It hardly seems two minutes since Buendia scored an added time winner at Villa Park to rob us of the point that was the least we deserved from that game and we now face Unai Emery’s mob again. It’s first against third with a three point gap and a financially doped predator in between us in second place and yet another must win game! In truth, it feels like every game this season legitimately carries that label.
The Opposition
Villa had a shocking start to the season, taking only 3 points from their first 5 games while scoring only a single goal. However, that’s all changed and they are flying now with 11 consecutive wins in all competitions – exceeding a 111 year record. Moreover, this season they have won 18 points from losing positions in the Premier League – 6 more than the next best team. So, a single goal lead which has been our default late game position of late, would appear to be unlikely to deliver the three points that we need. After their come-back victory against the Chavs at the weekend, we can expect the Villa players’ tails to be up and they will come to N5 confident of taking something from this game.
Last Saturday, in his post-match interview, Watkins who was sent on for Malen on 60 minutes and scored two goals, claimed, with a smirk, that Villa’s transformation from an absolutely hopeless first half outfit to the dominant team in the last 30 minutes, was the result of ‘tactical genius’. The implication taken was that this tactical genius was Emery, but Watkins didn’t actually say that. The addition of Watkins, Onana and Sancho and the movement of Tielemans to the ‘ten’ position seemed to confuse the Chav defence. The putative ‘tactical genius’ himself stated that “a team must be resilient to win a match in the second half with the same players or, with different players”. Note well these words of a true genius!
I have seen it claimed that Emery is a world class coach to whom Arsenal didn’t give a fair crack of the whip. I disagree. At Arsenal he made bizarre team selections, had his teams adopt bizarre tactics and play out suicidally from the back. Watching his teams made my eyes bleed and furthermore he threw several Premier League games to prioritise the Europa League over a very achievable fourth place offering Champions League football, to the benefit of the mob up the road; then having reached the Europa League Final, he presided over an execrable performance in which we were humiliated by the Chavs. As coach at PSG, where the league title is an annual gimmeee by virtue of alleged financial doping and creative accountancy, he managed to finish second. At PSG and at Arsenal, he proved himself incapable of coaching a top team to the top silverware yet in Spain and at Villa he has successfully made middle-grade teams competitive. He’s the footballing epitome of the middle manager who reaches his/her level of incompetence and needs to be re-assigned to a role in which the capacity to wreak havoc is limited.
I am reminded of an observation of former Celtic and Scotland doctor, John Fitzsimons, on the appointment of Ally McLeod (look him up, kids) to the role of Scotland coach. Doc Fitzsimons sat in the dugout alongside the great Jock Stein for over a decade as his team won 9 consecutive league titles giving him an almost unique perspective on football management. On McLeod’s appointment as Scotland coach, Fitzsimons observed, “At Aberdeen, McLeod showed that he can make average players good but can he make good players great?” The answer was abundantly clear at the 1978 World Cup Finals in Argentina from which there’s a clip of Fitzsimons sitting on the bench yawning during a game in which a talented Scotland midfield toiled aimlessly while McLeod simulated a series of tonic-clonic seizures. In a way Fitzsimons’ observation is a variant of the ‘Gus Caesar effect’ described in Fever Pitch (I assume our readers have read Fever Pitch – if not, why not?). I think that observation applies to Emery. As does a propensity to tonic-clonic seizures on the touchline!
Emery’s primary strategy out of possession is a 4-4-2 formation to congest central areas and force opponents wide, employing a high defensive line to shrink the pitch and catch opponents offside with selective pressing triggered by poor touches or back passes, while Martinez plays ‘sweeper keeper’ behind the high defensive line. This formation morphs into a fluid 3-2-4-1 or 3-2-5 in possession, building patiently from the back through a box midfield, often shifting from a controlled, slow build-up to a rapid, direct incisive attack by vertical passes through the lines into channels for fast runners like Watkins and Rogers while overloads are created by wingers moving centrally and full-backs overlapping or underlapping.
Despite this usual approach, I expect Emery to adopt the tactic that has become familiar or indeed, almost invariable from teams visiting TNHOF over the last few seasons: a deep block when we have possession with a nine or ten man defence to stifle our attacks, making rapid breakaway attacks from balls over the top, aiming to preserve a 0-0 scoreline or better still (for them) hold onto a stolen lead until late in the game when they will, if necessary, throw the kitchen sink at us with the aim of winning the game or salvaging a point. It’s become all too familiar and, given the pattern of our last several games with late jitters, exactly what I expect Villa to do.
