended with Arsenal deservedly making the final of the Champions League for only the second time in our history. The scenes at the end showed what it means to the players, the fans, the manager and everyone associated with our great club. This was the biggest European night at the Ems and from the moment the team arrived in the bus, it felt like it. Thousands arrived early to greet the team, and the energy was only ramped up from there.

The pre-match tifo read ‘Over Land and Sea’ – referencing the amazing support our fans offer the club. The ships were perhaps a nice reference to the Spanish Armada, a fine historical precedent for a Spanish invasion repelled with a classic British combination of steel and insouciance. Although tonight there was more of the former than the latter – despite Ben White getting a special Sir Francis Drake tattoo on his left bum cheek to mark the occasion.

The team was unchanged from Saturday, MLS keeping his position and putting in a remarkable performance that all but guarantees the end of the rumours we might look to cash in on him this summer. We won’t – that lad is a keeper (as in, we should retain his services, not stick him in goal).

Across the board, our players put in a shift. Viktor Gyökeres followed up his best game for us with one that was almost better. He worked his balls off, and showed some real quality, even holding the ball up in a way I did not think he had in his locker.  He missed a difficult second half chance on the half-volley, but rather than blame him for the miss, we should take heart from the move that saw us move the ball quickly from Gabriel to Trossard to Hincapie to Big Vik. That is how to use him. We even gave him balls in the channels to run onto and he thrived. Keep playing to his strengths, Gunners.

The match started with us dominating the game but not creating clear cut chances. The crowd were immense, willing the players on. In the 35th minute Griezmann brought down Trossard from behind in the box. I think it should have been a penalty, but the ref gave nothing and VAR kept quiet. If the ref had given it, I think it would have stood, but then again, I thought the same when Eze was fouled last week. Certainly, Atleti got the rub of the green throughout the tie. I have got zero time for Barcelona (horrible club) but ask any of their fans why they had a man sent off in both QF legs against Atleti for last-man challenges, yet Pubill was given a yellow for cynically hauling down Gyökeres in the second half and they won’t have an answer I can repeat here. I don’t know the Spanish for ‘cheating wankers’, anyway.

We took the lead just before half-time when Saliba played a ball into the right channel for Gyök to latch onto. He held it up well and crossed deep, the ball finding Trossard via a slight deflection. The excellent Belgian twisted and turned, got a shot away which Oblak palmed into the path of Saka, who reacted quickest to burst through two defenders and knock it home from point blank range. Absolutely deserved and the already noisy stadium went wild.

We rode out the second half. At times we dominated and looked so secure, at times Atleti put their foot on the ball and we had to dig in. But at no point did they seriously threaten our goal. They could have had what would have been a hugely unjust penalty after a Cala tackle, but the ref gave us a free kick after Gabriel threw himself to the floor moments earlier. Apart from that, we weren’t threatened. This is an Atleti side who are supposedly much better in attack than defence, but over two matches they managed to score a single goal, from a penalty that was only awarded because UEFA have perverted the handball law in such a disgraceful way that all sane observers agree they have to change it before next season starts. Put another way, they were damned lucky to score one.

What we have already achieved this season, given our squad and injuries, is essentially a miracle. Arteta is a bloody genius. If he had Kane, Olise, Doue and Kvaratshkelia then we would look better in attack. But he has Raya, Gabriel, Saliba and Rice, so we look good in defence. Make no mistake, Saka is our only attacking player who would make it into a PSG or Bayern team (and we have not had a properly fit Saka all season). But none of their keepers or defence would make it into our team if we had everyone fit (my Kingdom for a Timber!).

So, we rely on organisation, guts, discipline and no small amount of quality. But, we don’t have truly elite attacking talent on the pitch as much as our direct CL rivals. That’s just a fact.

You know what else is a fact? Neither PSG nor Bayern will fancy playing us one little bit. We are a fantastic football team. We have four more games this season. It is time to bring it on home.

Until next time ‘holics.

Posted in Champions League, Match Report | 109 Drinks »

Realise Your Dreams, Gunners

May 4th, 2026 by

We are now at the business end of the season and the Arsenal are in contention for the two biggest trophies in club football! The proximity of such massive silverware and near misses in the last three seasons, not to mention sniping from media hacks and fans of also-rans, has generated nervousness and tension in some of the fanbase but that should be assuaged by recognition that this team has a massive opportunity to deliver a truly historic season for this club. It was delightful to see the return of front-foot football against Fulham, driven by a red hot Saka and top performances by the whole team and this generated a much more relaxed and positive mood on the terraces. Our players showed no nerves; they showed focus, determination and not a little authority and strategic awareness. Saturday’s crowd was lifted by the dynamism of the team and reciprocated at full volume. We are now six points clear at the top of the league table with a goal difference, 4 goals better than our only rival.

After the match, I did hear some carping about us not pushing on in the second half to score more goals as “goal difference could be important”, Sure, it could be, but that ignores the need to conserve energy and preserve fitness for immediate battles ahead. Certainly, 5-0 or 6-0 would have been better but recent games have seen our level drop off in the second half and I’m happy with us conserving energy at 3-0 by playing within ourselves and seeing the game out. At this stage of the season, with four or, hopefully, five more, vital games coming up, there’s absolutely no sense in breaking a leg (even figuratively) to score a fourth. Moreover pushing for another goal could have jeopardised the clean sheet and diminished rather than extended the improved goal difference. 

