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Hic sunt dracones

Feb 20th, 2024 by

Image from stadiumdb.com

And so into the Dragons’ den. The time: Wednesday evening. The occasion: the Champions League Round of 16 first leg against FC Porto. The location: a sold-out Estádio do Dragão.

The 50-000 seater stadium, the third largest in Portugal, was built for the 2004 Euros. Porto moved in the year before, travelling a few hundred metres down the street from the Estádio das Antas, where it had played since 1952. A 16-year-old Lionel Messi made his Barcelona debut in a friendly that christened the new digs.

The stadium takes its name from our hosts’ nickname, the Dragões, which, in turn, comes from the dragon in their crest, which in turn comes from its home city’s coat of arms at the time the club’s crest was redesigned in 1922 by one of its players, a graphic artist with the pen name Simplicio. He combined the club’s original crest, a blue ball, with elements of the coats of arms of the city and the royal family. 

Dragons have been associated with Porto ever since St George became Portugual’s patron saint in the 14th century (Anglo-Portuguese alliance, King João I marries John of Gaunt’s daughter, Philippa, and all that) but particularly since the 1832-33 civil war between King Pedro IV of Portugal and I of Brazil and his brother Miguel. Think Harry and William but with armies and a serious point: constitutional vs absolute monarchy. 

In return for Portuenses helping Pedro prevail against the odds in a year-long siege, their city was granted the title Invicta (‘unconquered’). Porto incorporated this honour into its crest along with a black, fire-breathing dragon sitting in a crown. After he died, Pedro was buried in Lisbon but left his heart in Porto. It is in a crystal and gold vase near the main altar in the Church of Our Lady of Lapa.

The ribbon and dragon were removed from the city’s crest in 1940 during the Salazar dictatorship, but not from the football team’s. Simplico had turned the dragon dark green (it has lightened and brightened over the years) because green and white were the city’s colours. However, when the team initially decided on its shirts, it opted for the blue and white of the royal family. The country’s now distinctive red and green became the national colours only after the ill-fated Republican Revolution of 1910.

The football club had been founded 17 years earlier by António Nicolau d’Almeida, a 20-year-old Oporto port merchant enamoured by the game during a trip to England. As affairs of business diverted his attention, the club stagnated until 1907, when it was revived, playing in local competitions and regional championships. 

After Portugal organised a national league in 1934-35, FC Porto was its first champion. As one of the country’s ‘Big Three’ with the Lisbon clubs, Benfica and Sporting, it has gone on to create a storied history: 84 trophies, including 30 league titles, with an unmatched five in a row from 1995 to 1999, 19 domestic cups, two European Cups and two Europa League titles. The only blemish on this fine history is to have given a young Jose Mourinho his first big managerial break. Under the former translator of another of the club’s managers, Bobby Robson, Porto became the first Portuguese side to win a treble.

It also holds the Arsenal Cup, reputedly the world’s tallest sporting trophy at 3 metres, struck after Porto beat us 3-2 in a friendly played at the Estádio do Lima in May 1948. As the reigning Football League champions, we were considered ‘the best team in the world’ at the time, and Porto’s victory was all the sweeter as we had put archrivals Benfica to the sword 4-0 earlier in the tour. The imposing trophy is the centrepiece of the club’s museum in the Estádio do Dragao.

We have played Porto competitively six times since: CL group games in 2006 and 2008 and a Round of 16 tie in 2010 that we won on aggregate. That was the last time we advanced beyond this stage in the CL. The record stands at three wins — all at the Emirates — and two losses and a draw in the Estádio do Dragão, where we have scored only once (not counting a Lukasz Fabiański own goal in 2010).

The opposition 

Porto is managed by Sergio Conceição, a former right-winger for the club who spent half his nomadic playing career in Italy and scored a hat-trick for Portugal against Germany in Euro 2000. Since taking over in 2017, the 49-year-old has won three league titles, three domestic cups and a league cup. He has also taken his team into the knockout rounds of the CL three times in the past four seasons.

