And so to Villa Park for Saturday’s early ebening game (17:30 kick-off) against Unai Emery’s Villans.
Villa celebrates its 150th anniversary this year. Yet, our first trip to Villa Park, then Aston Park, was a mere 120 years ago, on Boxing Day, 1904, during our first season in the old First Division. I had expected to turn up a cup encounter in Victorian times, but no.
Although we were the first southern side to play in the First Division, none of our side that day was born south of Liverpool, and eight were of the Scottish persuasion. The press billed the encounter as the match of the day. Despite bitter cold, it attracted a full house of 40,000, three times the average attendance at a Division One game that season.
Previewing the match, the Morning Leader observed that ‘there is a dash of romance, a precocity of youth, about the Arsenal which cannot fail to magnetise the people’. Thus, it ever was.
Yet, having beaten Villa 1-0 at the Manor Ground, Plumstead, in early October, there was to be no festive cheer in Brum. We were 1-0 down within ten minutes. ‘Following an exciting scrimmage in front of goal [Charlie] Satterthwaite equalised with a pretty screw shot’, The Sportsman reported, but after that, we were indebted to Jimmy Ashcroft, arguably the first in the line of our truly distinguished goalkeepers, for keeping the final score down to 3-1.
Our defence, which had conceded just 13 goals in its previous 16 games, was missing its lynchpin, centre-half Percy Sands, rested for the following day’s game in Nottingham and the one the day after in Sheffield. We played five league games between Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve; workload? Pah!
A final historical note: like the home of our opponents last week (the one Molly knew!), Villa’s was built on what had been the grounds of a large house that had become a Victorian amusement park. Aston Park was an oddly ovaloid venue to accommodate a steeply banked cement cycling track that ran through the terraces behind each goal. The track lasted until the redevelopment of the ground as Villa Park after the First World War to the designs of Archibald Leitch, whose work arguably reached its apogee with Highbury.
The opposition
Unai Emery, formerly of this parish, has got Villa back into Europe and, this season, the Champions League, having finished fourth in the PL last term. CL football may come to weigh on their PL performances, but that will not be a factor this early in the season.
UEFA’s financial rules, and the PL’s, have influenced Villa’s summer transfer business. The club sold a couple of youngsters that Emery would have preferred to keep — Tim Iroegbunam to Everton and Omari Kellyman to Chelsea. Nonetheless, so far, Villa has spent 30 million euros more than it has reaped from sales.
The headline departures were Moussa Diaby to Al-Ittihad and Douglas Luiz to Juventus for a combined 111.5 million euros. Those sales funded the arrivals of the burly midfielder Amadou Onana from Everton and combative Dutch left-back Ian Maatsen from Chelsea for a combined 103.85 million euros.
Far less expensively, Jaden Philogene has been re-signed from Hull and will compete with Leon Bailey for the right-wing berth. Sam Iling-Junior has arrived from Juventus and will do the same with the similarly aged and just as promising Morgan Rogers and Jacob Ramsey on the left. Philogene, Illing-Junior, Rogers and Ramsey are all in their early 20s, which indicates Villa’s intent to lower the average age of a side that was the seventh oldest in the league last season. Yet the Basque’s bargain buy may be 30-year-old Ross Barkley, picked up from relegated Luton Town for 5.9 million euros.
In their 2-1 opening-weekend win at West Ham last Saturday, Villa looked like a team rebuilding and yet to settle in their new faces. Nonetheless, we can expect to see the familiar one of Emilio Martinez between the sticks, fresh from signing a new long-term contract. Defender Tyrone Mings remains a long-term injury absentee, and another of our old boys, Calum Chambers, has joined Cardiff on a free. So, a back four of Matty Cash, Pau Torres, Ezri Konsa and either Lucas Digne or new boy Maatsen is likely. Maatsen’s arrival blocked the path of another of our alums, Lino Sousa; the 19-year-old has been sent on loan to Bristol Rovers.
