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Can Mikel’s Gunners shoot down the Magpies?

Feb 12th, 2020 by

Newcastle United’s visit to the Home of Football terminates the first Premier League two-week winter-lull. It pitches 10th against 12th with both teams on 31 points, the Gunners sitting two places above the Magpies by virtue of a better goal difference of -2 compared to their -12. A true mid-table six-pointer! Two other teams share 31 points: Burnley and Southampton, none of these teams being our usual company at this stage of the season.

Arsenal have now gone seven games without defeat under Mikel Arteta but the team’s starting position when he took over on 26th December and a solitary win and four draws in the Premier League explains our present company despite a clear improvement in team spirit and defensive organisation since his appointment. However so far, there has been a disappointing inability to play well for 90 minutes and a paucity in chance creation and conversion.

Over the season to date we have an unusual record of six wins, thirteen draws and six defeats. Only Liverpool have fewer defeats and only the bottom two, Watford and Norwich have fewer wins! We sit ten points off fourth place but only six points off the relegation places. Hopefully the training camp in Dubai will give Mikel a chance to work his magic on the squad as we desperately need to turn draws into wins, starting with this match. Mikel said of this trip:

It was like a mini pre-season. I wanted to use it to work on our principles and our styles of play, and as well how we live together. There are things I want to implement together as a group, not just for the players but for the staff as well. It has been really useful.

It is our principle, our style of play and how we manage the games, how we manage each section of the pitch and clarity. That the players have clarity, that they know and they can recognise the scenarios they are facing and they have the tools for the solutions.

Newcastle are relegation candidates on possession, chance creation, passing stats, expected goals and goals scored but have risen to mid-table due to their goalkeeper’s form (Dubravka wins their MotM nearly every week) and a high spirit, band-of-brothers approach. Their style of play under Mrs Doubtfire is to concede possession, sit deep, prevent chances and hope to nick something on the break. Their attack is reassuringly blunt and twelve of twenty-four PL goals have come from defenders, mainly from set-pieces. Joelinton, the striker bought to replace Rondon has been firing blanks and is by no means a classic Geordie number 9. Saint- Maximin their new creative force adds pace and trickery – no-one knows what he’s going to do next, including himself. The Longstaff brothers and ex-Gunner Isaac Hayden add midfield muscle and the odd goal. Almirón adds a touch of class up front and must be watched. In the January window the Magpies added one of our bêtes noirs, Danny Rose. No doubt the ex-Spud will be fired up for this match now he’s playing for a big club.

Leno will clearly be in goal and Hector has reclaimed the RB slot with improving form since his return from injury. In recent matches Arsenal’s main attacking thrust has come down the left with Saka more than a mere deputy for Tierney and Kolasinac, providing beautiful crosses, assists and goals until he was kicked off the park by Burnley. Tierney remains a long-term absentee but Kolasinic was predicted to be available after the winter-lull. Can he dislodge Saka from the LB slot? A further question is whether Mustafi retains a centre-back spot after his impressive performance against Burnley or loses it to Sokratis or new-signing Pablo Mari (there are lots of rumours that Mari has impressed and is going to start), presuming that arch nose-pincher Luiz holds his place and Holding remains lower down the pick-list.

Midfield will probably be anchored by the recently reliable combo of Torreira and Xhaka but the key question of Özil remains uncertain. I suspect Mikel will start Özil on the basis of recent selections, news that he blocked a permanent January move to Qatar, our need to create more chances and critically, the absence of another natural ‘number 10’ in the squad. Up front I would pick the speed merchants Pepe, Aubameyang and Martinelli, but I suspect Mikel will prefer to keep goal-shy Lacazette in the centre for his hold-up play and Aubameyang wide-left with licence to cut in. Has Pepe done enough in Dubai to convince MA8 to select him over Martinelli on the right? I sincerely hope so. The work done on the training field during the winter-lull may see Mikel change his formula for this must-win match.

The ‘Holic pound? I think Dave would be very optimistic that two weeks of intensive work on the training field will have allowed Mikel Arteta to address many of the problems he has identified since taking over at the beginning of the busy Christmas schedule. So, the ‘Holic pound seeks out the value-bet and is placed on 4-1 to the Arsenal at 18/1. COYG!

