Ideally speaking a League Cup (or Carabao Cup as it has been named in this incarnation) quarter final with Manchester City of the present era – with a squad stacked with two first elevens’ worth of top 4 PL teams — should have been a low-key but pleasant experience to look forward to, to see how the young gunners fare, to simply enjoy the good performances and moments of creative sparks without worrying too much about the result. Many of the first eleven players would also typically enjoy the match from the sidelines or their seats in Emirates box, and the conversations before and after the match will mostly be about the weekend league game to look forward to.
At least that’s how I remember experiencing the League Cup matches. Even the three (?) finals we lost with Arsène – unpleasant though they were, and especially in case of the loss against Birmingham unacceptable – didn’t bother me beyond the next few days. There was always some good football to look forward to in league and sometimes in Europe, and even though it could get a little tensed at the end there was always an assured top 4 finish league finish. My favourite League Cup memory is Flamini of all people scoring with a volley from outside the box for his double to sink the trophy-dodgers.
Those days surely look idyllic compared to the traumatizing run of performances and results we are going through now. Significant leadership transitions are always difficult, especially more so when such a transition is planned with short-sightedness. If anyone ever had any illusions about how difficult it will be to find ourselves back in the upper echelons of the league table, the last couple of months were a stark reminder that how challenging it is to consistently maintain high quality performance year in, year out while playing a football of signature style irrespective of the players.
A lot has been written – here and elsewhere – about how we find ourselves in the position we are in, and what can and should be done, and whether Mikel should be trusted for as long as it takes or should there be changes once a certain level of alarm has been reached, whether certain players should continue to be played, which types of players to be brought in the winter transfer window etc. I feel all opinions that can be expressed have been expressed, and the arc of our fortune in the coming days can trace so many different shapes through time that any form of absolute certainty about solutions – immediate or long-term, immediate and long-term – is problematic. Months — and probably years — of changes, trials-and-errors, adjustments big and small are to be lived through before we arrive back at the top table.
Given the inflexion point we are now at this season – a few more consecutive league losses and we will be dragged right into the relegation battle however unlikely the eventual possibility of that might be, a few consecutive wins on the other hand can quickly propel us to the top half of the table and bring a semblance of confidence back to what seems to be a rather fragile team now – this match presents a considerable dilemma to our under-pressure manager. If he chooses a strong team and yet loses will that further erode the confidence in league? If he chooses the starting eleven along the lines of the Europa league matches (who, let us remind ourselves, won all six of their matches and scoring a hatful of goals, albeit the quality of the Europa oppositions until now haven’t at all been comparable to the premier league) and the team gets overpowered will he be criticized harshly for throwing away chance of a trophy? We have already beaten two high quality teams in Liverpool and Leicester in the Carabao Cup this year on our way to the quarters, so he may want to carry that cup form forward. Given the top four this season is now nearly improbable (but of course not impossible) and top six too is highly unlikely, cup runs are essential to stand any chance of European football next season. Our opponents, star-studded though is their squad, has been noticeably underperforming in the league and Guardiola may choose to not risk any of his in-form players which can open up for us a higher chance of getting to the semis. Mikel in his short stint has already shown himself to be a highly capable cup manager with razor sharp tactics calibrated to the strengths and weaknesses of the opposition and willing to play on the counterattack, and more importantly to get his players to behave exactly the way he wants in those matches. I think Mikel will find this match an opportunity to not only keep us going in the League cup, but also to use a victory here as an inspiration to boost confidence and morale in the squad.
I myself would like to see players that haven’t been starting league matches given a chance here, but I think Mikel will be more circumspect and will use more of his senior players. But he will also mix in a few of the youngsters who have shown themselves to be capable of performing precisely to a plan in a counter-attacking set-up.
My predicted line-up in a 3-4-3 formation:
Leno
Mustafi – Gabriel – Mari
Hector – Dani – Joe – AMN
Reiss – Lacazette – Willian
I am hoping Balogun, ESR, Pépé, Saka, Eddie on the bench will provide necessary attacking variations when needed. If Chambers is doing well in the practice Mikel may want to play him in place of Gabriel, moving Mustafi in the middle and playing Calum as the right sided center back, but I doubt it. I would have actually liked to see Balogun is given a chance to start and impose himself on a defense which can be prone to mistakes and is willing to move higher, but on the other hand Laca finding a goal or two against City may just be the tonic he needs to get back to scoring goals in the league.
My prediction (hope?) is a minimal possession, rearguard action, counterattacking 2-1 victory. An early goal from Lacazette and a late goal from Balogun.