Villa lined up in a 4-2-3-1 against the Hammers with Onana and Youri Tielemans as a double pivot behind Bailey, skipper John McGinn and Rogers. Last season, Emery tended to go with a compressed 4-4-1-1 at home to counter teams that like to invert a full-back to create a box of four to make an overload in midfield. I expect him to do the same again or even use a 4-1-4-1 to provide further insurance against Mikel Arteta’s inventiveness.
Emery has plenty of midfield options off the bench in Barkley, Ramsey, Philogene, Enzo Barrenechea and Emi Buendia, the Argentine international who missed last season with injury, but Boubacar Kamara remains a long-term injury absentee.
Ollie Watkins provides the firepower up front for a side that likes to break on the counter. The 20-year-old Colombia striker Jhon Duran is his understudy, with Cameron Archer sold to Southampton. Now that Chelsea has dashed Emery’s hopes of bringing in Joao Felix from Atletico Madrid and, to rub it in, has offered Villa Raheem Sterling, there are reports that another of our old boys, Donyell Malen, is in Emery’s sights.
The Arsenal
Emery has lost only one of the seven games he has managed against us for Villa, Villareal and PSG. That was our 4-2 win at Villa Park two seasons ago when we scored two in added time (the first a Martinez og, you may remember). His head-to-head record against Arteta is Won 3, Drawn 1, Lost 1.
Our 2-0 win against Wolves last weekend was more run-of-the-mill than rousing but resulted in a clean sheet and three points. With no fresh reports of injuries — Toni and KT3 remain off games, and Vieira is iffy (in so many ways) — the only change from last week’s starting XI may be at left-back.
Last season, Bailey stretched Zinchenko in both games, and two of Villa’s three goals came from that side. I had pencilled in Jurrien Timber for Zinchenko, but in his pre-match press conference, Arteta threw some doubt on the Dutchman’s readiness to start. Riccardo Calafiori, Myles Lewis-Skelly and Jacob Kiwior are possible alternatives, but more likely from the bench. Calafiori may also be needed elsewhere if Declan Rice’s cramps return. Thus:
Raya
White, Saliba, Gabriel, Zinchenko
Partey, Ødegaard, Rice
Saka, Havertz, Martinelli
It seems ridiculous to say this in only the second week of the season, but every game is a must-win from here on in. Villa did the double over us last season. We failed to score in either game, despite an xG of 3.2, and the April defeat at the Ems did for our title bid.
Saturday’s will be a tough battle: Villa are a good team with a top coach. It may come down to who wins the tactical battle in midfield, which could turn on Arteta working out how to stop Villa’s two tight blocks of four stifling Martin Ødegaard’s creativity as they did last season. Putting the ball in their net would help, too.
There are scores to be settled, demons to be vanquished and, most importantly, three points to be secured. Predictions of this being a high-scoring game are off the mark, methinks; 1-0 to the Arsenal has a reassuring ring.
Enjoy the game ‘holics, near and far.
Nice preview, Ned. As usual, I finish the article with my ignorance if the opposition significantly reduced.
Despite what Arteta says, I would be very surprised were Timber, or at a push Calafiori, not to start ahead of Zinchenko in an away game against a side which took 6 points off us last season. Everyone knows that Zinchenko is the weak link against tricky wing play. At the same time, if Timber is not fit enough now, a year after his injury and following a summer with no international football, to start a PL game, then when will he be? Any points gained tomorrow would represent an improvement on last season and on such small margins may depend our ability to go the distance this time around.
Good stuff Ned. Little to disagree with throughout the preview, certainly not the last sentence of the prepenultimate paragraph.
C100@82 in the previous bar – I don’t believe any senior employee of the Arsenal is incompetent and I would support Edu’s (and Arteta’s) decisions to the last breath in my body even if I disagree with them. My granny would make a lousy Sporting Director.
COYG
A fine preview Ned. Villa gave us considerable difficulty last year both home and away. I’ll be heading for England’s second city and one of my favourite grounds. The game two years ago, when Emi Martinez headed the ball into his own net to put us in front, gave me great pleasure.
