So, the moment of truth is upon us. This may sound all very dramatic – maybe even melodramatic – and I expect that a lot of Arsenal supporters are not going to share this emotion: but I feel that it is absolutely necessary for this incarnation of Arsenal that they don’t give up the advantage they have so impressively gained, by virtue of nothing but the merits of their own performance in the first leg of the Champions League quarter-finals. A CL away match against the most decorated club in Europe at their home ground is always a challenging proposition, and there is no doubt a manager as astute and successful as Ancelotti will get his star-studded team to dig deep and perform to the very best of their abilities, individually and collectively, in front of a charged home crowd that must have been licking the damaging wounds to their ego for the last week while dreaming of a record-breaking revenge.
For a club of Arsenal’s pedigree, history of pioneering contributions to football, and impressive record of domestic success, our European campaigns have been laced with poisonous failures, leaving behind a bitter sense of underachievement. We have never won the premium European championship in any of its versions, and even among the second-tier of continental competitions, we have won only two trophies, the last of which coming thirty one years ago in the ‘94 Cup Winners Cup, when George Graham’s famously impregnable back five – Seaman; Dixon, Adams, Bould, Winterburn – demonstrated a defensive masterclass against the high-flying Parma to hold on to a slim 1-0 advantage engineered by Alan Smith playing as a solitary striker in the absence of a suspended Ian Wright. Since then there have been multiple heartbreaks, including losses in finals, and even the greatest Arsenal team of modern times – the peak of Arsène’s marauding Invincibles – inexplicably underachieved in Europe.
However, it is not in the laws of physics that we are all condemned to repeat our past forever. If anything, Mikel Arteta and his players, while being respectful to the greatness of the past, seem ambitiously intent on creating their own history, defining their own legacy. Despite the steadily upward curve of Arsenal’s on-field progress in recent years, it just feels that this team needs a signature success to really convince them of their own ceiling, which I believe is as high as any other club in Europe at this point of time.
Without looking too far ahead, beating Real Madrid over a two-legged tie in a CL quarter-final will definitely provide such a defining moment in the journey of Mikel’s team. Yes, there are no trophies given out for making it to the semis, but given that we haven’t played in a CL semi-final since 2009, just arriving there by overcoming the European might of Madrid will be an important milestone. And once in the semis, there is always the possibility of even the unlikeliest of dreams coming true.
While our famous, and history making, 3-0 home win in the first leg will always be remembered for two magnificent free-kick goals from Declan Rice, the foundation of that performance was built on defensive composure and quality, tactical and positional solidity, and a genuine self-belief while attacking. That performance also demonstrated a growing maturity from Arteta himself, who dialed down the excessive choreography of our attacking play and trusted his players more with their instinctive decision making, albeit within the framework of a meticulous tactical blueprint.
I see that some in the mushrooming world of football pundits had easily explained away Arsenal’s performance and result as some kind of collective collapse of Madrid stalwarts – but like much of football punditry nowadays, I think opining that Modrić-Camavinga-Bellingham-Mbappé-Rodrygo-Vinicius all suddenly had a terrible day together is a particularly lazy theorizing. Ancelotti had set up his team cleverly enough, trying to slow the game down to lull Arsenal into making mistakes, hoping we over-elaborate in our build-up play, and then counter with the speed and technical brilliance of their forward players. On another day that plan might have worked out perfectly for them, but there was a clarity in Arsenal’s approach and an alertness in our game management that turned Madrid’s pretend passivity against them.
Back home at Bernabéu, chasing a three goal deficit, and buoyed by a vociferous home crowd who are hungry for revenge, Real will come at us at a dizzying speed from the first whistle. If we set up over-defensively hoping to protect our three goal lead, we will play right into their strength and the tie can quickly slip away. The best way to protect the lead will be to keep Madrid defensively honest, and play positively with attacking intent. In the match at the Emirates, despite conceding three (unstoppable) goals, Courtois put in a magnificent performance in their goal and if not for some of his extraordinary saves – and a couple of goal-line defensive clearances by his team-mates – we could have scored even more. We should keep that in mind and try to score goals, while ensuring that we do not take unnecessary risks. That is, play just as we played at home, maybe with a few minor defensive tweaks such as Martinelli & Saka sticking tighter to Rodrygo & Vinicius when they have the ball, and Rice (or Merino) ensuring that the space between Kiwior and Lewis-Skelly doesn’t become too open and wide whenever Myles goes on one of his superbly effective runs through the middle.
