Well at long, long last it’s happened. Several near misses , unbelievable tension and ridicule from fans of other clubs but eventually it happened. Yes ….an ex- Arsenal player lifted the Strictly Glitterball! Wow, well done Karen Carney …hold on, you say, something bigger than that happened last season? Of course, I’m only being flippant.
Can you remember where you were on 19th May this year at 9.50 pm? Of course you can! It was the moment the final whistle was blown at the Vitality Stadium down in Bournemouth. Manchester C130y had failed to take maximum points against the Cherries and after twenty two years, as Sky incessantly reminded us, Arsenal were champions again.
What did you feel? Triumph, relief, pride, disbelief or a mix of all those emotions? While I had anticipated we would win the league (whatever my Predictathon entry might have said!), the feeling of celebrating a title victory again was extraordinary. That wonderful evening, as tens of thousands of Gooners congregated at the Emirates to celebrate, it became increasingly apparent to many of us that global Arsenal support was significantly bigger than we had realised. Even some of the team arrived at the Emirates in the small hours drawn by the need to be at a place which was at the centre of so many peoples’ universe.
We still had one more league game, a trophy lift, the small matter of a Champions League final to come and finally a bus tour around North London, the impact of which brought most of London to a standstill. Ultimately, we fell just short to an extraordinary PSG side, losing in a penalty shootout in that final, but the strength of our performance and the fact that we had been unbeaten in open play through the whole Champions League season, ensured it was a respectable and narrow failure, even if it did highlight the deficiencies in our squad at the very, very highest level.
The Season in Microcosm
Three successive second place finishes in the last three seasons would suggest that we were very real contenders for the title when the season began, even if Liverpool’s triumph interfered with the narrative that had Arsenal slicing into C130y’s lead over those seasons. However, two Champions League seasons where we reached the quarters and then the semis suggested an exciting trajectory. Yet, Arsenal began the season with a lot of pundits suggesting that if Arteta did not deliver trophies he had to step away from the Arsenal hot seat. Sadly, a large number of foolish Gooners took these stupid prognostications on board. We may have a lot more supporters than we realised but not all of them are blessed with brains or much understanding of football.
Well Arteta has delivered! A seven point winning margin in the league and an incredibly narrow failure in Budapest represent an enormous achievement and confirms that the exciting trajectory charted over the last few campaigns accelerated towards one of Arsenal’s greatest ever seasons, not mentioning a defeat by C130y in the Carabao Cup Final at Wembley.
The summer has been, for a number of us anyway, a time of celebration, of reflection and a chance to decompress after what became, for me anyway, a hugely tense period. The season was followed almost immediately by a World Cup that was exciting, controversial and tedious in equal measure and sadly stained by the corruption of the execrable Gianni Infantino.
Now season 2026/27 is upon us. As we return to the Emirates for the Coventry fixture on 21st August, there will be a new league trophy emblazoned on the honours display around the stadium. It has taken twenty years of occupancy at the Emirates to achieve the status of champions. Now we are all wondering what the immediate future may hold.
Frankly, in my sixty-eight years of supporting Arsenal, I can scarcely remember more cause for optimism than we have now. Our squad is incredibly strong and, as I write, we have added Bruno Guimaraes and Christos Tzolis. The Vinícius Junior liaison was ultimately fruitless, but indicated the genuine ambition and credibility of Arteta’s Arsenal.
Yet, I sense some pessimism and bad vibes among supporters. The reasons relate back to the aforementioned World Cup. Many of our players who had an incredibly intense season went deep into the competition managing injuries which all seemed to worsen during the competition. Three of our finest stars, Rice, Saka and Saliba left the tournament nursing injuries, which in Saliba’s case has subsequently proved to be serious. Many of our players have scarcely recovered from the effects of the tournament before football has begun again. This is true for all our rivals of course but the impact on Arsenal is particularly severe. Those who dislike Arteta hold him responsible for many of the injuries we have suffered but there is no doubt that the impact of the World Cup and the increasing intensity of the Premier League have created an uncertainty that reduces the bullishness you would expect from most of our supporters.
The New Season Awaits
To be absolutely honest I’m not sure if I’m ready for the new season yet! It may seem strange but I found last season extremely nerve wracking and a great sapper of emotional energy. You’d think a veteran of my years and experience would take it all in my stride but I’m so emotionally invested in Arsenal that I often find the televised games agonising. I love going to live matches but I was a nervous wreck at times last season. I don’t think I’m alone. While I don’t have the same investment in England in the World Cup, I need time to decompress before I put myself through it all again. My wife thinks I’m mad! So, imagine how Declan Rice must feel, living your life at that pace, under that pressure! It was so satisfying to win the league last season but we all want Arsenal to defend our title this term with honour and character.
What’s New?
I’m going to start aside from the playing issues. The radical change in our medical and conditioning departments underlines where Arteta believes we need to up our game, although many supporters believe his own training methods are responsible for a second successive season of serious injuries. I prefer to blame those who put the fixtures together which includes Sky and TNT who have created this extraordinarily intense footballing marathon.
At Arsenal, Dr Zafar Iqbal has gone. Iqbal was Arsenal’s long-serving Head of Sports Medicine and Performance. He left after the club conducted a review of its medical and injury-management processes. He had been in the role during the 2025/26 season. He has been replaced by Dr Arnaldo Abrantes, who arrived from Aston Villa and has taken over responsibility for medicine and performance. Tom Allen has also left — this is a particularly significant departure. Allen had been Arsenal’s Head of Sports Science and Performance since 2017, overseeing areas including physical performance, nutrition and performance support. His departure means that a key part of the conditioning structure which had been in place for many years has been changed. Sam Wilson, the lead performance coach, has also departed. So Arsenal haven’t simply changed the doctor — they’ve changed several of the people responsible for the physical preparation of the first team.
Eneko Angulo has arrived from Real Betis as Arsenal’s new Head of Rehabilitation. That is an especially interesting appointment because rehabilitation and getting players safely back from injury were areas that attracted considerable scrutiny and criticism last season and going further back than that.
