Goonerholics Forever

And so, a strange season littered with a series of serious injuries to key players that required surgery, compounded by a litany of bizarre and punitive referee and VAR decisions, comes to an end with a final match against Southampton at St Mary’s. A place in next season’s Champions League has been secured by the hard fought victory over the Barcodes last Sunday at home and a hat-trick of second place finishes is almost certain unless we lose this game and the Abu Dhabi Creative Accountants FC can rattle in enough goals to make up their goal difference deficit. We absolutely don’t want to see either of those scenarios. We should beat this shower.

Southampton have had a truly terrible season – record breaking in the wrong way. Last season they gained the ‘prize’ of promotion to the top tier by finishing fourth in the Championship, ten points behind ‘champions’ Leicester and nine behind second-placed Ipswich, and by beating third-placed Leeds United 1-0 in the play-off final. Frankly it is hardly surprising that they have struggled in nearly every game. We should beat this shower.

The Saints have dispensed with two managers during the season. First to walk the plank was Russell Martin who had taken them up but refused to change his playing ‘principles’ despite one thrashing after another. He was sacked in December after a 5-0 home defeat by the Marshdwellers – surely no-one could survive such an embarrassment! Next for the chop was Ivan Jurić who reminded me of Harry Worth, both in appearance and interview style (ask your dad!) and the fecklessness of his team, who lasted just over 3 months. He too was sacked after another defeat by the Marshdwellers (just too embarrassing!) – this time 1-3 at the Toilet Bowl. That result confirmed Southampton’s relegation on 6 April, after 31 games, thus breaking Derby County’s 2007-8 and Huddersfield Town’s 2018-19 joint record for the earliest relegation in Premier League history. We should beat this shower.

Jurić has been replaced by Simon Rusk who had been first team coach for under 6 weeks. Despite his relative inexperience, Rusk delivered the Saints’ high water mark of the season with a 1-1 draw against West Ham which helped them reach 11 points to avoid breaking Derby County’s 2007-8 record for the lowest points tally in Premier League history. Over his two spells as interim coach (2 matches between Martin and Jurić and 6 matches after Jurić so far), Rusk’s record is played 8, won 0, drawn 3, lost 5. On 10 May, Rusk delivered another high for Southampton with a 0-0 draw against Abu Dhabi Creative Accountants FC that surprised everyone, not least Pep the Perp. We don’t want the Saints to have another highpoint this season. We should beat this shower.

After 37 games, Southampton sit bottom of the Premier League on 12 points with just 2 wins (1-0 at home over Everton in November and 2-1 away to Ipswich in February – not company we want to keep), and 6 draws. They have scored 25 goals and conceded 84 yielding averages of 0.68 goals scored per game and 2.27 goals conceded per game. We should beat this shower.

I have no idea how Rusk will set up his team to face the Arsenal. Nor can I be arsed to find out. I’m confident that Mikel Arteta has studied them and come up with a plan. Their most familiar player is of course, Aaron Ramsdale. He’s a good goalkeeper and I liked the man but David Raya is clearly an upgrade and I hope we stick 5 past him and that Aaron ultimately gets a move to a decent club that will not be relegated. Southampton have a few other players whose names I recognise: Bednarek, Harwood-Bellis, Walker-Peters (all three are doubts), Sugawara and Stephens are hard-working but ‘just OK’ defenders but I’ve never heard of Welington, Wood and Bree; Dibling is their young creative hope in midfield but shows his youthful flaws as well as ample attacking energy; he will likely feature alongside three of Fernandes, Aribo, Kalmadeen, Downes, Ugochukwu or even Lallana (who is doubling up as interim assistant manager); up front they will have one of Sulemana, Archer or Onuachu. The latter is their top scorer in the Premier League with 4 goals followed by Aribo with 3 goals. Dibling and three others have 2 league goals. Expect them to play a low block and attempts to break out at speed in the hope of equalling or bettering their result against Abu Dhabi. We should beat this shower.