Our only previous experience at the Bernabéu was of course the famous 1-0 victory in the first leg of the ‘Round of 16’ en route to the final, courtesy of Henry’s iconic goal (and even more iconic celebration) in the 47th minute. Arsenal’s starting back four that day in front of Jens Lehman was, famously, Eboué-Touré-Senderos-Flamini, facing Beckham-Guti-Zidane-Robinho-Ronaldo (“O Fenômeno”), though in midfield and attack Henry was ably supported by Reyes-Gilberto Silva-Hleb-Ljungberg and the rapidly emerging Fabregas. That has remained one of our more memorable CL away victories – the most memorable for me was the merciless 5-1 dismantling of a great Inter Milan side at San Siro in the Invincibles season. I feel that the current Arsenal squad has all the potential to become the most ever successful of all Arsenal teams in Europe. Whereas winning the league remains a very tangible and achievable goal in the near future – mysterious refereeing decisions notwithstanding – though likely not this season, winning the CL can usher in a new era of unprecedented prominence to a club whose current coaching team and playing squad have the rare combination of potential, drive and humility to be the very best.
This away tie can go a long way to inspiring this team towards that goal, whether we end the season trophyless or not. And I believe that we are well capable of beating Madrid over a two-legged tie. This Wednesday evening at the Bernabéu is not going to be an easy experience for the Arsenal squad, Mikel and the coaching team. They will have to live through some very difficult moments, and have to be able to strike a precariously fine balance between tactical preparedness and the ability to address whatever challenges the match situation throws up. They will have to overcome any lingering inner doubts and uncertainties, and will have to make their individual abilities count with efficiency and ruthlessness. Not only the starting eleven, but the bench too will have to play their part to respond to the demands of the closing minutes. All that said, I am optimistic that the best version of this team – even with all the key injuries – have just the right mix of the technical and the physical, the tactical and the temperamental, the determination and the ambition, to create another memorably joyous European evening for all Arsenal supporters.
The traveling faithful will definitely need to play their part, and for those of us who will be watching from all over the world, these ninety minutes might feel like an eternity, an eternity that would hopefully end with a cathartic release for the Arsenal team, the kind of eternity that we would be willing to relive again and again in coming years.
Mikel will likely start with a predictable first eleven:
Raya
Timber – Saliba – Kiwior – Lewis-Skelly
Partey
Ødegaard – Rice
Saka – Merino – Martinelli
Martin has been somewhat sub-par this season in terms of his creative influence and impact, especially since returning from his injury. And even though his workrate and control in midfield has been impactful, he just hasn’t created enough moments in the final third. I am sure that somewhere in the back of his mind he had been nurturing a hope to go back to Madrid with Arsenal one of these days and remind everyone of the player that he always was meant to become. This can be a match where he rediscovers the full range of his creative impetus and his peerless technical abilities. Madrid, needing to attack from the first minute, will inevitably open up the kind of spaces that Saka and Martinelli both thrive in, in their different but complementary ways. An early goal for Arsenal would fully settle our nerves and will create that extra degree of desperation among the Real players that can then be exploited.
Whereas we drew at home on Saturday against a feisty and spirited Brentford side, Real played Alavés away on Sunday, and managed a 0-1 away victory despite Mbappé being sent off in the 38th minute, the solitary goal coming from Camavinga who won’t play against us, as he is suspended. Looking at that starting line-up, Ancelotti rested Modrić, Bellingham, Vinicius and Brahim, while Mbappé and Rodrygo started. I think all six of them will start against us. And even though people made derisive comments about Modrić’s performance against us – for he was effectively nullified by the front-footed pressing from Partey-Ødegaard-Rice – I think he remains a uniquely capable player who can exploit even the smallest gaps or lapses of concentration in the opposition defense to supply his forward line with perfectly placed and weighted through balls. Saliba & Kiwior will have to be at their very best, and the midfield will need to repeat their high pressing performance from last Tuesday and not give Modrić & Bellingham any time on the ball. They played in a 4-1-4-1 formation at the weekend, and that may very well be the dress rehearsal for this Wednesday, with Modrić playing deeper behind Vinicius-Bellingham-Diaz-Rodrygo and Mbappé in the number 9 role. A key match-up would be between Saka and their left back, whether that would be the experienced Alaba or the younger Fran García, who started on Sunday, will give us a clue to the mindset with which Ancelotti will want to chase the game. Saka should find more space afforded to him than he finds in the PL, and if he can make a telling early contribution, Arsenal will be able to find a stronger foothold in the game.
I think a determined and disciplined – but not overly defensive – performance with a degree of ruthlessness in attack can very well see us winning this match 2-1, and winning the tie.
Come on Arsenal!