José Jiménez previously with Bayer Leverkusen, has been brought in as a fitness coach, replacing Wilson. There is therefore a significant change in the actual day-to-day conditioning team as well as the medical leadership.
Over the last few years we have increasingly developed a Spanish influence in our club. I remember once landing at Miami Airport and hearing a continuous flow of Spanish speakers. The Arsenal back room must be a bit like that!
Why Has Arsenal Done This?
I think the important point is that Arsenal won the Premier League despite their many injury problems, rather than because they avoided them. They had a succession of significant absences involving players such as Saka, Ødegaard, Havertz and Timber, while the team also played an enormous number of matches. Arsenal played 63 matches, an exceptionally heavy workload. The club therefore brought in Spanish medical/performance specialist Joaquín Acedo to examine the injury situation. His review appears to have been influential in the subsequent restructuring. This isn’t simply a case of Arsenal saying “we need better physiotherapists.” It looks more like a move towards reconsidering the whole relationship between medical care, conditioning, training load, recovery and return-to-play decisions. That matters enormously for Arteta because his style of football does place huge physical demands on his players. If Arsenal can keep its key players available for substantially more of the season, it could be worth several points over a campaign. How we manage our inevitable injuries and how we rotate our best players will be key to success this season.
The Squad
Assessments of playing resources, carried out some weeks before the deadline, are inevitably going to be speculative. Last year, we signed Eze and Hincapié after the season had started, and it is likely that we may do the same sort of thing again. We may also part company with established members of the squad, having already lost Leo Trossard, Christian Nørgaard, Karl Hein and Jakub Kiwior and others need to follow especially if we are able to generate significant sales income, a part of our trading that has not worked well in recent years. We really do have to get better at selling. I’ve been called out on this for several years but it is galling to see Chelsea and C130y raising serious sums of money for very average players.
I suspect before the end of the window we might wave goodbye permanently to Martinelli, Vieira, Jesùs, Nelson, Nwaneri and possibly Kepa. If we don’t (apart from Martinelli), they won’t play much of a part next season and we’d raise over £100 million from their sales as well as reducing our wage bill significantly. A buyback clause for Nwaneri would enable us to benefit if he does emerge as an outstanding talent. Loans might be very beneficial for Ceadach O’Neill and Ife Ibrahim who have stood out in pre-season appearances.
Some excellent pieces on potential acquisitions have been written on GHF during the summer. It is difficult to ‘scout’ players and expect them to be picked up by the club so what most of us do is to follow the ITK rumours about potential signings. Guimarães looks an exciting and appropriate signing for a title side. He moves the dial in midfield and had Vinícius Jr, (sigh!) joined as well he would have embellished our left hand side, brilliantly. That will be the key focus of our activity and at the moment, despite having signed the very impressive Tzolis, we seem likely to recruit one of the elite wingers out there. That could include Alvarez and might certainly extend to Barcola if the fee is not outrageous. Yildiz of Juventus is another that comes highly commended but were we to pivot to Nico Williams my heart would sink. He looks like a show pony who won’t adapt well to England or the Premier League.
My major concern is the goalkeeping position. We have one of the best goalkeepers in the world who is an integral part of our defence and has the ability to make quite extraordinary saves which turn games. But if he gets injured we have Kepa backing him up, whom I never rated at Chelsea, and who made a pivotal mistake in the Carabao Cup Final. He has already disappointed in pre-season. We have brought in Islan Meslier from Leeds. It is not clear if he is being brought in to understudy Kepa or replace him. Whatever ….be very afraid! I know several Leeds fans and they are absolutely astonished that we have signed him. He was third goalkeeper at Leeds and they released him! There is incredulity at Elland Road that the League Champions have taken him on. Cena , our goalkeeping coach championed Raya but also championed Runarsson and Matt Turner, eccentric choices for back-up positions at our club. A good back-up like Stefan Ortega is essential.
One clear change in strategy is the deliberate acquisition of top-class young talent although whether this is to bolster our own playing resources or to generate serious funds as some of our rivals do, is not fully clear. We are actively raiding other clubs for their youth talent as well as being raided ourselves on occasions. It is as competitive out there as it is in the main transfer market.
The Rivals
I should have got Potsticker to write this section given his outstanding ability to predict league positions but I have seen many predictions about the title and most have our name at the top. Partly this reflects the consistency we have shown in ascending to the top in recent years but it also has to be said that a lot of our rivals are in relative disarray .
C130y have lost the best coach in the world and, in Maresca, have replaced him with someone considerably less impressive. They seem about to lose Rodri and Bernardo Silva has already decamped to the Bernabeu. Elliott Anderson is an excellent acquisition but one suspects that, while they will be formidable all the time Haaland racks up the goals, they don’t induce the fear factor they used to induce. And of course, there is a remote chance that there will be a negative verdict in relation to their 130 charges (some hope!). Liverpool have acquired an excellent coach in Iraiola, but lack a cohesive defence; Salah has gone and they will be contenders but one we should finish above.
Manchester United may find having to play more than 40 games this season more stressful. Tielemans is a good acquisition to strengthen an improving team but while one would expect them to finish in the top four, it would be a real surprise if Carrick can lead them to the title. Chelsea have acquired a top class coach, ten centre backs, umpteen goalkeepers, none of them very good, and have wingers in plentiful supply, as well as top quality midfielders in Rogers, Caicedo and the intensely annoying Fernandez, unless he can engineer a move Their front three is very impressive and they might be the dark horses this season.
The noisy neighbours will have much more to shout about but so they should after spending a quarter of a billion and finishing 17th two years running. They will be helped, like Chelsea, by having no European football. Villa have been very badly hit by outgoings but will still be one of the better footballing sides in the division.