Porto currently sits third in the league seven points adrift of joint leaders Benfica and Sporting. A low-key 2-0 win over relegation-flirting Estrela at the weekend got it back to winning after a draw and a loss in its previous two games. It was the better side in both but failed to take its chances (sound familiar?).

Conceição favours a possession-based 4-4-2 but has switched to 4-2-3-1 of late and will likely stick with that against Arteta’s 4-3-3. In either formation, the young Argentine Alan Varela, a rumoured Liverpool target, plays as the double pivot alongside either the equally young Nico González, a lanky Spaniard who came up through Barca’s youth teams before joining Porto last summer, or the Canada international Stephen Eustáquio. 

Their job will be to deny Havertz and Ødegaard space between the lines and to shield a likely back four of (if fit) Wendell, an experienced Brazilian left-back with an eye for goal (he is joint second-leading scorer this season with three), Portugal international right-back João Mário, the young but highly rated Brazilian centre-back, Otavio, signed from Famalicão in January and who made his Porto debut at the weekend, and Pepe, the Brazilian-born club captain who has 134 Portugal caps and turns 41 next week. 

Pepe played against us in 2006 before moving to Real Madrid the following season. There, he won three CL titles among 16 trophies. He has won as many with Porto and two with his adopted country. Pepe brings some (very hardened) steel and experience to the heart of the defence. Assuming he plays, he will extend his record as the oldest player to appear in a CL game, and if, heaven forfend, he scores, extend that age record, too.

Swiss-born but Porto-raised Diogo Costa, Portugal’s first-choice keeper, will be between the sticks. It is a tight defence: 16 goals conceded in 22 league games. It has been more porous in the CL, giving up eight goals in the six group games, although its xGA was 6.3. 

Having unloaded last season’s player of the year, 29-year-old midfielder Otávio, on Al-Nassr for a rich 60 million euros, Porto’s attacking creativity comes from Pepê, a Brazilian winger-turned-No 10 who has one cap for his country, his compatriot, Galeno, who had more goals and assists combined than anyone in the group stage, and the manager’s son, Francisco Conceição, who is on loan from Ajax (Sergio Conceição has four sons who are all professional footballers). Another couple of promising young attacking midfielders, the Spaniard Iván Jaime, another recruit from Famalicão, and the homegrown Gonçalo Borges, will likely get some minutes from the bench.

Yet another Brazilian, Evanilson, will provide the firepower up front, with Iranian international Mehdi Taremi, who is off to Inter in the summer, off games. Evanilson is their leading goal-scorer this season with nine, plus three assists. No one, including Haarland, Morata or Greiznmann, had a better goals-per-90-minutes stat in the group stage.

The Arsenal

Zinchenko and Jesus start in what I believe to be Arteta’s preferred CL team. Neither will be fit enough to play in Porto. Thus:

Raya

White – Saliba – Gabriel – Kiwior

Ødegaard – Rice – Havertz

Saka – Trossard – Martinelli

Thomas Partey and Fabio Vieira have reportedly travelled to Portugal, but not Tomi.

Hic sunt dracones is a euphemism for unknown or dangerous territory. Porto represents that. There are no pushover opponents in the CL Round 16. Diogo Costa said ahead of the match that they had identified our weaknesses and would go all out to exploit them and win. Yet, if we are to have the deep run in the tournament that I feel we shall, the Dragões will have at least to be kept at bay in their den and then slayed in N5.

Enjoy the game, ‘holics, near and far.

Posted in Champions League, Match Preview | 37 Drinks »

If Only Arsenal Had a Striker

Feb 18th, 2024 by

With the weather being exactly what you would expect from the North West at this time of year, the Arsenal team rolled into Burnley with the intention of continuing the brilliant form of late. Liverpool has unsurprisingly rolled over a pretty supine Brentford in the lunchtime kick off and nothing but a victory would do. 

The team was as expected with the only surprise, and disappointment, being that none of our injured or returnees from international duty had even made the squad. As a result, the bench included James Sweet and Mauro Bandeira who hadn’t a minute of first team football between them. 

