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Fourth play tenth tomorrow evening at the bus stop in Fulham with a ten-point gap between them. Despite the gap, there are several parallels between the clubs. Both have experienced recent decline in status, though Arsenal’s decline is currently more severe. Both have responded by appointing ambitious, young, former players as coaches and have unveiled exciting crops of youngsters who are making an impact on their first teams. However, Fat Frank had a preseason to work on a squad which finished last season respectably in fourth place and as Europa League winners. In contrast Mikel Arteta has had to pick up the reins of a club in meltdown at the busiest period of the season but he has quickly transformed several key players and the team’s performances without yet capturing winning form.

In September 2017, the Guvna observed that our visits to the bus stop at Fulham hadn’t been the happiest of trips for a few years and while we haven’t taken all three points in the interim, we have achieved respectable performances and results. We bagged consecutive nil-nil draws from our visits in 2016-17 and 2017-18 and in 2018-19 were unlucky not to take at least a point from a 3-2 defeat in Unai Emery’s second game in charge before his dead hand had its full negative influence on our play.

Mikel Arteta is at an early stage of rebuilding Arsenal’s confidence, belief, organisation and strategy and has had a few more weeks to work with the players than when, only three weeks ago, we were treated to a 30-minute first half glimpse of Artetaball, a game sadly tarnished by a late second half collapse and undeserved defeat. The late concession of a 1-0 lead and two points has become an unfortunate pattern in our last two games and is a frailty that has to be rectified swiftly. The bus stop would be an excellent place to start.

The hosts got off to a brisk start under Fat Frank but have stuttered recently, apart from their undeserved 2-1 win at the Grove. Since November they have lost at home to West Ham, Bournemouth and Southampton, drawn at home to Bournemouth and lost away to Everton and Newcastle. They are by no means invincible.

We are handicapped by Pierre Emerich Aubameyang’s suspension. His goals earlier this season have prevented us being in even deeper doo-doo than we are. The substitution of the hard-working but unproductive Lacazette against Sheffield United was clearly with this fixture in mind. Surely Laca’s luck must turn eventually? Chambers and Tierney remain long-term absentees though the latter is apparently back in light training. Kolasinac and Reiss-Nelson are both still side-lined by muscle strains and will not be available before the Barcodes game in mid-February.

I expect minimal change to Saturday’s starting line-up despite the short interval between games. Sokratis will probably replace Mustafi if the Greek has recovered from illness when assessed pre-match. Although Mustafi did little wrong against Sheffield United, his propensity to unexpected ‘brain-farts’ makes Sokratis the better bet. Hector was on the bench on Saturday and may regain his starting place from Ainsley Maitland-Niles though AMN has looked more and more impressive at RB under Mikel. Thus, I expect a probable starting 11 of Leno; Bellerin, Sokratis, Luiz, Saka; Torreira, Xhaka; Özil; Pepe, Lacazette, Martinelli.

The Holic pound, you ask? A classic 1-0 to the Arsenal is offered at 14-1 while a 1-0 win with Lacazette the scorer is a rather generous 50-1. Have it!

43 Drinks to “Bus stop, wet day. Please, share my umbrella.”

  1. 1
    Countryman100 says:

    Nice job Bath!

    Very much in the Guvna’s style.

  2. 2
    ATG says:

    Great preview Bath, looks like we are due a result at the bus stop in Fulham. We do however lack creativity in the middle as what we saw at home against Sheffield. Still this is going to be a more open encounter and hopefully MA8 has got them red hot again!

    COYG!

  3. 3
    OsakaMatt says:

    Fine preview, thanks Bath.
    A tough trip so soon after the
    Sheffield Utd game but Chelsea
    were away at Newcastle so it’s
    actually tougher for them.
    2-1 would be a fitting revenge
    for their robbery in December.

  4. 4
    TTG says:

    Bath,
    Thankyou for a top-class preview and we can only hope your prediction comes to fruition. It’s a difficult game to predict. Last year’s match was very unusual and as you say they mugged us a bit at our place just after Christmas. I think AMN will retain his place but otherwise your suggested team is spot-on although Arteta might start Eddie to add a surprise factor . Although all we get at the moment is draws that wouldn’t be a bad result if we can win the next three ( winnable ) games. Once we can start a really positive run confidence will build
    COYG

  5. 5
    Uplympian says:

    Excellent preview Bath.
    As TTG points out it’s a difficult one to predict. Their home form of late is woeful, we are overdue a result at the bus stop in fulham, we were mugged at our place a short time ago, so it all points to a…..big win for the rotund one 😉. More seriously I think we are quite capable of picking up 3 pts, they won’t have 10 men behind the ball allowing more space for us to exploit. I think MA8 will stick with AMN rather than Hector who seems well off the pace in his few appearances earlier in the season. Hopefully he is gaining fitness and a run at Bournemouth next week may be more appropriate to bring him back in. I going for the ever popular 2-1 win with “In the net” Lacazette to break his drought.