Pangloss @2 – many thanks for the clarification.
Top preview with wisdom abounding in every assertion. I hope we don’t ignore Ned’s counsel in the penultimate and ante-penultimate paragraphs, to be sure. Thanks as ever for your historical context too, Ned. Most people probably assumed that Villa Park was christened as such from the off. Three points please, as the gentleman called for already.
Excellent preview Ned, great historical perspective . I always enjoy visiting Villa Park. It has a unique atmosphere and I’ve never seen us lose there , though not all of the games were against Villa .
We did lose last season, most unfairly , in a game that arguably more than the game at the Emirates , cost us the title. Jesus fouled for a penalty and Havertz denied a late equaliser were decisions made by last week’s unimpressive official Jarrod Gillett.I agree with CER that we’d be mad to start Zinchenko . I think it might be Calafiori who takes the left back slot . I don’t think he has joined to be a back-up centre back .
Very tough start to the season. I think a draw would be a decent result but we are capable of winning there
Safe travel to the Countrymen ! Hopefully a happy return with three points
Ornstein says Fabio Vieira is off on loan to Porto.
https://x.com/david_ornstein/status/1827018660747391320?s=61&t=cVFjCyGkt4y-Ne45LtfqkQ
Thanks for an enjoyable and informative preview, Ned. This match will undoubtedly test our mettle. We are capable of winning, but will the ball bounce in our favour, as it didn’t in either of our contests with the Villans last season. I expect a tight game and 1-0 to the Arsenal would be delightful! I too expect either Callafiori or Timber to start at ‘left back’ and will be very disappointed if last season’s lessons about Zinchenko in this contest have not been learnt and correctively actioned. Surely that’s a non-negotiable?
Meanwhile, I am off to the Cottage tomorrow afternoon to cast an eye over ESR who was reported to have started well last week at the Old Toilet but to have faded badly after 30 minutes and look forward also to seeing Fulham’s other Arsenal alumni Leno and Iwobi. Two years of rust in the joints and muscle wasting take their toll I expect but it would be very nice if ESR could recover the verve he brought to the Arsenal first team in 2020.
Cheers Ned! Tough one tomorrow. I will not be able to watch it, which might save me some stress.
I’ll go for 2-0 though, with a classic very late second goal while Martinez is stranded up front shithousing his way when Villa have a corner.
Excellent informative and enjoyable preview, Ned. Last season’s games against Villa were frustrating in the extreme. The first because of woeful refereeing and the second because of the Arsenal’s inability to put the game to bed in the first half despite overwhelming superiority and some splendid chance creation.
Like the majority, I hope to see Zinny enjoying the game from the bench. A very tough contest can be anticipated and I may well spend an early-season 90 minutes on the edge of my seat, very hopefully seeing the team in red bring three points home to London.
Interesting news @7 C100. I’m not sure that there will be a return ticket at the end of next season.
Thanks for the kind words, all. As I mentioned in the preview, I had Timber in and Zinny out right up until Arteta’s press conference today, although, to CER’s point @1, reading the runes of those is a mug’s game. My thinking was that Timber would get the nod ahead of Calafiori as it was the Dutchman who came on during the Wolves game, and that Arteta would have ‘blooded’ the Italian if he intended to start him against Villa. With doubt over Timber starting on Saturday, I agonised over whether Arteta would start Zinny and sub on Calafiori, or throw in Calafiori for a debut from the off. It’s a toin coss, and probably one decided by the bigger tactical problems to solve than just marking Bailey.
C100: Enjoy the trip and what will no doubt be an excellent pre- or post-game meal in curry land.
Fine preview Ned
I am in the opposite camp to most, as i fully expect the same starting line up as last week, with Zinchenko keeping his place, and being subbed mid 2nd half for Timber.
Calafiori may get some minutes late on if we are ahead, and need to shore up the backline.