Burnley started off in a manner of which Dyche would be proud, with a Stoke-style long throw and a couple of fouls in the first few minutes. The spirit of Dyche was clearly living on and physically embodied by Craig Bellamy on the touchline, with the sublime footballer that was Vincent Kompany banished to the stands as a result of indiscretions last week. 

It took only 4 minutes to crack the case however, as Martinelli sprinted down the left wing, cut back and picked out Ødegaard on the edge of the area. The Norwegian took a first touch to control the ball and then absolutely arrowed his half-volley shot into the very corner of the goal. A superb finish and indicative of the form which he is in at the moment. 

The spirit of Dyche continued to be channelled by the Burnley players a couple of minutes later with 2 fouls visited first upon Martinelli and then on Saka in quick succession as we broke up a Burnley corner and looked to counter-attack. The referee, who I thought did a good job on the day, was having no nonsense from Burnley and booked a Burnley player – Aaron Ramsey, no less- for the Martinelli foul. 

The high press with which Burnley had bravely started, was beginning to fade and after 20 minutes it became noticeable that Burnley were starting to fall back deeper behind the ball when out of possession. Which was quite a lot! On 22, at an Arsenal corner, we saw the increasingly common sight of wrestling at a corner with the Burnley defender literally grappling with Ben White in order to prevent him from making his now customary run to position himself in front of the keeper. The referee did not cover himself in glory here, as gave a free kick to Burnley for White being put into the kind of hold that many will remember seeing last in the 1970’s ITV Saturday sports show “World of Sport”, being inflicted on some hapless dupe by Mick McManus.

On 23 the one ray of sunshine on the Burnley team, the young winger Odobert beat first Saka and then White and fired in a shot from a tight angle which was well saved by Raya as it took the kind of deflection which could have seen the ball ping into the net. Good reactions from the keeper.

Arsenal were well in control but without the second goal which would probably seal the victory and on 33 we missed a great opportunity as Saka crossed in from the right and both Havertz and Trossard exhibited poor control and the opportunity was gone. 

Ødegaard was now the human embodiment of the oil in the machine. He reduces the friction as they ball progresses up the pitch and facilitates the smooth running of the entire machine. On this form he is a joy to watch. Shortly before half time he combined with Havertz to send Trossard through on goal and a poorly timed tackle saw him upended. A certain penalty despite the frankly ridiculous protestations of the Burnley defender. Saka eventually took the penalty and his not entirely convincing effort just beat Trafford and nestled in the corner,. 2-0 as we went into half time.

We came out for the second half with the intention of putting the game beyond doubt and it took only a minute to add to the lead. Havertz controlled well a difficult ball into him in the final third and shifted the ball on to Ødegaard, who in turn hit a delightful pass inside the right back for Saka to run onto, cut outside the defender and leather his right footed shot high into the roof of the net at the near post. This was now exhibition stuff.

Arsenal attacks came in waves and were it not for some curious finishes from Trossard we could have scored a few more before the Belgian finally put the onion into the bag, being rewarded for his patience and perseverance after joining the orderly queue at the back post which had formed rather in the manner we used to see at a London bus stop.

Arteta now decided to make some substitutions and we saw Cédric, Nketiah and Nelson come on for White, Trossard and Saka, respectively. With the CL away tie with Porto coming up next week, this was an excellent and uncharacteristically early decision from Arteta and all the more welcome for it..   

On 77, Havertz scored a truly excellent goal, capitalising on some either sleepy or downright daft defending from Burnley who seemed to squeeze up at an Arsenal throw on half way, allowing Havertz to run in behind the defence, take the ball on, nutmeg his defender and slide past the keeper. 

At this point Arteta decided to replace Rice with Jorginho, another excellent substitution, with the game now well and truly decided. 

Conclusions

We have heard a lot from the media naysayers along the lines that Arsenal need a proper striker to compete with Liverpool and Abu Dhabi. And yet nearly 2/3 of the way through the season, we have only been outscored by Liverpool. Could it be that the usual suspects don’t actually know what they’re talking about and have simply been guilty of projecting what they want to see? Surely not, for they are experts who couldn’t possibly be guilty of reducing a nuanced tactical development in the game to an easy to communicate binary view. Oh for more Brian Glanville’s and fewer Gary Neville’s.