Enjoy the match!
From previous drinks
GSD – I don’t expect to get relegated at all but if the club/manager/players and to some extent the fans don’t treat the situation seriously, we might end up doing what Manchester United did in the 70s. What two time European Cup winners Nottm Forest did and what moneybags Champions League semi finalists Leeds did within a couple of years of that season.
I said recently there’s a danger we might sleepwalk into relegation and that’s why I’m going to talk about the possibility until we’re clear of it and I would hope the club isn’t just smugly sitting back thinking it can’t happen. Because things that can’t happen often do.
As far as Arteta goes, I don’t think we can keep him around for the future if we’re still where we are, or worse, by the time the Newcastle game comes around. If we were tenth and in no danger, fine. You can accept a shit season (again) if you think he’s the man, but not if your existence in the top league is in danger. Which it will be unless we win at least one of the next three games.
Thanks Dr F. It’s an interesting
preview with a stronger XI than
I’m expecting and a prediction that
I hope is spot on.
My own favourite League Cup
memory is beating Everton at
Highbury in the 80s – great night
that even got a mention in Fever Pitch.
If I was picking an XI tonight
Leno
Cedric Calum Mari Kola
Elneny AMN
Nelson ESR Martinelli
Laca
Like Dr F I don’t for a moment
think MA will pick that team.
Thanks Dr F. You nicely highlight Arteta’s selection conundrum. I’ve read a lot of fans dismissing this match as unimportant compared to our forthcoming PL matches which at the most hysterical stance, carry existential importance. I suspect Arteta sees it differently and at a personal level he will want to rise to the challenge of beating his mentor again.
I think Arteta will select a mixture of first team players, fringe players, talented youth and returning wounded and he will aim to win this game. I suspect Pep really wants to win the game and the trophy and will select a strong team. In our present funk we will have our work cut out, whoever is selected.
Thanks Dr F
I am struggling to remember a game that I’ve had less enthusiasm for than this one. It just seems a match that in our current situation, we could so do without. I hope that Balogun gets a look in tonight. Personally I think he has far more potential than Eddie and is a far better prospect.
Apart from that, just please, no injuries or stupid red cards.
Good thoughtful preview Dr F, pleasingly lacking in the seasonal bleating and whining very evident elsewhere amongst Arsenal’s high victim content fanbase.
For a low profile competition the League/Carabao Cup often produces entertaining games and I’m looking forward to watching tonight. It’s a competition that’s best used to give younger talent first team experience and, like you, I hope to see Balogun and ESR feature prominently.
Laca has missed sufficient chances to elevate the team into the top six already this season and I’d give him a miss tonight before he gives himself several more.
Enjoy the game.
As thoughtful a preview as we have come to expect from you, Dr F. You hit the selection dilemma precisely.
I would take a 2-1 win in a heartbeat. That scoreline is available at 18s, so would also be attractive to the ‘holics pound.
A very thoughtful preview Dr.F which is exactly what I would expect. I don’t disagree with any of the comments expressed above . Cynic’s threshold is a sensible one . Like the building in Monty Python which only stayed up if you believed it would, you can’t endure too many successive defeats because the team stop believing in the coach .
My engagement with a game I am doing the blog on has been so tenuous, I thought until this morning it was at the Etihad .
Realistically , we have little chance tonight. Citeh will have a stranglehold on possession and we lack the cutting edge ( especially without Auba) to catch them on the break . I hope for a positive, intelligent and competitive performance and some self-respect. I would pick an experienced defence and midfield and be more speculative in attack . Maybe start with Pepe- Martinelli- Saka with Balogun and Nelson on the bench.
Dark times in almost every way . Let’s hope we see some shards of light
Thanks Dr.F for another thoughtful review. My only wish is that whichever team is selected puts up a good, fighting performance and hopefully a 2-1 result will materialize.
It is not seasonal bleating and whining, BtM, it is just concern for the club we all love.
Preview not review
Congratulations, Dr F, on an artistic and courageous preview; you deploy your mental resources to excellent effect as always. I hope whatever team our manager selects is able to deliver your predicted result.
COYG
I would do what we used to do more of and play players with very little chance of playing in the league in this.
So for me that means Willian and Pepe both play and I’d write them off for the next three league matches. Also Bellerin.
Stick those three in with the kids and if we lose, so be it.
Thanks everyone for the kind comments.
I have a hunch — and I have no logical reasoning to support it except that our frontline in league have lacked a bit (a lot?) of intensity in their press and attacking the space in the final third, Gabi brings both and may just find his enthusiasm to be infectious — that Mikel will start Gabi in the weekend, in front of Saka in a 3-4-3, with KT-Saka-Gabi on the left, Auba down the middle, and Willian on the right to prove himself against his old club which just might spark a performance.