A further gripe yesterday heard from the Monday Morning Quarterbacks was that, in the light of his performance yesterday, MLS had not been used in midfield earlier in the season to save the legs of Zubimendi and Rice, both of whom have certainly looked leggy in recent games. Of course, the retrospectoscope has 60/60 vision, but these carpers haven’t seen the training sessions at which MA8 makes his selection decisions and these same carpers would have whined loudly if our midfield was overrun by a powerful opposition midfield because MA8 had started an, albeit talented, inexperienced 19 year old. I expect MLS to start against Wham but not in this game. The same ‘fans’ also moan that we haven’t utilised Nørgaard enough in league games (he has played under an hour all season!) to relieve the pressure on Rice and Zubimendi, but again, they haven’t seen our training sessions. I have no idea why he hasn’t played more but it must be clear to even moderately unintelligent sixth formers that Arteta simply doesn’t trust him to maintain the standards set by his preferred midfield pairing. The selection of MLS against Fulham conclusively proves that Nørgaard has even slipped further down the pecking order.

This team have achieved the amazing feat of being in pole position in the Premier League and in the semi-final of the Champions League despite a season littered with serious and recurrent injuries to key players, most noticeably upfront where Havertz, Saka and Ødegaard hadn’t played together since 2024, but also in defence, where we have missed Gabriel and Saliba for short periods, fortunately to discover that in Mosquera we have an extremely able deputy. 

Wallow in the position this Arsenal team have achieved, Gooners! Shed the nerves! Be proud of the boys! Revel in the culmination of a monumental season!

And so, we turn to the challenge of the semi-final of the Champions League for the second consecutive season. We face arch-manipulators, Atlético Madrid, at our place, on level terms after a first leg that we should have won. I will be intrigued to see the tricks that Simeone and his gang will try to pull off to get the result they want, given the 4-0 drubbing we meted out in October with goals from Gabriel, Martinelli and Gyökeres (2) in 13 second half minutes.

Simeone has had this game in his sights since the final whistle on Wednesday. His team is securely in a Champions League place in La Liga with nothing else to play for. He made 11 changes to the team for their away game to Valencia on Saturday, bringing on regular starters Griezmann and Koke only after 73 minutes to swing the match with two late goals. So, their first XI are all well rested. Sky Sports showed the Atléti line-up as a 4-5-1. I don’t expect them to persist in this formation in this game though it will be their line up when we have possession. The midfield five will attempt a mid-block press but will drop back to supplement the back line if the midfield press fails to regain the ball. I, actually, expect Atléti to attempt a sustained, high tempo start akin to their second half in Madrid, hoping to score an early goal and gain control of the tie. However, their default position will undoubtedly be rugged defence and rapid assaults when we turn over possession. For more on their likely approach to the game and dramatis personae, I refer you to last week’s preview. 

The AI-generated updated fitness report suggests Alvarez will be fit despite an ankle knock, striker Sorloth is apparently still suffering from discomfort (but I expect him again to make the bench), Lookman is apparently a doubt (believe that?), defender Giminez is said to be unlikely to recover in time, winger Gonzalez is expected to miss this match while midfielder Barrios has a season-ending injury (I believe this last one!). Defenders Le Normand, Lenglet and Molina played 90 minutes on Saturday, so I expect them to be on the bench alongside midfielders Vargas, Molina, Mendoza and Almada. It’s quite likely that we will face the same starting XI as in last week’s first leg: Oblak in goal; a back four of Llorente, Pubill, Hancko (the perpetrator of two fouls in the box last week) and Ruggeri; a midfield of Giuliano (Simeone Jr), Koke, Cardoso and Lookman (though Gonzalez may make a surprise return); up front it’ll certainly be Griezmann and Alvarez. I hope that Atléti will be as intimidated by a vibrant Arsenal crowd as they were in October and that the adventurous full backs leave lots of space in behind for our wingers to exploit.

The Arsenal were superb in the first half in Madrid and found their mojo again late on when they got a second wind with three technically proficient attacking substitutions. They were also simply unstoppable in the first half against Fulham. While Atléti will provide a far sterner test than the Cottagers, I hope that we see a reprise of Saturday’s performance with first half goals to establish a commanding half-time lead followed by a controlled second half to see the game out.

Raya, Saliba and Gabriel are, of course, shoo-ins. It would be fantastic to see Timber return to stiffen our right flank but that does seem literally ‘fantastic’, and a start against this opposition after so long out seems very unlikely. In his continued absence, I expect White to be selected over Mosquera at right back, but to be replaced by the Spaniard late in the game. For me, Hincapié gets the nod over Calafiori at left back because of the Ecuadorian’s defensive solidity though the latter will certainly get a run out after 45-60 minutes especially if his creativity is required. His interplay with Trossard looked very promising on Saturday.

There are clearly questions over Ødegaard’s knee but if he’s fit enough, I expect MA8 to start him alongside Zubimendi and Rice. However, he, along with Merino Timber and Havertz, missed the open training session today. I was hoping to get an update from MA8’s press conference but that must be late this afternoon and is not yet publicly accessible. After his storming performance against Fulham, MLS will probably get a late run out if Zubimendi’s legs begin to flag. If the captain doesn’t make it, Eze will take that ‘8/10’ role but if Eze doesn’t start there, he will start wide left and drift in. Up front, I think we will see Saka, Gyökeres and Eze or Trossard whose performances recently suggest a return to form. Havertz may be fit enough to make the bench and perhaps come on to change the thrust of our attack late in the second half. Thus, subject to the fitness of Ødegaard, I expect the following starting XI:

Raya

White Saliba Gabriel Hincapié

Ødegaard/Eze Rice Zubimendi

Saka Gyökeres Eze/Trossard

Expect a scrap, fouls, black arts and intimidation. Hopefully, our boys can rise above this, continue their recent upswing in form and finish the job they started at the Metropolitano. 2-0 to the Arsenal feels like a good outcome.

May Light triumph over Darkness.

Enjoy the game, Holics wherever ye may be!

COYG

Posted in Match Preview | 45 Drinks »

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