There are more difficult away days to come this season – City and the Walthamstow Marshes among them. However, we appear to be hitting form at just the right point of the season. In the first half of the season, we amassed points but were way off the standards set last year. Looking at it with the benefit of a certain amount of hindsight, this may perhaps have been by design, with Arteta looking to conserve energy for the final third of the season. Recent performances have been all the more impressive given that we have 6 first team players out: Timber, Tomi & Zinchenko in defence; Partey & Vieira in midfield; Jesús up front. If we start to get these players back, we could be in for a very exciting run in.

Posted in Match Report | 46 Drinks »

Hadrian’s Wall

Feb 17th, 2024 by

Unless one was exceptionally enthusiastic about learning the long and colorful history of English football, for a non-English Arsenal fan – drawn towards the great London club by the magnetism of their football in the final years of the previous century – the name of Burnley was very unlikely to bring any sign of recognition for the first decade or so of following Arsenal. I first learned of Burnley Football Club when the premier league schedule for the 2009-10 season was published, the Lancashire side returning back to the top flight after thirty three years of absence.

Soon enough the awareness turned into a nearly visceral distaste for the club, their players, their supporters and most likely their manager. While Owen Coyle – a self-proclaimed Wenger devotee, who soon moved to Bolton, and eventually was charged with young jack Wilshere’s development on loan – earned Burnley the promotion into EPL, the club solidified their tenacious presence in the top division at the hands of Sean Dyche, who demonstrated a remarkable fondness for antediluvian footballing ethos that prided itself on blurring the boundaries between the beautiful game and fatal combat that would not have been misplaced in the battlefields of Roman Britain where the Brigantes of Northern England fought valiantly against Gnaeus Julius Agricola.

Especially at their home in Turf Moor – continuously in service since the foundation of Burnley football club in 1883 – Dyche’s horde, egged on by the bloodthirsty crowd that carried in their voices an atavistic hatred for anything and anyone south of the Hardian’s Wall, would merrily go about scything down anyone showing the temerity to express their creative instincts. Unfortunately for us, the Arsenal team of those years no longer had the “fight fire with fire” stalwarts of Arsène’s Highbury days, but a young side brimming with technical excellence whereas lacking the streetwise brio needed to overcome the threat on their lives and limbs.

At least that is retained in my memory as the primary impression of the recent encounters against the toughies from Turf Moor. However, memory can be deceptive. Our PL results away at Burnley have been, in the chronological order: 1-1, 0-1, 0-1, 0-1, 1-3, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1. There have been 21 matches – including PL, FA Cup and League Cup – between these two clubs in this century, and the head-to-head record stands at: Arsenal won 15, drew 4, and lost 2 matches. One 2-0 loss away at League cup in 2008; one 0-1 home loss in PL in 2020. In the process Arsenal outscored Burnley 37-12. So, despite the lasting impressions of those northern encounters, Dyche and co. were nowhere near the bogey team the painful memories of those matches may influence us into believing.

Moreover, one must admit that the intrinsic unpleasantness of Burnley’s football has been more than replaced by the progressive, attacking football philosophy of Vincent Kompany. A skillful ball-playing defender – irrespective of his unfortunate club affiliation, I have always admired the players, just as I did with YaYa Toure or Sergio Aguero – he has completely transformed Burnley’s football style, and brought them back into the PL on the strength of free-flowing football. It naturally took Kompany – a first time manager at this level – some time to get his team to become truly competitive at PL where the margins of error are nonexistent and the gap between the result and the performances are often determined by turning moments where concentration, discipline and experience matter as much as quality.

They are currently fighting to avoid relegation, sitting at the 19th position at the league table. However the form since the turn of the year has been steady, and the results in PL have started to improve: 1-1 and 2-2 home draws against Luton and Fulham, and 3-1 losses away at Manchester City and Liverpool, where the team had given an impressive account of themselves.

