
I understand that there is no such thing called the Eduardo derby. Well, at least, not yet. But in the noumenal world of all footballing possibilities, surely this too must exist. And we can simply bring it into the domain of phenomenon by remembering a player of both style and substance, a player who was equally loved by supporters of Arsenal and their opposition in this seventh matchday of the new format Champions League, and taking just a moment to realize that despite all the fierce rivalries and uncompromising competitiveness that fuel our beautiful game, football is also a great unifier as it connects people across time and space through shared stories, experiences and histories.
Dinamo Zagreb – officially, Građanski nogometni klub Dinamo Zagreb, or “Dinamo Zagreb Citizens’ Football Club” – has experienced their own history through a series of transformations and mutations, including changing their name a few times, that mirror the monumental upheavals of Croatia and Croatians in the last century. And somewhere in the middle of that journey, their trajectory – even if obliquely – was once influenced by Arsenal.
The great Hungary national team of 1940s and 50s – the “Mighty Magyars”, the “Golden Team” – that won gold in the 1952 Helsinki Olympics and missed out on winning the 1954 World Cup (most likely) because of injury to one Ferenc Puskás, was managed by Gusztáv Sebes, who fine tuned a revolutionary WW (3-2-3-2) formation to great tactical benefits, perfectly suiting the creativity and inventiveness of Puskás, Kocsis, Czibor and the midfield prowess of József Bozsik, possibly the first genuine defensive midfielder as we understand the role today. This WW was the inspiration behind the first iterations of 4-2-4 first discussed and put in practice by Béla Guttmann, Gusztáv Sebes and one Márton Bukovi when they were coaching the Hungarian champions MTK Budapest.
The story goes that the idea of WW first arrived in Bukovi’s mind, while the Hungarian was touring England in 1936 with the club side he was managing. Name of the club side? Građanski Zagreb. Inspiration behind WW? The WM formation immortalized by one Herbert Chapman.
The 4-2-4 system was later perfected by the Brazillians and used successfully in their first world cup victory in 1958. Flávio Costa, the Brazilian national coach in the 1950s, and Béla Guttmann – who had survived the Holocaust in a labor camp and moved to Brazil in the 50s – were the key contributors towards the development of the tactical nuances of 4-2-4, a system that required great tactical awareness from its players and courage on the ball, but once mastered can be wonderfully flexible, effective and creative of swashbuckling teams.
So, WM, starting from Herbert Chapman and his Arsenal, moving through Zagreb and Budapest to Santos and Brazil, morphing in the process to a fluid and dynamic tactical system that was precursor to so much of the tactical inventions in later years…a journey later traced in the other direction by Eduardo’s career as he moved from Brazil to Zagreb to Arsenal…
Dinamo Zagreb is the most successful of all the Croatian clubs in the current Croatian first division league, Prva HNL, which was formed in 1992 after Croatia formally declared its independence in the summer of 1991. They have won 25 HNL titles, the next best being their arch-enemy Hajduk Split, with 6 titles. I am a Split supporter myself, and the last time they won the league was in 2004-05, since then it has seen complete dominance by Zagreb, who missed out on the title only once since then to Rijeka in 2016-17.
Croatia, for a nation of less than 4 million people, is quite the sporting success. Especially when it comes to football, where they qualified for all the world cups since 1998 except once in 2010, and in these six appearances earned a runners-up finish and two third place results. A significant contributor to this extraordinary record has been Dinamo Zagreb’s system of identifying talents and helping them grow. The greatest Croatian Striker of all time (sorry, Eduardo) Davor Šuker, came through the Zagreb system. He too, of course, played for us, even though by then his career was coming towards an end and we only saw just a few glimpses of his abilities while playing for the Arsenal.
We have met Zagreb four times in Europe, in two different double-legged ties. In the 2006-07 CL 3rd qualifying round we won both away and at home, by scores of 0-3 and 2-1. In the 2015/16 group stages, we lost away to them 1-2 on matchday 1 before beating them 3-0 at home. That match, taking place towards the end of November 2015, presented us with some truly unusual moments: Mesut Özil scoring a diving header from an Olivier Giroud cross (a perfect replica of many such goals where the provider and the scorer had changed places), and Sanchez scoring his second, and the team’s third, goal of the evening from a sumptuous defense-splitting reverse ball from Campbell, Arsenal’s sole Costa Rican player until now. Typical of late-era Arsène teams, finding any clear narrative about the team from that performance is impossible. We were capable of sublime and ridiculous with equal propensity, while consistency was our obscure object of desire, enigmatic and elusive.