A victory tonight can really help to bring some confidence back into the squad. Arsène’s old saying about a football team “climbs up by the stairs and comes down by the lift” never sounded more accurate…
Counterattacking and AMN masterclass, the same formula we used to defeat City and other big clubs earlier on. Thanks for the preview Doctor F.
Far from assured it will work this time mind you, but surely worth a try. Surely. Not sure if if makes it more effective to say surely twice though.
Cheers Doc. As others have said, you nailed the choice facing Arteta tonight.
Also, thanks to OM for the last preview. It was excellent and remiss of me not to say so in the last bar.
I’m keen to watch us tonight. Anything could happen and I won’t care if we lose. Might we play with a little bit the handbrake off?
Or just be crap again? 😅
Review not preview.
I blame ksn for that one!
Cynic @1
I am not sure a win in the next three is absolutely essential to us avoiding relegation. Although generally I agree with your points.
I think we can take the rubbish performances and results seriously without equating that to expected relegation. I don’t think we need bring in the spectre of relegation to acknowledge that we are in a seriously bad patch that cannot be approached with complacency.
However, I hope that we get a few wins under our belts soon and this relegation discussion slides by the wayside. So we can focus on the important fact that we are, in so many ways, miles from where we want to be.
Ksn @10.
I do not wish to put any words or thoughts into BtM’s mouth or yours.
I will say that BtM referenced the ‘bleating’ as happening elsewhere- not in this bar. And there are many people who are making objections far less reasonably than you are. I do not think anyone could defend some of the rubbish that people claiming to be fans spew on other forums.
And I think all of the points that have been made in this bar about concern for our alarming position have been well made.
None of us are happy about the current situation. It is great to be in a bar where we can discuss that without all losing our shit or splitting up into factions.
Drinks for everyone. Cava on the bar. I’d love it to be Champagne, but in this economy…
Come back Lars!
Cheers Doc!
Big up Ken Friar. Tells it like it is for me.
Matt at #3 I was at both legs of that Triumph!
Final against Luton was pretty shit though.
Finished work for 2020 today. Got 20 cases of Red Stripe (for an absolute bargain at £160) and banging into the first one.
Ave it
COME ON YOU ARSENAL!
Leno, Mustafi, Gabriel, Kolasinac, Maitland-Niles, Elneny, Ceballos, Cedric, Willock, Lacazette, Martinelli
Subs: Leno, Tierney, Mari, Smith Rowe, Pepe, Balogun, Nketiah
Gabi starts!
Where’s the width?
Actually is Runarsson in goal.
Another good read Dr F. You managed to get 7 starters right – a pretty good effort. I suspect AMN will be left wing back & Cedric on the right. Looking forward to see Gabi again – hoping he can inject some much needed pace & magic back into our forward play.
Let’s stop the rot this evening – it’s never too early.
Where’s the width?
Never mind the width, feel the quality.
As the actress said to the bishop.
Quite like that team.
Probably asking for trouble having chilli, chips and beer on top of this game, but I don’t have a clean saucepan for the rice and too lazy to wash up twice in an evening.
Cynic @ 31 GET A MAC
That was Trumpian upper case by the way. *winking emoji*
We are behind after just two minutes. Nothing new there.
Lovely preview DrF. Have not watched one minute of preview, switched on at kick off, one nil down, Mustafi motionless.
Terrible start oh well
Speechless with that attempt at defending. It’s just an utter shambles.
An absolute excuse of a goalkeeper.
Mustafi staring at the cross as if it’s a cloud shaped like a penis.
Also thought I’d take the beer down a notch with a dash of lemonade.
And I put Coke in it by mistake
🙁
City absolutely hogging possession and look so assured in their passing. We have mis passed a few times already. Quality tells.
I can’t see how that goal is the keeper’s fault. He’s entitled to think the centre half (Mustafi) will deal with it.
Terrible passing at this level
Martinez would have saved it 😉
Runarsson is so poor at distribution; probably very nervous on the big stage.
I am normally a calm, glass half full kind of guy. But fuck me this is dross.
Elneny fouls in such a dangerous place. Lucky to escape.
I know it’s a makeshift team in many ways but if this is the best they can come up with, in a Cup quarter final, with their manager in need of a win to take the pressure off his job, then fuck them.
I’ve had enough of the shower, I’m off to watch a creaky old horror film. Something RKO perhaps.
