Let me begin by wishing all our readers a very happy St Totteringham’s Day. Have a blast, mate!
Next up is the Gunners’ final visit to Goodison. The main stands display the classical Archibald Leitch design once so common in British football stadiums. The criss-cross steel balustrades at the front of the upper tier of stands usually with pitched roofs and pediments facing the pitch are so distinctive that British football stadiums were once instantly familiar when seen on TV. In 1899, after building his own reputation as a designer of tea factories in Ceylon and somewhat less fragrant factories in central Scotland, Leitch (1865-1939) was commissioned to build a new home for Glasgow Rangers (*spits*). He went on, despite the first Ibrox disaster of 1902, to become Britain’s foremost football architect.
Before shuffling off his mortal coil in 1939, Leitch designed over 20 stadiums in the UK and Ireland including, as well as Goodison and Ibrox, Highbury, Hampden Park, Pittodrie Stadium, Celtic Park, Dens Park, Tynecastle Park, Rugby Park, Somerset Park, Stark’s Park, Anfield, Ayresome Park, Bramall Lane, Cardiff Arms Park, Craven Cottage, Deepdale, The Dell, Ewood Park, Filbert Street, Fratton Park, Home Park, Hillsborough Stadium, Landsdown Road, Molineux, Oakwell, Old Trafford, Park Avenue, Roker Park, Selhurst Park, Stamford Bridge, Twickenham Stadium, Valley Parade, Villa Park, The Boleyn Ground, White Hart Lane and Windsor Park.
That’s quite a portfolio, I must say! It’s pretty much a roll call of the successful or aspirant clubs of the early twentieth century. Although many of his structures have now been demolished, I make no apology for providing that extensive list which will bring back memories of these lost structures and some now lost venues of the beautiful game for Holics of a certain vintage.
Everton have been revived by the second coming of David Moyes, whom I first saw playing as a gangly centre back who made some two dozen appearances for Celtic (but thereby pocketed a championship medal) before he embarked on a tour of a handful of lower division outfits before re-emerging as the aggressive coach of an upwardly mobile (due to him) Preston North End. In January 1999, his Preston team, clearly by instruction, attempted to kick Arsene Wenger’s elegant team off the park in a televised cup tie – I vividly recall Alex Manninger being robustly bundled into his own net by some northern thug. By the way, we won 4-2 and Preston deservedly received 2 yellows and a straight red during the proceedings.
When Moyes was first appointed to Everton in March 2002, the club had been in decline for over 12 years. In 1990, after a very successful 80’s, Everton were the fourth most successful club in England with 9 First Division titles, 4 FA Cups and a European Cup Winners Cup. However, since 1990, Everton had only won a single FA Cup in 1994-5 and their best league position had been sixth in 1995-6.
I have to observe that George Graham, David Dein and Arsene Wenger should be eternally revered in the Goonerverse for the sliding door moments that led to Arsenal and Everton taking entirely different trajectories from 1988 onwards. Decisions taken at the top of a club can have major long-term ramifications for a club’s success as both we and Everton found in the second decade of this century though fortunately Arsenal’s errors of omission and commission were rectified swiftly while Everton made a series of terrible executive decisions then tried to spend their way out of mediocrity and nearly went bust.
In 2002, Moyes managed to arrest Everton’s decline but the club won no trophies during his 11 year tenure. In his first few months, he removed the very real threat of relegation with a good run of form. Then, in his first full season, he took them to seventh place and won LMA Manager of the Year. However, those first five seasons at Everton were a switchback ride with finishes in 15th, 7th, 17th, 4th and 11th. Everton’s fourth place finish in 2004-5 was their highest since 1988 and gained them a brief entry to the qualifying round of the Champions League – their first and last foray at this level since 1970-71. Everton have never finished in the top four since. However, from their 11th place finish in 2006-7 until Moyes’ departure at the end of the 2012-13 season, Everton always finished between 5th and 8th. Strangely, that achievement convinced Sir Alex that Moyes was his ideal successor. The rest is history though Moyes did subsequently prove his man management and motivational skills again at West Ham.