Posted in Match Preview | 141 Drinks »

Six weeks is an age in 21st Century football

Feb 7th, 2020 by

I celebrate a BIG birthday next year and I have begun to realise that I have been following Arsenal for sixty three years. Reflecting on this it staggers me how much the experience of following a club has changed. We are all familiar with the change in player lifestyles (I remember my father being very upset when he encountered a clearly penniless Jimmy Logie when we were en route to an Arsenal game). The game is fundamentally different in almost every respect from the one many readers of this blog fell in love with as young whippersnappers.

Perhaps the biggest change of all lies in the scrutiny and analysis that we see carried out routinely in the game now. Remembering back to my early days as a Gooner (not a term in use then!) it is salutary to think about how little you might be aware of what happened in the away games that you were unable to attend. I would be sent down to the newsagents to get the results edition which would often have the late scorers in the Stop Press. There was no televised football and often truncated accounts in the Sunday and Monday papers…..and that was it. No online analysis, no OPTA stats, no Sky Sports or Match of the Day or blogs or player ratings proliferating after the game. With this reduced scrutiny and massively reduced noise around the game there was inevitably less pressure. Timeframes were more protracted for struggling managers and off-form players. The painful demise of Billy Wright in 1966 was a very savage moment in Arsenal’s history yet it was played out in a much milder way (in most respects) than the end of Unai Emery’s tenure.

So an examination of Mikel Arteta’s first six weeks in charge of Arsenal and what the immediate future might bring for him and the club is , in a sense,  ridiculously premature and inappropriate but at the same time it is interesting to reflect on how things have changed and how the club has developed during his very short period in charge. I claim this because I am already reading wildly differing views on social media about the success (or otherwise- and there is plenty of otherwise) of Arteta as manager.

My intention in this brief assessment will be to look at what he has altered …and not altered… and what he will have to do in the longer term to restore our fortunes. One key point is that he signed a three and a half year contract which is a considerable increase on the duration of the two year contract given to Emery. That suggests a considerable investment of faith in Arteta and an acknowledgment by the Arsenal management that he will need time (and presumably resources) to turn the club around. The decline in the second season under Emery, after an ultimately disappointing but not unpromising first season, left the club in a sorry state and things escalated very quickly.

So in his first six weeks Arteta’s first challenge has been to stabilise the club and impose a style of play that maximises the talents we currently have at our disposal. He has overseen 9 games,7 in the league (won 1, drawn 5 and lost 1) and 2 in the Cup (both won). The draw component might be frustrating but 4 have been away and in 2 of them we have been reduced to 10 men, in the Chelsea game coming back from a goal down twice, at a ground which is not a happy hunting-ground for us. While only one game, the United home victory could be described in anything like wildly enthusiastic terms I have watched all of the games he has overseen. I sense the imposition of a much more structured style which leaves us much less vulnerable defensively (contrast that with the chaos of the home draw with Southampton) although we seem to find it difficult to sustain a high press for ninety minutes. No game illustrated this better than the Chelsea defeat at home where we had been utterly dominant in the first half, led early but fell away significantly and gave up two goals in the last ten minutes.

Artetaball is a high-energy pressing game with emphasis on ball – retention (playing out from the back is a key feature). Attacking down the flanks via the fullbacks is integral with an attempt to overload on the wings but as one full back advances we see a more rigid system of cover operating with Maitland-Niles moving across if we advance on the left and Xhaka settling into a more defensive quarterback role on the left enabling Kolasinac and Saka to get forward to exciting effect . In short we are defending much better but are nowhere near as dangerous in an attacking sense as a team with the forward talent we have should be.

It is amazing to speculate what some fans believe a new manager should be capable of doing. I wasn’t looking for a quick fix but a fundamental reset. That takes time and I believe it is shaping nicely. We’ve drawn too many games but we’ve had terrible luck with injuries, those couple of red cards and we are trying to eradicate several months of the very bad habits we had fallen into. Compare our current form with our performances against Sheffield United, Brighton and Eintracht Frankfurt.

