From 2016 to 2021, our next opponent’s fortunes largely appeared to rise, albeit with a very significant blip costing two coaches their jobs. Through generous refereeing at both ends of the pitch Leicester City won their first ever top-flight title in 2015-16 (but do remember the widely recycled anecdote that the Marshdwellers ‘pushed them all the way’ – until the Arsenal nipped into second place! – souvenir DVD’s are still on sale). Leicester’s hubris was perhaps defined by their rat-faced iconic striker’s decision not to move to the Arsenal but rather to stay with the Foxes.
After a season or two’s reversion to their mean, their fortunes revived and as ours declined we seemed to be swimming in the same pond but in different directions. After two consecutive seasons of appearing nailed on for a top four finish only to fall out in the dying embers of both seasons, last year’s FA Cup victory (another first), seemed to be confirmation that, under Rodgers, they were establishing themselves as genuine members of the so-called ‘top six’ at the expense of…you know who. This was further emphasised by widespread advice to their playmaker, Maddison, when he was identified as a potential Arsenal target last summer, that he was at the ‘better club’ and he would be damaging his career if he moved to the Arsenal. How things seem to have changed. And a bullet dodged!
Our overall record against Leicester City since the first match between Leicester Fosse and Woolwich Arsenal in League Division 2 on 7 January 1895 ended in a 3-1 defeat is 69 wins, 45 draws and 33 defeats. Home games in the Premier League distil those numbers to 12 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat but that defeat and one of those draws occurred in the last two matches at TNHOF in October 2020 (0-1) and July 2020 (1-1). Despite those recent aberrations, we should therefore expect an Arsenal victory and a further three points on our quest for a top 4 finish. Frankly, if we can’t take 3 points from this match, top 4 will probably prove to be out of this team’s reach.
After a decent start Leicester have had a poor season and dropped from 9th to 12th whilst Vardy was out injured though they have staged a recent mini revival with 4 wins on the spin and three clean sheets. It has been suggested that Rodgers has tightened up a hitherto leaky defence at the expense of midfield creativity (sounds familiar, eh?) and they are happy to sit back, soak up pressure, score on a breakaway and steal wins.
It appears that after lasting only 60 minutes against Leeds, on his return from injury, Steptoe Senior Mark II is reported as being out for the foreseeable future with an ankle problem. At the back they have also missed the experience, organisation and black arts of ex Manc Jonny Evans who remains a long-term absentee. The return of promising young defender Fofana has also been aborted by Covid-19.
Rodgers tends to transition between a back 3 and back 4 with either of the big lumps Ndidi or Chowdury the midfielder who drops back in. Albrighton works his socks off all the way up and down the right side, interchanging with the right wing back and scored a peach against Rennes – the thinking man’s James Milner, perchance? When Leicester play three at the back their two rampaging wing backs, Justin on the right and Thomas on the left tend to play well forward and this may suit our wide men seeking space on the flanks.
At centre back, they have the big Turk Söyüncö who has had a pretty shaky season and has looked less assured without Evans alongside him. His regular partner seems to be Amartey, another big unit. There will be little point slinging high balls in towards our diminutive or even absent centre forward but rapid footwork and swift interplay may prove their undoing. Rennes and Leeds both made chances by carving open a relatively slow Leicester back line and were very unfortunate not to score. Schmeichel does make rather a lot of excellent last ditch saves and like his father before him, is worth a good number of points per season. He will just have to be beaten on Sunday. Moreover, this season the Foxes have been one of the two worst teams in the Premiership at defending set pieces – along with Leeds. Hopefully our set piece guru will be on the case.
When Vardy returned from injury Leicester reverted to playing the long ball over the top for him to chase from his position on the shoulder of the last defender – a strategy that has been so productive for them over recent years. Even in his absence, their recent safety-first approach has tended to stick with that option with Daka unsuccessfully trying to emulate the Vardy role against Rennes this week. Against their last two opponents they have also had Iheanacho and Lookman try to play that role, the former in somewhat slower motion. I trust that our centre backs have been forewarned.
Nonetheless, they do have creativity in their team with Barnes on the left. His mazy run created Leicester’s opener against Rennes after they had clearly been second best for the first quarter of that match – as indeed they have been in several of their recent wins. Further creativity comes from their midfield in the form of Tielemans, Maddison and Dewsbury Hall (was Dewsbury Hall used to film Downton Abbey?) though recently the latter two have been an either/or and Rodgers seems to trust the latter more. As Maddison merely came on as a late sub against Rennes on Thursday, I expect him rather than Stately Home to start against us on Sunday.
Leicester have just notched up 3 Premier League wins in a row for the first time since October when Rodgers was being touted as a possible replacement at Manure. More recently the gutter press has been speculating on his position at Leicester. However, despite their recent mini-revival they still sit only twelfth, 12 points outside a European place so winning the UEFA Conference Intertoto Freight Rover Trophy looks like their best hope (Ha!) of being in Europe next season. It would be no surprise if their two ‘Round of 16’ ties against Rennes have taken on more importance than their league position as a route into Europe next season. For a change, we are the team that has had the luxury of a full seven days break with time to concentrate exclusively on our next opponent on the training ground. We must take advantage of that.