Since his ‘second coming’ on 11 January, Moyes may have reprised his Great Escape – a trick he has also pulled off twice at West Ham. Prior to his arrival, Everton’s Premier League record this season, after 19 games played, was 3 wins, 8 draws (including a stultifying goalless draw at our place in mid-December) and 8 defeats with 15 goals scored and 25 goals conceded. They were sitting 16th in the league, just one point above Ipswich who were in the drop-zone in 18th place. In this second Moyes era, Everton have so far played 12 games, won 4, drawn 5 and lost only 2, scoring 17 and conceding 12 goals. Everton currently sit in 15th position, on 34 points along with Sp*rs and West Ham, 14 points clear of Ipswich in 18th. They have drawn their last 3 home games and were unbeaten for 9 games until this week’s Merseyside derby. However, Everton are not yet mathematically guaranteed to avoid relegation therefore we can expect the usual Goodison scrap especially after their recent derby defeat.
I was watching that Merseyside derby as I wrote this preview. Everton played the deep block I expect them to deploy against Arsenal, with a 5 man back line, a row of 4 players just in front of them and a single forward patrolling the halfway line. I expect to see that same defence comprising O’Brien, Tarkowski (fortunate not currently to be suspended), Branthwaite, Mykolenko and Gueye with Doucouré and Garner congesting the centre whilst wide-men Harrison and Alcaraz drop back to assist the fullbacks. In the absence of Calvert-Lewin, out with a grade 3 hamstring tear, Beto is likely to get the job up front. On the occasions they broke out of defence, Everton’s midfielders get forward quickly to support him. This may cause our patched up defence even more problems than it did Liverpool on the basis of our showing against Fulham on Tuesday. Having said that, in Everton’s breakaway attacks, Beto had a goal disallowed for a fractional offside and hit a post in another breakaway in the first half hour and he gave the Liverpool centre backs several further problems later in the match. I break out in a cold sweat thinking about a ring-rusty Kiwior trying to contain Beto, let alone Mbappe! Everton had by far the better chances in the first half and Salah got so little joy from Mykolenko that he moved towards the centre of Liverpool’s attack early in the second half.
Other selection options for Moyes, if he feels the need to rest any of the XI he started at Anfield are Young, Coleman and Patterson at fullback (another club with a surfeit of full backs), Keane in central defence and the tricky Ndiaye, who may well replace Harrison, and the rather ponderous Broja up front. For most of this match Liverpool struggled to get through the congested centre but Diaz and Robertson gave O’Brien such a torrid time at right back that Martinelli (our best player by far on Tuesday) and MLS should be anticipating a productive afternoon. In contrast, the centre of Everton’s defence looked pretty secure for most of this game and their big centre backs dealt with crosses very well – I don’t expect Merino to get much joy from high balls into the box. Liverpool’s biggest threat came from curling balls to the far post of the type typically produced for us by Saka, Martinelli and Nwaneri but those big centre backs, supplemented by Pickford’s punching, allowed Everton to handle corners pretty comfortably. The deadlock in that match was broken by a serpentine dribble through the centre of Everton’s momentarily disorientated defence by the execrable Jota – the kind of dribble that we might hope to see from a rejuvenated Ødegaard, Nwaneri or MLS. Sadly, that Everton defeat was another nail in the coffin being prepared for our close to moribund Premier League challenge.
What about the good guys, you say? Well, there are quite a few fewer good guys available than there once were.
With the home leg against Real Madrid looming large next Tuesday, the Champions League looking like our best chance of silverware this season (yes, I know!), and our horrendous injury list, there’s an argument for prioritising Tuesday over this game but we all know that’s not Mikel Arteta’s style and it’s also not really very sensible – Goodison is always a bear pit and physicality is a big part of Everton’s game, possibly even more so under Moyes than it was under Dyche. Furthermore, we really can’t afford to drop points carelessly and expect to retain second place with Forest in fine form behind us. Albeit not what we hoped for last August, a third consecutive second place is an achievement worth having especially when you consider the circumstances.