We made some alarming misplaced passes in defence and midfield last week, which fortunately weren’t punished, and hopefully that early season rustiness has been eradicated by another clear week in training.
Unai Emery is clearly hell bent on proving Arsenal wrong in letting him go, and those 2 wins last season would have given him immense satisfaction.
He has proven himself a master tactician in the big games, and let’s not forget Villa also completely outplayed and beat Man City at home last season as well.
So this promises to be a cracker of a game.
I wouldn’t be unhappy with a point, and if we can take all 3 it would be a real bonus.
Also good to see the under 21’s continue their winning start to the season with an impressive 3- 1 win away at Wolves.
Nwaneri again wasn’t in the squad, so i expect to see him on the bench against Villa for the 2nd week in a row.
Sounds like Viera is off to Porto on loan. Suggests that Nwaneri is in the first team plans, possibly as the main backup to Odegaard.
Very fine preview, Ned…as per usual.
It’s quite simple, actually.
We are the Arsenal.
They are CNUTS.
Proceed accordingly.
MCMBD
Interesting article by Adrian Clarke on Emery v Arteta and Bailey v Zinchenko last season.
https://www.premierleague.com/news/4091272
Adjustments are certainly needed and it will be very interesting to see what Mikel comes up with.
The suggestion many took from Arteta’s presser is that Timber is being carefully nursed because of a small problem he picked up on tour. I am therefore expecting and hoping that Calafiori will make the first of many appearances for Arsenal tonight . Zinny’s qualities as an inverted LB do not compensate for his inability to shut down tricky wingers and Bailey is definitely that .
I am not interested in entering a debate about our sales and will not be wound up about Edu but it is worth noting Sepp Van de Berg ( who!) left Liverpool for Brentford for £25 million with a 17.5% sell on clause . He has four appearances for Liverpool. This follows Carvalho following the same path for a similar fee. I’d like to know what sell-on fees we achieve
This article covers a wide period on our sales but avoids most of the silly hyperbole ( don’t like the hopeless Arsenal quote myself) attached to this area . I will leave Holics to decide if this is an area we could improve on .
https://www.football365.com/news/feature-liverpool-selling-van-den-berg-25m-10-sales-hopeless-arsenal-could-never
Excellent Preview Ned, full of great information and sensible prediction.
CER. As you point out, Timber hasn’t played a full competitive match for over a year. After a minor setback, we don’t want to rush him into a start. So, to answer your question about when he will be ready to start, then of he’s not deemed ready yet, I would imagine that a couple more introductions from the bench and a little more time in training should do it. He seems like a sturdy player who had a one-off nightmare injury. If history hasn’t taught us to take his reintroduction slowly then we haven’t been paying attention.
I agree with Clive that I think Arteta might well start Zinny, regardless of the obvious problem he has against top right winger, and seek to tweak tactically to provide him with extra cover. I’d be happy with Calafiori or Timber if either are deemed ready though. It’s nice to have options.
This will be a tough game, with goals from open play at a premium, but i think it’s one the players will be well and truly up for. We are rusty, but so is everyone else, and we have such a strong mentality…
I reckon a win by the odd goal. Maybe a win by 2 if we score from a set piece and defend them well ourselves.
UTA
TTG.
I don’t think comparing transfers is anything like as clear cut as sometimes people make it out to be when they want to further their own point. “If X was sold for £20m then we should be selling Y for £25m” is an argument with limited validity – it’s not wild and unreasonable, but neither does it take into account a huge amount of variables which have a big impact.
I think for a whil we had a bloated squad that made it hard for us to sell well, and we prioritised moving players on because that was best for the actual team and in achieving success on the pitch. Sure, we took a bath on a few deals, but the wisdom of working with the group of players the manager wanted has been amply proved by an improvement in our results which is beyond what any of us expected and beyond what most of us would have thought possible in the time frame. It was barely three years ago that we were struggling to get fourth and bringing the gap to Liverpool and City looked almost impossible.