Nearly a decade from then, the current incarnation of the Arsenal team embodies principles founded on a far more pragmatic basis of defensive solidity, off-the-ball workrate, and tactical discipline of a Roman legion. So, even when the famed automatons break down, or the individuals lose their form or musculoskeletal integrity, or invariably the video assistant referees produce infuriating attempts at drama masquerading as sport, we somehow manage to put together an effort that is good enough to see off most oppositions.
And it is vitally important for our season that we get all the three available points out of this match. We are currently on 13 points from 6 matches, with a goal difference of 9. We are fifth in the table but all the four teams ahead of us have played an extra game. If we win against Zagreb, given the goal difference of other teams we will most likely move up to the third position in the table. The top 8 may or may not be mathematically assured by the end of this matchweek 7, but we will be in a very strong position to ensure that on the final day away at Girona. Finishing in the top eight and earning automatic qualification for the second round will allow fatigued legs and minds greater rest in February, and maybe even the possibility of some sunny sojourn away from the gloom of the English winter to lift the spirits towards an unstoppable run at the final stretch of the season.
As Zagreb themselves are only one position outside the second round qualification play-off for teams in positions 9-24 in the league table, they will take it equally seriously. They will also be well rested, as Croatian domestic football is currently in its annual winter break, and more importantly are likely to enjoy some new managerial advantage as Italian legend Fabio Cannavaro replaces Nenad Bjelica as the manager. Dinamo’s last competitive match was on December 22, and while it is possible that Cannavaro will already bring in some of his own ideas and tactics to the team, for an important CL match away at a famous opposition he is likely to keep his faith in the 4-2-3-1 formation Zagreb has been using this season, and as well as in the experienced stalwarts of the team, like Zagorac in goal and Stojkovic in the midfield. They are missing a couple of key players with main striker Petkovic and talented young midfielder Petar Sucic out with injury. But the Swiss born youngster Martin Baturina – already being thought of as a potential successor to great Modric – will definitely try to impress the watching world, including one Mikel Arteta, in his playmaker role.
The Arsenal is of course injury ravaged to a degree eerily reminiscent of Eduardo’s first season at the club when the magnificent young Arsenal side’s league challenge evaporated in the final months with a series of injuries, including one suffered by Eduardo who was maimed by some northern thug masquerading as a football player. The home draw against Aston Villa last weekend saw our attacking quartet running on the proverbial fumes towards the end of the match. A team that was designed to be efficient and ruthless in transitions – in both directions – has now started to find itself being outpaced in counter attacks as the injury depleted squad has started to feel fatigue seep into their minds and limbs. The welcome news of Calafiori and Nwaneri returning is unfortunately dampened by Saliba’s injury, even though thankfully he is expected to return after only a short hiatus. Technically versatile ball-playing defender with an uncanny ability to read the game? I am sure Fabio Cannavaro knows exactly what Arsenal would be missing.
We are one of the best out-of-possession teams in world football, and if we can use our pressing and interception to force turnovers early in the game, create uncertainties and take one or two of the few inevitable chances that we will carve out in the first thirty odd minutes, we will be able to manage the match better. On the other hand, if we let them grow confident in possession and we fail to score early, we may end up finding it a surprisingly difficult encounter, similar to the one we experienced against Shakhtar Donetsk earlier in the autumn.
Given all the injuries, and likely some more players on the margin, it is hard to guess the team Mikel will likely start with. Even though Calafiori is back in full training, I think, given his fragility, it would be best to let him come back up to speed by playing him the last 20-25 minutes of the match. Zagreb doesn’t have any flying wingers on their right, and Zinchenko will bring experience, technical nous and probing forward passes to the midfield, allowing MLS some much deserved rest before the weekend’s league match. Next to Gabriel and Saliba almost all central defenders pale in comparison, and that explains the lukewarm reception Kiwior’s solid performances receive. I think he is a fine enough second choice center back and should be able to deputize for Saliba in this match on the right side of the central defense, with Timber to support him on his right. The temptation to start Jorginho as the pivot will be high, but given how Rice has been performing lately – seemingly fully fit after the niggles of early season – and given how much of a spatial dominance he offers, I will start with Rice in the DM role, play Kai on the left sided eight, and have Martinelli play down the middle as the striker with Leo and Nwaneri on the wings. To add to the tactical flexibility, Ethan and Gabi can switch positions and create different challenges for their defense.