In the home fixture which ended 3-1 to the good guys, the visitors surprisingly scored first through Archer after 55 minutes but goals by Havertz on 58 minutes, Martinelli on 68 minutes and Saka on 88 minutes secured all three points and a better reflection of a match in which we had 29 shots at goal (but only 6 on target – reflecting the season as a whole?) vs 8 (2 on target), 19 corners (vs 1) and 59% possession. We should beat this shower.

I am sure that Mikel Arteta wants to finish this season with a victory and an assured second-place finish above Abu Dhabi Creative Accountants FC. We have now added Saliba and Timber to our walking wounded and the latter has had a surgical procedure to his ankle (apparently a problem he has been coping with for several weeks). Apart from last week’s return by Kai Havertz none of our longterm wounded can be expected to be available. I think we will see another vignette from the bench for Kai rather than a starting position. I hope that Calafiori, another recent returnee, is capable of 90 minutes. Merino returns from suspension and may get the centre forward position over Trossard or alternatively he may be held in reserve to reinforce the midfield or central defence later in the game, given that we have few experienced options in the latter department. I expect we will see farewell run outs in an Arsenal shirt from KT3, Jorginho and Zinchenko late in the game – thanks, goodbye and good luck, fellas. Thus I anticipate we will see a starting XI similar to the following:

Raya

White Kiwior Calafiori MLS

Ødegaard Partey Rice

Saka Merino Martinelli

Although St Mary’s has, for reasons I do not understand, rarely been a happy hunting ground for us, we should be confident that we can secure a hat trick of second places in this game. As many sensible people have observed, given the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune that have been flung in their path throughout this season, second place in the Premier League and reaching the semi-final of the Champions League are remarkable achievements for this manager and squad. I expect us to keep a clean sheet and win 5-0. 

Let’s finish this difficult season on a high!

Enjoy the game, Holics near and far.

We should beat this shower!

COYG

This Sunday afternoon Arsenal host Newcastle United in their last home game of this frustrating season in which the Gunners have come so close to achieving much greater heights than a series of major injuries and atrocious refereeing decisions have permitted.  Last weekend’s 2-2 comeback draw at Liverpool left Arsenal two points clear of third-placed Newcastle with two matches remaining for each club so the Gunners can seal a second-place league finish by beating Eddie Howe’s side in this match. A firm beating would of course be quite preferable, but any beating would do quite nicely, and a draw would not be the worst result either in the circumstances.  But please let’s keep the focus on that firm beating because these opponents have been sticking it to us recently, and a tad of revenge would be most satisfying indeed.

The Opposition

Newcastle beat Arsenal home and away by identical 2-0 scores each time on their way to winning the Carabao Cup earlier this year.  In November’s reverse league fixture, Arsenal also failed to score a solitary goal, losing by 1-0.  Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon, among others, formed a dangerous presence in the Geordie attack in all those games, while the Geordie defence was top notch.  Newcastle have won seven of their last nine matches, and come looking to bag their first league double against the Gunners in 30 years.  Just about the only good news from this fixture’s recent past is that Arsenal won last season’s home encounter by 4-1 over the Geordies.  But a more long-term view should put Gooners into a more positive frame of mind because Arsenal have not lost at home to Newcastle in their last 15 league matches, with the Gunners winning 11 of their last 12 encounters at the Emirates.

Ever since December when they were mired in 12th with only five league wins, Newcastle have kept their noses firmly to the grindstone, and a run of nine wins in all competitions pushed them into top-five contention as well as a League Cup final, where they beat Liverpool 2-1 at Wembley to finally end a 56-year trophy hiatus.  After they beat European rivals Chelsea last weekend by 2-0, manager Eddie Howe is also on the verge of achieving the club’s best league placing since 1997, as victories in their final two games would see them claim second spot from under Arsenal’s noses.

Arsenal

As one astute Gooner said this week, this is the game where Mikel Arteta needs to show he can out-think Howe, who is beginning to be a tad annoying.  According to Arteta in his pre-match press conference, Kai Havertz is likely to be back in the Arsenal squad for the first time in four months. The striker returned to training this week, nearly four months after he sustained a hamstring injury during the Dubai training camp in January, when it was expected that he would miss the remainder of the campaign.
On whether Havertz will play against the Magpies, Arteta said: “We’re going to decide that tomorrow.  He’s done certain parts of the sessions in the last two days and looks in great shape, but I think it’s more of a shout for all the medical staff, the doctor especially to give the clearance and then how Kai actually feels to contribute if he’s required.”