  6. 6
    bt8 says:

    Excellent preview, Bath. It is a bit of an oddity that we are playing the Chavs again so soon. They are coming off a disappointing loss at Newcastle and Fat Frank will want maximum macaroni from this one. Luiz played very well in the first game and I would go with your score line but Sideshow Bob to be the one to breach the Bridge.

  7. 7
    scruzgooner says:

    well in, baff.

    i hope to god eddie is on the bench again, to run at a tiring chelsea. and that ozil can regain just a bit of the fairy dust without sacrificing the graft.

    COYG!

  8. 8
    Pangloss says:

    Nothing to argue with in ybe preview; not the tone, not the underlying realism, not the destination of the Holic pound.

    COYG

  9. 9
    BtM says:

    Good stuff. a 1-0 win would be most welcome!

  10. 10
    North Bank Ned says:

    Excellent preview, Bath. I am with Upply and TTG in thinking that AMN will start, but otherwise not a word with which to disagree. Bellerin might get a few minutes off the bench, but this isn’t the game to start his comeback with a start.

    This would be an opportune moment, though, to get what would be just our seventh win of the season, and shake off this drawing habit. Only Liverpool, Man City and Wolves have lost fewer games than us so far this season, but only Watford, Bournemouth and Norwich have won fewer.

  11. 11
    North Bank Ned says:

    This video explores Guardiola’s tactical approach and how his team’s shape should shift as it attacks. Starting to see elements of it appearing in the way Arteta is getting us to play.

  12. 12
    Pangloss says:

    I see that Solskjaer is being told that his job is safe whatever the team do between now and the end of the season, at least, so says the Sun.

    Is it common to tell managers they are safe this early? If so, how often is it true?

    CCMUED COYG

  13. 13
    Pangloss says:

    I was also amused to see, on the BBC gossip page, several six-Man U players telling Ole Gunnar to be careful how he managed injured players’ returns to the squad, and the agent of something German bloke quoted as saying his guy wanted to come to the Premier League and would like to play for Liverpoo. German manager, German player, good team (breaks my heart to say so, but Facts! is Facts)- who’d a think it
    Anyone recognise any echoes here? God, British tabloid journalism is predictable!

  14. 14
    North Bank Ned says:

    Pangloss@12: The dreaded ‘chairman’s vote of confidence’ in a manager just before his sacking? We can only hope.

    @13: German agent, too. Timo Werner is represented by Karlheinz Forster.

  15. 15
  16. 16
    North Bank Ned says:

    Is Sanllehi is own man, or the Kroenkes’? And where does Edu, as technical director, fit in the recruitment hierarchy?

  17. 17
    bathgooner says:

    The respective roles of Raul and Edu are not entirely clear to an outsider. Perhaps Edu is responsible for finding the players we need. I’m not sure whether he was involved with the signing of Martinelli. If so. it’s a good start even if he only had a word to help seal the deal. Time will tell. This Guimaraes fella might be another coup if we can seal that deal.

    On the other hand Raul’s record is very patchy according to that analysis of his Barca cv. Blogs is right that he should be under the microscope.

  18. 18
    North Bank Ned says:

    Leno
    Bellerin, Mustafi, Luiz, Saka
    Torriera, Xhaka
    Pepe, Ozil, Martinelli
    Lacazette

    Tip of the hat to Bath for calling Bellerin in the preview.

  19. 19
    North Bank Ned says:

    Bench:
    Martinez, AMN, Holding, Guendouzi, Willock, Ceballos, Nketiah

  20. 20
    bt8 says:

    I will be looking closely to measure the quality of our youngsters against theirs. COYYG

  21. 21
    bt8 says:

    Guess that means I will be keeping my eye on Saka, Ned. The other youngsters are on the bench!

  22. 22
    North Bank Ned says:

    Hector, not Laca is named as captain. Not sure what to make of that, if anything. Bellerin was one of Emery’s five captains, along with Auba, Ozil, Laca and Xhaka.

    Apart from Matt Macey, everyone listed in the first team squad who is not ill, injured or out on loan is starting or on the bench today. And why is Saka still listed on the club site as an Academy not a first-team player?

  23. 23
    TTG says:

    Thanks for the articles Ned. Unusually for a Stillman article , I don’t find it particular persuasive and the first article doesn’t really change my opinion either.
    The decision to part with a manager is a difficult and regrettable one. Bath would have sacked him after Baku, I would have sacked him after Watford but others were more patient. Cynic would still have him at the club ! I’m far from convinced by Raul but at the same time he has taken over a massive and difficult job from the useless Gazidis and it takes a long time to turn a supertanker around.
    The thing that is worrying a lot of observers ( and it is touched on by Stillman) is whether he is too close to super-agents who are much more committed to their own financial interests than the fortunes of Arsenal. The Kurzawa deal seems a very dubious way of releasing some funds ( sell Kola , sign Kurzawa on a free) and simultaneously weakening the side. Can you really give a guy with his injury record a FIVE year contract? Whose interests does that serve? Edu is very close to Joorabchian who is Kurzawa’s agent and who brokered the Luiz deal . Should we – and Raul- smell a rat?
    I think we made headway in playing quality in the summer but have been massively hit by injuries . It will take at least two summer windows to clean out the stables given the difficulties of trading in the January window. The jury is very much out on Raul but we do need to see what a period working with a proper coach and with Edu in place for a season yields and the time to judge- unlesstgere is a disaster will be around October