Before any of this weekend’s matches have been played, we sit in 4th place on 48 points, 8 points behind and with two games in hand on the repellent west London accessories to the war criminals who have invaded Ukraine. Hopefully the consequences of sequestration of Abramovich’s assets will rattle those vermin and open up third place to the chasing pack. We currently sit in a very favourable position in that pack with points and games in hand on the others but need to maintain our recent form and attacking brio and at the very least not lose our games against those teams. If we can do that, a top four position is a distinct possibility but clearly there’s much work to be done yet and many a slip etc.
Along with the Arsenal’s recent good form we have seen the emergence of a clear first choice ‘twelve’ playing in a flexible 4-3-3 formation with the only regular question being which of Martinelli or Smith-Rowe starts on the left. The latter is available after his bout of Covid-19 according to MA8’s pre-match press conference though I expect him to start on the bench. On the other hand, Tomiyasu our first choice right back, is again unlikely to figure due to a persistent calf problem. Hopefully, his deputy Cédric will perform as ably as he has done hitherto in Tomiyasu’s absence.
Hence, I expect a starting eleven of:
Ramsdale
Cédric, White, Gabriel, Tierney
Ødegaard, Partey, Xhaka
Saka, Lacazette, Martinelli.
I hope that we are more committed than Leicester in this game, have more stamina and can be more assured defensively than we were against Watford. If we are all of these, I expect a 2-0 victory.
The Holic Pound
In part as a result of Merse’s observations, here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/60667575
but principally because there is currently a far, far better thing to do with our cash, the Holic ‘Pound’ is going here:
https://donate.savethechildren.net/campaigns/arsenalukraineappeal
As the Guvna once confessed, it’s a bit more than a pound.
Enjoy the game, Holics.
And, here’s a nice field with no foxes in it.
well in baff. great use of the holic pound, really. slava ukraini!
i am glad vardy isn’t going to play, i hate his rat-faced mug celebrating after a goal against us. and our last time this season to see tielemans in the shop window…may he have a “good enough” game that highlights what we like about him without it hurting us sunday.
i wonder that esr might start, just so we have his acumen in concert with mø from the start. then bring gabigol for the last half hour or so to run justin or thomas off their feet.
COYG!
Excellent. Thank you and as you say, may we be more fully committed than them. If so the points should be ours. More easily said than done, I know, but then who has Saka and ESR?
Good stuff Bath. The 2-0 away win earlier in the season was a highly enjoyable away day, with probably the high point being a remarkable save by Ramsdale from a Maddison free kick just before half time in front of the the travelling faithful. That apart, we were the better team in the first half, but Leicester the better in the second. I anticipate a tight game.
Thanks, bath, for a fine preview and a nice idea for the Holic pound.
Barnes is the obvious threat – not forgetting Tielemans – and Messrs Soares and White are going to have to work well together keep him at bay. Good to see Ratman will be otherwise engaged.
Simply top-drawer, Bath. Well done.
Albrighton as the thinking man’s James Milner doesn’t bear thinking about.
Thanks Bath!
Our first half against Leicester in the reverse fixture was excellent and we killed the game in the first 20 minutes and could have had more than two. This side was just coming into its now recognizable shape by that game and, in retrospect of course, it was a good signpost of things to come.
Like Trev, I won’t miss Ratman and his oddly accurate though always completely accidental elbows. Hopefully, Maddison won’t choose today to show he’s a good player on the break and it’ll be 3-1 to the men in the red shirts and white shorts. COYGS!
They had to clear the snow off the pitch for that first game in 1895. We were two down after 11 minutes and only got a consolation goal just before the final whistle.
Nice.
I’m up for less caution and a demonstrative 3-0 neutering of the sly foxes and their wily manager.
UTA,
Cheers baff! Great work on the ‘holic pound.
No Vardy is good for us, so let’s party with Partey.
We have to keep the focus, they will be no pushovers.
Premier League disqualifies Abramovich as director of Chelsea.
The absolute right thing to do.
Not sure how the Brighton goalkeeper didn’t get a red card for the challenge on Dias for the Liverpool goal.
Matt @11: incompetence?
bt8@10: Better late than never, I suppose.
The other eye-opening thing to emerge from the freeze of Abramovich’s assets is that it costs at least £500,000 to stage a PL home game. Chelsea is now discussing with the UK government raising that cap, saying it is too low.
OM@11: Studs down, not from behind and he doesn’t play for Arsenal.
@12 😂😂
@13 the government agreed and raised it to 900k Ned.
Still think Sanchez should have gone but it was quite handy as it happens – he’s in my Fantasy League team
Once again Matt we see the corrupting influence of FFL. Of course that wasn’t a red card. 😉
mancs up v scum. scum look a disaster. a draw and red cards please.
@17 also many painful groin injuries.
VAR dis not even check the karate kick from Dalot, we all know what would happen to one of ours 🤬
I am looking for a draw here. Come on Spurs for this game only.