The amuse bouche from Cardiff on a day when C130y lost their best ever player was a genuine surprise and changed the mood around the club and supporters. That was an emphatic performance and reminded us how deep the squad is, how flexible we can be with MLS and Ødegaard performing at that level and how promising Tzolis is. It also reminded us, if we needed reminding, that Arteta is the most driven of coaches and he ate Maresca for breakfast in Cardiff. That was the perfect way to enter the season and was typified by the ability to bring on possibly the best midfield player in Europe as a sub at half time, then, a World Cup winner later on, and we could afford to leave another World Champion on the bench. Don’t forget too that we have two of the very best defenders in world football to come back. Thats an incredible base that Arteta and his coaching team have built.
Discipline
Last year’s preview dwelt on the series of eccentric refereeing decisions that cost us so much in the previous season. The PGMOL were much kinder to us last season. We did not receive a single red card and, in fact, last season, we did not see a penalty given against us. Every Arsenal fan I mention this to grimaces, believing that we will be hit harder by red and yellow cards in the new campaign.
Conclusion
All this suggests that we should have an excellent chance of retaining our crown but the Champions League will be immensely hard to win next season. I started last season by expressing a personal preference to win the Champions League more than the Premier League but this altered as the season went on. The thought of falling short for another season was too much to bear. We now have to achieve something we haven’t done since the nineteen thirties and win back to back titles. My instincts tell me that Berta may deliver ‘a madness‘ late in the window but, whatever, we should have enough depth and quality to make this another very special season.
We are lucky enough to be living through a special time in the history of Arsenal football club. These moments don’t come around in English football very often and we need to enjoy them. Our club is very special to us all. Let us hope we can celebrate more success next season and beyond.
‘Victoria Concordia Crescit!’
A fine summary TTG, which I really enjoyed. I’d take issue with a couple of points. Firstly while I completely agree about a good back up for Raya it isn’t my top priority. That would be a right sided defender to cover White and Mosquera while Saliba and Timber return to fitness,
Secondly if you believe Chelsea and City are getting those prices for their players without creative accounting I have some swamp land to sell you. How strange it’s those two clubs. Ned/Scruz may want to comment about the sale of the LA Lakers.
This is an interesting article about a shifting of the sands within the Chelsea owners. It should be free of a paywall.
https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/e853571d-9e28-4696-b6ed-10804f15a7e1
Here’s another on the same topic
As C100 says, that was a most enjoyable read, TTG, setting the season up nicely. Is the quintuple on, with the first trophy secured, as one of the Predictathon players suggested when submitting their entry? We can only hope.
I am not sure I have much to add to the LA Lakers sale. It is more in Scruz’s backyard than mine. In these parts, when it comes to the business of sport, our attention is on whether the little-loved Dolan family will split its ownership of the NY Knicks (basketball) and NY Rangers (ice hockey) to make one or the other more marketable as a stand-alone sale should the Dolans wish to cash in on the red-hot market for sports assets.
All I can say about Mark Walter’s sale of the Lakers is that he needs cash in hand, as he is under federal investigation for potential fraud related to undisclosed financial dealings involving his insurance companies and private-credit investments. As the brother of Trump’s son-in-law, Josh Kushner, is one of the buyers of the Lakers, hopefully he will be satisfied with that as a consolation prize for not getting to own a slice of the World Cup.
Walter owns a 12.8% stake in BlueCo, Chelsea’s holding company, the same share as his long-time business partner Todd Boehly (and another business chum, Hansjörg Wiss), but he is not actively involved in running Chelsea. He might need to liquidate that holding, too, and is reported to be open to selling it. However, even if Boehly or a complete outsider buys Walter’s stake (or if one or both sell to BlueCo’s controlling shareholder, Clearlake Capital, fronted by Behdad Eghbali and José E. Feliciano), Clearlake will still have at least a 61.5% stake, so I doubt it would change anything at the Bus Stop in the immediate future.
Elsewhere in football lucre, it appears that FIFA has given the heave-ho to its chief operating officer and Infantino critic, Kevin Lamour. “Following recent discussions, Fifa and our Chief Operating Officer, Kevin Lamour, have agreed to part ways,” Infantino’s loyal secretary general, Mattias Grafstromn, informed Fifa staff in an email.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/cn7n4d6vy03o
Wow, so it might be that Boehly has been investing on Private Credit on his the asset side io his nsurance businesses. Which is fine. Apart from when private credit suffers distress. Which has been the pattern for the last year in certain sectors of the credit spectrum.
Oh sorry, reading the article, it is considerably worse than that…
CER@5: To be fair to Boehly (I can barely believe I just typed that), the insurance company he controls, which has been making collateralised loans to group affiliates, may not be engaging in the most fragrant business practices in doing so, given the inherent risk in the circularity of the arrangements, but it is not illegal in the US.
Insurance here is regulated at the state level, not federally. The insurance company in question, Security Benefit Life, is based in Topeka, Kansas. The state’s insurance commissioner, Vicki Schmidt, had proposed tightening the capital adequacy rules for collateralised loans as matter of macroprudential regulation. That would have cost Security Benefit a few bucks. Late last year, a slew of Boehly’s other companies made perfectly legal political donations to Schmidt’s campaign to run for governor. Since then, she has been slow-walking the proposal. You might think there is a connection, but I couldn’t possibly comment. However, our money politics appears to be in robust working order.
Unlike Walter, Boehly is also, as far as anyone knows, not under federal investigation. While the nature of that investigation has not been disclosed, speculation in the financial press about it here suggests that Walter would be in very deep legal hot water if there is any substance to rumours of financial improprieties. Hence, one can only assume his need to preemptively raise cash. The services of Messrs Sue, Grabbit and Runne’s US counterpart, Dewey, Cheatem & Howe, do not come cheap.
Thanks TTG, very informative. I was completely unaware
of Karen Carney’s great success!
As far as the football bit goes, it is amazing how one good
win over C130y with a team that included the miraculously
recovered Declan and Bukayo could dispel the gloomy
lingerers back to the fringes of the goonerverse.