The winter break had evidently helped to refresh the legs and minds of the Arsenal squad as well. In the first 4 PL appearances of this new year we have beaten Crystal Palace 5-0 at home, Nottingham Forest 1-2 away, Liverpool 3-1 at home, and West Ham 0-6 away. 14 goals scored, 2 conceded. If we beat Burnley in Saturday afternoon’s encounter then it would be the very first team in PL history Arsenal will win the first five games of a calendar year.

More importantly, a victory this weekend will also maintain our momentum in retaining relevance at this season’s fascinating three-way fight for the league title. Based on Mikel’s interview comments – if he were ever to get bored with the mad mad world of football management, a politician’s career waits for him – I think we can safely guess that at least some of the previously injured players are likely to return to the squad this weekend. But I think he won’t risk starting any of them, given the midweek away tie at Porto in the Champions League, but also given that the last starting eleven surely deserve their chance to play together again after last weekend’s scintillating performance.

Raya

White – Saliba – Gabriel – Kiwior

Ødegaard – Rice – Havertz

Saka – Trossard – Martinelli

Enjoy the game everyone!

Come on Arsenal!

Posted in Match Preview | 71 Drinks »

Hammers Hammered at Home

Feb 12th, 2024 by

Engineering works on the London Underground had skewed what would’ve been a relatively straightforward journey to East London, we made it to Stratford in good time via the Piccadilly, Metropolitan, Circle and DLR lines. After a couple of pints with some West Ham acquaintances we made it to the ground. Following some very vigorous security checks we made it to our seats up in the heavens in time for kick off. 

We were sat about half a dozen rows in front of where we were placed on our last visit earlier in the season, a disappointing 3-1 defeat in the Carabao Cup. Would this be a happier visit second time around? 

The away end was packed out with around 3,000 excited Gooners, perhaps slightly nervous on account of recent visits, but reinvigorated after that sensational victory over Liverpool last weekend which propelled us back into the title race when it seemed to be slipping from our grasp. This was another must win game. Anything less than three precious points would render last week’s heroics academic. We had to continue the momentum. 

Arsenal made a positive start, pushing and probing the Hammers. Our play in the final third was as intricate as ever and we went close a few times before we broke the deadlock, most notably on 24 minutes when Martinelli floated over a superb cross from the right which was met with conviction by Trossard on the volley forcing Areola to tip the ball over the bar. 

We were winning a lot of corners in the early stages. A deliberate ploy to catch West Ham out you would think, given that prior to kick off we had scored 14 goals from set pieces, more than any other side in the division. 

And strangely enough, it was from a corner that we breached the Hammer’s resilience. Rice floated the ball over to the back post just past the half hour mark, and William Saliba was on hand to head home. 1-0. If the Frenchman wasn’t there to nod the ball in, Havertz was right behind him and probably would’ve done the same. We are a big side, height-wise, these days and we are certainly using that to our advantage. 

Arseball were right on it now and almost added a second soon after as Saka dinked the ball narrowly wide following more intricate play on the right. And moments later, our number seven won us a pen’ as he was brought down by the onrushing Areola after a defence splitting ball from Trossard. Should the West Ham ‘keeper have seen red? I can only assume he was spared by the double jeopardy rule which I’ve always found to be ridiculous. There was a West Ham defender who could’ve theoretically stopped the ball going in, but Saka would’ve had an open net and that for me is the denial of a clear goalscoring opportunity. 

But Saka picked himself up, dusted himself down and sent Areola the wrong way to make it 2-0 on the same ground where he missed from 12 yards last April. No such problems today. 

And in the blink of an eye, it was three! And it was yet another set piece. Trossard was tripped, Rice swung the ball into a dangerous area and Gabriel headed in at the near post. Game over. It was Gabriel’s 14th Premier League goal since he was signed in 2020, more than any other defender in that time. He is now our second highest scoring defender in the Premier League era, and one would imagine he is right up there with our all-time defensive goal scorers as well. 

