New Year’s Day sees us playing ‘Tail End Charlies’ for the second week in succession when we make the short trip to Brentford’s Gtech Community Stadium for an evening kick-off after everyone else has played their week 19 fixture.
A visit to Brentwood evokes the memory of their first home Premier League game on Friday the 13th 2021. That was their first top flight game since their 0-1 defeat to Arsenal at Griffen Park on 26th May 1947, their first ever capacity crowd in their new stadium and the much-hyped (at least by the broadcasters), opening match of the 2021-22 season. The home crowd was understandably febrile and the ground was rocking. Unfortunately, Arteta had to field a patched up side due to the absence of both Lafayette and Aubameyang and gave PL debuts to Benjamin White and Sambi Lokonga. Leno was glove butler, Mari played right back and Chambers joined White at centre back with Tierney at left back. The midfield comprised ESR, Xhaka and Sambi Lokonga and the attack, Pépé, Balogun and Martinelli. The game took a familiar course to any Gooner who had been watching the team since the mid-noughties. We dominated possession and territory early in the first half but failed to score and were very susceptible to Brentford breakaways. After several near things we went 1-0 down midway through the first half. Having failed to create any clear chances in the first half we came close several times early in the second half with ESR to the fore but a combination of near misses and David Raya kept us out. Then, out of nowhere, Brentford scored a second from a poorly managed long throw. We kept up the pressure, came close again but Raya frustrated us. Brentford won 2-0 and the crowd were delirious. So were Sky’s di-gnomic duo Neville and Carragher whose masks slipped as they jubilantly celebrated Arsenal’s defeat – none of the usual hypocritical faint praise or feigned concern – they simply joined the Brentford fans’ celebrations.
That 2021 game provides a lesson. As Mike McDonald observed after the Ipswich game, the reason that game was terrible to watch was the control that we exerted both in and out of possession, a phenomenon he terms ‘football strangulation’. Our work off the ball ensured that Ipswich had barely any chances (and no shots on goal) because when we conceded possession – a rare event in the first half – we almost invariably snuffed their offensive transitions out within seconds. As many observed, that game yielded an essential three points but watching it was difficult. That negative emotional response was largely due to our missed chances leaving us with a solitary 1-0 lead that resulted in a tense last ten minutes when Ipswich finally tried to ‘have a go’. This revived those deep scars we all bear from the many past games that we dominated but in which we got suckered by a breakaway goal. Check out Gunnerstown for Mike’s detailed analysis of how we managed that ‘no risk’ game.
However, we have an otherwise excellent record against Brentford since their return to the top tier. In the six games since that defeat, we have won five and drawn one. We have won all three away games, once 3-0 and twice 1-0, including a League Cup tie in 2023. Our record at the Grove is two wins, both 2-1 and a 1-1 draw.
We can expect Brentford to deploy similar low block tactics to those of Everton and Ipswich when Arsenal are in possession. It’s their usual modus operandi against top teams and they are pretty good at it. However we should also expect a more front-footed approach than we saw from Ipswich. When we lose possession they will deploy rapid attacks involving Mbuemo, Wissa and Schade supported by Damsgaard, Norgaard and the wing backs. Against teams like Arsenal, Thomas Frank often plays 3 at the back with 2 mobile wing backs and 4 in central midfield – 2 holding, 2 attacking – to congest the centre of the pitch and gain numerical advantage. This facilitates a high press in defensive transition, whilst In possession they use their numerical advantage to build through the middle. Their formation is very fluid and they adapt to both the opposition and the phase of play, swinging between 3-2-5 in possession, with a high back-line and focused overloads in the channels between opposition centre backs and fullbacks, to 5-3-2 in a low block with a compact centre forcing the opposition wide. They will often have ten men behind the ball, squeezing the pitch by pushing up when the opponent plays a sideways pass or a back pass. The keeper frequently goes long to their forward(s) and they employ similar tactics to Arsenal at corners with tall players grouped beyond the far post moving into the 6-yard box towards the near post as the kick is taken. We should expect to face a high press when we play out from the back and man to man marking in midfield as they aim to regain possession high up the pitch.
Brentford sit in 12th place, level on 24 points with the shower up the road but with an inferior goal difference of 0. They have scored and conceded 32 goals in 18 games. Although still winless on the road, at the Gtech they have garnered 22 points – a joint highest home points harvest along with Liverpool – scoring a PL high of 26 goals in the process. Yet they have failed to keep a clean sheet at home all season. They drew their last game away against Brighton 0-0, and have lost three and won one of the preceding four games. They surprisingly lost their last home game 0-2 to Forest, the only side to win away at the Gtech this season to date, but they won the previous home fixture handsomely against Newcastle, 4-2. In their last game against Brighton, three Brentford players had to go off injured: Mee is reported to be unfit for this match, Flecken is expected to recover from his knock and Norgaard is fine.
