
On Saturday, our Premier League campaign restarts with a visit to the blue side of Manchester, just the same game as our restart in June after the Lockdown. These master versus pupil contests have become a regular feature of 2020 with yet another lined up in the League Cup quarter final later this year. Hopefully Mikel can continue where he left off and establish a run of pupil dominance.
Our last visit to the home of the Oilers ended in a 0-3 reverse for a young team with a starting midfield of Willock, Guendouzi and Xhaka. The Arsenal went toe to toe with Shitteh, pressed high and held their own for the first half hour despite losing both Xhaka and Mari within the first 20 minutes. Thereafter, despite superb goalkeeping from Leno, almost constant pressure from Shitteh, abetted by two major errors and a red card for Luiz, resulted in defeat for a team that was outclassed, overrun in midfield and lacked midfield steel, creativity and an offensive threat.
In the FA Cup semi-final at Wembley, Shitteh started as they had finished but after 15 minutes on the back foot, a far more assertive first half performance by The Arsenal produced a different outcome, vividly reported on this blog by OsakaMatt (https://www.goonerholicsforever.com/?p=1101). After Aubameyang gave us a first half lead with a superb goal, Matt described a second-half involving a modicum of good fortune and much stolid defending that would have had Adams et al purring. The result was ensured by Aubameyang’s second goal after 70 minutes and we saw out the match with bravery, organisation and skill with David Luiz to the fore. Matt also gave call outs to Xhaka and Tierney whilst many remarked on AMN’s fine contribution with Aubameyang as outstanding as he was anonymous in the previous game.
Our historical record against the blue side of Manchester is good. We have played them, initially as Woolwich Arsenal vs Ardwick, on 200 occasions since November 1893, winning 98, drawing 45 and losing 57. As observed by a fine correspondent in the current issue of the Gooner, we used to relish our trips to the blue side of Manchester racking up high scoring wins in the noughties before their massive injection of oil revenue. However, prior to July’s FA Cup semi-final we had lost 7 in a row in all competitions to an aggregate score of 2-20 since November 2017. Our total Premier League record at their place is 11 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats. The shift in dominance took place in the 2008-9 season before which we had 10 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat out of 12 PL visits with an aggregate score of 24-7. In the 12 PL visits since November 2008, we have won only 2, drawn 2 and lost 8 with an aggregate score of 16-28. It’s high time we restored our traditional relationship.
Huge investment by the ruling dynasty of the United Arab Emirates has transformed the fortunes of our previously somewhat flaky opponents. It helped them amass a collection of fine players whose efforts and trophy haul have been enhanced by Pep Guardiola and his erstwhile assistant. Having pulled off a treble in 2018-19, they had to content themselves with the League Cup and Community Shield in 2019-20 though they still finished 25 points above us, scoring 46 more goals and conceding 13 fewer. It’s fair to say that while their attack has remained deadly with de Bruyne pulling the strings for Aguero, Sterling and Mahrez, their defence has looked more vulnerable since the departure of Kompany particularly during Laporte’s long injury lay-off. More recently, they have had problems finding a reliable partner for Laporte, hence the summer purchase of Ake and Dias, also adding Ferran Torres to replace Sane. However, Shitteh haven’t yet replaced the energy and guile of David Silva who has returned to Real Sociedad.
Their form has been unspectacular so far this season. After a delayed start they have played three times and sit 14th with 4 points and a minus 1 goal difference. A slightly fortunate 3-1 away win against a flat Wolves team suggested normal service might have been resumed but a 5-2 home thrashing by a rampant Lesta showed unexpected vulnerability to pacey forwards. This was followed by a 1-1 draw at Leeds where the home team merited at least a point. We must hope that rather than getting back on the right track, their wheels come off properly in their fourth game.
I expect Shitteh to field Emerson in goal, Dias and Laporte as their first-choice centre back pairing and Walker and Mendy at full-back. In midfield they have a wealth of options (literally) but I expect a three of de Bruyne, Rodri and Bernardo as Pep goes for The Arsenal’s throat with Fernandinho, Gundogan and Foden very able alternatives from the bench. Upfront we can expect to face Mahrez and Sterling on their flanks with Gabriel likely to lead their line unless Aguero has recovered from injury.
What of the good guys? Given the challenge of a trip to the Emptihad, I don’t expect Mikel to start with the 4-3-3 formation that he is said to favour. At the time of writing, the possible absence of KT reduces our flexibility in morphing between 3-4-3 and 4-3-3 as possession changes. Although Kolasinac offers similar flexibility between left-sided centre back and left wing back, he plays both roles with markedly less security than KT. Fingers crossed that The Arsenal can make the case for an immune individual with circulating antibodies not requiring 14 days quarantine following socially distanced exposure to a Coronavirus-positive Scotland team-mate. I am led to believe that the PL recommendation would be 7 days quarantine rather than 14 days as prescribed by the SFA though neither recommendation is rational for an immune individual. Given that this is a PL match, it should clearly be played under PL rather than SFA rules. Perhaps Mikel’s responses in his pre-match presser were deliberately Delphic. A reported outbreak of Coronavirus-positivity in the Ivory Coast squad also raised anxieties about Pepe’s availability. Hopefully he has been wearing his mask and keeping his distance from infected compatriots!
Subject to others falling foul of Coronavirus-related sanctions, Bernd Leno is clearly our number one ‘keeper and will hopefully again excel at Saturday’s venue. In the absence of KT, Holding, Luiz and Gabriel are our strongest available back three though may lack the shape-shifting potential KT brings to the party. To date, Gabriel has been very impressive on the right and centre of a back three. Perhaps he is capable of shape-shifting versatility on the left side? Bellerin is nailed on at right wing back and in the absence of KT, I would choose AMN at left wing back over Saka and Kolasinac because of his excellent performance against this opposition in the FA Cup semi-final. AMN will also be doubly determined to get over his disappointment at his attenuated first start for England.
I hope Mikel will have no hesitation in starting Thomas Partey at the right side of central midfield and although I would pair him with Ceballos to his left, I expect Mikel to start with Xhaka. I fully expect Partey to make a paradigm-shifting contribution to this Arsenal team and the club’s future and it would be wonderful if he could make a landmark statement in this game. Given the opposition, I think Mikel will go for experience and start a front three of Willian, Lacazette and Aubameyang with Laca dropping back into midfield to link up play and the wide pair tracking back when required. Personally, I would surprise the Sky Blues with a mobile and pacey front pair of Pepe and Aubameyang with Willian playing an advanced central midfield/’Number 10’ role behind them. Alternatively, Ceballos or Saka could play that ‘Number 10’ role whilst Willian and Saka both offer an added metamorphosis to a wide left position. This would allow Aubameyang to move into the central striking position that he exploited successfully to facilitate the opportunities for our goals against Sheffield United.
In summary, I expect Mikel to choose a starting line-up of:
Leno
Holding, Luiz, Gabriel
Bellerin, Partey, Xhaka, AMN
Willian, Lacazette, Aubameyang
The Holic Pound
Whatever the challenge we face, I cannot bet against an Arsenal victory, though pre-match, given recent history, I would be content with a point. The value bet is 40/1 for a repetition of the 2-0 victory we achieved at Wembley. This will require top performances from every player selected, the creation and clinical execution of chances, stolid defending and another slice of Lady Luck’s benevolence at the back. Let’s do it again! Go win, Arsenal!
Enjoy the game, Holics.
COYG.















