Goonerholics Forever

(Trust me. We’ll get there, together.)

“At the Arsenal match, I am told by someone who was there, a British and a Russian player came to blows and the crowd booed the referee…I noted with interest, as an instance of the vicious passions that football provokes, that the sporting correspondent of the Russophile News Chronicle took the anti-Russian line and maintained that Arsenal was not an all-England team.”—George Orwell, The Sporting Spirit. Tribune, 468, 10-11 (1945) available at, https://www.orwellfoundation.com/the-orwell-foundation/orwell/essays-and-other-works/the-sporting-spirit/). (Note, we’ve been taking pelters from the media for a very long time. 😊 )

During my research for this preview, I came across George Orwell’s account of a 1945 exhibition football match between Dynamo Moscow and Arsenal played under “adverse” weather conditions (pea-soup fog) at White Heart Lane. Writing for that venerable Labour weekly, the Tribune, Orwell used the contentious sporting event (Dynamo pipped Arsenal 3-4 in a match featuring a 12-man Dynamo, playing spectators, and sending-offs) as a backdrop for a more damning assessment of sport as a source of enmity which could erode international goodwill. Going so far as to conclude that “[S]erious sport has nothing to do with fair play,” he concluded that serious sport is “war minus the shooting.” Although I disagree with Orwell’s conclusion, I fully understand how the horrors of the recently-concluded World War informed his sensitivities regarding nationalism, and I also am very much persuaded by his structural arguments that a foundational element of sport’s appeal (especially competitive team sport) is tribalistic ritualism.

Even without Orwell’s more darkly contemptuous criticism and conclusions, competitive sport as a ritualistic proxy for combat is a compelling proposition. Teams and individual players with their various ties of class and kinship make readily useful avatars for polarization and have done so for millennia. Sporting competition, where participants consent to the suzerainty of obscure rules and abstractions in the service of creating a framework for a mutual contest of wills, provides a physical and psychic venue where sides can “battle” without wanton violence (unless Stoke-on-Trent is involved). The psychic and physiological effects of sporting outcomes on supporters, let alone competitors themselves, are well documented. The National Institutes of Health compiled numerous studies (back when the NIH actually practiced science) documenting vicarious experiential fluctuations in fan testosterone and dopamine blood levels with concentrations increasing for fans of victorious teams. (Bernhardt, et al, Physiol Behav. (1998) available at, https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9811365/). Numerous cultures across the ages have utilized competitive sport as a kayfabian stand-in for combat from the Mesoamerican ballgame (Ulama) to the Greek Olympic games to Mongol wrestling to Han Dynastic football to Roman gladiatorial competition to modern professional iterations. All this preamble is basically a lot of words to say that my self-serving interest in analogizing competitive sport and warfare is not a prima facie absurdity.

If you accept the premise that competitive sport and warfare analogies can yield fruitful discussions, you can travel down many intellectually-stimulating rabbit trails. For example, I have long considered drafting an article investigating the flexibility of this Arteta-led Arsenal analogizing it to a combined-arms army within the analytical framework of a (very) rudimentary melee-combat army classification system (heavy-infantry centric, combined arms, cavalry centric). Mercifully, this preview is not that article. However, there is a particular historical engagement that rhymes well with the occasion that brings you to the bar today…

In late summer of 48 BCE, an ambitious Gaius Julius Caesar was on the ropes and, quite literally, fighting for his life. Only months earlier, he had openly defied the Roman Senate by crossing the Rubicon under arms. His political, military, and financial alliance with the other two most powerful men in the Republic had dissolved. His daughter, Julia, had recently died in childbirth, and, now, as rebel and enemy of the Republic, Caesar found himself bottled-up in central Greece, short on money and supplies, facing a larger Roman consular army led by one of the most decorated generals in the Republic’s history…his former ally and former son-in-law, Gnaeus Pompeius Magnus. Although the details of that battle, interesting as they may be, are unnecessary for this preview, it should could as no surprise to you, my dear reader, that for purposes of this particular analogy when Arsenal meet Manchester €115y at Wembley Stadium for the Carabao Cup Final, Arteta is Caesar and Pep Guardiola is Pompey.  