As for other Arsenal players whose availability is an issue, Declan Rice missed the game against Liverpool with a hip problem, with Leandro Trossard and Gabriel Martinelli both picking up issues during the 2-2 draw last Sunday.  Jurrien Timber has also been struggling with injury lately, and Arteta will assess them all before deciding on who will face the Magpies.

Commenting on the challenge of facing this opponent at this stage of the season, the manager added that “We’re going to need a big one and be very clinical because we know the qualities of Newcastle.  We know the results that we had lately against them and how thin the margins are with them.”

Based on recent team selection and a guess on which players will be healthy, Arteta is likely to field a side something like this XI:

Raya

White  Saliba  Kiwior  Lewis-Shelly

Ødegaard  Partey  Zinchenko

Saka  Trossard  Nwaneri

Mikel Merino misses out after receiving a red card last week at Anfield so unless Havertz makes a chancy return, despite being an injury doubt Trossard is my best guess as to which player is likely appear in the center forward position, especially as I can’t think of an experienced alternative.  Looking at Arteta’s bench last week, he doesn’t have a lot of options in midfield either, so this could be a game for Zinchenko to make an appearance there.

Seeing as three points are essential I think Arteta is likely to try to keep this one tight, so the good old 1-0 to the Arsenal is my prediction.  

Enjoy the game, ‘holics, and if we land the magic three points be sure to enjoy celebrating a happy end to this nearly glorious but frustratingly odd season.

And so to Anfield for Sunday’s late afternoon Premier League game, with the weight of Wednesday’s disappointment hanging heavily.

There was a moment this season when it seemed that this fixture could potentially be the league decider, and we would be summoning the spirit of ’89 to carry us to another famous title. As we know, that moment is long gone. 

Yet, a team that has repeatedly been dealt cruel hands this season has played them with resilience, self-belief and tactical acumen that would make George Graham’s charges proud. Mikel Arteta will have to wring out every last drop of those qualities in the three remaining games to secure second place, still within our control, and ensure we return to the Champions League next season among Europe’s elite.

Anfield

Anfield has not been a happy hunting ground for us. Sunday will be our 101st league fixture there across the old Divisions One and Two and the Premier League. We have won just 24. 

Our first visit was in January 1894, but we did not achieve our first win there until September 1919. Henry White scored a brace, and Billy Blyth added a late third in a come-from-behind 3-2 victory in pouring rain before 12,000 spectators. We would have to wait until December 1927 for the next win, a 2-0. Jimmy Brain and Syd Hoar were the goalscorers in a game on which the newspapers reported that Liverpool were so poor that towards the end, their fans were resorting to ‘ironical cheers’ whenever a Liverpool player touched the ball. Better weather, however, brought the crowd to over 50,000. Fair weather Scousers, in all respects. 

Our most recent league victory there was in September 2012, a game in which Arteta played, and Lucas Podolski and Santi Cazorla scored the goals in a 2-0 win. However, we haven’t lost there since 2021; our last two league visits have ended in draws.

Arteta has a mixed managerial record against Jurgen Klopp (played 14 in all competitions, won five, drew three, and lost six), but he doesn’t have much of a track record against Klopp’s successor, Arne Slot. Their teams have met once: the 2-2 draw at Highbury earlier this season. 

I commend GSD’s match report of that game. As you may recall, a team stripped of players due to injury and suspension had what would have been the winning goal overturned by a controversial refereeing decision. (Surely not, I hear you cry!) The ref that day, Anthony Taylor, will again be on the whistle on Sunday. (Surely not, I hear you cry!) No PL ref has handed out more red cards or awarded more penalties this season. (I just hear you cry.)

Arne Slot

Slot deserves credit for applying tactical tweaks to Klopp’s side, making Liverpool the deserved title winners this season. Bonus points go to his conditioning coaches for keeping the full squad fit throughout. However, most credit must go to Liverpool’s owners for patiently building a title-capable squad over successive transfer windows—a lesson for our boo-boys calling for Arteta out for want of a striker.