And like you in your conclusion paragraph TTG, I also wanted the CL
more at the start of last season and then changed my mind by about
January! If we are at or near our best for most of the season then I
don’t really care about the opposition as we will win the league again.
Not sure about the CL being immensely hard – there are only about
4 teams that could win it as far as I can see and we are certainly
one of them. The difficult bit is just making it there in one piece!
Less bothered than most about Kepa, but if we do sell
Gabi M then we must get a replacement. Tzolis certainly
looks promising in terms of end product but it’s only
pre-season and way too early to call.
I expect Quansah to sign though I have doubts about
him and think the problem much less acute if Timber
is back before the 1st CL game. I’d play Salmon myself,
if needed, he’s ready but I guess MA may also have Zubi
in mind.
Ned@6 – thanks for that further clarification. Murky waters indeed.
Excellent season preview. I too would like to see Kepa taken hence. Very very hence. Meslier looked good in pre season. I’d like to see Tommy Setford sent out on loan. Ive been hugely impressed with him when I’ve seen him for the U-21s at Borehamwood. I would like to think he’s the future.
As a result of Last Sunday I had to completely reorganise my FPL team and Predictathon (see tab at the top, if you don’t know what this is. Fiendishly difficult and hugely entertaining is the précis) as a result of a performance I did not see coming. If the changes to the medical team – which I hope are progress, not just change. They are not synonyms- can bear fruit, we will be very difficult to stop. Most of all, I was so pleased to see us move the ball forward at speed, along with the requisite personnel support. This was missing last season as Arteta used a belt and braces approach. I hope the brakes are released this season, now the manager has won the big one and we can return to the excellent football we saw in the 3 previous years.
Can’t wait for the season to start.
An extremely comprehensive season preview, TTG. Few writers will deal as well with improvements (hopefully!) to backroom staff in medical/health department as you’ve done here. Sunday’s game at Cardiff has left me feeling as buoyant as the tone of your piece suggests you are ahead of the months of Arsenal about to wash over us.
While there are few right sided centre backs closer in style and competence to Saliba than Christhian Mosquera, I have to agree with C100 that another injury to a right sided defender would leave us badly exposed (sorry Matt, Salmon isn’t quite ready for prime time – although very close and he’ll feature against lesser sides). Hence the unfortunate need for recruitment there. If we recruit experience, hopefully it will not be in the footprint of Norgaard.
Havertz return immediately strengthens our attack and we can hope that Victor builds on first season and excels in his second. However, an exciting shiny new left sided attacker would lift my spirits even higher. Do your stuff Mr Berta.
Speaking of dodgy deals I saw this on X.
“Saudi Arabia’s PIF has invested in Clearlake Capital. In 2022, Todd Boehly’s Eldridge Industries & PIF jointly invested $900 million in Aman Group. Boehly has visited Saudi in regards to Chelsea player sales.
Oh, speaking of player sales – PIF holds majority stakes in the four Saudi clubs (Al Hilal, Al Nassr, Al Ahli, & Al Ittihad). Chelsea sold Koulibaly, Mendy, Ângelo & João Félix to those clubs for over market value fees.
I’m sure there’s nothing weird going on here though.”
C100@13
Well we can be certain that if Chelsea’s owners are guilty of sharp practice the full disciplinary force of the Premier League will be visited upon them- a £5k fine
That’s a tour de force of a season preview, TTG, and we won’t read a more comprehensive or enjoyable one anywhere.
Hopefully that new medical and fitness team can pre-empt injuries and where they have been unavoidable, facilitate brisk recoveries.
I agree that, barring accidents or skullduggery, we should be optimistic that we will finally successfully defend the league title. Our stellar performance in Cardiff gives me further optimism that we can go one better and finally lift Big Ears but cup competitions carry even more jeopardy. That would trump a domestic double for me but that too would be a nice follow-up to last season’s achievements.
Bring it on!
C100@13: Is this new PIF capital? Three years ago, PIF invested in one of Clearlake’s funds, and there were concurrent reports that Chelsea players were being bought by Saudi clubs. If it is new PIF money, is it an investment in one of the firm’s PE funds — and Clearlake is primarily a tech PE company — or in the ownership of Clearlake or BlueCo itself? There is a massive difference.
Ned@16. I don’t believe so. I think it’s the 2022 investment being referred to.
Many thanks TTG for an excellent season preview, and may the season be another glorious one completely free of injuries. If only. As for the refereeing bits I saw this on the dot.con
“This season, we may see a host of fresh faces overseeing matches. That’s because referees for Premier League fixtures will be selected from the new Professional Referee Group, which will provide officials for both the Premier League and the Championship. The group includes 39 referees in total, with a good percentage having never handled a top-flight game before.”
It couldn’t possibly be worse than heretofore. Could it?
Insightful season preview, as always, thanks TTG!
And before that, a most enjoyable report of a very enjoyable Community Shield match — thanks Bath!
There should be some novelist out there with a good grasp of the sport finances who can weave together a compelling narrative of this microcosm reflecting all that’s unfolding at the wider level of our times.
My primary hope and desire for this season is finally, finally, winning the Champions League. It’s time — we are one of the two best team in Europe now, and need to make it count.
Best wishes to everyone for the upcoming season.
Come on Arsenal!
C100@17: Thanks for the clarification. Clearlake has just closed a new fund, raising $14.8 billion for AI and AI-adjacent investments. I couldn’t find PIF or its VC arm, Sanabil Investments, among the publicly disclosed subscribers.
There are reports that PIF is in talks with US investment firms to create a $40 billion AI-focused investment fund in the US, but the granddaddy of Silicon Valley VC investors, Andreessen Horowitz, seems to be its preferred partner. Andreessen Horowitz has shown little appetite for sports investment. Its portfolio includes only a slither of e-gaming and sports performance and analytics tech companies. No ownership stakes in teams.