2019-20 has been a bit of a Groundhog Day season if you can extend a day into a season. It certainly feels like it. Change will be incremental not dramatic and I think I prefer it that way because for it to be otherwise would suggest the players were deliberately playing below their natural level and I would find that utterly unacceptable. At least we can believe that the reason for their mediocrity this season has been a combination of coaching deficiencies and individual performance blips rather than a can’t be arsed attitude. We also lack sustained quality in some areas.

For me our priority this season has to be the Europa League as qualification for the Champions League via the League looks unlikely although tantalisingly it remains just within reach. It would be exciting to have a tilt at Wembley in the FA Cup too but a salutary concern is that we are still only seven points off the relegation zone despite a mid-table position. Alleviating that concern as soon as possible would help us all sleep more easily.

But what might lie beyond this season, especially if we aren’t able to secure European let alone Champions League football? Manchester United and Chelsea have survived similar fates in the past but they are not owned by Stan Kroenke! Our options for next season in terms of building the side would be restricted, but by the same token Arsenal still remains a highly attractive destination for good players just not perhaps the world-class players we might have aspired to in the past.

We will need to be pragmatic, imaginative in our scouting and prioritise the absolutely key areas of the team. That means that if they are fit we have adequate goalkeepers, full-backs and with Saliba joining we may not need to strengthen too much at centre back if Marí settles in well and Luiz continues his improvement under Arteta.

For me it is time to reshape the midfield. Creatively we have struggled this season, the recent statistics on Ozil’s lamentable away form underlining perhaps our greatest need. I think it is time to jettison Ozil (perhaps for Grealish?), to sell Xhaka to gain more mobility in midfield and to hope that we note a continued improvement from Guendouzi, Torreira and the returning Smith- Rowe.

Whilst underwhelmed by Pepe who appears a one-trick pony, it is at least a dynamic and explosive trick and his deadball delivery is excellent. We have quality out wide in Saka and Nelson but we also need to rethink our striking options. Neither Aubameyang or Lacazette is in the first flush of youth and hard though it may be to do it, the sale of both might refinance our teambuilding especially if Martinelli can assume the mantle of striker in the way he has this season. West Ham’s recent purchase of young Bowen was an interesting one. He is a goal machine who will thrive in the Premier League (but perhaps not there). We may find ourselves fishing in a less than elite pool of strikers but we hope Nketiah can step up to the mark and as with almost every position our ability to spot uncut ( but almost ready) gems who can be transformed by an exceptional coach is the hope that we cling to. I am relatively positive about the off-field team who have tidied up most of the mess Gazidis left behind.

Arsenal fans are going to require patience, intelligence and a degree of faith, exactly the sort of qualities I associate with Goonerholics! My faith in Arteta is strongly grounded but he will need the support of quality scouting and a management team that give him as much financial support as is feasible given our relatively straitened circumstances. I hope the progress we make will quieten the inane banter on social media. But that is very hard to envisage in these bizarre times we live in.

Posted in Interlull | 86 Drinks »

Are we changing the Loan, Moan, Groan cycle?

Feb 4th, 2020 by

Over the last decade or two loans have grown from something we did occasionally to become a central part of our player development and rotation cycle. Whether we like this or not, it is something we need to do well in order, ultimately, to give us a better chance of winning trophies. For several years our approach seemed fairly haphazard, especially in terms of player development, hence the title of this piece. We’d loan a player out, moan he wasn’t getting enough game time and then groan about all and sundry on his return – no clear plan, no improvement, and no contact or oversight from the club gives you the gist of it I believe. Just over a year ago, the club appointed Ben Knapper as The Loan Arranger (sorry) or more prosaically Loan Manager. Presumably, a belated recognition of a sub-optimal process requiring more effective planning and monitoring. How’s that going for us a year down the road? Fair to middling I’d say but no doubt you will have your own opinions.

First let’s look at the current situation. We have 10 players out on loan, five from the first team squad and five youngsters from the Academy. I have divided by squad and added a note as to the overall objective of the loan as there are differing circumstances and we need to do both well. Is the loan a development move for a player we see as potentially challenging for a first XI place in the near future? Or is it part of the rotation cycle where we are looking to move the player on at the end of the loan?