Don’t have nightmares, people.
Mustafi is another idiot, pulling a City player back in front of the ref and gets a needless yellow card. It has been one sided so far.
We are watching a horror movie, Cynic.
We’ve certainly acquired a world class collection of muppets. I may not be able to watch much more of this garbage.
Balogun is never in a million years going to sign up to join this circus.
Laca!!!!
Get the fuck in, Arteta needs to sict the fuck down and stop instructing.
All Martinelli. Good finish by Laca!
Good work Martinelli. Nice header Laca. Pearls amongst swine.
Two great crosses from Martinelli. Laca heads in for once. All against the run of play but who cares.
Suddenly we’re pressing.
Martinelli does look a little tired which is understandable given he is coming back from a major injury and has had very little playing time but he has already made a difference.
Much better from us and what a save by Runarrson
Brilliant, quite brilliant save from Runarsson
Fantastic save from very close range by our goalie.
Fair way behind on my stream but take some of that back. Great save!
Martinelli was badly caught and I hope it is not another serious injury for the talented youngster. Their goalie was totally out of control. Just when we needed Martinelli.
Gabby in real pain here. Let’s hope all’s well
He is back on field, so should be ok.
We go into half time 1-1 and Martinelli will get some time to recover.
Entertaining first half as I expected. Twatterverse shittin’ itself. Also expected.
A decent recovery and we deserve to go in at least level. Two great crosses from Gabby result in the goal. 45 mins is enough for him. No need to take any risks.
Balogun time.
all to play for, COYGS!
Gabby off. Shouldn’t have come back. Great return though. I love Gabby.
Go on Pepe!
Oh that’s laughable.
Take it back.
CUNT
That’s the worst goalkeeping error since Lehman tried Cryuff turn against Fulham about ten years ago.
Fucking pathetic cunt.
Well that’s that
He’s offside there
ESR shows what a man with an eye for a pass can do for a forward. I hope Arteta notices.
I guess me and Runarrson both
wish Leno had started.
We were shit, Fair scoreline.
Fucking bantz club
I’ve seen nothing of the match, and I haven’t read the drinks since half-time.
That simply wasn’t good enough. I wish I knew what should be done to improve matters. Even more, I wish someone in authority at the club knew.
Has anyone seen my shit? I seem to have mislaid it. Oooh look! There are my toys lying on the floor all around my pram.
We are buggered even more if anything happens to Leno and I mean buggered! Fucked in fact!
Pangloss,
Bad start, got ourselves back in
it and then threw it away again
soon after half-time with a keeper
howler and an offside goal. No
VAR to save us so game over from
there.
I only hope Martinelli is ok and he will be ok to play the next game.
Plus points: Laca finally scored from open play. Martinelli gave the attack some oomph. Balogun and ESR both showed flashes of promise. Um. Er. That is about it.
That said, 4-1 probably flatters them. We were in the game until Runarsson’s howler. Their third was offside (VAR would have overturned it) and coming so soon after the second made it game over.
Runarssson is a worry. One top-class goal-saving block, but I thought he should have gone for the ball with their first and fourth goals. He won’t want to be reminded about their second.
.
It gets worse and worse. I’m genuinely struggling to see where we actually go from here? We continue to pay the price for having clowns in charge off the pitch. I don’t believe for one second that anyone has any kind of plan? Long term, or short?
Desperate desperate times.
Barring the first half spell just before and for the remainder of the half after our equaliser, that was truly awful. Martinelli, ESR and to a lesser extent Willock were the only bright spots unless you count keeping 11 men on the field for 90 minutes and Laca finding the net.
We have built up a world class collection of muppets and the decline of this club continues. Years of terrible executive decisions have taken us to this point and I fear that the task is too great for a rookie coach no matter his ability to improve Sterling with one-to-one coaching and talk a good game in the presser. I hope he succeeds but he needs to turn things around pronto if he is going to keep his job.
that’s a fair summary Ned.
I have to congratulate Arteta for his mental strength. Impressive.
Martinelli is also a worry, although for other reasons. I wouldn’t be surprised if we lean he has a hairline fracture.
learn, not lean
Ned, Steve, Baff. All good posts.
Fell asleep watching Ray Milland in The Uninvited and saw the goals post match when I woke up and switched off the film.
Runarsson is what he is. A £1.5m reserve keeper. On a four year deal.
Huge ricket on the second goal, I thought he was at fault for the third as well, dashing off his line and making Foden’s mind up for him. Came out, went down and begged to be chipped. So he was.
Hopefully Martinelli is just bruised.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>