However, Saudi investment needs to be closely monitored. The kingdom is recalibrating where sport fits into its strategic economic transformation plans and, at the same time, wants PIF’s investments to be commercially self-sustaining (Exhibit A: Newcastle Utd). Nonetheless, while it is jettisoning golf, football remains at the centre of its broader ambition to become a key hub in global football ahead of hosting the 2034 World Cup. In May, it signed up to be FIFA’s official tournament sponsor, and who knows what (more) might rub off on it from that association.
On the sun-kissed uplands of wholesome, honest competition, unsullied by investment capital and creative accounting, the GHF Predictathon resides.
If you haven’t already submitted your entry, a reminder that there are just three days left until the deadline — one hour before we kick off the new season against Coventry City on Friday evening UK time.
If you haven’t played before, details and a link to the entry form are available under the GHF Predictathon tab in the menu at the top of this page.
If you have played before, encourage friends and family to join the lists. The more, the merrier, and the greater our potential donation to Bob Wilson’s Willow Foundation.
In yet more money news, The Athletic reports that the Amit Bhatia-led consortium is buying close to a 40% stake in Liverpool from Fenway Sports Group, not the 30% as previously reported, and that it has an option to take majority control in 12 months.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7521009/2026/08/18/liverpool-sale-stake-jeff-bezos-takeover/
On top of that, a lawsuit has been filed that could put an oar in Mark Walter’s agreement to sell his stake in the LA Lakers to Bob Igor and Josh Kushner, which, in turn, could restore impetus to Walter’s efforts to sell his stake in the Bus Stop to Clearlake Capital, which might also jiggle along a prospective sale of Todd Boehly’s stake.
It is hard to keep up.
Ned @22, I sincerely hope that the new Mugsmasher consortium proves to be as scatter brained as Hicks and Gillette rather than as focused as the Fenway crowd who have clearly decided not to invest in the major Scouse rebuild alone, or maybe even at all.
The first competitive match at the Emirates Stadium took place twenty years tomorrow.
How do I know this ? An AI generated reminder, an Arsenal focused diary entry, calls from Gooners etc etc ?
No the answer is that twenty years ago tomorrow my daughter was married at Penshurst Place . Normally I would have been delighted to walk her down the aisle but I couldn’t miss the first match could !?
Actually I was delighted to carry out my proud duty even though a lot of the guests expressed surprise that I was in Kent rather than North London . My wife was less than amused by these comments and as you might expect the threat of divorce lingered in the air as I jested for some weeks about not wanting to give her away to a Spud fan .
WiFi at Penshurst Place left something to be desired although I had to consult it surreptitiously. (The wedding began at 3pm )
When I did get some reception we were trailing but my second consultation brought news of Gilberto’s equaliser . Later in the day Spurs lost at Bolton and apparently I made ten negative references in my speech to Tottnumb . Well you have to don’t you? A lively book was generated on this subject . Happy memories although three points would have been nice . Has anyone else had to balance domesticity and Arsenal along these lines?
Nothing quite so heroic as yours, TTG, but back in 1993, I was away in Europe in a business conference. At the end of that week I had arranged for my then girlfriend to fly out to meet me for a weekend. This was so I could, unknowingly to her, propose. This weekend coincided with the FA Cup final against Sheffield Wed. We had, earlier in the season, already beaten Sheffield Wed at Wembley in the League Cup, so I figured I could miss out. She said yes (eventually, but that’s a story for another day), the match was a draw and I got a ticket for the replay which we won the following week. Job’s a good’un!
Bath@23: My two cents is that FSG is remembering the old investment adage, you haven’t made a profit until you take it.
They will be a hard act to follow, but it is difficult to imagine that anyone would be able to make as complete a Horlicks of ‘Pool as Hicks and Gillette did.
TTG,
Dunno if it qualifies as domesticity but in the mid 80s I borrowed my sisters car to drive to Ipswich away as mine was hors de combat. Unfortunately, I promptly totalled it into the back of a Porsche in torrential rain on the A12 (?) near Romford on the Friday night. In the circumstances I took the only reasonable course – set off across country with a couple of friends to Romford train station to get a handy train to Ipswich, watched the game on the Saturday and informed my sister of her cars whereabouts (A12 lay-by) on my return on the Sunday. She took it badly.
Arteta, interviewed by Men in Blazers’ Roger Bennett. Well worth a watch.
OM@27: No wonder you had to flee to Japan…
OM@27
I don’t think I could puill that off. But then I don’t have a sister! And you hit a Porsche . Classy ! At least you told her and didn’t say it had been nicked!. I think that puts you in the lead so far
TTG,
I completely forgot that alls well that ends well –
Charlie Nic got one and we won 2-1!
Ornstein reports that we are “closing in” on Kansa
https://x.com/david_ornstein/status/2090023991775838668?s=61&t=cVFjCyGkt4y-Ne45LtfqkQ
Or indeed, on Konsa
HOLICSROPEYLEAGUE
Entry code 18nlle
Hi all, as we only have a couple of days until kick-off
and I will be away I am leaving the entry code above for any late entries
Deadline is 18:30 UK time this Friday
Best of luck to you all 😃
OM
Thankyou for this . I hope you’re not nicking a car and heading off down the A12?!
According to Matt Scott, who is very authoritative on football finance, Chelsea are in deep shit financially.
https://x.com/matt5cott/status/2090046559371047083?s=61&t=cVFjCyGkt4y-Ne45LtfqkQ
Arsenal have signed Konsa!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/c98vz9jvg0vo
So I know some people don’t do X. So this is a cut and paste from Matt Scott, a journalist specialising in football finance.
“ Something I didn’t refer to yesterday was this from the auditor’s statement to the Chelsea Football Club accounts:
“The company meets its day to day working capital requirements from operational cash flows *and intragroup funding* from… Blueco, an intermediate holding company… in both *the base case* and reasonably possible downsides, *the company will require additional funds*, through funding from Blueco, which ultimately requires support from the consortium led by Clearlake and Todd Boehly, to meet its liabilities as they fall due.”