My preferred starting eleven:
Raya
Timber – Kiwior – Gabriel – Zinchenko
Rice
Ødegaard – Havertz
Nwaneri – Martinelli – Trossard
I understand this won’t be to everyone’s liking, and I will be very surprised if Mikel actually starts this way. But much of the joy of being an armchair expert comes from presenting controversial tactical ideas that have the advantage of requiring no validation on the field of play.
Mikel is likely to start with a more obvious line-up:
Raya
Timber – Kiwior – Gabriel – Calafiori
Jorginho
Ødegaard – Rice
Nwaneri – Havertz – Martinelli
I am sure the team understands the value of three points in this match, and I am optimistic that a confident and convincing victory here can signal a revival from our recent doldrums. I think if we score an early goal, we can then focus on seeing this match out without stress. I am hoping for a routine 2-0 victory, with a fair amount of rotation in the second half offering some key players a much needed rest.
Come on Arsenal!
Excellent preview, Dr F!!
Great work, Dr F. Cheers! A convincing win for once would be very welcome.
Great preview Dr Faustus and great historical background on our opponents. Thank you.
But, have Arteta’s “automatisms” been neglected by players and fans alike to such an extent that we now call them automatons rather than automatisms? Here’s hoping the automatisms on display tonight are effective and that our Martin is their premier exponent as he has been in prior years.
Comprehensive stuff, Doc. Very interesting, and with lots of good analysis.
Going by comments in Arteta’s presser, I’m not sure we will see Gabriel and Kiwior together in central defence, so I fear it may be Timber with Gabriel, and more Partey at right back.
You are right that a strong start and some early efficiency when we get chances could be vital if we want to come away with three points in reasonably comfortable circumstances. Otherwise this could easily turn into a tough day at the office, and dropped points might lead to extra games later down the line, which is the last thing we need. Let’s hope our quality shows through and we get the job done.
UTA!
Superbly informative and entertaining preview.
The Eduardo Derby gets my vote. The very mention of Eduardo takes my mind right back in vivid video colour to that horrific leg break, Cesc aghast, Clichy dithering, Gallas failing to lead and the eventual loss of a League title which in many ways lead to the break-up of a fabulous young team. An emotional time.
I like your ideas on tonights formation too, Dr F but I can guarantee (sad to say) Mikel won’t when he reads them here (as I understand he does for inspiration but so far hasn’t left a drink on the bar). The more obvious line-up is indeed more obvious, but I think Nwaneri may feature as a substitute rather than starter. Trossard did quite well on Saturday and probably merits another start.
I will be at O2 arena listening to No 2 granddaughter singing and so will likely miss most of the game. I’m hoping for a very nice surprise when I exit and switch on my phone.
Even as Martin’s accustomed chief partners in those right-sided automatisms, BS7and Benny Blanco, remain out with injury. ☹️
Dr F
Thankyou for a lucid and informative preview .
I shall be at the match and have yet to see us concede a goal in the three home games so far in the Champions League this season . I hope that continues but I also hope we are actively looking for strikers of the quality of Eduardo who was a surprise transfer pick after we had allowed the great Thierry to leave . At times he and Adebayor were a formidable pairing .
As for the team I don’t think Mikel will play a left-footer at RCB so Kiwior won’t start ( phew!) . I wouldn’t be surprised to see Declan play there and for Jorginho , Merino and Odegaard to make up the midfield . The front three will be Martinelli, Havertz and Trossard . I think MLS might play but Zinchenko might be a worthwhile option tonight .
I’m hoping for a comfortable win so I can catch the 22.20 from St .Pancras tonight !
Top preview, Dr F. Wonderful to be reminded of the great Hungarian team of the 1950s and some legendary coaches. I doubt that there is a ‘holic old enough to have seen them play in the flesh, but just watching them on grainy black and white film, you can see how good they were as players and as a team. I also like how you draw a thread through the evolution of tactics. Every great coach stands on the shoulders of those who have gone before, to mangle a reference to Newton.
It’s a fool’s errand predicting the starting XI, especially the back four. We have no natural right centre-back available. Someone will be playing out of position. it is a question of how to shuffle the pack to be as least disruptive as possible. Your preferred team might not be so far off, but with Havertz at No 9, Nwaneri in the 8/10 role and Trossard and Martinelli on the wings. Sterling and Tierney are selection wildcards.
Fantastic preview, Dr F, pulling together so many strands.
As others es gave written, I expect Partey at right back, unfortunately, despite the statistics in terms of W-L-D when he plays there being pretty damning, with Timber at centre back again. I’d like to see Jorginho start, to give Rice a rest. At a push Kiwior can start at left back, enabling MLS to rest too. It’s too much to expect Arteta to start Zinny in midfield, I suppose, so expect Merino to start with Havertz. Win this and I think we qualify in the top 8. That would be nice as it might allow even more rotation next week away at Girona.