This comparison works on several levels. Firstly, in the civil contest between Caesar and the Republican Legions under Pompey, Pompey was the elder statesman. He had the more storied military career with numerous campaign victories in Spain and Asia Minor. Pep has won titles in Spain, Germany, and England, and, through the alleged financial perfidy of the Abu Dhabi United Group, he has created a football juggernaut that has won the Premier League six times in the last seven seasons. Given that Arteta was quite literally Guardiola’s lieutenant at €115y, Pep is definitely the senior manager in this contest. Secondly, although Pompey’s army outnumbered Caesar’s, the latter’s troops were hardened veterans of higher quality than Pompey’s new recruits. We need not waste many lines of copy here detailing the egregious and rule-breaking spending €115y has employed over the past decade, but just this January, they led the Premier League in spending approximately £85M to recruit Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guehi. Arsenal continues to be outspent, but for this final we have assembled a squad of players whose quality from top to bottom arguably surpasses €115y’s (more on this anon). The Gunners are also battle-tested. What the “second-again” trope misses is the fact that, since the 2023-24 Premier League season, no team has accumulated more total points than Arsenal (233). Finally, as the two armies arrayed for battle, Caesar’s legions, roused by his rhetoric and their very real logistical need to fight a pitched battle, had a burning martial spirit; whereas, Pompey, goaded into battle by his Senate allies when he preferred to starve Caesar into submission, was resigned to fight, and his army fought like it.

On Sunday, a confident Arsenal, having lost just three matches in all competitions this season and undefeated since January 25^th, will face a demoralized €115y that was ignominiously dumped out of the UEFA Champions League Round of Sixteen by Real Madrid. On Sunday, a younger, tactically-adept Mikel Arteta will lead his team of physically stronger and emotionally hungrier players against an older, yet wily, Pep Guardiola who manages a team whose reputation may belie its current potency. 

The Opposition

Let me dispense with any notions of objectivity from the outset. I despise everything about Manchester €115y. From their no-mark, obtusely cynical, plastic fanbase to their, alleged, systematic financial rule breaking, €115y (and their other fellow petrostate/oligarch-owned Premier League clubs) are the standard-bearers for all that is wrong with modern sport. I revel in any setback for that odious lot from the Eastlands.

However, the team we will face on Sunday remains a dangerous opponent. €115y’s shrewd January acquisition of Semenyo has returned significant dividends. In a team whose prolific goal-scorer has somewhat recently gone off the boil (my Fantasy Premier League sacrifice by captaining Haaland will hopefully continue its deleterious effects on Sunday and throughout May), Semenyo’s seven goals in sixteen appearances are the primary reason why Arsenal’s Premier League lead over €115y (having played one more game) is only nine points. Haaland has scored three Premier League goals since the New Year. Hopefully this rich vein of poor form will continue on Sunday. Jeremy “Count” Doku and Omar Marmoush return pace and tricky movement to a recently bereft strike force, but Semenyo is the key threat for me.

In midfield, Nico Gonzalez and Bernardo Silva, that cretinous chode, provide technical balance to an older and less physically imposing Rodri, but key new additions Rayan Cherki and Tijjani Reijnders offer offensive cunning. Given that Phil “laid-it-on-a-plate-for-Eze” Foden has been less productive of late, I would isolate and press Rodri (if €115y play him as a lone “6”) or, if €115y deploy Gonzalez and Rodri in a double pivot, go man-to-man and impose our physicality.

The €115y backline, however, may pose the greatest concern for Pep. Gvardiol is injured and Marc Guehi is ineligible, so Khusanov and Dias will likely feature as the center back pairing. I would expect Nathan Ake (instead of Ryan Ait-Nouri) to feature on their left side and Nunes on the right. We should be able to exploit Khusanov who, while rapid, is young and frequently positionally daft. If €115y do play Ait-Nouri, I would expect Saka to torture the poor sod. On our left, Leo’s guile, tenacity, and technical skill should keep Nunes well occupied. Finally, although Pep has publicly stated that James Trafford will stand in goal, I think it’s a clever ruse for the media. If Trafford starts and we rock his world, Pep has a handy excuse, but I expect to see Donnarumma between the sticks.