Valdimarsson will replace Flekken, if the latter fails a late fitness test, and he apparently performed well against Brighton; van den Berg and Jensen are fit again and return to the squad and the former is likely to replace Mee at centre back. Collins, Roerslev and Lewis-Potter are also likely to figure defensively whilst Janelt, Norgaard, Damsgaard, Schade and Mbuemo will congest the midfield and be ready to support Wissa in attack.
What of the Arsenal? Whilst Sterling is apparently recovering from his knee injury faster than initially anticipated, this game comes too soon for him, as it does for long-term absentees White and Tomiyasu. In the absence of news of additional injuries from the last game it seems that our squad will be the same as was available for Ipswich. However, I expect a different starting XI. In that game, despite starting every available first team forward, we came up with a single goal and away from home against a more ambitious opponent, we need to be prepared for a midfield scrap so I expect to see Thomas Partey return to his usual position (though there is a risk that rotation for Timber might see him deployed as an inverted right back but to the detriment of the right sided threat). I expect Trossard to be the man dropped to allow Partey to return to his holding role and Rice to move forward to the ‘left eight’. There’s a chance that Calafiori will start in place of MLS though I would let the youngster retain his place despite our bench being stacked with left backs. David Raya will start his first game against Brentford since he was at Blackburn. I expect Arteta to keep faith with Jesùs in the hope that he will continue his rich vein of form but predominantly in a wide position with Havertz in the centre and Martinelli as the other wide man but with multiple interchange of position between the front three.
Thus, I expect the following starting XI:
Raya;
Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, MLS;
Ødegaard, Partey, Rice;
Jesùs, Havertz, Martinelli.
This is yet another ‘must win game’ as we must keep pace with the league-leaders, Liverpool, who currently sit 9 points ahead with the same number of games played. We cannot allow that points gap to widen, especially as their next fixture is a gimme against a pretty hopeless Manchester United. History and form suggest a tight, low-scoring contest and I expect a good ol’ 1-0 to the Arsenal, enervating though that will be.
The Holic Pound, I hear you ask. Arsenal are the bookies’ favourites to win, at 9/20 with the draw at 41/10. You can have 1-0 to the Arsenal at 9/1 or 2-1 to the Arsenal at a slightly shorter 17/2. The bookies’ shortest odds are 15/2 on 2-0 to the Arsenal. Take your pick.
We have to win and I expect a rollercoaster. Enjoy the game, Holics.
I’ll take this opportunity to wish Gooners everywhere a happy, healthy and peaceful 2025 with some silverware to admire come May.
I’d also like to thank all our readers and especially to thank the Holics who contribute to this site in multiple ways and without whose commitment this fine memorial to Dave Faber and the global community he built would not exist as an oasis of common sense in this crazy world.
Sláinte mhath!
An excellent preview to ring out the old year, Bath. Hopefully, three points will ring in the new.
It looks like there will be a key cadre of players in this match whose last name ends in “gaard” so I will be taking a position of gaarded optimism that the most important of the gaards will be our Martin whose magical left foot will turn a key trick. Thanks Bath for your excellent preview and a big Happy New Year to you and all the faithful Gooners and Holics in particular. 🥂
Nicely done Bath,
I hope all holics had a wonderful Christmas and can look forward to an awesome New Year
Great work, Bath.
From the dotcom, some interesting 2024 stats.
https://www.arsenal.com/news/stats-behind-record-breaking-2024
Great to hear from you, DG. All the best for 2025.
Bath -spot on as usual. Personally, I would play Calafiori at left back. Well as MLS has been playing, I think against Brentford we may utilise the maturity of the Italian international to gaard (thanks, bt8) against those speedy attacks, using MLS as a sub later on to maintain the energy levels. All in all, a nice problem for the manager to have.
Bath,
What an excellent, well-rounded preview . Very little to disagree with although I join CER in believing that Arteta will prefer Calafiori at left-back. Frank is a crafty tactician but we have managed the GTech well since that fateful day in August 2021 which saw the Twitterati write off Benny Blanco after one game .
I’ve watched a lot of football over the Christmas programme ( and I’ve also watched Tottnumb and ManUre too) . Brentford are very injury -hit but still have a lot of danger men esp Mbeumo and Wissa but we are a very strong unit and I believe we can record a 2-0 victory . At the moment intelligent rotation is almost as important as tactics but if we win I believe we wil be safe from the threat of relegation . Lest people scoff at that as a remark I can remember the first NYD when Arteta was in charge . We were playing ManUre and I was concerned that if we lost we would get dragged into a relegation scrap. Never forget how far Mikel has brought us .