The Dutchman’s crucial adjustment to the German’s setup was to default to using Ryan Gravenberch as a single pivot in midfield, with a line of three attacking midfielders in front of him, instead of a box midfield in which Trent Alexander-Arnold inverted from full-back to be one half of a two-man base. Slot’s change freed Alexander-Arnold to play higher and wider on the right, making better use of his crossing skills and allowing Mo Salah to cut inside from the wing, as he loves to do. Only if Gravenberch was being overrun would Alexander-Arnold tuck back into his old Klopp role of inverted full-back.

The opposition

I expect Slot to start his strongest team on Sunday, unlike last weekend’s loss at Chelsea. The names will be familiar, so I will skip my customary descriptors.

Alisson should be in goal, with Connor Bradley at right back (more on why not Alexander-Arnold below), Ibrahima Konaté and Virgil van Dijk, making his 300th PL appearance, as the centre backs, and Andy Robertson on the left. Gravenberch will be the DM, with Alexis Mac Alister and Dominik Szoboszlai as the attacking midfielders. Salah, making his 299th PL appearance, Luis Díaz and Cody Gakpo will be up front, although Slot could perm his front three from any of that trio plus Federico Chiesa, Darwin Núñez and Diogo Jota. 

That is what building squad depth looks like in practice: having quality substitutions that allow starters to rest early or to chase games when necessary, and like-for-like replacements to cover for injuries or suspensions. 

Defender Joe Gomez is the sole unavailability due to injury.

The Arsenal

In his pre-match press conference, Arteta was composed and reflective (‘In that clinical moment, the ball goes to the post, out, in, that’s the fine margins. So I think what we have to try to do is to amplify the margins.’) and, at times, wistful about the game’s vagaries (‘Hakimi, he shouldn’t be in the game for the last 10 minutes of the first leg, so he could not play the second game and score when the expected goals was 0.07. These are all random things in football.’). 

He was not ‘spikey’, as one media headline suggested, despite some goading on the need for a 25-goal-a-season striker, of which, incidentally, there are only two so far this season in the five top European leagues, Salah and Barca’s Robert Lewandowski.

The Arsenal players will form a guard of honour for the Liverpool squad before the match. Arteta said the hosts deserve that as they have been the best team this season. Yet, he is also sending a motivational message to our own, to see out the final three games strongly and proudly to finish the season ‘in the manner that we deserve’. The nightmare scenario is an end-of-season implosion that costs us Champions League football next season.

Thus, I believe most of the battle-hardened but war-weary warriors of Paris will start:

Raya

Timber, Saliba, Kiwior, Calafiori

Partey, Ødegaard, Rice

Saka, Merino, Martinelli

Calafiori would provide MLS a needed break from the firing line and may be a better option against Salah. White for Timber is another possible change.

The outcome will depend on how Liverpool approach the game as much as on whether Arteta has refocused his team. The hosts’ season is finished. The title is secured. They are out of the two competitions with finals pending. They are also caught up in the departure of Alexander-Arnold to Real Madrid, which has deeply divided Scousers. Phrases like ‘betrayal of his boyhood club’ are being bandied about. Welcome to the parallel universe of social media abuse.

Slot confirmed that Bradley will start Sunday’s game at right back. It is uncertain whether Alexander-Arnold will be on the bench or even play for Liverpool again, or what kind of reception he will receive if he does. Madrid reportedly want to sign him in time for the summer’s World Club Cup. 

As a former manager of AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord, Slot will be accustomed to losing his best players each season, but he has said that he won’t tell Liverpool fans what to think about Alexander-Arnold’s departure.

Neither side will want to lose this game against an old rival. Three points would bring us to the brink of ensuring we finish no lower than fifth and thus qualify for next season’s CL. My heart hopes for a slice of the spirit of ’89 to deliver a 2-0 win, although my head suggests that the gentlemen of the turf’s favoured 1-1 is more realistic.

Enjoy the game, ‘holics, near and far.