Watch out for the pre match lightshow, which those attending are invited to take part in via the app…..
Thanks everyone for the kind words! All around the world, including in football, more things connect us all than the ones drive us apart.
About playing Kiwior on the right side of the central defense, I understand Mikel’s reluctance especially within the scope of a faster and more physical games in PL. Hoped that a home CL tie should be a place where we can give TP5 a rest from his unusual and strenuous RW responsibilities.
We will dominate with the ball early. Just need to make that dominance count.
A minor but important correction to my blog piece above: Bosnian Gooner kindly clarified offline that the great Davor Suker came through not the Zagreb academy but the youth system of another Croatian club NK Osijek. Thanks Bosnian Gooner!
Raya
Timber, Gabriel, Kiwior, Zinchenko
Jorginho, Rice, Odegaard
Sterling, Martinelli, Havertz.
Bench: Neto, Setford, Tierney, Calafiori, Kacurri, Partey, Merino, Nwaneri, Trossard, Butler-Oyedeji, Kabia.
Brilliant preview Dr F, you have set up the game nicely. Congratulations on guessing the defence – bookies would have given you good odds for that!
As you say Dinamo are seeking points to make the play off stage so a hard fought match is anticipated – 2-0 to the good guys looks a good shout.
COYRRR
Excellent preview, Dr F.
Perfect start. Let’s make a statement tonight.
COYG
After that great start we have dominated possession but reverted to a largely ponderous build-up and our defenders have channeled the ghost of Mustafi almost to throw our lead away. In addition the referee could easily screw us with his bizarre decision making. I think we are going to need at least one more goal.
Buck yourselves up, fellas.
Have no fear Trossard will come on for Martinelli and grab a brace and Sterling will break his duck in injury time.
Great preview Doc.
MA8 has instilled in our team to keep possession at all cost. Possession doesn’t win games; goals do. We’re becoming boring to watch, and leaving ourselves open in too many games with one or two goal leads. We have to attack more – we have the talent.
Comfortingly routine win.
Congrats on Butler-Oyedeji getting his debut, despite having to wait longer to get on than he played.
Couldn’t agree more Boff. That was a dreary watch despite the respectable scoreline. Too ponderous, too measured, too deliberate. Like watching an accountant adding up a column of figures and using a slide rule to check the calculation. Only there occasional flash of genius like Kai’s assist and Declan’s shot then Martinelli’s cross and Kai’s header. The final goal was icing on the cake – pleased for Øde. I thought Nwaneri showed how much Sterling has dropped off – look forward to more of the former and less of the latter.
I even began to think that we could do with a reincarnation of Hleb – whom I found one of the most frustrating players I ever watched at the Arsenal (so much talent, so few shots at goal) – to have someone who would drive directly at opposition defenders with the ball under close control rather than continue the almost interminable and largely unproductive passing backwards and forwards then backwards again, with the recurrent side to side passing. And then Nwaneri came on and showed that he will add that penetrative style.
Good job and barring some weird results we are in the last 8.
Yes, a routine win but there is something to be said for slow paced routine wins after several weeks of a game every 3 or 4 days. Great to see Declan, Kai and Ode score.
A very fair point, Matt and an extremely mature judgement. *Slaps own wrist.*
My reading of the table is that a win or draw in Girona secures a place in the CL knockout phase and that if we lose there and all the other results go against us, then of the five clubs we then could be level on points with, Bayer Leverkusen would still have to close a six-goal goal difference (they play Sparta Prague at home), Villa (v Celtic at home) a seven-goal one, Monaco (away to Inter) a nine-goal one and Feyenoord or Lille (they play each other) and Brest (at home against Real Madrid) a ten-goal one to push us into the knock-out round.
bath@18: spot on about Sterling and Nwaneri.
Ditto your self-flagellation prompted by OM@19. 🙂
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but MLS is having a scan
On his knee tomorrow. He jarred it against Villa and initially thought all was ok
Fingers crossed 🤞
It’s seemed a low- key season but we are second in the Prrmier League and third in the Champions League table . And that’s without a striker or
Fingers crossed for MLS, it’s been great watching him come through this season.
What a lovely game. Stress free and never having to get out of second gear. A few more of those please!
Chastening night for Abu Dhabi in the Gulf derby.