First Team

Henrikh Mkhitarian – Roma (Rotation)

To be honest Mkhi was not so fine in his brief time with us, though he did contribute some useful goals and assists. He has played intermittently for Roma, scored 3 and got 1 assist in 11 games so far but also had several injuries. He seems well enough liked by Roma, who reportedly offered 10m euros for a permanent move in January. Personally, I’d probably have taken that as I see no way back for Mkhi and he’ll only have a year left on his contract at the end of the season. However, if the rest of the season goes well for him then we should be able to meet the purpose of the loan at the end of this season and wish Mkhi all the best in his future endeavours.

Mohammed Elneny – Besiktas (Rotation)

Was never able to establish a regular place in the side, though twice player of the month. He was once sent off at Southampton for a shove on one Cedric Soares. Now playing regularly and apparently doing a fair job at Besiktas though they have struggled of late and recently fired their manager. There are reports the new Besiktas manager wants to develop internally and isn’t planning to play loan players, as well as a less credible report linking him to AC Milan. Regardless of Besiktas using the buy-out clause I believe that with a season of regular football under his belt we will be able to move Elneny on at the end of the season as he is relatively low priced, not on a high salary, and certainly not a bad player.

Emile Smith Rowe – Huddersfield (Development)

A recent loan that seems to have got off to a good start with a goal and an assist for ESR at Huddersfield.

He has played 3 times so far in the Championship, being subbed off after 81, 85 and 89 minutes in those games. Anyone would think our players lack fitness (note to self – stay on point there laddie). ESR is to me an excellent prospect and our future No 10 but as to this loan it is still too early to tell. Seems a good choice and he has been put straight into the team, which is encouraging after Eddie. Go, Go, ES Rowe !!

William Saliba – St Etienne (Development)

Another great prospect who has the fans salibating about his arrival next season. A mixture of a few good performances this season and many games missed due to injury make it very difficult to reach any kind of conclusion. Whether he can take the step up to the PL and make himself our first choice CB on the right hand side will be interesting to see over the next couple of seasons. The loan back to St Etienne was I think a reasonable decision and means we that we have not had the option of “Mavroing” him – i.e. throw him in at the deep end in an injury crisis and see what happens.

Konstantinos Mavropanos – Nurnberg (Rotation)

Mavro arrived in January 2018, apparently unknown to AW, and then impressed sufficiently in training to be kept with the squad rather than sent out on loan as originally planned. The injury crisis duly arrived and he was thrown in for a few games where he showed promise. Injuries followed and then a couple of difficult outings last season, under a manager who didn’t seem to rate him highly, and another injury. We have had him for 2 years and now he has gone on loan to Bundesliga 2 outfit FC Nurnberg. I have no actual idea whether this is a development or rotation loan and I suspect that the club and player don’t really either. To me, he’s 22 and played less than 30 senior league games in his career. In May he will come back to a club with 3 young CBs ahead of him in the queue. It would be better for all involved to let him move on this summer. I don’t want to be harsh but his development has not been our finest hour.

Overall we seem to have found suitable opportunities for Elneny, Mkhi and Mavro plus made positive decisions for Saliba and Smith-Rowe. This summer will validate those decisions to a large degree but we have at least given ourselves as well as the players an opportunity. On the other hand Eddie’s loan to Leeds worked out less well.

Academy

Tyreece John-Jules is an 18-year-old striker. At just over 6 feet tall he is certainly no dwarf for the men in red. Currently just starting a loan at League One Lincoln City, he seems the best prospect amongst our current Academy loanees.

James Olayinka – the 19-year-old midfielder just started at Northampton Town and got the MotM award in his first game for The Cobblers – a 3-0 win over Scunthorpe. After the match the manager, Keith Curle, a 2nd rate clogger for those of you who don’t remember him, said “James Olayinka is a good player…but we have to get our way of playing into his system”. Oh no you don’t Keith. Sadly, James is ineligible for the Derby FA Cup game and will miss the chance to boot Shrek in the trolls.

Deyan Iliev – recently started his loan at mid-table Polish League club Jagiellonia. A long shot to me but the loan itself looks a good step up from the Slovak side SKF Sered where he played for the first half of the season, and played well enough to get noticed by a higher level club. It is a good sign that we have been active in getting a better level for him.