Come on Maguire, you can do it, one more pls
An excellent preview Bath with a detailed look at our friends from the East Midlands . We tend to do better away from home against them . They are a counter-attacking side and turned us over last season when Steptoe emerged as a sub. He’d equalised the season before when Kavanagh ( who forms part of the Chuckle Brothers duo with Tierney) red carded Nketiah .
We have a huge incentive to push on and take three points as storm clouds gather at the Bus Stop and our top four rivals look in dubious shape . I think we will take a 2-1 victory . The starting eleven is predictable but I think ESR will emerge from the bench to win it for us .
Sounds like we need to be watching out for Harvey Barnes.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/mar/12/revitalised-leicester-reaping-rewards-after-holding-with-brendan-rodgers
Wonderfully written preview Bath! Every word, and image, is perfect! Bravo!
I think your starting eleven is likeliest, but won’t be surprised if Mikel decides to vary the line-ups a bit given that we plan again on Wednesday and then on Saturday. Or maybe play the full strength against Leicester and Villa and against Liverpool play a tighter more counter-attacking team while giving breaks to one of Saka or Ødegaard. Tavares too can get a chance tomorrow with Tierney coming back for the Liverpool match.
Enjoy the match everyone!
Cheers Baff!
Arsenal: Ramsdale, Cedric, White, Gabriel, Tierney, Partey, Xhaka, Odegaard, X, Saka, Lacazette
Subs: Leno, Holding, Tavares, Swanson, Lokonga, Elneny, Pepe, Smith Rowe, Nketiah
presuming X = Martinelli
Arsenal: Ramsdale, Cedric, White, Gabriel, Tierney, Partey, Xhaka, Odegaard, Martinelli, Saka, Lacazette
Subs: Leno, Holding, Tavares, Swanson, Lokonga, Elneny, Pepe, Smith Rowe, Nketiah
Leicester: Schmeichel, Ricardo, Amartey, Soyuncu, Thomas, Maddison, Mendy, Dewsbury-Hall, Albrighton, Barnes, Iheanacho
Subs: Jakupovic, Vestergaard, Justin, Choudhury, Ndidi, Tielemans, Perez, Lookman,
Our XI pretty much as expected, a bit surprised to see Tielemans and Ndidi both on the bench for them.
COYGS!
One report I saw said something to the effect that Ndidi and Tielemans are being rested for Leicester’s Euro Conference clash of titans on Thursday. I hope the whole team is focused on that game then.
Thomas!
Tight game and great to get the early goal to twang Rogers plan
Nearly another, off the post for Thomas
Martinelli is frustrating till now, delays too much
Iheanacho arguing about a booking he was lucky to get away with
We’re passing well today
Great save from Aaron.
Bit of pressure from Leicester now, we’re just hoofing it away too much and giving it
back to them. Hope it’s a cunning plan.
Thanks fellas.
A tight game but a deserved lead. Still a bit of work to be done. Martinelli making a lot of por decisions. I expect to see ESR before too long,
Calm penalty from Laca after a good spot from VAR.
I think the yellow for the handball is right under the new rule.
2-0 will hopefully calm the nerves a bit.
Schmeichel was a dick but anyway he got to pick the ball
out the net.
Thomas has had another very good game
Thomas was our MOTM I think. Odegaard superb as well
Well done Ramsdale and co for the clean sheet, get in, COYG
Here we go !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
😃
Wouldn’t argue with either of them for MOTM KS.
Defence played well and we turned a tricky game into a fairly routine win 2nd half.
Great win!
6 points gained on Spurs can’t be bad. Get in.
It could have been a ‘blip’ game but safely navigated in the end. Odegaard by a nose over Partey for MOTM.
Great performance. Job done. Big win.
Partey and Ødegaard are looking as good a blend as strawberries and cream. So silky!
Onward.
That’s the sort of Arsenal I want to see. Fast tempo passing, decent defending, a keeper who can be relied on when needed and no playground shithousery to embarrass me. Or themselves.
Thanks Bath! Excellent preview! Sorry for beeing late.
🙂
I think the whole team also excelled today.
Well done!
COYG
Playground shithousery bad. Ben White good. 👍
Excellent if blatantly self-assisted half century, Las. They all count, unless VAR becomes involved.
Well in for the half-ton, Las.
I am greatly pleased for Laca that he has scored his 200th career goal. Now that monkey is off his shoulder, I hope he can go on a goalscoring spree.
One of the most enjoyable minutes of that game was the look of disbelief on Brendan Rodgers face after Ramsdale pulled off that spectacular one-handed save.
I don’t think any player scored less than a 7 which is heartening . Artetaball is emerging as a compelling concept and the momentum at Arsenal is building steadily . Great to see
It really demands giving credit to the entire team for the clean sheet, and not least of all to Tierney for that last minute back post clearance in the second half. White saved another almost certain goal by Maddison a few minutes before (or after).
bt8 @52 🙂
Did you hear about Saka? He was badly limping before taken down and it looked somewhat serious.
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