So in a normal year, Chelsea need owner sustenance – cash injections – just to pay the bills and keep the lights on. Forget new stadiums, transfer activity, loan repayments and all that. Even paying for upgrades to the existing stadium and training ground isn’t something they can afford.
This is about their actual, day-to-day expenses; the wage bill, utility bills, insurance, travel and all that. Already Boehly either wants out or he’s been pushed. Same for his business partner. Chelsea need to find someone who’s prepared to write a cheque every single year to keep them going.
My contention is that, in the current market, they will find that very hard indeed. But if you do happen to know any multibillionaire Greater Fools, do put them in touch with Stamford Bridge. Looks like they’re going to need at least one…”
C100@38- thanks for that. Quite amazing. And at the same time both edifying and amusing.
Regarding financing from prospective multi billionaire fools, can I throw my hat into the ring and tell them I have a lovely bridge to sell.
It would seem to me, as someone who was part of Executive teams running businesses, that Chelsea must be close to breaching their banking covenants. And that would be a world of pain.
Konsa is such a good signing to remedy the vulnerability that has developed on the right side of our defence. With our anticipated number of games next season, he represents the same kind of signing as Guimarães – a top, oven-ready PL player who can fill multiple roles and is capable of immediately replacing the absent Saliba and spelling both Mosquera and White in the short term and Saliba, Mosquera, White and Timber in the medium/long term. More importantly unlike Quanta, at 28, he won’t obstruct the development of Salmon who, at only 16, looks nailed on for a great future but doesn’t need to be exposed to PL embarrassment at this stage of his career.
And, moreover Konsa’s a Gooner and a good chum of Bukayo.
Good business, lads.
Meanwhile, I look forward to hearing that the Chavs are being sold to another scheister for £1 again.
C100 is right about the potential problems with the banks at Chelsea .It also may explain why the Premier League have treated them so leniently.A bankrupt mega club is not a good look
Meanwhile our trolley dash to accumulate young talent continues as we take two from Manchester United
https://dailycannon.com/2026/08/scanlon-ogunneye-arsenal-interest/
@41, agree on Konsa. Good add.
Alvarez would now be the icing, candle and cherry on top of a very nicely baked cake.
Reports that Alvarez is going on strike from tomorrow. His heart was set on Barca but nowhere just wants a move.
C100@40: To my mind, it is not the operating cash flow that is a significant worry for Chelsea, it is the debt held within its ownership structure. Its owner, BlueCo, is a highly leveraged private equity vehicle whose solvency, ultimately, depends on Clearlake’s support if the football club cannot generate the revenue from broadcasting, sponsorships and player trading to remain a going concern, which it currently does not do.
True, from an operating profit and loss perspective, the situation is improving. The football club is (perhaps a tad optimistically) forecasting revenue to increase by more than one-third to £700 million (FIFA Club World Cup winnings, new kit sponsorship deals, profit on player sales, 8% hike in ticket prices, etcetera) and a two-thirds cut in operating costs to £91 million, which would mean a cut in its pre-tax loss from 2024/25’s £262 million to £40 million.
That would (i) be well within its 2025 settlement agreement with UEFA for financial breaches (and not having European football this season gives it additional financial headroom under the settlement, although missing CL broadcasting revenue will hurt) and (ii) easily covered by a deep-pocketed owner like Clearlake Capital.
It would also be hardly unique among PL clubs to need its ultimate owner to provide working capital. The football club owes BlueCo £2 billion, but that is an interest-free, open-ended loan. It has no external debt to worry about.
The debt problem lies higher up the ownership chain, with £1.4 billion of external debt held at various levels of the intermediate and ultimate holding companies. The scary bit is that the £794 million senior term bank loan — more than half the total external debt — comes due next July and will need to be refinanced or repaid. Refinancing the loan is likely to be significantly more difficult and expensive than when it was taken out in 2022.
It should also be noted that the senior bank debt is held by an Intermediate holding company. This is a specific financial vehicle that serves little purpose other than to shield the football club’s profit and loss account from potentially damaging breaches of loan covenants. Those are not publicly disclosed, but I’ve read that some of the collateral for the loan held by the banks consists of shares in the football club’s operating company and in its sister club, Strasbourg.
The bulk of the remaining debt, the original £410 million payment-in-kind (PIK) financing from Ares Management, is held by the ultimate holding company and is not due until 2033. For those unfamiliar with them, PIK financing is a form of private credit that capitalises interest into the principal, which is repaid in a lump sum at maturity. Ares was owed an estimated £595.9 million as of July 2025, and that figure is forecast to exceed £1 billion by 2033.
The PIK financing relieves BlueCo of the immediate cash burden of interest payments, but creates a long-term solvency risk. Typically, PIKs comewith strict conditions. When John Textor defaulted on his private credit agreements with Ares, the firm put part of his Eagle Football holding company into liquidation. These boys don’t play games.
But it would be sort of fun if the same thing happened at the Bus Stop.
Some good and interesting points as always Ned. But I am slightly surprised that you have so little concern about cash flow.
I am reminded of the old mantra “sales are vanity, profit is sanity, cash is reality”.
That’s a meticulously explained piece Ned. Effectively Chelsea are dependent upon the support/ goodwill of Clearlake . If I were running Clearlake ( not likely!) I’d be asking where my profit is ultimately going to come from . As someone who worked in insurance I am familiar with the concept of high initial costs consuming capital but an insurance company acquires an embedded value which hopefully generates profits in time . My company developed many financing arrangements for nascent companies and we would advance funds to them to meet heavy initial expenses based on things like the likely volume and quality of business , the quality of management and obviously a very strong and credible business plan.
I’d be interested to see the document that the football club has persuaded Blueco/ Clearlake to sign up to!
They’ve got way too many players most of whom they paid too much money for . They are on contracts that are way too long meaning they could be stuck with unsaleable players until the end of those contracts . Their ability to generate higher match receipts is compromised by their geographical situation in one of the most expensive parts of London and no obvious space to build a new, bigger stadium. They’ve slipped out of any European qualification for next season and still need to buy a number of players to improve the squad . Where is the exciting business opportunity for Clearlake ?