Incredibly Arsenal had time to add a fourth before the break. West Ham couldn’t get near us as Odegaard fed Trossard who took a touch inside Zouma and rifled into the top corner. The away fans were in raptures now. “Limbs” as the kids call it. This was the cue for West Ham fans to filter out of the London Stadium in their Tens of Thousands. “Is there a fire drill?” was the customary mocking cry from the away fans. Earlier in the game the home fans had been belting out their quite frankly shameless chant of, “Champions of Europe, we know what we are” but after their side’s hapless first half display there were barely enough of them left to boo their team off. 

Arsenal fans spent the interval scratching their heads in disbelief at the mauling we were witnessing whilst most of the West Ham fans were already drinking their sorrows away in the pub. I do hope they didn’t miss the Second Half which continued in the same vein. Arsenal looked keen to really stick the knife in and twist it and ideally get the goal difference up. As it stood, we were on plus 29, only two goals behind Liverpool and three behind City.

Saka forced a decent save from Areola but he wasn’t to be denied again as Ødegaard, who was running the show, threaded the ball through to Saka who cut inside as he so often does and put away a clinical, Mbappe-like reverse finish at the near post. 5-0!

There were still more than 25 minutes to go, and there were more goals in this for Arsenal if they wanted them. And moments later we made it a half dozen and the goal came from a certain Declan Rice, formerly of the West Ham parish. Martinelli found White on the right who cut it back to Trossard who left it for Odegaard who left it for Trossard. The away fans groaned but the groans turned to cheers as the ball trickled to the former West Ham skipper who curled home a beautiful first-time screamer from 25 yards. There were muted celebrations from Rice out of respect for his former employers but the away fans’ celebrations were the opposite as Arsenal fans went into pandemonium again. Never have I seen the sixth goal in a 6-0 win celebrated so wildly such was the popularity of the goal scorer. 

There was a nice moment when Arteta brought on 16 year old Ethan Nwaneri for the last ten minutes who showed some mature touches in the final stages as Arsenal cruised through to full time. 

Away days don’t get much better than this….

Posted in Match Report | 53 Drinks »

Keep alive the spirit of ’35

Feb 10th, 2024 by

And so the London Stadium on Sunday afternoon to take on West Ham United in the 151st encounter between these two teams founded by Victorian men who worked iron on opposite sides of the Thames. 

Embed from Getty Images

The glow of last Sunday’s glorious triumph over Liverpool still warms. Yet therein lies a danger. West Ham were our next opponents after we had soared high in the 1-1 draw at Anfield in December. We came down to earth with a thud, losing 2-0 in a game we should have won 3-1. 

And that was not the only time. In April, we followed a hard-fought draw at Anfield by dropping two points against the Hammers in another game we should have won comfortably, having been 2-0 up after ten minutes, even with our Starboy missing a penalty.

Previously, our form against West Ham had been solid: 24 wins and only two defeats in a run of 31 games going back to 2007, when we lost at home to a Bobby Zamora goal. All together, now:

🎵When the ball hits your head and you’re sat in Row Z, that’s Zamora.

Or, if you prefer the later version, ‘If the ball hits your car as you pass QPR, that’s Zamora.’

Overall, we have lost only 37 of the 150 games. That included the first league match, in August 1923, against a West Ham team newly promoted from the old Division Two. The Daily Herald’s correspondent was distinctly unimpressed.

It can hardly be recorded that the football displayed in the West Ham United—Arsenal match at Upton Park last evening was the standard looked for when First Division teams meet. The amount of scientific play seen was small, and too often, players failed to place the ball with judgment or keep it down.

West Ham won 1-0. Fletcher, ‘a local, not really worth his place’ (there just was no pleasing the Herald’s man), scored the only goal, a tap-in after our keeper, the five feet eight and a half inches tall Jock Robson, let the ball roll under his body. The Daily Herald was far more interested in the county cricket at Lord’s that day, with Surrey losing eight for 44 after a thunderstorm that struck when their score was 187-2 to give Middlesex an unlikely two-run first-innings lead.