Regardless, €115y has weaknesses in midfield and defense. They have dropped four points in their last two Premier League matches. Given their recent soft underbelly, I have a sneaking suspicion that €115y will eschew the low block tactics they employed at the Emirates in favor of a more expeditious, attacking approach. Although I would welcome that tactic, €115y’s potent strike force warrants a disciplined, if aggressive posture.

The Arsenal XI

The Arsenal enters the hallowed Wembley ground riding an ebullient wave of positive results. We lead the Premier league table by nine points. We are successfully into the Champions League Quarter Finals off the back of a comprehensive victory over Bayer Leverkusen. We have advanced to the Emirates FA Cup Quarter Finals where we will face Championship side, Southampton. After Eze’s thunderbastard against Leverkusen and Max Dowman’s revelatory exploits against Everton, the team’s morale has never been higher. But, although the confidence and enthusiasm of players and supporters alike are at a zenith, we do have some personnel and selection challenges. As of Friday, Ødegaard and Timber were not yet confirmed as eligible. Merino remains sidelined due to foot surgery, and there is a twenty-man roster limit for the final so some big names will be left out of the squad. Arteta also has to decide whether Kepa or Raya will start in goal and how he will deploy his forwards. Will he start Kai and bring Gyökeres on in the second half to run at tiring defenders? No matter the decision, it will be vital to physically dominate €115y and give them no hope. Furthermore, I believe Big Vik is ready to step-up, so I think Mikel will go with:

  Kepa

     Timber — Saliba — Gabriel — Calafiori

        Zubimendi — Rice

    Saka — Eze —Trossard

  Gyökeres

In addition to thinking that Arteta, as a man of his word, has promised the Carabao Cup matches to Kepa, I have also heard that Kepa has done the media appearances in advance of the Final. Also, Raya and his wife just welcomed their first son’s birth, so it feels like a Kepa game to me. I also remember the 2014 FA Cup where Fabianski started (Fabianski at Wembley his arms out wide…IYKYK), so there is historical precedent. I also have a gut feeling Timber will be ready for this match, but, if he isn’t fit, I would expect White to start with Mosquera to substitute on sixty minutes or so. Calafiori and Trossard pair well, and Eze…well, I just want him doing boss, Eze things on either side of the “D”. Hopefully, Saka will terrorize his left back taking early shots and feeding early channel runs to Gyökeres. Finally, I also have a feeling this match might just feature a Zubimendi moment. Watch this space. 

No matter who starts, it will be vital to take shots early, often, and from distance. 

The ‘Holic Pound

I expect a cagey initial thirty minutes. Like a heavyweight boxing match, when both fighters possess the power to land a knockout punch, early rounds are about finding a rhythm and not making a fatal mistake. But we can impose ourselves on the €115y midfield and use that platform to target Khusanov. Since January, €115y have shown a tendency to drop their physical levels in the second half. Shots, shots, shots. If we can take a lead into halftime, I like our chances, and I fancy the team to deliver a dominant performance, 3-0 to the Arsenal.

Although Pompey’s and Caesar’s actual motivational rhetoric has been lost to time, Caesar’s apocryphal closing words were, “[Tonight,] we will pitch our tents in that rampart, from where their troops come about to perish.” (Lucan’s Tale of Two Leaders: Rhetoric and Syntax Preceding the Battle of Pharsalus. Jones, available at, https://share.google/hv1Cjz1eay7eFhHGR). After the battle, Caesar’s surviving troops did, indeed, sleep in their defeated countrymen’s tents. The younger general had defeated his elder counterpart, and a new age was at hand. May Sunday’s results follow a similar, albeit less violent, theme, and lay the foundation for a new age of Arsenal footballing accomplishment.

Enjoy the game tomorrow fellow ‘Holics and Gooners. What did she wear?

Come on you Gunners!

MCMBD

And so to the Stadium of Stone for the second leg of our Champions League Round of 16 tie against Bayer 04 Leverkusen. 