Interesting interview by Richard Garlick: “We don’t need to sell but better to sell if opportunities come for good housekeeping.” Understandably the academy duo tops that list as they generate most profit. This may very well be pragmatic and thoughtful, but why say it out loud?
Maybe it doesn’t help with the team morale? The Martinelli thing wasn’t handled the best. Something for the club to get better at, maybe? Can we be rightly ruthless without being cold?
The close-knit collectivism is a strength and it’s a unique value that attracts and retains talents as well as forms a closer connection between players.
Be ruthless and pragmatic in business, while being sympathetic and supportive to players. It can be done. No need to be a dick.
And, controversial opinion maybe: both Gabi Martinelli and Noni Madueke are 25, whereas Ethan is still a teenager. Among these three, if we should sell one my preference would be Gervinho II (albeit a more elegant version). 🙂
I see Man United are about to sign a midfield general from Brighton .
I didn’t rate the lad at first but then I saw his face and I’m a Baleba
I’m carrying my coat to save time
C100@45: How much cash there is in the cigar box at the end of each day, of course, matters to some extent. Yet the ownership structure is designed to ensure there is always something in there, so the football club remains a going concern, even if some cash ultimately comes out of Clearlake’s pocket. As the football operations run at a loss, some of it has to, but those pockets are very deep and can sustain repeated capital injections into the football club.
The operational loss is shrinking quite rapidly, however. True, it has to, because of the UEFA settlement, but the club is also ramping up its commercial revenue, which has been surprisingly laggardly to date, given the US sports backgrounds of its various shareholders. There are new full-season kit sponsorships this term good for an additional £50 million, and it still has £64 million from its 2025 World Club Cup win to book in its next set of published accounts (who doesn’t love FIFA?). No European football this season will hurt broadcasting revenue, but that will be partially offset by a general uplift in broadcasting rights revenue. I would guess that net player-trading earnings are falling short of target. Admittedly, that is a red flag. Those are core to the business model. I am sure they will try to squeeze the Cucurella sale into the 2025-26 accounts, as that would make the numbers look rosier.
The anchor point of my view that it is the debt that matters when looking at the Chelsea finances is that the goal of private equity owners like Clearlake is not to build self-sustaining businesses that will last for generations and can be passed down to sons and daughters, but to increase the value of the asset they have bought so they can sell it for considerably more than they paid when it comes time for them to cash in with an exit — or, as they would prefer to say, pass on the privilege of stewardship of a historic sporting institution. What they have to pay for the money they borrowed to buy the club and the working capital to run it while they grow the valuation, and the repeated capital injections are just resource costs to be factored into the final calculation of asset value, which, if all goes to plan, has increased by more than enough to pay off any outstanding debt and still leave plenty over to walk away with.
My back-of-the-envelope calculation is that Clearlake has to double the club’s valuation to around £6 billion to reach the point where an exit starts to look financially worthwhile.
If the debt becomes more expensive or harder to replace, that pushes up the valuation Clearlake needs to reach to deliver a decent return on its investment. The is no doubt to my mind that its debt concentration is its biggest systemic risk. Next July’s bank loan refinancing will be critical. It is a big chunk of change, and I doubt BlueCo can borrow that much as cheaply as they did in 2022, given how interest rates have been rising. I am also surprised they haven’t managed to swap out some of the PIK financing. It is very expensive money. Borrowers usually try to pay PIKs down or off as quickly as they can. Who knows what the terms of the agreement are, but it would be reasonable to guess that, in the circumstances, Ares is holding some strong cards, or at least extensive conversion rights. As I mentioned in the earlier post, this isn’t its first time in the rodeo with Americans who think they have found the magic elixir of ‘the hidden reservoir of value’ in multi-club football ownership.
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Ned. Thank you for your detailed reply. I feel you are maybe missing my point. More companies go bust due to cash flow – usually the inability to make payroll than to not being profitable. Indeed many profitable companies have gone bankrupt due to cash flow issues. Many football clubs have gone the same way.
Clearly Chelsea can only pay their bills if the owners dip extensively into their own pockets each and every year. I do not say that, Matt Scott does not say that, Chelsea’s own auditors have said that on the record.
Now if Clearlake are willing to cash subsidise Chelsea each and every year in the same way that Abramovich did then all is fine and dandy (excepting regulators). But are they? When I was working I was responsible for 60% of a company (about $0.6B turnover) which was owned by New York based private equity. As TTG says these are not patient people. They also have shareholders to answer to. Add in all the excellent points you make about debt and the picture doesn’t look good. They owe £400m in transfer fees. This summer they continue to spend like sailors on shore leave e.g. Morgan Rogers. No European football – that’s £100m that won’t be in the revenue line. At some point Clearlake will turn off the taps or be fired by their owners, or try and sell. Will there be a buyer at a non fire sale price? Their enterprise value must be through the floor. Don’t forget they don’t own their own ground. A supporters trust does.
I agree with all of your points above. But no cash means no business. And Chelsea are not immune from the cash flow trap, when their own owners have the wolves at the door.
I’m enjoying the debate!
C100@50: First off, well in for the half-ton.
I think we are going to end up agreeing to disagree about the blight that has descended on the Bus Stop. We have much the same view of the numbers, the circumstances and the risks, but we are looking at them through the prisms of different business models and thus coming to different conclusions.
You see the cash burn at the football club as existentially unsustainable, but I think that is designed into the bigger capital structure of BlueCo — if, admittedly, not at 2024/25’s £262 million level, which I would suggest is why Clearlake has elbowed Boehly aside from running the club and got the pre-tax loss down to around £40 million for 2025/26, and falling: a quarter of a billion here and a quarter of a billion there, and pretty soon you are talking serious money, to paraphrase an old saw.