Jordi Osei-Tutu – halfway through a year loan to VFL Bochum in Bundesliga2. He did very well to overcome the challenge of dealing with disgusting racist abuse and got good support from Arsenal via Ben and Per. Started the season with a run of games in the first team but since a change of manager he has rarely featured and I did wonder if we should bring him back in January. Sitting on a bench in Germany is not a good use of a young full back’s time. He is 21 and it is time to play regularly.

Ben Sheaf – on loan to Doncaster since the start of the season. He has been playing regularly and extended the loan in January. This was a step-up for the 21-year-old midfielder as he was on loan at League 2 Stevenage last year. However, another who seems a long shot for a future with the first team.

To be honest I see most of these, excepting John-Jules, as rotation moves for players who will not feature in the first team squad in the next one or two seasons. Nothing wrong with that and an important part of our responsibility to the young players we bring to the club. Could we be more aggressive on the

development side? I believe so, but the current young players in the squad demonstrate that loans are not the only way forward. Also, it is important to recognize that there will always be more players who can’t reach the senior squad than those who can and so naturally we will have more young players on loan who do not go out to a career with The Arsenal. Finally, on this point, academy players are not robots, they may surprise or disappoint and today’s high flyers may be tomorrow’s swamp dwellers – we never truly know and all opinions above are just my own. May they all be successful !

There are different ways for young players to get to the first team squad – AMN and Nelson went out on loan, Saka did not and neither did Joe Willock. Guen and Martinelli were signed straight in. After a famine in terms of youth development we are now enjoying a feast – for me seeing our young players coming through this season has been a real joy. If ESR and Saliba come in as better players for their loan periods and play a role for the first XI next season followed by John-Jules or others the season after, then the loan system is working well. If not I will moan and groan.

Posted in Interlull | 58 Drinks »

I’ll Tell You Now and I’ll Tell You Firmly…

Feb 2nd, 2020 by

As the team news came through we found out that Gabriel Martinelli had shown enough to Mikel Arteta to keep his place in the team. Perhaps surprisingly, Lacazette also kept his place and we started with him up top and Gabi on the right flank, Auba on the left and Ozil at 10. Mustafi started and Torreira was left on the bench.

In the second minute Mustafi played a good ball out of defence to Ozil, who turned infield and spread the play wide to Auba. His cross was met by Lacazette whose header went wide. If he were in better form it was a chance he would expect to bury. We had started the brighter side and in the fourteenth minute Luiz played a lovely ball over the top to Aubameyang who had timed his diagonal run from wide left towards goal expertly. He control was good but his shot was shanked wide. We should have been two goals ahead. Would we rue these missed chances?

Almost immediately after this Burnley began to grow into the game. They pressed better as we struggled to play out from the back and we misplaced too many passes in midfield, with Ozil, Laca, Xhaka and especially Guendouzi guilty of careless moments. Burnley’s play was the same as always- all long balls and crosses from wide. Their first chance was a long range shot from Rodriguez just shy of twenty minutes in. Unlike us, they had now registered a shot on target.

Saka was struggling with a knee injury and his reduced mobility robbed us of an attacking outlet that had, in truth, looked less effective with Aubameyang ahead of him than it has recently done with Martinelli. He struggled on to half time but if we were not already playing our third choice left back we would surely have subbed him off. Mustafi won a good header which the Burnley fans thought was a foul. They began singing ‘Same Old Arsenal’. I would have thought they appreciated a brave header but apparently that’s only from one side. Mind you, as their team hoofed long balls and crosses from any and all conceivable angles they repeatedly broke out into chants of ‘anti-football’ in reference to a David Luiz comment. If it was meant ironically then it missed its mark. As they jeered and booed our injured players I doubt I was the only one thinking they are not my favourite set of fans.

Auba was played through by a Xhaka ball that was a carbon copy of the one from Luiz. His control was not so good and he was too close to the keeper when he shot, although it apparently counted as our first shot on target. Ozil had started well but began to find less space and fade out of the game. We lost all control in midfield and were chasing around with energy but without much knowhow. Gabi was finding it hard to get into the game and Lacazette even more so. Defensively we looked less and less confident dealing with the aerial bombardment and there were a few hairy moments in our box when Burnley applied a lot of pressure and could easily have seen something find our goal or fall kindly for one of their players. Rodriguez in particular got a tiny flick on a knockdown that Leno gratefully clasped to his chest. Had he got a little more on it the keeper would have been stranded. Halftime came as a relief to us, the match had swung firmly towards the home team.