Few will disagree that Die Werkself proved to be an unexpected handful in the first leg. Nonetheless, Kai Havertz’s 89th-minute penalty at his old stomping ground left things even-steven at 1-1. 

The mood from the Leverkusen camp is that they were close to pulling off ‘a big coup’ last week, and that they can exploit the pressure on us to win at the Ems. They will treat the game like a cup final.

Kasper Hjulmand

Leverkusen’s Danish gaffer, Kasper Hjulmand, got an early start in coaching after injury cut short his playing career at 26. His first appointment was at Lyngby before leading Nordsjælland to its first Danish league title in 2011-12. This led to him being hired as Thomas Tuchel’s successor at Mainz in the Bundesliga while still in his early thirties. However, it didn’t work out, and he lasted less than a year.

After a spell back at Nordsjælland, he was appointed national team manager. He led Denmark to the semi-finals of the 2020 Euros, the 2022 World Cup finals in Qatar and then to the 2024 Euros, where Denmark was eliminated in the first knockout round, at which point he resigned. 

He returned to club management last September after Leverkusen booted out Xabi Alonso’s successor, Erik ten Hag, after just three games, the Dutchman having created a toxic atmosphere at the club. Once dipped in the Old Toilet, there is something that can never be shaken off.

Alonso’s double-winning team was broken up with the sales of its key players, Florian Wirtz, Jeremie Frimpong, Jonathan Tah and Granit Xhaka, plus the loan of Piero Hincapié to us. With the €165 million trousered from Liverpool for Wirtz and Frimpong, Leverkusen brought in 18 new players last summer. 

With the exception of three goalkeepers, the veteran defender Lucas Vázquez, picked up from Real Madrid on a free, and 25-year-old French international Loïc Badé, acquired from Sevilla for €25 million, all were under 23. Hjulmand’s task has been to pick up the pieces left by ten Hag’s departure and meld young talent not of his choosing into a team.

The Dane prefers to set up in a 3-4-2-1, as did Alonso, although he started with a 4-2-2-2 in a few recent league matches before reverting to 3-4-2-1 against us last week and against Bayern Munich in the league on Saturday. 

He instructs his team to defend aggressively and to control the tempo of the game through possession. Leverkusen ranks second in the Bundesliga this season for tackles won, and only Bayern Munich surpasses it for share of possession, passes and successful passes. Hjulmand also concentrates heavily on set-pieces. We observed all of these tactical traits in the first leg.

The opposition

Mark Flekken, acquired from Brentford in the summer for  €12 million, would be the first-choice glove butler, but he damaged his knee ligaments in January. He is back in training, but Janis Blaswich, who is 34 and has spent much of his career on a bench or playing in lower leagues, will likely continue to deputise. He has kept eight clean sheets in 16 games, but had VAR to thank at the weekend for a couple of errors not proving more costly.

With the lanky Badé also out due to a hamstring injury sustained in February, the back three is likely to consist of the uncompromising club captain Robert Andrich, a 19-cap Germany international who scored the goal in the first leg, Jarell Quansah, bought from Liverpool in the summer for €35 million (reportedly the deal includes an €80 million buy-back clause that the Scousers are considering triggering), and Edmond Tapsoba, a 60-cap Burkina Faso international who came through the ranks of the Portuguese club Vitória Guimarães.

Aleix García, who has made two starts in 15 call-ups for Spain and was at Manchester City before being released on a free in 2020, will anchor the midfield alongside Argentina World Cup winner Exequiel Palacios. The Argentine provides the muscle and the Spaniard the passes.

Palacios’s younger compatriot, Equi Fernández, another summer signing, from Al-Qadsiah in the Saudi Pro League, is an option from the bench. Malik Tillman, a German-born US international who came through Bayern Munich’s youth ranks and was Leverkusen’s joint most expensive summer signing, at €35 million from PSV, started the season in the double pivot alongside Garcia, but Hjulmand has since moved him upfield.

Alejandro Grimaldo, who impressed in the first leg and is a product of Barcelona’s La Masia, should be at left wing-back after missing the weekend league game against Bayern Munich through suspension. He plays a versatile role, dropping into a traditional left-back position when Leverkusen lose possession but functioning more like a ten when they have the ball. He is also a dangerous set-piece taker.