Yes, no cash eventually means no business, and that way lies insolvency. But the cash is there in the tiers of the capital structure above the football club, mostly in the form of equity injections. (That is were the debt is kept, too.)
You also see pressures on Clearlake to stop that cash flowing that I don’t see to anything like the same extent. Its founders, Behdad Eghbali and José E. Feliciano, own 80% of Clearlake, which in turn owns 61% of BlueCo. Their BlueCo consortium partners, the minority shareholders Boehly, Walter and Wyss, are in a poor position to exert any pressure on Eghbali and Feliciano at the moment.
Clearlake’s stake in BlueCo is held through a Cayman Islands intermediary that received debt financing (undisclosed, but perhaps £300-450 million) from Clearlake Opportunities Partners III (COP III), a Clearlake special situations fund. That fund will have limited partners (i.e., outside investors), but Clearlake is the managing partner, so servicing that should be manageable. Not a likely pressure point
Despite some press reports to the contrary, there has been no regulatory disclosure that any of Clearlake’s equity funds have taken a position in the intermediary or in any BlueCo entity. So there should be no significant investor pressure on Eghbali and Feliciano from that direction. Nor has Clearlake’s private credit platform, WhiteStar, disclosed any Chelsea-related exposures. Private co-investment vehicles are always possible. These are never publicly disclosed, but would likely be small fry in the grander scheme of things. Eghbali and Feliciano’s bigger pain points will be their bankers (JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America) and Ares Management, due to the PIK financing.
The fact that the COP III and the PIK financing mature in 2033 suggests to me that Eghbali and Feliciano have given themselves up to a 10-year window for this project, which I believe they view as a pure asset play. Even if their time horizon is a more typical PE one of seven to eight years, they are still only four to five years in, well within their own window of impatience.
I’d guess they’re a bit behind plan on the trajectory to grow the valuation, as ‘unlocking the reservoir of hidden value’ through multiclub ownership isn’t proving as straightforward as expected (who’d have guessed?). As TTG pointed out, stadium redevelopment is crucial for revenue generation but isn’t proving easy either (and would be a major impediment to a sale). Nor has the team enjoyed the unbroken run of lucrative CL football that was expected. That is partly offset by the Club World Cup windfall, but they can’t afford to miss out on CL football again. The refinancing of its debt could be punishingly expensive. There are still massive regulatory risks from UEFA over its financial rules and the four-year settlement for past transgressions, and to a lesser extent from the PL. Lots of places it could all go pear-shaped, no argument.
Large-revenue, loss-making, highly leveraged sporting assets, especially rare trophy ones based in London, defy conventional valuation models. Chelsea’s enterprise value is probably best guessed at around £3 billion- £3.5 billion on a crude revenue multiple of 5-point-something, which seems about right for a top six PL club with some significant downsides. Taking all the debt into consideration, its equity value may be one-third that. Boehly’s suggestion that Clearlake should buy his stake based on a £5 billion enterprise valuation is pure fantasy.
The realistic guesstimates would leave Eghbali and Feliciano underwater at this point, although less so than they were a year ago. That said, I don’t see any indication that they want to throw in the towel at this point or in the foreseeable future. They must be looking at Fenway Sports Group getting a £5 billion-plus valuation for Liverpool, which made a similar scale of operating loss as Chelsea last year on not too dissimilar revenues, and think that it is still game on for them, too.
Enough of distant parts. Returning closer to home, I agree with Bath and BtM that Konsa is a good signing. Villa has probably gotten a good price for him, but he fills an immediate and a longer-term need for us that justifies a small premium.
Sorry, TTG – very late again but thank you for yet another very enjoyable, excellently constructed piece which hit all the right notes – and even in the right order !
The detail on the changes to the medical structure at the club was really interesting. There seem to be a lot of heads of a lot of departments there. Let’s hope they all agree on the important matters and ways to proceed. I will be very interested – and optimistic – to see how we fare with so many new personnel in place. I was probably the most vociferous person in this bar regarding the need for change in our medical and conditioning departments. A bit presumptuous of me maybe from such a distance but it seems someone a lot closer to the real situation was of a similar opinion. Fingers crossed.
Trev
Thanks for your comments
I detailed the changes to the medical and conditioning departments because of your input during last season. I happen to agree about how pivotal the proper management of player welfare and conditioning is and clearly the penny has dropped at the club
It may well be that we’ve leaned into the KSE empire to see what ideas they have and whether we can learn from other disciplines in the management of players . Maybe this is the American board members’ influence being brought to bear .
One technique is to build two teams and that is what we appear to be doing!
This analysis is only for financial nerds but I thought Ned might enjoy it.
https://x.com/theesk/status/2090319707261833482?s=61&t=cVFjCyGkt4y-Ne45LtfqkQ
This piece from Keenos adds a new perspective to the issue of buying and selling players (at least new to me!):
@56 Excellent.
C100@50: Thanks for that link. I have come across Paul Quinn’s work before. He certainly gets down in the weeds of the financials, and a lot of those weeds tower above my head, but it’s fascinating stuff. I will take that particular piece as support for my view on the importance of the debt. 🙂
Bath@56: My takeaway from Keenos piece is that we buy thoughtfully to improve the team, and let the sales chips fall where they may. Sometimes keeping things simple works best.
At the time Francis Cagigao spotted William Saliba he also spotted Wesley Fofana and recommended both players to Arsenal (or so I once read somewhere and initially I thought we’d missed a trick based on Fofana’s early performances).
I did see a post that indicated Chel$ki would listen to offers for Fofana. I wonder if Berta put in a call?
Irrespective, Konsa is probably a better bet.
Twenty-five of 28 BBC football pundits tip us to retain the title. We are doomed, I tell you, doomed.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/cp8edryd7plo
A reminder to Predictathon players. Barely 24 hours left to get your predictions in if you haven’t already done so.
BtM@59: Transfermarkt counts more than 170 games that Fofana has missed due to injury over the past five seasons, to Konsa’s 11.
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