For the second half Saka was replaced by Torreira and Xhaka slotted in at left-back. Left-back has become such an important position for us since  Arteta took over that Saka’s injury cost us dearly, Xhaka’s qualities will never run to bombing up and down the flank, making overlaps and crossing from the byline. We could not shift our play the to the other side, Hector not able to overlap, leaving us with big problems getting the ball from the base of midfield into wide areas and on into the box.

Burnley started the second period more brightly than us without creating any clear cut chances. In the 57th minute Torreira found himself joining Xhaka and Ozil on a yellow card and this reflected the fact that they were still the team applying all the pressure. Soon afterwards Hendrick beat Xhaka in the air but the attentions of our makeshift fullback were enough to prevent him burying a good chance.

We began to find our way back into the game and looked more assured. Martinelli and Aubameyang swapped sides which immediately looked more comfortable for Gabi without reducing the threat Auba posed. We had a spell where we were back on top, although we were not creating chances. I was hoping we would take off Lacazette, who worked hard but had a tough game, bring on Pepe on the right and put Auba up top. The way Burnley defend in banks means they leave big spaces for a pacy player who has beaten his man, so I thought Pepe would be perfect for this game, but my wish was not granted and both our wide men struggled to go past the Burnley fullbacks who had good games.

Hector cut inside and hit a left foot shot over the bar. For just a moment we were dreaming of a repeat of his recent strike at Chelsea. Then Lacazette fashioned a wonderful cross which Auba should have scored from. For a moment I thought he had but it went the wrong side of the post. Then came the chance of the match. They played in a high and loopy cross which Leno might have come for but he left it and so did the rest of our team. Auba showed his defensive weakness on the right, letting their number 11 win the knockdown unchallenged only for Hendrick to volley it into the bar. It rebounded down onto the goal line but the technology clearly showed that our initial despair was unwarranted, the whole ball had not crossed the line. We had well and truly got away with one.

Could this be a lucky moment that we could capitalise on, as has happened so often at Burnley in recent years? Unfortunately not. Laca was belatedly brought off for Eddie Nketiah to get four minutes of play. It was strange that he was not brought on sooner. There were no more clear chances and the match ended with both teams fighting hard but lacking cutting edge.

Burnley were tough and physical but they were not dirty today. Mikel Arteta had said before the game that he had no problem with their usual tactics and, unlike Stoke teams I remember, they executed them robustly but within the laws of the game. We stood up fairly well to what we knew was coming. I have the feeling that under our former coach we would have lost today. However, we were not clinical with our chances and after the Saka injury left us imbalanced I thought the boss could have moved more swiftly and decisively to change the patterns of our play. He is still the right man and he is learning his team and his job. His players all worked hard for him and all of them had decent games without anyone being particularly good or bad and a draw was a fair result. As he gets a lot of (deserved) stick on his bad days I will say that Mustafi had an unexpectedly good game, just to leave us on a high note.

I’ll make it two high notes… we don’t have to go back there for another year.

I’m with John Cooper Clarke about that place.  

Posted in Match Report | 50 Drinks »

Bringing the grit to Burnley

Feb 1st, 2020 by

Turf Moor, where grit is said to prevail, will be the venue of this 25th fixture of Arsenal’s worst Premier League season in recent memory. Mikel Arteta’s 10th placed side travel to 13th placed Burnley with only goal differential separating them. The two clubs are level on 30 points, the hosts having won three more but drawn nine fewer matches than the north Londoners. The Sunday kickoff increases the pressure on both clubs to keep pace with three other clubs on 30 points (Newcastle, Everton, Crystal Palace) who may have picked up points on Saturday. Arsenal have not won in the Premier League since New Year’s Day when they kept a clean sheet at home against Manchester United, but they drew their three other league fixtures in January. February brings hope that Arteta’s charges will come through with another gritty performance, and three highly prized points.