The key question for our team selection is which defenders are fit to play in a potentially threadbare defence? The loss of Gabriel to a hamstring tear is clearly not only a huge blow to our defensive solidity but also to our attacking threat from corners. Given the absence of Gabriel, Calafiori and Tomiyasu (remember him?) and possible absence of Timber and White also, we may have to put some square pegs into round holes. If we were merely (!) dealing with the absence of Gabriel, our first choice replacement would clearly be Calafiori. In the absence of both we could continue with Kiwior deputising for Gabriel which is likely to be Arteta’s preferred choice. The current cluster of defensive injuries prevents us deploying what is, IMHO, our best central defence option in the absence of both Gabriel and Calafiori. That would see Saliba moving to left centre back, where he plays for France, Timber or White playing right centre back and the other playing right back. On Thursday it was rumoured that Timber may be fit for Everton and, if so, I would expect him to return at right back. An incompletely match-sharp Ben White, even if fit enough to play, is unlikely to start and his fitness has been further compromised by ‘a niggle picked up in training’ forcing his absence on Tuesday.
Applying the philosophy of Occam’s Mikel’s razor, the simplest solution is to play Kiwior in his natural position at LCB alongside Saliba at RCB. KT3 has occasionally played right back for Scotland, and may be an option there if both Timber and White are unavailable. However, Mikel does tolerate (‘like’ might be too strong!) Partey at RB much more than I do – I’m having another cold sweat thinking about Partey, for all his strengths as a midfielder, playing RB against Mbappe and Vinicius Jr! The prospect of KT3 playing there against them is scary enough. Thank goodness MLS survived Fulham’s attempts at decapitation and amputation and we can at least rely on our usual left flank despite the late slip up on Tuesday.
We may have to regard this game as a dress rehearsal for those fringe players who may also have to stand in against Real Madrid. However, while the league remains a mathematical possibility, Arteta will want to focus entirely on this game. Nonetheless, the players – like the fans – will surely have half an eye on next Tuesday’s CL quarter-final tie and will not want to risk joining the queue at the Emergency Room. Personally, I would not risk a player in this game if it might compromise his fitness for Tuesday.
The only other selection question is whether Saka starts. I would prefer that he comes on for the last 30 minutes, or so, to build up his match fitness in anticipation of starting against los Blancos. I would take the same approach to White and possibly Timber if they are not quite fit enough to start this game but have the potential of making the Madrid game.
Thus my selection, assuming Timber is fit to start but White remains crocked or are not fit enough to start, is:
Raya
Timber Saliba Kiwior MLS
Ødegaard Partey Rice
Nwaneri Merino Martinelli
If neither Timber or White is fully fit, I expect Mikel to choose Partey at RB over KT3 and play either Jorginho or Zinchenko in midfield, with Rice moving from left ‘8’ to ‘6’ if Zinchenko starts.
I don’t expect a high scoring game. Neither team has been scoring freely recently and, although they are at home, I expect Everton to play the deep block and breakaway attacks like they did at Anfield. Although we have had some excellent results there, Goodison has frequently proved a real struggle for Arsenal teams and I expect this visit to be a struggle rather than a cakewalk. My fervent hope for this game is that we incur no further injuries and any stand-ins in defence gain confidence from a gritty performance.
The Holic Pound? Oddschecker offers 1-0 to the good guys at 5/1 and 2-0 at 13/2 with 2-1 perhaps your best bet for a win at 9/1. I expect this game to be very cagey and frustrating and I think that a 0-0 draw is a distinct possibility (even with Kiwior at LCB) – you can have that at 7/1 or an equally disappointing but possibly more likely 1-1 draw at 6/1.
The game kicks off at 12.30pm BST and is being broadcast live on TNT1 in the UK. Try to enjoy the game, Holics, wherever in the world you will be watching. Try not to chew the carpet!