The historical footnote to the (football) game is that Samson Haden made his debut. Perhaps not a name familiar to many ‘holics, the Barnsley-born former coal miner was one of the first teamers to survive the transition from the Knighton to Chapman eras. A broken leg ended the left winger’s time at Highbury after four seasons and 88 appearances. He provided the cross for Charlie Buchan’s first goal, costing Chapman £100, as Buchan’s £2,000 transfer from Sunderland contained an add-on of £100 for every goal he scored in his first season. He got 17.

The opposition

Regular readers of the GHF Predictathon updates will know that our opponents are annoyingly exceeding the low expectations held for them at the start of the season.

After their 14th-place finish last term, the flight of their captain to a proper club and the uncertainty over the continuing employment of their manager (once, incredibly, seriously spoken of as a successor to Arsene Wenger), the consensus among Predictathon players was for 15th this season, with three predicting relegation.

Thus, it is somewhat of a surprise to see them sitting in seventh, partly on the back of the 11 goals of their leading goal scorer, Jarrod Bowen, and partly on the contributions of two of the players acquired with the money we gave them for Declan Rice, the Ghanian international attacking midfielder Mohammed Kudus (six goals) and Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse (five goals and six assists), who has become their No 10.

To those, add five assists by Lucas Paqueta, formerly of Olympique Lyon and now a rumoured target of Manchester Cheaty, and the newly borrowed Kalvin Philips, who travelled in the opposite direction in this winter’s window.

The attack has managed a middling 36 goals in their 23 league games to date, but West Ham ranks 14th in the league for shots taken and 15th for shots on target. The defence has conceded the same number, not a formula for winning games consistently. With three points from their past four league games, scoring three and conceding six, they have stalled, although theirs has been a season of fits and starts.

Yet they are difficult to beat at the London Stadium. They have lost only two of their 16 home games in all competitions this season.

Moyes will set up with his preferred 4-2-3-1, ready his team to sit deep, be physical and look to score on the counter and from Ward-Prowse set pieces. This season, the Irons rank second in the league in goals scored from counterattacks (seven). ‘We’ve scored goals against [Arsenal], and that would be the key again to give ourselves a chance,’ Moyes said in his pre-match press conference, demonstrating the tactical acuity for which he is famous.

Cutting Bowen’s supply lines will be part of his opposite number’s tactical plan. If Bowen doesn’t score, West Ham tends not to win. He has scored just once in his team’s run of six games without a win, although playing him at centre forward out of necessity because of Michail Antonio’s knee injury does him few favours. Nor does the loss of the still-injured Paqueta’s creativity. Both men miss Sunday’s game.

In last weekend’s game at the Old Toilet, Bowen had a couple of chances but fluffed them. West Ham had other chances to score but did not take them either (no goals from 22 shots). The Red Mancs were clinical (three goals from 12 shots), but the scoreline flattered them.

Of the two ex-Gunners now sporting claret and blue, we are more likely to see Mapravanos than Fabianski.

The Arsenal

This is the first of six games before we visit City at the end of March, from which we could get 18 points and probably will need to if we are to win the title. However, each of the matches is a potential banana skin in their different ways.

Reading the runes of Arteta’s pre-match press conference, Zinchenko is unavailable. Jesus is 50-50 and Saka is fit after his latest round of kicking. Partey has had another setback. Tomiyasu has returned from the Asia Cup and faces a late fitness test. I am guessing he will start on the bench. I think Jorghino will stand down to let Havertz revert to his left-sided eight role, and Eddie will lead the line if Jesus doesn’t make it. 

Thus:

Raya

White Saliba Gabriel Kiwior

Rice Ødegaard Havertz

Saka Nketiah Martinelli

The atmosphere at the London Stadium will be much quieter than the Ems a week ago, but the team must not let that dull their enthusiasm. We need to avoid repeating December’s slow and aimless 90-minute meander around the outside of Moyes’s well-organised defence. An early goal will make all the difference. 

So, no slip-ups, please. Anything less than three points will be a disappointment, not season-defining, but slicing our already slender margin of error even finer.

If we win, it will be our fourth-straight league win at the start of a calendar year for the first time since 1935 — a season in which, I scarcely need to remind you, we ended as champions. 

Enjoy the game, ‘holics, near and far.

Posted in Match Preview | 61 Drinks »

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