Now, our squad make-up is entirely different, and this window in particular has seen Edu sell well. If he makes a few more deals at good prices (and reports suggest he is well on this path) then he may well have wiped out our reputation as pushovers in the transfer market in a single window.
Garlick and Lewis also get their flowers, as they’ve been hugely pragmatic to this point, knowing that when the time came they would have contributed to the engineering of a new situation – one where our management can go into negotiations from a position of strength, not of weakness.
That is the key point for me: perhaps there are wheeler dealers out there who could have struck a couple of tastier deals from our perspective from some of the weak positions we have been in, but the key to selling consistently well is far less to do with how wily your negotiators are and far more to do with how well your contracts and squad are handled. If you enter negotiations from consistently strong positions, that is how you’re going to end up with consistently good deals.
I’m incredibly impressed with the way we appear to have turned the situation around, although Edu does need to bring a few more deals to closure this window for us to affirm that with even more certainty.
Gabriel Jesus is injured (groin) and has not travelled with the squad.
Cheers Ned, excellent preview! I very much enjoy reading about the rich history of our club and British football. Loved the piece that Villa Park and Highbury were designed by the same architect.
Today game will be tough. What Benny Blanco said. But it can’t rain forever.
COYG
Two interesting links bt8 @15. and TTG @17.
Without question those goals in bt8’s link will have been carefully reviewed by the squad this week and the errors in each case highlighted for corrective action under similar circumstances. The excellent discussion by the bar’s regulars above over our ‘LB’ slot is the consequence of Zinny’s vulnerability to a speedy winger on two of those goals but there were several other instances of that last season. If Timber is not in need of nursing back or Callafiori is not still getting up to speed with Arteta’s demands, I would start either before Zinny this evening – otherwise we must hope Zinny has learnt his lesson.
The title of TTG’s link is harsh but cannot really be argued against and I do recall TTG making that very case several times over the last few years. The list therein is a painful read. The only straw I can clutch is that things may have changed.
COYG
C100 @20 – Oh dear! That underlines how injury prone that young man has become and how, when Eddie goes, we almost certainly need to bring someone else in who can provide decent backup at CF and RW.
Congrats to Welbz on No 100
TTG@17: A significant problem with comparing transfer fees and Transfermarkt market values for a player relates to how Transfermarkt calculates market value. From its explanation of its methodology: A major factor is the Transfermarkt community, whose members discuss and evaluate player market values in detail. In general, the Transfermarkt market values are not to be equated with transfer fees.
In other words, the Transfermarkt value is the consensus guess of what Transfermarkt users think a player would be worth in an open market, all other things being equal. As GSD and others note, all other things are not equal when it comes to a transfer; each is particular to the circumstances at the time of the player and the selling and buying clubs.
The best way to think of a transfer fee is as the compensation the buying club pays to the selling club for ending the player’s contract and handing over his registration. It is a bargain struck between a willing buyer and a willing seller at a particular moment. So many financial and non-financial factors go into each side evaluating what that is worth to them (and it is not a zero-sum game) that the fee ends up having a distant relationship to the value of a player’s intrinsic ability.
A more interesting article would examine why clubs like City and Liverpool sell Academy players with scant or no experience in senior football for significant fees, whereas we do not. Is it superior negotiating skills? Is there an aura value to a young player coming from an elite club? Or is it something else?
ESR is off the mark. Happy for him!
COYG
I think this blog is universally agreed that the club is very well 4un and its nitpicking to criticise the progress that has been made .
We have very competent management in place across the board but the key to everything is Arteta . My sense is that he is pivotal 5o everything tga5 happens in the club. Ever6 player that is bought and everyone sold .
There are some parts of the Goonerverse who would dispense with his services if he doesn’t win the league this season. They must be mad !- but social media has given everyone a voice even if it would be better if that voice was silent from time to time 😀
Arsenal: Raya, White, Saliba, Gabriel, Timber, Partey, Rice, Odegaard, Martinelli, Saka, Havertz
Subs: Ramsdale, Calafiori, Kiwior, Zinchenko, Jorginho, Nwan
Timber starts
Subs: Ramsdale, Calafiori, Kiwior, Zinchenko, Jorginho, Nwaneri, Trossard, Nketiah, Nelson
Arteta head-faked me. Timber starts for Zinchenko.