Grimaldo’s return will likely mean that the mercurial Ernest Poku, a 22-year-old with 21 Netherlands U-21 caps and who arrived from AZ Alkmaar in the summer, will revert to the right flank, and 18-year-old Montrell Culbreath, the highly regarded Germany U-19 international who has come up through Leverkusen’s youth ranks, will drop to the bench.

Nathan Tella, who played for our U-18s a decade back, was excluded from Leverkusen’s nominated CL squad because of long-term injury, as was fellow winger, the Morocco international Eliesse Ben Seghir, bought from Monaco in the summer for €32 million. 

Yet, Hjulmand still has plenty of attacking talent at his disposal. Preeminent among it is Ibrahim Maza. The 20-year-old Algeria international playmaker was bought from Hertha Berlin in the summer for €12 million. Atlético Madrid is reportedly offering triple that to take him to the Metropolitano this summer.

Alongside him will likely be Tillman, reprising the attacking midfield partnership Hjulmund employed in the first leg. The Dane can also call on 33-year-old Jonas Hoffman, a holdover from Alonso’s double-winning squad, who had a few call-ups to the Germany national team in the early 2020s. The 29-year-old Frenchman Martin Terrier, another Alonso-era winger, is also available, having recovered from a kick on the ankle that earned Bayern’s Nicholas Jackson a red card on Saturday.

Leading the attack will be either Patrik Schick, the Czech international who is Leverkusen’s leading goalscorer this season with 13 in all competitions despite an injury-interrupted campaign, or Christian Kofane, the 19-year-old Cameroon international who gave Saliba and Gabriel some grief in the first leg. 

Leverkusen unearthed Kofane at Albacete in La Liga 2. They will surely recover the €5 million they paid for him, and more. The chance for a significant return from Schick is diminishing. Many of Europe’s top clubs, including ours, have reportedly considered him since he joined from Roma in 2020. However, he turned 30 in January, and the big-money interest is waning.

Our visitors come into Tuesday’s game after a chaotic 1-1 draw at home to Bayern Munich on Saturday. Vincent Kompany’s league leaders had two players sent off, and two goals disallowed by VAR for handball, yet still equalised before what Leverkusen thought was a stoppage-time winner was ruled out by VAR for a narrow offside. The fact that Bayern’s Luiz Diaz was sent off after receiving a questionable second yellow for diving and won the man of the match award in a game where either side could have won or lost 4-1 tells you everything you need to know.

The draw was Leverkusen’s fifth in their past six matches, but they haven’t lost since being beaten by Union Berlin in the Bundesliga in mid-February. They sit sixth in the Bundesliga, 22 points behind Bayern but seven clear of Eintracht Frankfurt in seventh.

The Arsenal

Jurriën Timber has joined Mikel Merino and Martin Ødegaard off-games, but Leandro Trossard is available again. So is Ben White. Cristhian Mosquera replacing Timber on Saturday suggests that Benny Blanco isn’t yet match-fit enough to start. I suspect Calafiori will retain his starting place, with Hincapié saved for closing out duty.

Havertz or Viktor Gyökeres up front is the other question. There will also be a clamour to start Max Dowman after his magical moments against Everton. I expect Arteta to start his tried-and-trusted seniors.

Raya

Mosquera, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori

Zubimendi, Rice, 

Saka, Eze, Martinelli

Gyökeres

The game is, self-evidently, a must-win: the loser goes home.

Bayern’s scouting notes for last Saturday’s game (no stone left unturned here at Castle Ned!) said that Leverkusen possessed enough quality to cause any opponent problems but has shaky periods, and the contest would come down to which team could bring their strengths to bear more effectively. The same will be true on Tuesday evening. 

Yet, if we control the game and dictate the tempo, we should be able to secure a 2-0 win to progress to a quarter-final against either Bodo/Glimt or Sporting.

Enjoy the game, ‘holics, near and far.