The Villa team will be very familiar given how recently we have played them. Their glove butler will be the pantomime villain Martinez who will play that role to his utmost. Their defence has been shorn of Cash through suspension due to his fifth yellow card and their attack will also be weakened by his absence. Mings and Torres are expected to remain unavailable and they have no specialist right back cover so it will be intriguing to see how Emery addresses that problem and whom he adds to the backline of Konsa, Lindelof and Maatsen. Kamara also acquired his fifth yellow but will be easier to replace with Bogarde or Onana likely to join McGinn, Buendia and Tielemans in midfield. Upfront it seems likely Watkins will be restored to the starting XI at the expense of Malen with in-form Rogers playing alongside him.
Villa’s recent run has been extraordinary, scoring 27 goals to outperform their xG of 18.66, ten coming from outside the box, three more than any other side. I trust that reversion to the mean is imminent and that Mikel will instruct our midfielders to block attempts from range.
The Arsenal
We seem to have established a new pattern of play over the last four games, indeed in every game since the added time defeat to Villa (have I mentioned that?) bar the dismantling of Bruge. We have dominated first halves, created a barrowload of chances only to spurn most of them with near-misses, feeble efforts or by drawing outrageous saves or goal-line clearances from the opposition. Yet, we have often taken a first half or early second half lead but, critically, haven’t killed off the opposition by establishing the unassailable lead that our dominance and chance creation deserved. Second halves usually begin with similar dominance and missed chances but around the hour mark we seem to run out of steam as, despite our profligacy, or perhaps because of it, all our players have expended massive efforts and several look quite exhausted.
In stark contrast to Villa, Arsenal have scored ONE GOAL from 9.23 xG in open play (excluding penalties) in their last four games. Another situation where we must hope for reversion to the mean. Of course, we must note that four of our last six goals have been own goals courtesy of generous oppositions and that has helped us maintain our position at the top of the league despite our ongoing epidemic of injuries and shyness in front of goal.
The number and, moreover, the clustering of injuries are undoubtedly major factors in generating this pattern of matches. All our automatisms in possession and our defensive understandings are dependent on familiarity and practice while replacements, no matter their individual talents, cannot suddenly reproduce that fluency while players returning from injury can take time to re-establish the groove. At the outset this season, we looked extremely well stocked with quality defensive cover, some said overstocked, but we are now down to bare bones with kindergarten centre backs being considered as potential starters in the bereft right back slot. Before the Brighton game we added Timber and, in the warm-up, Calafiori to the casualty list. I’ve seen nothing official about their injuries or how long they are expected to be out but I’ve seen rumours that both suffered hamstring injuries so that will mean weeks rather than days. On Saturday the return of Gabriel for a 20 minute workshop on defence stabilisation was a timely godsend and hopefully he will have experienced no reaction to his exertions and is fit to start against Villa.
Which brings us to our starting XI. Mikel has key decisions to make at right back, midfield, centre forward and left wing. I would really like to see Rice return to his left ‘8’ position where he can influence proceedings at both ends of the pitch but I think that, if he recovers from his obvious exhaustion at the end of the Brighton game, he will be asked to reprise his performance at right back as I don’t expect either Timber or White to be fit for this game. Mikel is so keen on a right-footed plus left-footed centre back pairing that I cannot see him switching either Hincapié or MLS across to right back. Thus Merino will likely be called upon to play left ‘8’ as I really don’t see Mikel throwing caution to the wind by playing both Ødegaard and Eze together against Villa unless the latter is asked to start from wide left. I expect Martinelli to get that shirt given the battering Trossard took against Brighton. And then there is the $64,000 or £60m plus question. Do we start Gyökeres again in the hope that more game time can bring more fortune, more integration and more confidence through a goal or two? Or do we give Jesùs a chance to lead the line from the start. The latter’s energy and interplay for 20 minutes on Saturday clearly lifted the team and if it were my choice Jesús would start but I expect Mikel to choose Gyökeres again. Hence, I expect our starting line up to be:
Raya
Rice, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapié
Ødegaard, Zubimendi, Merino
Saka, Gyökeres, Martinelli
Villa will come determined to win this game to reel us in, and will, at least in phases of the game, try to throw the kitchen sink at us. If we still have the capacity to transition quickly when we break up their attacks that is when we should strike and where the pace of Martinelli and Saka, and the bull-like, powerful running of Gyökeres may be most productive. I would retain the intricate skills of Trossard, Jesús, Eze and Madueke for the second half if we need to prise open a stubborn defence.
Although many commentators are pointing out that our unrequited Xg means that sooner or later we will give someone a proper pummelling, I can’t foresee anything but a tight, hard fought affair and an angst-ridden end to proceedings. To me, it feels like being another nervy 2-1 to the Arsenal.
Enjoy the game, Holics, if you can, wherever you are watching.
Go win Arsenal!