Finally got to read – usual top drawer history lesson and fact filled fandango, Ned.
Timber in for Zinchenko the only change from your predicted XI.
TTG@27: Well said. There is a natural arc to a manager’s tenure at any club, as we learned with Wenger, but Arteta’s is nowhere near its zenith, yet.
I briefly and foolishly got sucked into the rabbit hole of a pop-up livestream discussing Vieira’s loan, where the general mood was that this ‘bolt from the blue’ (no! anyone paying attention knew that a loan for Vieira was on the cards) had somehow thrown the club into an existential crisis as it meant we neither had rotation for Saka and Ødegaard nor the cash to pop down to the transfer supermarket and drop Osimhen or Nico Williams into our shopping cart. As you say, madness.
Cheers, Trev. Even if the skipping isn’t so light these days, can still turn cartwheels across the floor.
Seems to me that the biggest mistake in the arguments and accusations about Arsenal’s transfer business is reading them.
Look at our squad now compared to three or four years ago – in terms of age profile, quality, positional balance.
And importantly, more than ever right now, is that we are reportedly in a very healthy place regarding PSR and can therefore spend if the correct opportunity arises. Hard to see on that basis where all the big mistakes have been made.
My 2 cents on the Vieira move is that there is little downside for the club in it. At present, Vieira’s collapse of form and confidence means that he is unsellable. By next summer, he will have had either (i) a spectacular resurrection of both and Arteta can welcome him back to the squad or the club will be able to sell him for more than the zero it would get now, or (ii) he has not and is still worth zero, in which case we are no worse off than we are now.
Just to be clear – I meant the mistake was to read all the usual extreme views on X / Twitter, not the reasoned opinions in this and other sensible blogs.
Forgotten what an absolute cunt of a ref Oliver is.
Got to say, not a great game so far.
Esso knows
This lad MorgannRogers looks a player. Has run through Rice and Partey about three times.
This lad Morgan Rogers looks a player. Ran through both Rice and Partey three times in the first half.
Arteta won the tactical battle and Arsenal won the game. A most excellent three points and a clean sheet away from home to boot.
Such a good result after a real battle that we deservedly came out on top of. Great start to the season so far.
UTA!
Two scores settled.
Even this early in the season, a really important win.
@38 C100, “Got to say, not a great game so far.” – your photo suggests they hadn’t kicked off – your expectations are high. 🙂
That was a big win. A very big win. Great work, to a man.
Remember the feeling in April when they beat us ?
Well we’ve got revenge and three huge points . The side looks undercooked to me but we’ve still got a great win away .
Bloody good day out!
C100@41: Apropos the earlier conversations on transfer dealings, City bought Morgan Rogers from West Brom’s Academy in 2019 for £4 million and sold him to Middlesborough four years later for £1 million plus a 25% sell-on clause. Middlesborough sold him to Villa in February for £8 million plus £7 million in add-ons. So, good, bad or indifferent business for City for a player who wouldn’t get into Pep’s starting XI but is good enough to have a decent career in the Premiership?
Don’t mind if I do on a day we got such an excellent three points
Well in for the half-ton, bt8.
Finished like Leo there bt8
Ned@49 – for City it looks like they ended up about square on the deal. It also shows that they are not infallible. At the same time it rather brings into question the value of some English club academies. This kid looks fantastic and yet largely came through the ‘Boro academy. Jude Bellingham came through the Brum academy. It would be interesting to learn how much individual academies cost on an annual basis, or over , say, a five year period to see how many actually wash their face. I suppose one factor rather muddying the waters would be how to value someone, like Saka, whose value has not been realised externally. Over the last few years we have sold Iwobi, Balogun, ESR and potentially Nketiah for good money. How many can say that?
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