In this fixture last May, when the players’ attention might have been distracted by the upcoming Europa League final, Arsenal emerged victorious through second-half goals by Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (2) and Eddie Nketiah. Unai Emery was looking relatively comfortable for one of his last times as manager. This season, the 40-odd days since the arrival of Arteta has given the players’ confidence a major boost. Their sustained positive approach in recent matches has been a pleasure to see, coming as a relief after the mounting negativity of the last months under Emery when they seemed to be waiting for the next thing to go wrong.

Burnley have played 12 home league fixtures, winning and losing six each. Sean Dyche’s side defeated bottom-half clubs Southampton, Norwich, Everton, West Ham, and Newcastle, and third-placed Leicester on the 19th of January. They should be well-rested, last having played eight days ago when they lost a home Cup tie to Norwich City. But the Clarets’ most recent Premier League match was their impressive away win and clean sheet at Old Trafford, where Burnley had not won in nearly 60 years. If Burnley can maintain their recent levels of energy and discipline, Arsenal could struggle to break them down.

The centre-half pairing of Ben Mee and James Tarkowski have anchored Burnley’s defence in all 24 league fixtures, and Arsenal should expect to see them again. Burnley will be feeling confident about their attacking prospects considering their strength on high balls and set pieces, as well as Arsenal’s well-discussed defensive weaknesses in those situations. At Old Trafford the Clarets lined up in a 4-4-2 formation with Jay Rodriguez and Chris Wood leading the line and both players getting their names on the scoresheet. Ashley Westwood, and 20-year old academy graduate Dwight McNeil have been the two most important creative forces in Burnley‘s midfield, and both of them should both feature against the Gunners.

Arsenal’s continuing run of uneven away form remains a concern. The Gunners have garnered only two wins, at Newcastle in August and West Ham in December. In their remaining away fixtures they drew seven and lost three, so an upturn is certainly in order. They last played Monday when they defeated Bournemouth in the FA Cup, and will try to build on the positives of that match as well as their most recent league match the 2-2 draw at Stamford Bridge when they drew level twice despite playing with ten men for over an hour.

Team selection

In central defence David Luiz returns from suspension and should partner Sokratis Papastathopoulos. On their flanks, Hector Bellerin and 18-year old dynamo Bukayo Saka should keep their places. Shkodran Mustafi, who suffered an ankle injury at Bournemouth, is not expected to play, and after the loan signings of defenders Pablo Mari and Cedric Soares, the German’s rung on the ladder may have sunk a bit lower.

A key decision is in midfield where Arteta needs to mitigate Burnley’s height advantage. But does he have a ready replacement for Lucas Torreira? In his selection decisions thus far the manager has not shown full confidence in Matteo Guendouzi, who performed so well at Bournemouth, but the young Frenchman should have a good shot at continuing his run here. Granit Xhaka is in an encouraging stretch of form, and his defensive duties have been expanding recently so it will be interesting to see his role.

A bit farther up the pitch, Mikel Arteta has shown renewed faith in Mesut Özil, who was so often left out of the team in these fixtures in years past. Where the opposition’s defensive approach features rotational fouling, will Arteta keep faith with his highest-paid player? Based on every one of his selection decisions so far, he could indeed. But this is Arteta’s first squad selection “up north” having narrowly missed taking charge at Everton in December, and he may consider other options such as Joe Willock, whose physical qualities could add balance to the starting XI.

In the Arsenal attack, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is once again available for selection following his three-match ban, and should go straight into the team alongside Alexandre Lacazette. Nicolas Pépé can be expected to provide width on the right side with Gabriel Martinelli available as a substitute to run at tiring Burnley defenders.

Arsenal: Leno, Bellerín, Luiz, Sokratis, Saka, Xhaka, Guendouzi, Özil, Pepe, Lacazette, Aubameyang.

The ‘holic pound

In spite of our less than stellar away form I am backing a 1-2 away win to The Arsenal with Aubameyang scoring two delightful second-half goals and Burnley snatching one at the death.

Here’s to the long-awaited start of Arsenal’s march back up the table. Wherever you watch the game, keep spirits high, Dave in your heart, and have a great one.

Posted in Match Preview | 57 Drinks »

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