Fingers crossed, indeed, for MLS. I had noticed that he wasn’t on the bench. The last thing he wants is for his breakthrough season to be disrupted by a bad injury. Arteta’s caution about overplaying youngsters is well-founded.
I think opinion is divided on the revised group stage of the Champions League . Personally in a season where players are pulling up
lame introducing another two games so that 25% of the teams can be eliminated I think it is cynical and unnecessary
Last night felt like a League Cup game . Very few regulars in my section, lots of empty seats and a different atmosphere. C115y are struggling in this format but do they would in a group consisting of Sporting Lisbon
, Feyenoord and Brugge which might be a realistic group for them . I spoke to innumerable people last night who have found January a football marathon which they are emerging from
There is way too much football and although they earn ridiculous salaries ( exp
Raheem Sterling ) I have sympathy for players who are being run into the ground . Except Liverpool who must have made a pact with the devil to avoid injuries!
TTG @29. I’m going to disagree with a couple of your Worship’s points if I may. Firstly I thoroughly enjoyed last night and most of my buddies were around me as usual (of course North Bank Lower chaps are made of sterner stuff than the plutocratic classes in the upper tier). Secondly I am enjoying the new format of the CL. Next Wednesday should be very interesting and exciting as so many matches have jeopardy attached for either the top 8 or top 24.
Where I agree with you is the fact that there is too much football in the first month (plus 2 days) of 2025. Starting on Jan1 (vs Brentford) and concluding Feb 2 (vs City) we will have played 10 matches. I will have attended 8 (missing only away games at Brentford and Girona). Frankly I am knackered and looking forward to my winter break starting Feb 3. My solution? No more international friendlies and no club World Cup.
TTG@29: I know it is not the point you are making, but UEFA must be delighted at the prospect of some win-or-go-home playoff ties involving the big names, and will declare the new format a great success.
To cut the number of games for top players, you’d have to shrink the top leagues or halt FIFA’s proliferation of the summer tournaments. Iceland’s professional league has 12 teams, so 22 games a season. In American football, the NFL has a 17-game/18 week season plus four play-off rounds. If football went to a 22-week season (still playing continental tournaments mid-week), it would compress the gap between the start and finish, allow FIFA’s summer tournaments to start and finish earlier and still give everyone a decent summer break. However, it would be a political nightmare to get clubs to agree to losing so many fixtures and 40% of them being consigned to a lower division. The broadcasters would need to be sweetened somehow, too. Perhaps one way would be to have the top leagues adopt the new CL format of a hybrid league phase and knock out rounds, and abandon the Victorian notion that a league needs every club to play every other one home and away, which was a product of the days when gate money was clubs’ sole source of revenue, so they needed to be sure of getting as many games a possible. But apart from that…
@31 I think it would be fair to say the new format has been more fun but then the bar was pretty low given the previous group stage. Most people could quite easily predict about 14 of the 16 qualifiers very easily the moment the group draw was made.
Having the play-offs as one leg all in one location over one weekend,
and then the same for the last 16 would be more fun and reduce games.
Though I do agree with C100 on international friendlies, I would also get rid of the
regional country competitions as well and have a larger scale club World Cup.
I know some disagree but two national cup competitions are unnecessary as well.
I suppose I should add I’m very doubtful any of this will happen of course.
I quite enjoyed last night but I wonder how much our knackered players did. We have 32 qualifiers for the competition and UEFA have decided to keep 24 in thereby eliminating 8 . I’m surprised they didn’t devise a repechage for those clubs
We are all relishing the demise of C115y who are currently using their ill-gotten gains accumulated over the years to buy a new team but this fall from grace isn’t the result of this new league . It would have happened under the old system .
– possibly quicker. Ned makes some good points about the way of reducing the load and the unacceptability of that to clubs- turkeys and Christmas and all that . But I do agree we need to refine the international programme. The problem is that football is such a draw on tv and all the companies want a stake which leads to demand for more and more games . It’s killing the product . It’s also odd that we have so many games when the weather is cold, pitches may be unfit and travelling is more difficult
TTG@34: My suggestion would allow plenty of time for a winter break so you could stay warm inside while the players jet off to sunny climes.
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CL-formatting the PL for next season using an 18-week league season plus four weeks for play-offs, four weeks for interlulls, if we must, two weeks for a winter break and four weeks for FA Cup games, all played at weekends with UEFA, league cup and any postponed/overspill games played midweek, would allow for the season to start on the last weekend of September and end with the FA Cup final on its traditional date of the first Saturday in May. That all seems so eminently sensible that there isn’t a chance in a million it will happen.