Happy New Year everyone .Here’s hoping it is a year in which we collect at least one shiny trophy
DG@3: Great to see you in. Best wishes to you for as good a 2025 as can be.
Lovely preview Bath. DG it’s very nice to see you.
One point to note is that both Jesus and Timber are on four yellow cards and will attract a one match suspension if they pick up another in this game. The next bar is ten cards after 32 games.
It’s laughable that Jesus, with 429 Premier league minutes played, covering 15 appearances and 4 starts, can have attracted 4 bookings. By comparison Kovacic of C130y has played 1159 PL minutes in 15 appearances with 13 starts and has 3 bookings while Guimaraes of the Barcodes has played 1654 PL minutes, representing starts in all 19 games and has 3 yellows.
Clearly this proves what a dirty cheat Jesus is compared to that nice Brazilian with the exquisite forearm smash and the bloke who has taken on Rodri’s Cloak of (near) Unbookability.
Source: Fbref.com
CER@9: The Brentford game pits together the two clubs that have received the fewest yellow cards this season. By the law of averages, that probably means both sides will end up with nine on the pitch on Wednesday.
Thanks, Bath for a comprehensive final preview of 2024.
Can’t argue with your starting eleven – not that I wanted to – as there really aren’t many arguments to have, especially in attack. I noted today that Cunha has got away with only a two game ban instead of the more expected six or seven. That could make a January move to us more appealing from a management point of view. I would love to see him join – fingers crossed 🤞🏻
I’d like to add my very best wishes for a happy and healthy new year to all our readers and contributors. Good to see you clinging to the wreckage, Depressed G – a special wish for improved health for you, Sir !
We’ve somehow kept this organ going for five years now, Matron ! I know we all hope Dave would be pleased with our efforts. Here’s to him !
Many thanks Bath for an excellent preview. As it’s 6.45AM and I am stepping gingerly into the New Year with my first old fashioned hangover, I will wish you all a happy and healthy 2025!! 🥃🍷🍾
Thanks Bath….you have signed the year off in style. I go along with others in seeing Calafiori ahead of MLS in starting the match but the rest of your te@m looks good.
The Bees are a tough nut to crack at home but we should have enough in the tank to get it over the line.
Wishing you all a very Happy New Year and in particular all of those who have done an amazing job in keeping GHF at the forefront of well informed and sensible discussion.
🥂🍻🥃
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_1uljLoqkhs
I see that the referee will explain VAR decisions on a trial basis in the Carabao Cup semifinals against Newcastle. Too little, too late springs to mind.
And David Moyes got an OBE for services to football 😂😂 Will Dyche get one
next year.
Talking of going down, a Manure manager saying the club was in danger of
relegation is a good start to the new year!
happy new year to a special group of arsenal fans, and friends. here’s to a 2025 that brings us happiness and joy!
Hoots Mon, that’s a braw preview. I like your team and I like the prospect of an away win and if the margin is a solitary goal, that’ll be fine with me.
There are no easy games though these days and I anticipate a difficult tussle tonight and your insightful discussion on Brentford did little to dampen the feelings of apprehension that are lingering within.
Enjoy the game, Holics and all the very best to you and yours in this New Year.
P.S. Don’t these New Years seem to keep coming around ever faster, or is that just me?
No, just you I’m afraid, BtM ! 🤣
Tomiyasu, Zinchenko and Sterling all still unavailable today – that’s a big wedge going completely to waste – time to wish them all a prosperous new year – somewhere else.
A very happy new year to year to all my Gooner friends on here. It’s a special place. I hope it’s in rude health by the end of the year.
Thanks fellas.
@18 not sure we will let anyone go except maybe KT3 in this window Trev.
But I do agree the emergence of MLS means we have too many LBs and
Zin will probably be another to go at the end of the season. Sterling depends
on the next couple of months, if he is very good then perhaps there is a future
on a lower wage deal and minimal transfer fee but otherwise he goes back to
being a Chav problem i assume.
Reiss’s injury complicates the situation a little as his chance to show he can
develop further with regular playing time has gone for a few months.
Brentwood?
No Havertz? Hmm….
Arsenal XI: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori; Odegaard, Partey, Merino; Martinelli, Jesus, Nwaneri
Subs: Neto, Tierney, Kiwior, Zinchenko, Trossard, Jorginho, Rice, Kabia, Lewis-Skelly
Happy New Year, ‘holics one and all.
There is a rumour that there is illness in the squad, which is why Havertz is not playing and some others have dropped to the bench.
So much for the 5 day rest helping….
I note our young Flying Dutchman, Ismeal Kabia, is on the bench. I hope he gets some minutes to establish his Saka understudy credentials.
COYG. Ethan to the forefront.
Excellent corner. Not far off.
1 shot one goal, Are we becoming late Wenger era Arsenal?
Odegaard to blame.