  24. 24
    North Bank Ned says:

    Credit where credit is due, TTG. Bath posted the links to the articles about Sanllehi. Mine was the one to the YouTube video on Pep’s tactics.

  25. 25
    bt8 says:

    Fell victim to the trap of forgetting how young Martinelli is. Pepe is not too far behind but can’t really be considered a youngster considering his fee.

  26. 26
    North Bank Ned says:

    You raise a key point about super-agents. They are getting to be massively influential. There is no alignment of interest between their short-term financial incentive to have as high a churn of players at the top clubs as possible with the long-term interests of the clubs in developing their squads.

  27. 27
    North Bank Ned says:

    bt8b: By age, the team today lines up:

    27

    24 27 32 18

    23 27

    24 31 18

    28

    Bench: 27, 22, 24, 20, 20, 23, 20

  28. 28
    bt8 says:

    At least we know Sanhelli was not responsible for signing Mustafi. 😡

    Why he hasn’t replaced him I will never know. 🤯🤬🤯🤬🤬🤯🤬🤯

  29. 29
    TTG says:

    Bt8
    The main reason is that no one wants him and he doesn’t want to leave given the contract he has, one he will never manage to repeat anywhere. He is only ever linked with Turkish clubs and those links are bullshit 99% of the time. He has cost us hugely again tonight but unless we pay him off we won’t get rid of him.
    We are into damage limitation mode now tonight and presumably we will be without Luiz for the next three matches

  30. 30
    OsakaMatt says:

    A grim 1st half.
    I can only hope for some
    kind of backs to the wall
    miracle.

  31. 31
    TTG says:

    If Arsenal get anything from this game ( and they won’t sadly) it would rank as one of their great rescue missions. I feel very sorry for Arteta because idiots will start to bite into him when he has no new players to use, lots of injuries , low morale and a chaotic tactical situation when he took over . This is shaping up as the season from hell

  32. 32
    Countryman100 says:

    If it’s a professional foul TTG it’s a one match ban

  33. 33
    TTG says:

    C100
    Thanks I’ve no idea what the red card rules are . He may not have played on Monday anyway

  34. 34
    OsakaMatt says:

    YES!!!!

  35. 35
    OsakaMatt says:

    Fantastic effort to get a point
    from twice behind

    Happily (for both of us) you
    were wrong at @31 TTG
    🕺👍😁

  36. 36
    TTG says:

    Delighted for Arteta and the other lads . I get very pessimistic but even by my very pessimistic standards I couldn’t see us getting anything with ten men . It’s a great result in the circumstances . The spirit was great

  37. 37
    North Bank Ned says:

    That was a draw that felt like a victory. They fought to the very end.
    The away support was terrific. You could hear it here half way round the world.
    Amazingly, despite everything, we are only four points off fifth place.

  38. 38
    North Bank Ned says:

    Regulations for red-card suspensions in the Premiership are:
    1-game ban: ‘second-yellow’ red; professional foul.
    2-game ban: dissent
    3-game ban: violent conduct.
    All reds are reviewed by the league which has discretion to reduce or increase the number of games to be missed.

  39. 39
    OsakaMatt says:

    I must admit at 5.45AM with us
    1-0 down and 10 men I seriously
    considered returning to my warm
    bed. Expectations were low but we
    did superbly to come back twice
    and today looked so much better
    by 7AM. Except possibly for Mrs OM
    who got woken up early by some
    loud shouting from behind the
    living room settee.
    Looking forward to Bath’s match
    report 🙂

  40. 40
    BtM says:

    Brilliant comeback. Outstanding performance. That was a heavy defeat after the penalty under the previous Señor.

    Ned @ 27: Interesting. Project youth – Deja Vue all over again with a healthy sprinkling of academy graduates. 🙂 Add Saliba (19), extract Luiz (32).

  41. 41
    North Bank Ned says:

    One plus with Xhaka playing centre back is that it cuts out all those scything tackles he makes far too late chasing back in midfield. Must save at least a yellow a match.

  42. 42
    Gunnersaurus Stunt Double says:

    Cracking comeback. Twice.

    Well played everyone. (Except Mustafi, who played well only when he wasn’t making a horrible error that cost us a goal, a player on the pitch and the use of Luiz for our next game)

    Still, excellent spirit and I’m very proud of the club.

  43. 43
    ATG says:

    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>