The Merseyside hordes of Everton FC are expected at the Grove on Saturday evening in what has become a vital match in Arsenal’s season.  Due to Arsenal’s commitments in the three other competitions they won’t have the opportunity to pick up more Premier League points until April 11th, so this first of eight remaining league fixtures certainly has the feel of a must-win game in their title push.  The match comes sandwiched between the two-legged Champions League last 16 matchup with Bayer Leverkusen where the Gunners drew draw 1-1 on Wednesday, and the return leg at home this Tuesday.

To this point Mikel Arteta has had much the better of his meetings with his old manager David Moyes (against Everton and the other teams Moyes managed in that time), winning 7 of his 11 league games and suffering just one defeat.  At this critical juncture in Arsenal’s season it would be just the time for the protégé to outthink his teacher once more.  After Arsenal stretched their lead at the top in last Wednesday’s narrow win at Brighton, they have an opportunity to do so again, even if momentarily, with rivals Cheaty facing West Ham later in the day on Saturday.

The up and coming opposition

After consecutive victories at Newcastle and home against Burnley, Everton now occupy 8th position in the Premier League table with 43 points, or only 5 points fewer than Chelsea who are currently clinging to a Europa League spot, but 4 and 14 points more respectively than this season’s ‘Champions League contenders’ Newcastle and (ahem!) Tottenham.  

By defeating Burnley, the Toffees broke a streak of 7 consecutive home games without a win, but their undefeated run of 7 consecutive away games has Everton in contention to qualify for Europe, at least via the Conference League, if they don’t manage to overtake the Chavs.  Everton last lost an away league contest on December 13 at Stamford Bridge, and they rang up victories at Newcastle, Fulham, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest during that stretch.

Young striker Thierno Barry scored the late winner at Newcastle, has looked a handful on the few occasions I have seen Everton play this season, and might have already made a few Everton fans less regretful that their former striker Calvert-Lewin has been one of the league’s top strikers this season playing for Leeds United.

Everton at the Emirates under David Moyes generally try to keep things tight at the back, with captain Tarkowski and company doing their all to mop up any chances Arsenal manage to create.  The Toffees will have had plenty of time to prepare for this game, with only league fixtures to worry about after failing to qualify for Europe due to last season’s 13th place league finish, as well as their FA Cup exit to Sunderland in January, and their Carabao Cup exit to Wolves in September.  But the return of Moyes and the opening of their new stadium have considerably brightened the outlook for those wearing blue on Merseyside, compared to this time last season.

Everton team news

The Everton squad should be refreshed following a 10-day break since their last match, and massive defender Jarrad Branthwaite will be available while the rest of the squad is largely fit.  That means we can expect to see important roles played by the likes of Dewsbury-Hall, Garner,  Ndiaye and Gueye in the midfield area, with Tarkowski a near ever-present at the back.

Arsenal team news

Leandro Trossard and Martin Ødegaard missed the first leg at Leverkusen through injury and their availability continues to be assessed, but Ben White returned to the bench in Germany, so Mikel Merino remains Arsenal’s only long-term injury concern.  With Merino, Ødegaard and even Bukayo Saka not contributing as much to the cause this winter as many had hoped they would be able to do, the manager’s selection options are fewer.  But since Eze and Madueke are more rested and have shown us tantalizing glimpses of what they are capable, they may remain in the team in Ødegaard’s absence and Saka’s sluggishness.  As for the remainder, I expect the team to be similar to the one we saw play at Brighton, and for Arteta to rest any players in the second half who he expects we will need to get us over the line against Leverkusen a few days later.  Thus, against the Toffees we will probably see a team like:

Raya

Timber Saliba Gabriel Hincapié

Eze Zubimendi Rice

Madueke Gyökeres Martinelli

Enjoy the game if you can, ‘holics, although as we have seen in recent weeks it may not be straightforward, easy, or pretty.  Three points will be golden on the day, not to say that 24 points in our last 8 fixtures wouldn’t half leave us sitting on a pretty perch indeed.  

Not to get ahead of myself though.  Grit, focus and those precious three points are the order of the day.  Nothing more and (please) nothing less.  We have come so far, but now is when we must deliver the goods.