There’s a surprise – referee can’t wait to book the Arsenal player having watched them clump Martinelli twice to stop fast breaks. He Izzy ownly follovink ordahss.
Right, now don’t give them a goal from their next bloody shot.
Get in!
Brentford fans calling us cheats?
These people are so two Bob, following their no-mark, done-nothing, won-nothing club.
We’ve looked much better since we scored.
I think we should run out comfortable winners in the second half. Famous last words.
Yet another sly clout from that bloke who looks like he should be holding a fishing rod in the front of someone’s garden.
Just desserts
I love it when we score from corners!
On to the cheeseboard…
What a hit by Gabigoal!
The two Bees’ gaards have been subbed turning the gaard advantage distinctly in our favor. COYG
Time for me to predict another couple of goals to boost our goal difference.
Well played Ethan. A fine game.
Especially for a 17 year old, out of position.
Last month sone media pundit halfwit described Arsenal as lime Stoke. Presumably he hasn’t watched Brentford.
Gave a sloppy goal away when we looked to be camped on the edge of their box for the duration, kept at it, equalised promptly, established dominance, came out in the second half, blew Brentford away with two quick goals and then kept them at arm’s length. Superb performance. Well done lads. Get your feet up and relax.
Gunners performance tonight almost as good as Bath’s preview.
Much to like. A delight to see Nwaneri contributing so effectively. Thomas Partey superb and the two Gabi’s up front sharing the burden of no Bukayo.
Disappointing to see Timber yellow for a nothing incident. Do we have anyone other than TP5 who can play at RB? Mitoma is hot to handle.
I agree re Nwaneri
Replacing Saka is impossible but he did a pretty decent job . He might have come in earlier as a starter to spare Saka from punishment .
Unbeaten this year ! A very good performance after going behind and without Havertz , Saka , White and (mostly ) Rice . Brentford is a difficult place to go but we had great control once we equalised
Peter Wood reckons there is a group who believe Arteta should be sacked if they don’t win a trophy this season . Any Arsenal fan who wants Arteta to go is completely mad . He is doing a remarkable job
Well and sagely in at the half ton TTG. Seldom have wiser words been said amidst the haste of attempting to score a critically important goal.
Our fan base is terrible. After we conceded the first goal, people were demanding that the whole left side be hooked. Instead, we scored the equaliser and totally controlled the game from that point on, to give Brentford only their second home defeat of the season. We don’t even need to lose a game, just concede a goal, and then many folk totally lose their shit. It’s utterly pathetic.
Failures in life, failures as Arsenal fans. The muppets who tried to beat me up on my way home from Wembley after our 0-3 reverse, in the ‘Mustafi’ FA Cup semi. Turds the lot of them.
Unfortunate, there is no shortage of stupid even in the Arsenal fan base. I suspect many of ithese people have never achieved anything of note in their lives.
I’m so made up by that win. That is not an easy ground to go to. Not particularly pretty but a performance full of grit and spirit. Come on you Gunners.
I agree C100
That was a fine win especially as we went behind and recovering from deficits hasn’t been our forte . I’ve watched a bit of the game again and Partey and Timber played particularly well.
Re Brentford I’m interested in how Frank would fare at a bigger club with a larger budget. He always speaks intelligently but the way Brentford played tonight was fairly sly and overtly physical and they are a side who seem to like a bit of a roughhouse, nb Jesus’s shirt collar as he was subbed . The popular narrative is that they are a lovely little community club – as Bath commented in his excellent preview the 2-0 victory – the Brentford victory that night left Sky orgasmic . But the comparisons with Stoke extend beyond their home shirt colours . Denizens of Old Toilet and the Bowl would expect a bit more football from their team . I think the best up and coming coach is Iraiola.
Well in for the half-ton, TTG.
Flowers for Partey and Nwaneri. The latter had some moments of significant influence on the game, which he had not managed of late. He certainly looks a better understudy for Saka than Martinelli playing on the right. Partey had one of his games of quiet efficiency and authority when he lives up to his reputation of being one of the best in his position in Europe.
I thought Calafiori was wrongly positioned for their goal, which may have caused Raya to not adequately cover his near post. Raya’s clawing of the ball off the line after he had let it slip through his grasp was critical. Going 2-0 down would have been difficult to recover from.
Looking back over this and the previous game puts the Ipswich performance in a different light. The team learned a lot from that game, difficult though it might have been to watch. You could see the benefit when Martinelli switched to the right after Nwaneri went off today: much more coherent attacking patterns. Kudos to Arteta for choosing the right game to practice them.
The latest GHF Predictathon leaderboard has been posted. You won’t believe who has got out of the relegation zone, as they say in the best click-bait circles.
Plus two bonus charts to ring in the New Year.
You know where to find them…
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>